Swisher vs. Dunn
There is all this speculating about trading Prado and something for Swisher but is that really the best available option? We all know Wren is looking for a right handed corner outfield power bat i.e. Pat Burrell but is too poor a defensive player so we've heard zero discussion on him. We all "want" Adam Dunn because like someone said in an earlier post 40 home runs is 40 home runs doesn't matter what side of the plate it comes from. So it seems that we will settle for Nick Swisher even though he is clearly the least potent bat of the three.
Swisher has never hit over .262, never had a 100+ rbi season and the only season he came close is the season he hit 35 home runs and on a moneyball team like the one he was on he should have drove in more runs all things considered.
It should be noted that both Burrell and Dunn have played in hitter's parks the majority of their careers but with all three you will get .250, .380, .480 minimum. So at least go after the guy that's going to produce the most runs for you and that guy isn't Nick Swisher
http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/swishni01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dunnad01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burrepa01.shtml
i'm just saying if you're going to go for piss poor you might as well get Pat Burrell.
0 recs |
29 comments
Comments
if we’re giving up dog shit that won’t do anything for us (one of the 12 utility IFs, one of the phenomenal young arms that get blueballs when there’s more than 6000 people in the crowd), i wouldn’t mind swisher. if its gonna take someone on that little list on the left sidebar of the site (except for cody johnson. and eric campbell), fuck that and bring in KING ADAM
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
by bigjoe on
Dec 27, 2008 7:25 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
isn’t it very eloquent?
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
by bigjoe on
Dec 27, 2008 8:15 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Best thing on here in a while. Particularly the King Adam part; that’s definitely his nickname if he does end up as a Brave.
by cbwilk on
Dec 27, 2008 8:33 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Maybe someday this guy will learn better stats, like perhaps EqA? Swisher’s 2008 was a fluke induced by bad luck. Despite no visible changes in his peripheral stats, his BABIP fell to .251. That’s going to bounce back, and bring his production back with it. So if you discard ‘08, Swisher’s has posted EqA’s of .296 and .299 in his last two seasons. Dunn has produced a .300 and a .299 in his last two years (including 2008), and Burrell’s been at .305 and .295.
And to boot, Swisher can put on a glove without costing you 10-15 runs in the field. It’s far from clear that Swisher is the worst of the three options; in fact, he might just be the best of the three, especially when you bring his contract into the equation.
by tgthree on
Dec 27, 2008 9:24 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Those 10-15 runs Dunn may cost in the field will be made up for by his 40 bombs.
by Bobby Cocks on
Dec 27, 2008 10:34 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Yes, they will be, in part. But Swisher’s offensive contribution is about +20 runs, with a +6 for defense in left field (per FanGraphs). Dunn’s offense is about +35 runs, optimistically, with a -10 for defense. That’s pretty darn close to equal, and Swisher’s set to make about 40% of what Dunn will make.
by tgthree on
Dec 28, 2008 11:08 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
well said.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Dec 27, 2008 10:53 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Even though EqA isn’t my favorite stat…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Dec 27, 2008 10:54 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Dunn
Sucks on the field and strikes out alot but does hit 40hrs…cant remeber the last player on the Braves to do that…Galaraga?
by AlRoBraves95 on
Dec 28, 2008 5:00 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
andruw. uh, 2 years ago.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
by bigjoe on
Dec 28, 2008 5:22 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
wow.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Dec 29, 2008 12:28 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
winnar
Swisher’s offensive production is much closer to Dunn’s than people realize because of two things:
1. Swisher has spent the majority of his career in an extreme pitcher’s park (the Coliseum) and Dunn has spent his career in extreme hitter’s parks (Great American Ballpark, Chase Field).
2. Swisher plays in a league with tougher overall pitching.
And Swisher is a plus defender in left. He hits better against lefties so he would sandwich in perfectly between Chipper and McCann. 2008 sucked but it was mostly due to bad BABIP like you said.
It basically comes down to the prospect price like bigjoe said. Too much and grab Dunn, but if the price is right, Swisher is a perfect fit.
by VictorW on
Dec 28, 2008 7:22 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
hilarious note: even though his BA was somehow lower than francoeur’s last year, swisher’s OPS would still have been the best in our OF.
by a good bit
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
by bigjoe on
Dec 27, 2008 9:33 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Only less potent in power
I do love watching Adam Dunn hit bombs but when comparable I always choose all around athleticism. I think that the three are much closer together total production wise than those numbers show. Dunn and Burrell win in terms of raw power and none of the three are known to be especially clutch hitters Swisher and Dunn are both big OBP guys (excluding Swisher’s ’08) Burrell is not, Swisher is far superior defensively, a switch hitter, more versatile, not a station to station base runner, younger, and likely will be the most affordable.
I think some of our affections toward Dunn may be a bit mislead due to the (Power Hitting Left Fielder) label that has been branded on our list of needs for the offseason. The fact is all three are power hitting outfielders and all are upgrades to the Power production of last year. If we choose Swisher we not only upgrade our power but the aforementioned areas as well.
P.S. I’ve seen Dunn and Burrell hit in Band boxes surrounded by sluggers. But I haven’t seen them cover ground in a bigger outfield with no backlights. I think Swisher hitting in between two all-stars is a more favorable adjustment.
by cirela20 on
Dec 28, 2008 12:53 AM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Gotta disagree with you on Burrell not being a big OBP guy. .367 for his career and a career BB% better than Chipper’s.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Dec 28, 2008 3:28 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Risk
I know this diary is about Dunn v Swisher (and, tangentially, Burrell), but I do want to highlight a key risk with both of them. Both fit the classic Old Player Skill profile, which means both have some risk of rapid decline as they age. So, before people get too excited about Dunn’s light tower power (40 jimmy-jacks, OMG!!!!!1) or Swisher’s OBP, take a deep breath and analyze the risks of expenditures on or long-term commitments to either.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Dec 28, 2008 1:41 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Well, Dunn is 29 and Swisher is 28, so even if we agree with that assumption of a steep decline, I don’t think anybody is talking about having either for more than two or three years. I don’t necessarily agree that there’s a type of player who declines faster than another, but even if I did, I doubt that either is going to fall off dramatically in the next two to three years.
by cbwilk on
Dec 28, 2008 2:09 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Every year matters, because these declines can come fast, when they do. And the difference is that Dunn will cost about $6-10M more per year. Not to mention that Dunn my require at 4th year to sign with ATL, if they’re not the leader on per year salary.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Dec 28, 2008 6:08 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I don’t think Swisher necessarily fits it. Part of the old player label is being nonathletic. Swisher is a lot more athletic than Dunn.
by VictorW on
Dec 28, 2008 7:24 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Yeah
It’s true, although Swisher certainly does not “look” athletic in the field. He huffs and puffs and the OF ground shakes when he goes after a ball.
But yeah, he’s obviously more athletic than Dunn. Is it enough to escape the dreaded OP decline? Who really knows? The whole OP thing is such a moving target.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Dec 29, 2008 12:07 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Smoltz's Beard
Good call on the OBP I obviously missed that, but I still think Swisher’s Bat and glove combined eclipse Burrell’s run production though not necessarily Dunn’s. I say this because somehow Burrell this season hit 33 HR but drove in only 86 runs despite hitting in a more potent lineup in terms of runners on base, 41 point average advantage, and identical strikeout numbers. Hard to explain, but at any rate he, in my opinion is the least ideal choice of the group.
by cirela20 on
Dec 28, 2008 3:11 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
he had ryan howard in front of him driving everyone in.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
by bigjoe on
Dec 28, 2008 3:42 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
well Utley drove in everyone and then anyone he missed Howard drove in…
it would be great if someone had the stat runners not driven in… thats a very important stat, IMO… it shows whether a player is a product of his lineup and enviroment or if he can really drive in runs
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Dec 29, 2008 2:09 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
They could abbreviate the stat....
FAIL!
best defensive shortstop in baseball hahahahahahahahahah (omar visquel)
by mvandonsel on
Dec 29, 2008 3:51 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
what ?
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Dec 30, 2008 1:27 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
They should abbreviate the stat “runners not driven in,” FAIL!
best defensive shortstop in baseball hahahahahahahahahah (omar visquel)
by mvandonsel on
Dec 30, 2008 2:37 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs










