Jeff Francoeur A Puzzling Case
by NIteowl049 on Dec 23, 2008 1:49 PM EST
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PrintJeff Francoeur seemed to have it all going his way before the start of the 2008 season. He had hit 48 homers and driven in 208 runs combined in the 2006 and 2007 seasons.
By the end of April of the 2008 season Francoeur was hitting .277 with 3 homers and 19 RBI's. Those numbers had him in line to hit 18 homers and drive in close to 100 runs. At the end of May his batting average had dipped to .236 for the month but he hit 3 more more homers and drove in 14 runs for a total of 6 homers and 33 RBI's and still in line for a 100 RBI season.
It all unraveled for Jeff in June and July when he hit .206 in June and .220 in July. In those two months he hit a total of 3 homers he hit 3 homers and drove in only 14 runs.He had driven in 19 less runs in June and July than he had driven in during April and May.
In August and September he would hit only two homers but did drive in 24 runs. He hit .206 in August and .286 in September. June 28th was the last day of the season in which he was hitting over .240.
His power numbers dropped sharply from the 2007 season with his homers going down to 11 after having 19 in 2007. He had 34 fewer RBI's dropping from 105 in 2007 to 79 in 2008. His batting average had dropped from .293 to .239 and his on base percentage had tumbled to .294 after posting a .338 mark in 2007. His slugging percentage dropped 85 points from .444 to .359.
In 2007 he had hit a homer every 33.8 at bats but in 2008 he only hit a homer every 54.5 at bats. Jeff hit .192 in 2008 with runners in scoring position after hitting .341 with runners in scoring position in 2007.
Jeff will be 25 on January 8th of next month so he is still young but if he starts off the 2009 season the way he played in 2008 he may find himself on the bench or back in the minor leagues unless he is traded during the winter.
Hopefully Jeff can put the 2008 season behind him and hit like he did in the last month of the season. Jeff has seen his home run numbers drop from 29 in 2006 to 19 in 2007 to 11 in 2006.
After having success in his first three seasons it will be interesting to see how Jeff plays in the 2009 season. This is one fan rooting for him to be Comeback Player of the Year in 2009.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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he needs to determine what kind of hitter he is
I don’t mind him having less walks than Corky Miller if he were to hit 30HR/100RBI. He can aspire to be a not-as-good-as-Vlad type stats and that’s fine.
or he can hit .300 and hit 20HR like 2007 and that’s fine too.
The problem is that he broke in and was “the natural”, then he wanted to be a high-average hitter, then he wanted to be a slugging “country-strong” hitter ….
just make up your mind!! that way if we need a power hitter, we’ll go and sign one. or if we need a high OBP guy, we’ll go and sign one. but the problem is that Francoeur has identity crisis and now we need to find someone who hits for power AND has high OBP
blaaaaa
Speaking of Corky Miller
Corky MIller made Jeff Francoeur seem like Ichiro Suzuki. Jeff at least hit better than .083 with Miller having 5 hits in 60 at bats. Over a full season he would have had 40 hits. The Braves paid Miller $400,000 last season which is how much the minimum rookie salary is for 2009. The Braves got what they paid for. Now with David Ross they have a hitter who hit 17 homers two seasons ago backing up Brian McCann. Francoeur is one of my favorite Braves and I hope to see him circling the bases in his home run trot about 35 or 40 times in 2009
Can I have some of what you're smoking?
35 to 40 times? He’s never hit more than 29 in any professional season.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 23, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
One more thing on Miller
Whenever Miller came up to bat last season I had the feeling that this is not going to turn out good and 55 times out of 60 it didn’t turn out good. I also felt that way when Francoeur came up to bat with men on base and he too would grab some bench after he batted most of the time.
Find a new puzzle
Really, there’s no mystery here: a minor-league career OBP of .328 followed by .312 in his first four major-league seasons.
The Braves rushed him and got lucky in 2005. They should have dealt him at peak value.
He’s not finished, but he needs to learn to take a walk, and he can’t learn that in Atlanta.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
this
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 23, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. His poor minor league statistics did not warrant a trip to the big show. He should have spent more time in the minors working on things. The fact that he was somwehat successful with his swing in 2005 only made things worse for him.
This just seems like specious thinking to me. Now that he’s fallen on hard times it’s easy to look back and say he shouldn’t have been called up. But this never came up when he was doing well and wouldn’t come up now if he hadn’t have done poorly.
He did well enough in the minors to get called up (I saw him play in AA about two weeks before he got called up and he looked ready to me) and he was successful for a good while after getting called up. Looking back later and saying he shouldn’t have been called up seems ridiculous. It’s evident now that he probably could have used more time in the minors, but it took years for that to be an accurate judgement, so there’s really no basis in saying that calling him up wasn’t the right move at the time.
because the braves never make mistakes
jim callis:
5. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers
Just one reason the Braves wish they could undo their Teixeira trade.
by son.of.sourman on Dec 23, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, that 4.6 BB/9 in a whopping 45 IP above A ball really is cool.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 23, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks man.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 23, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
I understand hindsight is always 20/20 and Francoeur was paid a big bonus to sign and teams tend to want a return on their investment sooner rather than later, but his minor league stats and approach to hitting dictate he may have still needed more seasoning. With that being said, more minor league at-bats does not guarantee he would have worked out his flaws and improved his approach to the plate.
I didn’t know this was an argument. I simply added there is no telling if he would have improved with more time in the minors, although it does seem like he was rushed to the majors without working out obvious flaws in his batting approach. As it stands now, he’s a below average right fielder.
Below average hitter (right now). He is fantastic in the field.
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 23, 2008 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
I somewhat agree, but if we had a decent center fielder then his range wouldn’t matter.
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 23, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
All conversation is technically argument. If you have a point and I have a point and there’s a difference in those two points then we’re having an argument. It doesn’t have the negative connotation that ignorant people have applied to it over the years.
And nobody’s convinced me that any of this would have come up had he continued to be successful.
"But this never came up when he was doing well and wouldn’t come up now if he hadn’t have done poorly. "
Well, I don’t know who/what you were reading, but it has been very apparent for quite a while (yes, even in 2005, I was very worried about his batting eye) that Francouer’s path to success was very rocky.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
Hoping Not Expecting 35-40 Homers
I didn’t mean to make it sound like Francoeur would hit 35-40 homers. It was more wishful thinking than anything else. I know the Braves need to get homers from someone with Blanco hititng only one last year and Franco hitting 11 so it is easy to see why the outfield didn’t hit many homers.
Baffling...
Why anyone ever thought Jeff Francouer would be anything special is beyond me. 11 BB in 257 AB during his breakout rookie campaign told me all I needed to know about his future: as soon as pitchers realized his reckless approach at the plate, everything would collapse. His upside is limited to something like his 2007 season, which is basically average. I’m not saying we should cut him or trade him or anything like that, because that’s just not worth it either, but he needs to be on a short leash if he starts to fail like he has more often than not at the ML level.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
heres a fun fact. if he chose clemson over the braves, we would have received the 23rd pick in the 2003 draft. with that pick, if we were desperate for a corner OF, we could have taken carlos quentin.
or you know, if we wanted a pitcher, we could have grabbed chad billingsley. thanks jeff.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
It's all mental
Once he learns to tune out the haters, he’ll be fine.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
all of you are saying HE’S GONNA REBOUND AND HAVE A GREAT YEAR…any evidence for that? or is it just GUT INSTINCT and ignoring what he’s done at every level of professional baseball? he hasn’t cracked an OBP above .340 and a OPS above 850 since rookie ball. he still strikes out too much, doesn’t hit for enough power, and doesn’t walk enough.
jeff francoeur is mike kelly with more playing time on a worse team.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
Top 5 in outfield assists for the past three years
OH! Buuuuuuuuuurn!
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
Dude give the guy a break he was fantastic as a rookie and has always been solid til last year. He worked so hard on gaining muscle to hit home runs before the 08 season. What happened is he wasn’t knocking them out, he got frustated, and began swinging for the fences. Somebody will calm him down and he will go back to trying to hit for a high average. Also as strong as he is the home runs will come.
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 24, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
tp is working with him this off season, unlike not grabbing a bat till spring training to bad mike kelly didnt pan out. when he was with the braves i sent him a baseball card to sign he sent it back the next week i got some others that way jose oliva javy lopez dave justice man that was awhile back im getting old
maybe wining a batting title and mvp might help him as a batting coach. i have full faith in him. now go ahead and flame me
i wont be overly mean, but just becuase he won a battign title and an MVP (and if you look its very questionable whether he deserved that MVP or not), does not make him a successful coach… A majority of good coaches were never successful in the big leagues at all (not saying those are related by ayd causal relationship but they are correlated)… I dont know if TP is a good coach, but judgin by the fact that many of our hitters seem to struggle in areas that a hitting coach should correct, or the fact that there was word that he tol KJ to be more aggressive and stop taking so many pitches (when by all accounts taking pitches is gerenally a successful approach, i.e. the Red Sox lineup, or Chipper). So does TP know how to hit, apparently, but he may not be able to inaprt his knowledge on to other ballplayers.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
i always find it interesting that people place so much emphasis on walks… dont get me wrong when evaluating players the first thing i look at is their ability to get on base… its very important… but to say a guy wont suceed just because he cant take a walk.. there are tons of guys who are elergic to walks and are successful.. Vladi, Pudge, pedrioa, Soriano, and Ryan Braun…. i know theres guys have different skills sets and all namely they all have power (for the most part, maybe not pudge).
I guess im just looking for why everyone (inlcuding myslef to some point) feels this way
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Guys who become successful big league players without decent BB to K ratios are the exception, not the rule. Francoeur strikes out 3-4 times as much as he walks. Pedroia and Vlad are closer to 1 or 1.2 K’s for every walk. Braun and Soriano are what you’re talking about and they can hit for extreme power. For every Braun and Soriano, there’s tons of guys who have failed with the same approach and you can name a dozen guys who are successful with far superior plate discipline. I’m fine with Frenchy being a league average corner outfielder but he just needs to stop thinking he’ll turn into David Wright or something.
Vlad has a career OBP of .389
Pedroia has a career OBP of .369
Pudge is a catcher with other skillsets.
Soriano career OBP .329 and averages 36 hrs and 33 sb per 162 games played for his career.
Braun career OBP .350 and averages 44 hrs per 162 games played for his career.
Francoeur .312 career OBP and doesn’t show much power or sb ability.
There really is no comparison here.
pretty much...
as far as I’m concerned, Francoeur is best left by the side of the road. Anyone who thinks he’ll suddenly start producing is either very stupid or much smarter than I, because I don’t see it. Doesn’t hit for average, doesn’t walk, doesn’t play a premium defensive position, doesn’t have spectacular power, doesn’t run well – hell, you name it, other than throw, Francoeur does nothing well.
by BraveBronco0121 on Dec 24, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
I believe in 07 he hit 293 and in 06 he had 29 home runs. He also won a gold glove in 2007 so he does get the job done. He is only 24 thats the thing you have to remember.
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 24, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
and everyone knows no one has ever gotten a gold glove that didnt deserve one
alsou fail to mention the 29 HR came with a 260 AVG and his 293 AVG came with 19 HR… you cant pick and choose stats fro individual years
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Rafael Fucking Palmeiro won a gold glove at 1B in a season where he only played 28 games there. They don’t mean shit.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 27, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Ok but he still has a rocket arm and is a young kid w/ a great work ethic it’s fans like you guys that won’t get off his back for 5 seconds and let the kid play!!!
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
Look i punctuated the sentence happy bigjoe
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
the same great work ethic that required him to bitch like a 4th grader when he got sent down to AA work on his horrid hitting? and he may have a ROCKET ARM, but he’s a below average fielder. thats why he’s a “right fielder”, not a “right thrower”
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
no i was refering to the great work ethic that gained him 20 lbs of muscle last year, i would bitch too if i started like 300 straight games then all of a sudden just got sent down to AA not even AAA, AA
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
you would bitch about getting sent to the minors if you were struggling so badly that your OPS was under 600 for the middle 2 months of the year, when you were rushed to the majors to begin with and didn’t even get all the seasoning you should have?
and putting on 20 pounds of muscle mass in 4 months is nothing. i’ve lost 20 pounds in 2 months and i spend my days playing my xbox.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
ur absolutely right and i wasnt necessarily comapring Frenchy to those players (if u notive i didnt mention his naem, althgouht i do realize its under a thread dedicated to Francouer), i was more questioning the assetion that you cannot succeed without the ability to take a walk… i answered my question and VictorW confirmed it
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
“you cannot succeed without the ability to take a walk”
not according to vlad
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 25, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
vlad guerrero has never struck out 100 times in a season. also, his career low in walks is higher than francoeur’s career high.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
also, i don’t know what you’re trying to prove there. if you wanna keep up with the vlad guerrero comparison, in his year 24 season, he went for .345/.410/.664. with more walks than francoeur has ever had. and homers. and RBI. and less strikeouts than he’s had in any full season.
are you gonna keep bringing up stupid comparisons for our below average right fielder?
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
for a guy whos wife looks liike this how are you gonna trash him and give him no props what so ever
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
"you cannot succeed without the ability to take a walk"
not according to vladby ATLsportsfrk on Dec 25, 2008 6:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions 0 recs
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
I compared one aspect of his game to vlads
by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
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