Could the Yankees be a good trade parter for the Braves
by gondeee on Dec 27, 2008 11:12 AM EST
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53 comments
From a post over at MLBTR, there could be some interesting trade scenarios between the Braves and the Yankees. NY Post beat writer Joel Sherman does his own blog-speculating, writing this:
I fully suspect that the Yanks are going to make a trade or two now. Teixeira's presence allows them to make the best deal available for at least one player from the group of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui , [Xavier] Nady and [Nick] Swisher.
Damon, Matsui and Nady are all free agents after the season, and all but Nady have no-trade protection. My suspicion is that the Yanks would want to retain Damon the most for 2009 because of his leadoff skills. All things being equal they would move Matsui since they are trying to improve on defense, and he provides the worst fielding option of this quartet. [...]
The Yanks have some surplus set-up relief to spice up a trade and I do not think it is inconceivable that they could try to do a huge trade that would include [Chien-Ming] Wang, who is two years from free agency. The Yanks would have to know for sure that Andy Pettitte is returning plus, possibly, know that they could get another starter they like.
If they are able to find trades, I think they should concentrate on trying to add two elements: 1) Multi-dimensional players. The Yanks have a wonderful looking starting lineup. But their depth is still hardly inspiring. So they can use a few do-everything kind of guys such as the Angels' Chone Figgins or the Braves' Martin Prado to rest regulars and provide insurance against injuries. 2) The Yanks should emphasize positional prospects. They are really lacking in that area in the upper reaches of their system. For example, the Braves have had a tough time completing deals this winter. They have liked both Nady and Swisher in the past; in fact they tried to obtain Swisher this winter before the Yanks did. Atlanta has three well-regarded minor league center fielders in Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Could the Yanks turn a regular outfielder into one of those prospects?
That's a lot of speculating, but it's also something that had occurred to me after the Yanks signed Teixeira, acutally, even before that signing I thought there might be a desire by the Yanks to move one of those guys. I'm very surprised to see Wang included in trade speculation, and I wonder if this is real or not. Starting pitching is now a strength for the Yanks, so why would they want to deplete it so soon after spending one trillion dollars to add Sabathia and Burnett. That being said, Wang is intriguing as an extreme groundball pitcher, but he's not the ace the Braves seek.
I would be satisfied with either Swisher or Nady, but probably not for the price we'd pay. The Braves reportedly like Swisher. His versitility is valuable as he can play any outfield position and first base, but you have to hope that last year's poorer showing at the plate is an anomoly that he can bounce back from.
We were reportedly in on Nady at last year's trade deadline, but he's not as versitile and his success and power have been more recent additions to his major league pedigree, and there should be a question as to whether he can continue that kind of production. Nady would also be a one year rental.
I would probably prefer Swisher, and if we could nab Wang that would go a long way towards filling the holes in our roster. The question is will the Yankees bite on our "available" players -- Prado, Gorkys, Jo-Jo, Boyer. The Yankees are smart trading partners and usually get good value in return when they acquire prospects.
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“Wang is intriguing as an extreme groundball pitcher, but he’s not the ace the Braves seek.”
Don’t let any Yankees fans read that. WANG HAD MORE WINS IN 2006 + 2007 THAN ANY PITCHER IN BASEBALL
Also, Swisher!
by VictorW on Dec 27, 2008 11:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wang
While it’s true that Wang is a tremendous groundball pitcher, he also has been getting better at getting swinging strikes and Ks. While the numbers are far short of eye-popping, his trendlines are good.
How about a package like Prado, Schafer, Hicks, and KK for Wang and Swisher?
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 27, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Wang's a solid pitcher
It’s just funny how inflated of a perception Yankees fans have of him. And I think Wang would look really good with a stud SS like Yunel instead of Captain Calm Eyes.
by VictorW on Dec 27, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sherman, a NY Post writer, is in fantasyland when he mentions Heyward. In fact, any blogger who suggests the Braves might deal Heyward is in fantasyland. (I hope to God.)
Swisher hit .219 last year. The Yankees got him in a deal for Wilson Betemit. If they want to unload Swisher, we could provide Martin Prado, and Josh Anderson, but no one else. The Yankees might decline and ask for Omar Infante (which would be okay so long as we don’t plan to deal Kelly Johnson). But given the salary Swisher carries, I woud not deal Gorkys or any of our AA lefty starting prospects for him.
Swisher is a switch hitter but he strikes out too much, and last year his OPB dropped from .380 to .332. But Matt Diaz did even worse and we still don’t seem to have a left fielder for much clean-up protection for Chipper, so okay, we’ll part with a utility infielder.
At this point I’d like to see us sign Garrett Anderson. Swisher hits better righty and if he doesn’t snap back to his 2006-7 form he might at least be useful as a platoon piece paired with Garret Anderson, and in centerfield plus add a backup option at first.
If the Yankees would deal Wang it would be because his ankle hasn’t mended properly. Sherman speculates he’ll be a free agent in a couple of years. In other words, they could get him back if they wanted, because I don’t think the Yankees would be very concerned about the ability to re-sign him.. But the Braves should finally learn their lesson and forsake the rental market.
by JimK on Dec 27, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Swisher
Is due for a big-time bounce back. You should see his BABIP, it was stunningly low in 2008. He also plays decent corner defense and can slide to 1B if needed (worry about blocking Freeman when he’s ready, as position battles tend to resolve themselves).
I don’t disagree that Heyward is virtually untouchable at this point, but without looking at the numbers I guess that adding Swisher and Wang would immediately upgrade the Braves by 4-5 wins, if not more.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 27, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
4-5 or five wins doesnt really change anything that means instead of 70 wins we have 75 (arbitrary numbers)
there is no reason to make this move and mortgage our futre by trading one of the 5 best prospects in baseball. If we trade Heyward, id be ok if we got a knockout return… its just not gonna happen..
Althoguh ur absoltuely correct evalauting Swisher’s 2008 w/o looking at his BABIP doesnt give u the clear picture of his future
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Dec 31, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Note
I said (as I’ve consistently said on this blog) that I would not deal Heyward/Hanson and consider them virtually untouchable, so I’m not really sure what you’re responding to.
As for the point about wins, even assuming ATL is only a 70 win team right now (it’s likely more, BTW), Rome wasn’t built in a day. If Wren sees a legitimate way to get to 85 wins, it’s going to be a series of small steps. There are no 10-win players out there.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Jan 2, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the heyward comment was more general based off previous comment
but a series of small moves could (i stress could, it might not) harvest our farm system and then we would be a 85 win team… i dont quite know if that makes sense. But in the end i trust w/e the Braves FO does. they havent made that many mistakes over the years (yes i know they have made some, but they’re right most of the time and thats good enough for me).
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Jan 2, 2009 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it makes no sense to trade for wang. he’s under control for this year, and next, and thats it. and with or without him, we’re not going to contend, so its just stupid to give up anyone of value.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
by bigjoe on Dec 31, 2008 6:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher’s LD% was 20.9% last season, his BABIP was .251. His ISO was exactly what it was in 2007 and he showed his same great ability to take a walk (BB/K, BB% right in-line with career norms). The AVG was a bad-luck driven anomaly which pulled down his OBP and SLG. No reason he can’t be the 240/360/450 player Bill James projects him to be next season. That makes him roughly a 3 win player, better than what he’s being paid to be and an addition worth making.
by 17843 on Dec 27, 2008 12:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I dont think Wren was willing to give up Gorkys for Swisher when he was a White Sox player (because if he did im sure Swisher is in a Braves uniform right now) so what makes anyone think they would do it now? Its absurd to even think this. Im fine with goin after Swisher but not at that price.
Now if we want somebody like Swisher WHY not TRY to get Dunn then? Swisher is NOT bad expensive but he isn’t dirt cheap either. I would be stunned if we gave up Gorkys even straight up for Swisher.
braves#1
by rockybull on Dec 27, 2008 1:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
"Now if we want somebody like Swisher WHY not TRY to get Dunn then?"
Defense.
Plus, Swisher is younger and much cheaper. Also, don’t forget that signing Dunn likely means losing the Braves’ first draft pick, as he’s a Type A free agent.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 27, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
First, Dunn was not offered arbitration and therefore we would not give up a draft pick for his services.
Second, our first pick is protected this year because we pick 7th. All picks 15 and higher are protected.
by BravesFan on Dec 27, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And third
Who really cares about defense. We have a gold glover right fielder and could very well have an exceptional defensive center fielder in Schafer. The Braves defense is outstanding. Their power is not. I’d much rather get a stick in left field than another gold glover.
by Bobby Cocks on Dec 27, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Um, no
Wow, where to start:
1. Defense matters, not just in the aggregate, but also individually, as it determines how many wins a player contributes to the team. Undervaluing defense is the primary mistake most blog posters make.
2. Schafer is nowhere near ready to break camp with the big club, IMO. Perhaps a great spring will change that (although I would question the wisdom of making a decision on 3+ weeks of data, rather than a larger sample size), but even if he does break camp there’s no evidence that he will be “exceptional” in CF on Day 1.
3. Francouer has a nice arm, but according to UZR he was actually pretty bad in RF last year. I think that probably overstates his weaknesses (although I think his plate struggles impacted his OF defense last year), but at best he is an average RF with a bionic arm. His range is poor, and his routes are nothing to write home about.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 27, 2008 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree that Schafer isn’t ready to start the year in Atlanta, but I completely disagree that his defense wouldn’t be exceptional from day one. The kid is insanely good in the outfield.
by cbwilk on Dec 27, 2008 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK
Perhaps you’re right. I’ve never seen him live, but it sounds like you have. (Of course, first person accounts are notoriously unreliable in isolation.) I’d like to hear more about some of the plus factors you see in his CF defense, his breaks, ability to correct, etc. I don’t doubt your assessment or Schafer’s rep, but I’m not aware of reliable defensive metrics for AA. That’s why I said we have no “evidence” to support the instinct.
In addition, I think it would be unwise for Wren to plan for Schafer to play CF for ATL on any consistent basis in 2009. Even if his glove is ready, his bat may not be, and rushing him might have serious consequences.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 28, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Again, in complete agreement that he shouldn’t be counted on to play in Atlanta in 09. He definitely needs more time in AAA and should only be called up when he shows he’s ready.
I don’t know anything about metrics or any of that. I’m a watch the guy play type (which obviously only works if you have the chance to do so). I’ve seen Jordan play a good bit over the last three years and he’s as good a defender as I’ve seen in the minors.
He has the first two requirements, speed and a good arm. He’s one of the best athletes in the system. He puts himself in the right position before the play and makes good reads on the ball in the air. On important thing is that he gets under the ball and catches it, (instead of catching it on the fly) which to me is always the sign of a good defender, Andruw did it when he was so good.
The guy is just a superior defender, it’s one of those things that’s obvious when you see it. Like you said, it’s a first person account (though it’s not in isolation, it’s the general consensus on him) so take it for what it’s worth. I will say I’ve seen enough minor league baseball that you can take my word for it, I know what a good defensive player in the minors, who will be a good defender in the majors, looks like.
by cbwilk on Dec 28, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cool
Thanks for the info, it’s very useful.
I’ve been operating under the assumption that Schafer’s the bait, and Gorkys is the future, but maybe that’s wrong. Schafer’s issue is probably going to be the bat, but plus-plus defense goes a long way.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 28, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no, that assumption was a bit backwards. Both are fantastic players, but Jordan can be a five tool talent, or at the very least a four and a half, with the potential to be a superior defender and a guy who could be a 20-20 player. Gorkys is a great defender too, probably would be the best in any system other than the Braves, but his offensive skill set is different. He projects as a leadoff hitter, with plus speed, whereas Jordan could be a sort of Marquis Grissom type leadoff hitter or a Grady Sizemore type 3 hole hitter (not sure if Sizemore actually hits 3rd for Cleveland, just comparing the two). Schafer is definitely the better player.
by cbwilk on Dec 28, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm....
Not sure I agree there…it’s tough to know what the Braves have in Gorkys, since he’s still developing, although he’s definitely taken a step back (or at least sideways). And he’s just so d*mn toolsy, that I think he could be very special. But reasonable minds can disagree.
Schafer’s bat doesn’t blow me away. He needs to get a handle on his strikeouts before we start throwing out Grady Sizemore comparisons.
Oh, and Baseball America has them 3-4, so it’s not like they’re that far apart. Granted, Schafer’s #3, but he is also closer to the bigs.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 28, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have concerns about JS too
but my concerns are with his split stats rather than K’s. It’s an excuse, but his K’s can be somewhat explained by him trying to hard to prove himself after his return. I just posted a fanshot about this very subject – Fangraphs has a new blog entry comparing Sizemore to Schafer and their AA stats are shockingly similar. I had never thought about the comp before but i’m started to understand it.
Check it out – here
by scstrato on Dec 28, 2008 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s pretty interesting about the stats. I hadn’t even looked at them, I was just thinking about their skill sets and how they look when they play. I got to see Sizemore a little when he was in A ball and Jordan reminds me of him.
by cbwilk on Dec 28, 2008 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sizemore strikes out a TON as well, so the comparisons would be apt there.
by yondaime4 on Dec 28, 2008 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well depends on what we have to give up for Swisher. If its not that much then ok but if we gotta give up Gorkys in the deal then thats absurd to even think that. Defense wouldn’t be that big of a factor for me if we had to give up a top 5 prospect in Gorkys just to have a better defender but NOT the big bat that we need. Sure we get more defense out of Swisher but not as much offense like we would from Dunn. I guess what it will come down to is who is the cheapest to get? Also i heard Braves aren’t interested in Dunn but it doesn’t make alot of sense to me just because Dunn is not that good of a defender and then we interested in Swisher because he would be a good defensive LF but yet not NEARLY as good of a bat as Dunn. So if the front office doesn’t want Dunn because he is a lefty and he doesn’t play defense then it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me that they would want Swisher soooooooo much more just because he is a better defender but not near the offensive threat as Dunn.
braves#1
by rockybull on Dec 27, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher
I think if we deal for anyone it would be Swisher. I think Anderson would be in the deal as he would be better than both Cabrera and Gardner and he is expendable with Schafer and Blanco in the picture. Swisher should bounce back and his numbers should be closer to his career averages than his averages last year. He would be a great option as he can play all outfield positions and 1B. This would allow us to start him in LF or CF and then maybe sign another power LFer or maybe a bat like Hinske or G. Anderson to plattoon with Diaz in left. We could also put him at first after we dangle Kotchman for a young starter. Hell, package Francy and Kotch for a starter, then put Swisher in RFand Prado at 1B…. or just put him if left. Any way you shake it, a switch hitting LF/CF/RF/1B power/OBP bat you can protect between Chipper and McCann that can be had for a reasonable price would be a good pickup.
by bbxxj on Dec 27, 2008 1:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
3 year splits
For anyone who cares
as a LHB: .240/.344/.455
as a RHB: .262/.411/.453
by bbxxj on Dec 27, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Trading FYF and Kotch right now would be at the absolute lowest point in their trade value.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 27, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher, sounds great, but is he the 4 spot man we need? no
will he give us some good stuff yes, but i dont think it gives us the pop we need, yes Swisher gives us depth but we need more than that
by bravesfan1047 on Dec 27, 2008 1:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rushing Schafer?
Before Shafer’s HGH thing he should have been ready by mid year last year. He will at least be ready by mid year this year and maybe win the job straight out in ST. Even if he doesn’t start the year, Blanco can keep his spot warm for him for a few months. I don’t see how that is rushing him. All I was saying is that he gives us a ton of options.
Why not Prado at 1B? He played well there at the end of last year and he proved he can at least not hurt you with his bat.
by bbxxj on Dec 27, 2008 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Schafer
Schafer has less than 300 ABs above high A. He’s not ready for the major league level, IMO. And, it’s not like he’s exactly lit AA on fire. He struck out 30% of the time and posted an OPS under 850.
He’s not ready.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 28, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why not Prado?
1. Prado had a .360 BA on balls in play in 2008. I wouldn’t bet on that for 2009.
2. Prado hit 2 HRs in 2008. I prefer more power at 1B.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 28, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher and Nady are not worth any of Shafer, Gorkys, and DEF not Heyward.
they need a utility type player give em Prado and Blanco for CF. Keep Anderson.
If we trade for a pitcher I really would rather them make a trade for a top of the rotation kind of guy thats not on everyone’s radar. someone young like:
Paul Maholm
Jesse Litsch
Shaun Marcum
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
yea none of those guys are Zack Greinke but they all are young with high upsides as #2 possibilities basically another Jair.
I personally like Marcum but thats just me. Maholm would be nice as he would give us a lefty. Give me one of those guys and i dont mind Vazquez being our #1 cause you have some serious talent coming behind him then our rotation looks like this
Vazquez
Marcum/Maholm
Jair
Campillo
- Starter
I believe that right there gives us a solid rotation. Campillo is being underated by alot of people. He was tired halfway through the season because he had already pitched in another league then came right to Spring Training then pitched the regular season. so i have no doubt he will be good for another sub 4 era.
After that you have some other young guys who could step in the #5 spot. i personally would leave Hanson at AAA for a little bit just so we dont really rush him to the majors. If he tears up AAA then bring him up.
Towards August we get Hudson and being able to slide him into the #6 slot will be good for him coming out of surgery and it will allow some rest to be taken by the younger guys towards the end of the season. if we go to the play offs great! if not we have a solid young pitching squad around Jair, NEW GUY, and Hanson. After that 2010 possibly brings Locke and Roghbrough
by drumzalicious on Dec 27, 2008 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Marcum's an injury risk
He blew out his elbow so fast because of his bad mechanics. I like Slowey though. The problem with young, solid pitchers like these is that they cost just as much as Greinke because you get 4-5 years or so of solid production with upside vs. the 2 awesome years you’ll get from Greinke.
by VictorW on Dec 27, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Injury Risk?
You mean injurED, right? Didn’t Marcum have TJ near the end of the season and will miss all of 2009?
by scstrato on Dec 27, 2008 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this is a correct statement.
trust me on this, i had him on like 3 fantasy teams.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
by bigjoe on Dec 27, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
SPs
Had typed a whole response to your SPs but the Web ate it. So, bottom line, yes on Slowey (though I doubt he’s available). Maybe on Baker, depending on the price. No on the others. Despite their superficially good ERAs each has serious problems, like low K rates, high HR rates, or both.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Dec 28, 2008 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher is a Solid fit
Though he seldom hits for a successfully high average, he brings a lot more to the table. Excluding last year he is a very high on-base percentage he’s walked 80+ times in 3 strait seasons and hit 24 HR in a down year. Also he’s never hit behind a switch hitter like Chipper before, though granted it’s a lesser 1-2 punch than Chipper and Tex it still presents a similar problem when pitchers want to pitch around him. He likely would play left field and backup in center because Anderson probably wont be the player the Yankees ask for with Damon already in the lead-off spot.And this shows the versatility that Bobby Cox loves so much.(I might die if Omar Infante ever makes another start in left field.) Knowing that he can play all of the OF + 1B gives us the ability to make Infante the full-time infield backup and perhaps trade Prado as well to ensure we get a pitcher. The I think it would definitely be alright to part with either Gorkys or Schafer but not both, and the starters your listing are completely irrelevant as none of them play for the Yankees!
The only thing that makes me believe it’s a little far-fetched is that the Yankees just acquired him, would they really trade him again before he plays his first game?
by cirela20 on Dec 27, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And Seriously a six man rotation! WIth HUDSON as the Six, are you kidding?
by cirela20 on Dec 27, 2008 3:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
the reason hudson is the 6th is because of the fact he would be coming back from injury and therefore would still be getting re aquainted.
of course as he becomes more solid you pull him up in the rotation. im not saying to go in to 2010 with him as a #6 by any means. i was saying it as a precaution to preventing further injury to his arm. thats all not doubting his pitching ability by any means
by drumzalicious on Dec 27, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
still no way
MLB minds are speculating going back to smaller rotations, there is no way Bobby would ever consider using 6 men and taking innings and starts away from whoever our ace will be. Limit Hudson’s innings, yes, however you must use him to replace one of the prospects who currently occupies a spot. Also I do like Maholm as much as the next guy but he’s only an ace by default because he plays in Pittsburgh. I don’t think he’s comparable to Vazquez or Jair in either potential or stuff, solid #3 though.
by cirela20 on Dec 27, 2008 4:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yea i wasnt really saying to use him as an ace. i was saying he would be basically another Jair. a young #2/#3 starter. and he is a lefty something we dont have at the moment
by drumzalicious on Dec 27, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t count on Hudson pitching for us next year. Next Aug/Sept would be the ideal situation if everything goes according to plan, but sometimes that isn’t the case. TJ recovery is a lot of work and rehab timetables are often pushed back. Even if he is healthy to pitch by Aug/Sept pitchers often need several starts to start to pitch like their old selves. Also, the title of this blog post is “Could the Yankees be a good trade PARTER for the Braves” instead of partner. Just an FYI.
http://www.whensidslid.com
by garriscp on Dec 28, 2008 9:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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