How the Rafael Furcal signing works for the Braves
by gondeee on Dec 16, 2008 9:38 PM EST
in Braves Related Free Agents
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PrintThere's been a lot of positive reactions from Atlanta fans about Rafael Furcal returning to the Braves, but then, many Atlanta fans are pretty sentimental for their old star players, especially ones like Furcal who grew up in the Braves system. There have also been some fans who don't like this signing, seeing it as a departure from the Braves stated off-season goals of an outfielder-clean-up-hitter and starting pitching. Both sentiments are to be expected, and neither are really wrong.
The Braves have done nothing but try to accomplish their stated goal -- with little success -- but they are still only one-third of the way there, after the acquisition of starting pitcher Javier Vazquez from the White Sox earlier this off-season. So they remain two critical moves away from checking off all the items on their off-season shopping list, and this is where we have to ask, is the Furcal signing a departure from that shopping list or just a different means to the same end.
We all know they couldn't agree with San Diego on a deal for Jake Peavy. We all know they tried but couldn't sign the free agent ace they coveted in A.J. Burnett. Hitters names have been thrown around all off-season from Jermaine Dye to Ryan Ludwick to Rick Ankiel, but that is not the additional bat we find ourselves with. Furcal is not exactly an outfielder and not exactly a power hitter, but in Furcal we get a major league talent and a proven commodity who can take over at short if Yunel Escobar is traded or take over at second base if Kelly Johnson is traded, and either one of those trades is the only way the Furcal signing really works for Atlanta.
There is early discussion about moving Kelly Johnson back to left field, but that doesn't solve this lineup's need for a cleanup hitter with power, and it's certainly not another middle-to-top-of-the-rotation starter.
What the Braves now have is the ability to trade away one of their middle infielders for one these other stated parts without losing anything in the field or at the plate. If you thought there had been a lot of trade rumors so far this off-season, you haven't seen anything yet. I imagine the rumors will be flying all over the place now that the Braves have two clearly tradeable major league commodities. With the Braves also possessing two major league shortstops, that leaves at least one team without someone to fill the six-hole in the field. Frank Wren must turn Escobar or Johnson into at least one of the pieces we need, or else signing Furcal was a waste.
We could probably have a 24-hour debate on whether or not Kelly Johnson is a good fit in left field, but there's virtually no way Kelly suddenly becomes a cleanup hitter with above average middle-of-the-order power. That means we still have holes on this team, big holes that can't be compensated for by the speed and run-scoring ability of Furcal alone. I like both Escobar and Johnson, but we have to spin one of those guys into power hitting or power pitching; and I'm actually not opposed to spinning both of them into what we need, though I may be in the distinct minority of Atlanta fans who think that Martin Prado is a perfectly acceptable replacement at second base. But let's worry about trying to trade one of these guys before we worry about trading them both.
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Chipper To First
With all the talk of what to do with KJ or Yunel there has not been mention of moving Yunel to third and Chipper to first. Yunel could have the potential to develop into a 25 homer hitter as he puts on more muscle. Chipper has ruled out first in the past but could be persuaded if he gets the $$ and contract extension he is looking for. This would free up Kochman in a trade to obtain a right hand bat for the outfield.
Just a thought.
by MONEYFORNOTHING on Dec 16, 2008 9:53 PM EST reply actions
Moving Chipper to first would actually be harder on his feet than playing at third. I very much doubt that Escobar will develope that much more power. He hit 10 home runs last year and should average about 15 home runs a season over his career. I really like Kotchman at first. He doesn’t have the power that you would like in a first baseman but he has very good glove, and last year was his first season that he got over 500 at-bats. He should get to around 20 home runs a season for his career. Kotchman doesn’t have that high of trade value. Most teams look for a first baseman that hits 30 home runs a season and he isn’t that.
I agree on the potential of injury to Chipper if moved to first and I do like Kotchman’s upside and contract situation. I thought he was a good return on the Tex trade given the situation. I would prefer to keep him but in the world of “what if” and potential surprises from Wren it’s at least worth visiting the topic. If we call 2009 a rebuilding year with the younger guys and bring up the pitching/outfield prospects we have and keep a solid infield with Chipper/Yunel/Furcal/Kotchman we could be in excellent shape for a run in 2010.
by MONEYFORNOTHING on Dec 16, 2008 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
gondeee, does this mean you think that the Braves’ talk of moving KJ to left field is just posturing? Because it isn’t the fans that are saying KJ should move to left; it’s the organization itself…
It’s people saying that people in the organization are saying Kelly to left. We’ll have to wait and see when Frank Wren is actually asked that question directly. But I would imagine that anytime a team brings on another player at a position that is already occupied, the team never says, “oh, yeah, we’re gonna trade someone to make room,” they put the most PC spin to it just in case they can’t make a trade.
KJ in LF and other thoughts
Kelly Johnson would be an acceptable option in LF IF the pitching staff is solid enough top to bottom to win without middle of the order production from that position. I’ve actually stated that his best role for this team IS in left field as opposed to 2B.
A team that is attempting to build with solid pitching needs solid glovemen all around the diamond, especially in the middle infield.
Which brings me to the next point. Wouldn’t we be wiser to sign Orlando Hudson as a Gold Glove caliber 2b as opposed to signing Furcal, a SS, and moving him there?
Major League Baseball is continuing to evolve from the PED age and move back to a pitching and speed game. The wisest teams, (translation-successful teams) will be on the cutting edge of that transformation.
One of the wisest moves of any team this winter has been the Phillies signing of Ibanez to replace Burrell. Higher average, fewer strikouts, better base runner, better defense and in THAT park Ibanez will see his power numbers rise.
The competition in the division have made shrewd moves and the Braves have to answer those moves with smart ones of their own.
by Mike de La Hoz on Dec 17, 2008 2:28 AM EST up reply actions
You lost me with the Ibanez playing better defense claim
by get swoll yunel on Dec 17, 2008 3:32 AM EST up reply actions
That was a terrible signing, and Phillies fans themselves agree.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 17, 2008 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
But...
now he gets to hit in a Little League park and play most of his games where you only need a Burrell-class arm! They just need to teach him how to catch the ball. Maybe he has bad eyes like Diaz and they can get him some contacts. I enjoyed the highlights of him trying to catch fly balls; we’ll get to see them more often now that he’s in the NL East.
Can you please elaborate why Kelly is more valuable in LF, because that’s just a ridiculous claim.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 17, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
KJ is more valuable in LF than a Diaz/B. Jones platoon
And he’s better than Frenchy, and cheaper than Dunn and Burrel. But if that happens, and the Braves have, in fact, signed Furcal to play 2B, I’d like to see the them trade for Ordonez and cash. They might be able to sign Sheets, as well. Either way, I don’t see the Furcal signing as a good thing – he’s not as good as KJ or Escobar, or even O. Hudson, who might cost the same (although he might ask for more years). Very curious signing.
Well yeah, KJ probably is more valuable than that horrendous platoon but that’s not what the original poster said. He stated that KJ is more valuable in LF than he is at 2B.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 17, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Ibanez, better defense?
I’m going to assume you’re new around here…either that or your just trying to bait me.
Yes, better defense than Burrell
Not trying to bait you. Ibanez is better defensively than Burrell. It is pretty obvious if you watch him (Burrell) play for a little bit. They don’t call him “Pat the Glove”!!
And yes, KJ is NOT a championship caliber defensive 2B.
I stand by my comments.
by Mike de La Hoz on Dec 17, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
LMFAO
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/
go to the left column, scroll down. you will NEVER see burrell do anything like THAT
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
Patience
While Kelly Johnson is not the clean-up hitter we desire, neither is Rick Ankiel or some of these other names that have been thrown around in trades. Dunn would fit the bill, but Wren is not interested. What this signing does is upgrade our team for next year because KJ will give us better production than any of our outfield spots from last year. This move makes us better, and it allows us to be patient and wait for the right deal. I think we will make a trade at some point, but we should not be in a hurry to make a move.
I like a quicker and scrappier team with good defense if our pitching is solid. Sure we do not have an ace, but we have talent and potential. We need a young guy to step up, and we need some better luck with the health of our rotation. I do not think any of the pitchers left are a suitable answer. Let’s be patient, it’s not like we are putting a talentless team that has no chance to win on the field. Going into the season with lower expectations may be a good thing after last year.
I agree
And something else that should be noted is that while KJ isn’t going to hit 35 bombs a year he would be a productive and CHEAP option. That would leave us with more money to spend on pitching. Also the fact that our offensive production would likely go up with the presence of a natural leadoff guy. Like you said, Ankiel and some other COSTLIER options wouldn’t produce enough more than KJ to merit their salary.
Also let’s not forget that Frenchy may return to form and hit 25 homers himself next year.
Barry Bonds
is still available. We could sign him to bat clean-up.
"Have you ever had your heart broken?"
"Yeah, when we lost the pennant in '87."
personally...
i h8 bonds with all my testicles, but he would put people in the stands and be a proven bat. i am not so sure he can still move enough to play left field. it seems to me that bonds is a dh or nothing.
i still stand by my guns and say trade francoeur+ others for a #1 or #2 starter and throw 8 mil to smoltz. then fill the void in right with abreu at 2 yr/28-30mil. imo, with the injuries popping up like wildfire in the past for furcal and chipper, it’s not the worst idea in the world to convert kelly into a “super-utility” type, such as derosa (look what its done to his stock). keeping kelly around when furcal or chipper goes down to fill the void at 2nd, and plugging in diaz in left is much better than asking prado to do the same because it keeps prado’s role where it should be: as a bench player.
here’s some rosterbation for you:
starters
furcal- 10 mil
kj
chipper
abreu- 15 mil
mccann
escobar
kotchman
schafer
rotation
greinke (pipedream, but someone like him otherwise)-5 mil
smoltz- 8 mil
jurrjens
vazquez-11 mil
campillo/hanson
pen
soriano
moylan
gonzalez
o’flaherty/logan
acosta
boyer
bennett/carlyle
bench
diaz
blanco
prado
infante
ross
this team competes, and does it in the 45 mil. budget set aside from the first of the offseason. it cuts ties with our biggest weakness (francoeur) and makes our injury plagued team stronger with strong role players.
I’ll be excited to see what SP rumors are sure to follow this move. This is definitely the best way for us to add an elite SP. I would have expected Furcal to make a decision by now though. This concerns me:
…sources told ESPN The Magazine that the Dodgers’ negotiations with Furcal were gaining momentum later in the day Tuesday. The two sides had talked as recently as 7 p.m. ET.
http://www.whensidslid.com
A forgotten name
Juan Rivera anyone? I could definitely see him producing along the lines of 22-26 home runs and 90-105 rbis.
by ChipperTeixeira89 on Dec 17, 2008 12:01 AM EST reply actions
If it's Furcal/Escobar up the Middle and Kelly in LF...
I think Wren should still try to trade for Rick Ankiel. I know he isn’t the prototypical cleanup hitter, but he should have a OPS around .825 with 20-ish home runs and solid defense in CF. If Frenchy craps the bed again the team could promote Schafer to CF and move Ankiel to RF. I won’t rosterbate it all out but the team will have essentially added 2 .800 OPS outfielders and an elite leadoff hitter while only giving up minimal prospects for Ankiel (Medlin or Marek + filler?), relinquishing no draft picks and most likely gaining draft picks when Ankiel leaves in 2010.
by Rafael Belliard's SLG % on Dec 17, 2008 12:19 AM EST reply actions
Assuming Escobar SS, Furcal 2B, Johnson LF
I’m going to assume Furcal is worth as much as KJ at 2B. Superior def, inferior bat.
I’m going to estimate Johnson’s value based on next year’s Marcels projection and his 2005 LF UZR/15. Both are available here.
I’m extrapolating his projected wRAA for more at bats making it 11 runs, making his bat 1.1 win above average. Add in 2 more wins for average over replacement and his bat is worth 3.1 wins.
KJ as a LF: -0.5 for position, +0.72 for defense, +3.1
Total: 3.32 wins
Basically, Furcal at 2B and KJ in LF is 3.32 wins better than KJ at 2B and a replacement level player in LF. I think the reason the Braves are making this move is because they want to improve defensively. KJ should be good defensive player in LF and Furcal is an upgrade over Johnson at 2B.
Interestingly enough, if we assume the Braves have a replacement level LF and replacement level 2B, moving KJ from 2B to LF alone is worth a win.
KJ as a 2B: +0 for position, -0.84 for defense, +3.1
Total: 2.26 wins
Excuse my ignorance if I'm reading this wrong...
…but you’re saying that in a vaccum, KJ is more valuable in LF than at 2B? +/- rates him as almost dead on average at 2B, and he obviously has an above average stick there. In LF he would have an average bat, at best, and a slightly above average fielder. I just don’t see how that is more valuable.
Also, I notice that is bat is worth 3.1 wins…how come that doesn’t flucuate based on the position the bat is coming from? Or is that what the -0.5 and +0 are supposed to mean?
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 17, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t have access to the whole +/- list and it’s certainly fair to assume that KJ is an average defender. Very reasonable.
The -0.5 and +0 are for the position and I was basing it on Tom Tango in Feb 2008. However, it’s outdated now and I shouldn’t have used that, which is my fault. Here’s the October 2008 version. It’s pretty neat seeing how it’s evolved. I think he used to have CF valued the highest. This new version I think is what’s widely accepted by Fangraphs, Beyond the Boxscore, etc.
+0.25 2B/3B/CF
-0.75 LF/RF
So let’s redo that assuming average defense at 2B and plus in LF.
KJ as a LF: -0.75 for position, +0.72 for defense, +3.1
Total: 3.13 wins
KJ as a 2B: +0.25 for position, 0 for defense, +3.1
Total: 3.35 wins
Okay that makes more sense. That’s what I get for slopping pulling out the calculator late at night! I think I’m going to make an excel spreadsheet just to make this easier, less mistake prone, and I’ll have all the adjustments in front of me. I’m pretty new to calculating WAR myself.
Interesting stuff, Vic. I’m still surprised it’s that close, however.
+/- only appears to go back 3 years, so it doesn’t have his stats as a LFer. However, BP seems to rate him pretty generously. From what I remember I wasn’t impressed when he was out there, but that’s a long time ago and I’m not going to rely simply on my memory. Not to mention I thought he was a butcher at 2B just by watching him, but the numbers proved me wrong. At 2B he was rated as -1 in 2008 and 0 in 2007…so pretty much dead on league average.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 17, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah depends on the metrics and stuff. I was reading this thread and a lot of people were saying Baseball Prospectus’s fielding metrics were just awful and I remember I used to cite those stats. Basically, BP bases theirs on putouts, assists, etc. while all the newer ones use plays based on zones.
Dunn
Going to assume he’s 3 wins above average with his bat (that’s what he was in 2007 and 2008). The Marcels projection has him at 2 and I think it’s lowballing him. That make him 5 wins above replacement with his bat. He should be about 1 win average with his glove in LF.
So we get:
-0.75 for position, -1 for defense, +5
Total: 3.25 wins
Hmmmmmmmm. Little surprised he’s about the same as KJ. But the defensive difference is basically the difference between the bats. That’s assuming KJ is +0.72 in LF. (He was +0.42 in 90 games or so and if you extrapolate to 150 games it’s 0.72). This is going by UZR for defense. Dunn could also certain by 3.5-4 wins above average with his bat (5.5 to 6 above replacement) so that could certainly affect the result too.
Doubts about Wren?
We have heard quite a bit of rumor and speculation regarding potential FA signings and potential deals in the works.
With the exception of trading for Vazquez who the White Sox were trying to unload in the first place, not much has happened.
Question—Does Frank Wren have the ability to “close the deal”?
We don’t have to look too far in the rear view mirror to see the days when Schuerholz would play things close to the vest and you usually heard little or no rumor or speculation regarding deals and signings until things were completed.
Wren would be wise to return to those days and keep things hush-hush until the deal goes down.
All of that speculation serves to drive contract and trade demands higher.
I’m not sure how JS did it but it sure worked.
No Frank Wren is a douche. We should start refering to him as “Titanic” because right now he is the captain of a sinking ship.
I really don’t think that he’s done that bad of a job. He got two really good prospects from Detroit for Renteria, and he got about as much as he could for Tex. Right now were judging him based on one season that I think we all knew wouldn’t be that successful anyway. He really can’t be blamed for injuries there just a part of the game. I admire him for the Peavy situation he didn’t want to give up a lot of good prospects for one player and I think that he was right. Only time will tell if the Vazquez trade does anything for us but Vazquez will only be around for two years so even if he’s terrible it won’t be that bad, plus only one of the prospects figured heavily in our future anyway and Flowers would have probably been used in a future trade. I also think that the reason he hasn’t done a lot is because of the market for certain players. Burnett is going to be way overpaid and I believe that, that free agent signing will go down as one of the worst of this offseason. Even though we are rumored to have only little interest in Lowe he wants to much. With what C.C. and Burnett got and with what Tex will eventually get the market for players this year is just to high and I think that Wren realizes this. Overall though I think its to small of a time frame to be judging him.
Answering Mike......
I’m among the group who thinks this (Furcal signing) is probably just the start of some big moves by Wren. If Furcal is Wren’s last move of the winter, then your assertions are probably right; but I think there’s something more on the way. Time will tell.
We might trade Furcal now??
to a team that was willing to trade for a shortstop like Furcal instead of signing him. Some teams would rather trade prospects than add the big money to the payroll.
Wren has a hard time keeping secrets from the media, but I bet he would pay half of Furcal’s salary and send some prospects to KC for Greinke.
I would send Schafer or Gorkys along with Furcal and some $$ to KC for Greinke
Average Left Fielder
Had an OPS of .805. Kelly’s career is .796 and that number will probably get better as I doubt Johnson has peaked. So, he’ll at least be league average. The problem is that we don’t really have a #3 or #4 hitter who will play more than 135 games, so it’s going to be difficult to have a great offense. It can be good, but not great. And out starting pitching isn’t looking better than average right now(and that is if everything goes right). So this team is still not a playoff contender. Wren needs to make another 2 moves. I like Kelly in Left, but this team does still have two major holes. On a side note though, Johnson for Ludwick or Ankiel doesn’t make sense. Ankiel is a free agent at the end of next season and Ludwick is a 31 year old who will get much worse over the next three seasons, while Johnson will get much better. And Ludwick is a serious injury risk.
I really wish consideration would be given to playing McCann at 1B on the days he doesn’t catch. Or at least maybe half the days he doesn’t catch. That would keep his bat in the lineup while still resting him some – the Reds used to move Johnny Bench all over the place when he wasn’t catching.
McCann really ought to be the cleanup hitter. But it’s really hard to have your cleanup hitter out of the lineup 30-35 games per year, esp. when Chipper will probably miss around that many as well.
Sign Brian Giles
He beat the crap out of his wife, that’s gotta bring the price down. Sign Brett Myers and Jose Mesa too.
Brian Giles, ok, i’m on board. Who wants to be with me in right or left field with Brain just wearing wife beater under shirts. We can be the official “Gile’s Wife Beaters Club”!!!!! The more stained the A-shirt the better.
/does not endorse getting in a fisty cuffs with women unless she can totally kick your ass
//happily married
It seems the Dodgers...
Are about to sign Furcal. Mlbtraderumors has just reported they are nearing an agreement, and that the Dodgers have upped their offer from their initial 2 years with a vesting 3rd. I didn’t see this helping us much anyway, although I am a large fan of Furcal.
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