I don’t follow WAR stats too much but how good is the back-end of the rotation. Aren’t the arms after Jurrjens/Vazquez below replacement level so wouldn’t Peavy’s value be technically higher as it moves everyone in the rotation to a spot where they’d be higher than their opposition (i.e. someone like Vazquez goes from being an average 2 to a pretty good 3). Of course this is just subjective and I don’t really know the WAR value of the Reyes/Morton/Campillo bunch, but I agree that Peavy’s value does seem undervalued according to these statistics.

With the Aybar/Peavy thing, it would be one year of Aybar and spending $15.6M on a 3 win pitcher (to replace your replacement level pitcher) for a total of 5.8 wins at $16M is better than one year of Peavy and a replacement level shortstop (0 wins) for a total of 4.77 wins at $16M. If you can make the other 2 assumptions, then I think this analysis is valid. Now I understand what you’re saying though and it makes sense. Certainly this isn’t applicable in every situation.

As for $10M on 25 min-salary players, that only works if they’re all above average players. If it’s a team of replacement level guys like Lillibridge, Anderson, BJones, Morton, etc. it’s not going to do very well. But if it’s all guys like Votto, Ethier, Aybar, Jurrjens, etc. then yea you can field a good team. Maybe we have average and replacement level mixed up or something? Normally an average player is about 2 wins above a replacement level player. I don’t know how many wins a replacement level team is supposed to have or an all average team is supposed to have so if someone could find a baseline there it might make more sense.

You’re right that I shouldn’t have mixed stats like that and that was laziness on my part. If you use Justin’s stats for pitchers, he had Halladay at about 7.4 wins last season and CC at about 7.3 wins when you combine NL and AL. Peavy was at 3 something, but obvious an off year so I wanted a more fair number. The Cy Young worthy seasons are much more comparable to Chipper’s MVP worthy season, whereas the projected season (like the one Fangraphs used) pales in comparison to Chipper’s actual season. I think Chipper’s projected season is still around 5-6 wins though.

For Yunel, if I use a method very similar to fangraph’s method and their stats, you start with wRAA and divide by 10. wRAA is above average and average is 2 wins above replacement level so add 2 wins. Then convert UZR to wins and add that and add the positional adjustment for SS. For the positional adjustment and replacement level adjustment I used Tom Tango’s here. I think it’s a little more conservative than the Fangraph stuff (0.5 wins for being a SS vs 0.75 wins).

I’ll use the 2008 wRAA of 4.2 and the 5.9 UZR for Yunel.. That’s 10.1 runs or 1 win. Then add 2 more wins for above replacement level in the NL and 0.5 wins for being a SS. Well he didn’t play a full season at SS so maybe .4 wins for that in 2008. That makes Yunel a 3.4 win player in 2008 by their method. I think Aybar scores at about 2.5 wins (I gave him a 0.33 wins for SS since it wasn’t a full season) by the same method.

If you go by FIP (2.87) and IP (233) in Peavy’s Cy Young year, he’s worth about 6.4 wins. Halladay at about 6.4 wins in 2008 (Could be higher if you’re generous and give him a bigger leverage bonus bigger than 0.5 since he ate 246 innings). Chipper Jones by the method I outlined above is at about 7.7 wins in 2008. Sabathia in 2008 by the Fangrpah method is 6.75 wins (could be more if you want to give him a bigger than 0.5 leverage bonus for pitching 253 innings).

I did that kinda fast so maybe there’s some mistakes in there, but hopefully that clears it up. What you’re saying is helping me understand this stuff better so thanks for furthering the discussion.

Peavy’s contract is a bargain, but part of it is because of the no trade clause. The biggest bargains in baseball are established players that haven’t hit free agency yet, like Yunel.

Peavy’s park inflates his value some too, allowing him to put up ERAs higher than park neutral ERAs. I think a lot of people are expecting Cy Young value from him every year (2.5-2.8 ERA I think?), when a 3-3.4 ERA park neutral ERA. is more reasonable. I actually forgot Peavy had a 2.8 ERA last season because I’ve been looking at advanced stats that put him at about 3.6 for last season. I guess that was the pendulum swinging back in favor for him after he got an unlucky ERA in 2006.

Defense is undervalued in baseball too, which is why you see a lot of great defensive players sign for below market value each year. Defense can also fluctuate a lot in a year so it’s a little iffy to project and there’s just so many metrics. I can’t find a good link right now, but I think it’s something like each play is worth 0.8 runs, so if a guy saves you 12-13 plays above another player, that’s a win right there.

Predicting future upside for youngsters is tricky and I don’t really know a good method. PECOTA or CHONE maybe? Then you can certainly calculate the future based on that. Marcels does a good job of projecting established players. And for factoring in decline, I think people usually se 10% decline a year.

It’s called 5 recs make it green, and green = awesome

Ladies in the Gym get to see what’s packing with the shorts. Make good non-verbal communication to determine if both parties are interested. Do this as many times as necessary and don’t single in on one. Treat each prospect with the same game. Now you wait for a non intrusive chance. It’s much easier at that point to schedule a bar, coffee shop, smoothie place, whatever….. Then this is your opportunity. You have made your attributes apparent for weeks. She has thought about you from time to time and it’s got the oven already pre-cooked. However, you must determine if you are that good or she is too into it. If it’s the latter of the two then slowly disengage because trouble is a night away.

To maximize efforts it’s smart to let her show you off to as many friends and girls as possible. Make sure your myth travels. Be respectful if you don’t have long term plans. This way your legend grows and your not an ass because you didn’t lead on to far. Just having a good time. Now the oven is pre-cooked for 50% of the friends (depending on how close friends are.) You have successfully planted seeds in the future. Do not engage but wait for circumstances.

Always wear dress slacks or khakis. These are the best pants to wear if you are blessed. No matter where you are a woman will occasionally notice what’s going on. If it’s random then nothing will come of it. However, if it’s a regular thing via work, meetings, organizational meetings, hobbies, whatever…..you are planting a seed. Even if a friend who is not available she will tell her friends if you go out in a crowd. You have planted your seeds and as long as your not a dick and wait your good.

Beach is always good especially if you wear lighter color trunks.

Now for the hotty that you might not see again. It comes down to your game and getting to a makeout session where things could arise. Remember your not wearing jeans so she knows what’s up. Dancing is a good start but don’t be that guy on the dance floor trying to make a porn. There are ways in a song to make it be known without being an ass.

it’s not a science but there are many ways to let it be known. I could go on but it really depends on the situation. I believe the bar is the worst place to go shopping. it’s like produce at the grocery store. It might look good there but if it stays around for awhile it will go bad.