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Baseball America Releases their Top-10 Braves Prospects for 2009

Baseball America released their top-10 prospects for the Atlanta Braves. They are the third major prospect outlet to do so, preceeded by John Sickels and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. The Talking Chop readers also put out a top-25 list which can be viewed here. The Baseball America top-10 list:

  1. Tommy Hanson, rhp
  2. Jason Heyward, of
  3. Jordan Schafer, of
  4. Gorkys Hernandez, of
  5. Freddie Freeman, 1b
  6. Cole Rohrbough, lhp
  7. Jeff Locke, lhp
  8. Julio Teheran, rhp
  9. Kris Medlen, rhp
  10. Craig Kimbrel, rhp

It's no surprise to see Hanson above Heyward after the AFL he had. It's also interesting to see that they think very highly of Craig Kimbrel. Jordan Schafer, last year's top prospect is now number three on the list.

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Cody Johnson rated as the best power hitter? I don’t know much about the guy, so can someone please tell me if that’s an accurate rating? I would have figured Freeman, but I’m not very up to date on our minor leaguers other than the top guys we talk about on a daily basis.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 11:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Johnson

Strikes out a ton, but when he connects, he hits them farther than a person should be able to do. Massive power, seriously.
I tried my best to find a link to an article in the paper of the visiting city where Rome was playing this year. Cody hit one over the fence, over a pathway, and over another fence into a parking lot or something. I mean, it was enough to be big news in whatever town it was in. It’s somewhere out there…..

by secondbass on Dec 15, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And Steve Hacker and Ron Wright and Mike Hessman. Yeah, some guys don’t pan out. But maybe Johnson will. History’s not on his side, but maybe…

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i’m pretty sure mike hessman is the all-time minor league home run leader or something silly like that.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 1:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He beat Crash Davis’ record?

by 10-4 on Dec 15, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He’s working on it. I love Mike and the crazy thing is, as long as he’s been around, he’s still only gonna be 31 at the start of next season. There’s plenty of time for him to have an impact for a major league team. If he got 500 at bats in a season he’d hit 40 home runs. He’d also strikeout 250 times, but he’d drive a few in.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Home Run

The home run you are talking about was in Asheville on May 23rd. It was measured by Google Earth at 515’. The article is no longer in the Asheville Newpaper archives but if I can find a copy I will scan and post it.

by NWFla on Dec 15, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’d have to say that’s accurate. Cody may have as much power as any player in the game; it’s really his one plus plus tool and the only one’s he’s been consistent with. Freddie is a much better overall hitter and he’ll probably put up a ton of homers, but if each reached their peak, Cody would definitely hit more. In fact, even though it didn’t bear out in the numbers this year, I’d argue that Heyward has more power than Freddie.
This reminds me of something great I got to see in Spring Training this year. After all the minor leaguers were done practicing, Cody Johnson, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and Tyler Flowers stayed late for a hitting session in front of all of the Braves minor league hitting coaches. By the end it turned into a home run derby. I was (and still am) pretty excited about the future of the Braves.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hernandez above Freeman? Hanson about Heyward? Interesting.

by iLukeisamazing on Dec 15, 2008 11:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I’ve been surprised to see Freeman below Gorkys on both BA’s and BP’s lists.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Surprised?

Yes, I am too. But, considering they are listed back to back I’m am not overly concerned. BA has always liked toolsy players and considering Freeman’s age and his lack of historical performance I can almost understand the rankings. Again, I don’t necessarily agree with it.

by scstrato on Dec 15, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think if the list had been made a month or so ago you probably would have seen heyward above Hanson (and he was on most lists). But it is interesting what a dominant AFL means for a pitcher vs a hitter. Flowers was absolutely terrifying out there and he was still in the bottom 1/4 of the AFL rankings but Hanson was Godzirra on steroids and he leapfrogs heyward in most peoples minds. Obviously ‘Zona is a hitters dreamland and in recent years most clubs haven’t even been sending their top flight pitching prospects out there because they get hit so hard and their psyches get brittle, so that makes seeing Hanson cruise through there even most impressive.

 Remember just a few short months ago when most people were saying Hanson was a back of the rotation starter? Did Hanson improve that much this year? Or was he just massively underrated by the majority of scouts? Probably a little of both. I know the slider had a lot to do with his success.

by yondaime4 on Dec 15, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

“Remember just a few short months ago when most people were saying Hanson was a back of the rotation starter?”

I remember that. I disagreed with that sentiment, and you defended the back of the rotation rating with supreme assholery.

Anyways, I’m sure you’re glad the projections of Hanson’s ceiling might have been inaccurate – although he hasn’t pitched in the Major Leagues yet, so nothing is certain.

by buzzdeadwax on Dec 15, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

man hold a grudge or what? pictures or it didn’t happen

by yondaime4 on Dec 15, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Never mind - Found it myself
Now with that said, I know a lot of people have quoted scouts and what not who say that Tommy Hanson has middle of the rotation stuff and middle of the rotation potential all season, but the big thing with Hanson has been that he has added some pretty good velocity this year. Hanson also started throwing a slider which has quickly become a go-to outpitch. So some things have changed for Hanson this season.

Consider this: most of these people who have been quoting these scouts are quoting people from last offseason. Tommy Hanson absolutely exploded this year so there is a lot of talk, and so since we all don’t get to see Tommy Hanson pitch, we use what we have read about him last offseason. Now we have to wait for the real scouting reports to start trickling in this offseason after everyone has been able to see him in person and come away with their impressions.

I never defended that he was a back of the rotation pitcher, but I guess quoting stuff is being an asshole. So here I am being an asshole again….

by yondaime4 on Dec 15, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you asshole!

by gondeee on Dec 15, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why would you bother?

Are you so insecure that you’d take the time to search through posts, then deliberately leave out the parts where you were a dick just so that you can escape any kind of criticism? I mean, why would any rational person call you an asshole for quoting someone else? That makes zero sense. It’s okay to be wrong – we all are sometimes. And sometimes we act like assholes toward each other, but we shouldn’t compound that by denying that it ever happened. It must be awesome to be right all the time.

by buzzdeadwax on Dec 15, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well I mean, you brought up a post I made nearly 6 months ago and called me an asshole over it. I guess now I’m the insecure one because I felt I needed to respond to such a thing? And here you are still calling me names over a post…made on the internet. And then you get mad because I researched it. Have you never been on the internet before? Do you not know how this works? I mean where you come from can you throw rocks at someone and expect them to keep walking? No you are just a name calling petulant child.

and here is the entirety of my post for your viewing pleasure:

I’m just gonna quote this real quick…….

Tommy Hanson

    The Future: A potential middle-of-the-rotation starter, Hanson has moved quickly while making adjustments against experienced competition. He will likely return to Myrtle Beach, but could earn a midseason promotion.

-Bill Ballew, 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook

Also from Bill Ballew in the chat-wrap for the Braves Top 10 List:

 Q: clv from way back in the hills of nc asks:
It’s great to see that you think so highly of Jurrjens. The bigger question is what type of a ceiling do you see Tommy Hanson having?
 A:

Bill Ballew: Well, howdy, pardner. Ol’ Tommy is one tenacious pitcher. He doesn’t have an overpowering pitch, which brings him down a notch in some people’s book, but he can throw four pitches for strikes. I believe he has a chance to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher in the big leagues.

Yeah the scouts people have been quoting were, in fact, Baseball America’s own scouts. In fact, it was Bill Ballew. For those that don’t know, BA assigns their scouts to teams and those guys track the players of their assigned teams for the entire season and when it is all said and done and the put the book together, that scout writes the report for the team(s) he was assigned. Bill Ballew has been the editor for the Braves since at least 2003 (when I started reading BA). I would think if anyone knows Braves prospects (outside the Braves scouts), it would have to be Ballew.

Now with that said, I know a lot of people have quoted scouts and what not who say that Tommy Hanson has middle of the rotation stuff and middle of the rotation potential all season, but the big thing with Hanson has been that he has added some pretty good velocity this year. Hanson also started throwing a slider which has quickly become a go-to outpitch. So some things have changed for Hanson this season.

Consider this: most of these people who have been quoting these scouts are quoting people from last offseason. Tommy Hanson absolutely exploded this year so there is a lot of talk, and so since we all don’t get to see Tommy Hanson pitch, we use what we have read about him last offseason. Now we have to wait for the real scouting reports to start trickling in this offseason after everyone has been able to see him in person and come away with their impressions.

Anyways, point being, don’t start bashing people about what they have read when your source contradicts itself.

by yondaime4 on Dec 15, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good u r a dick… quoting and citign and having an opinion.. u bastard

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 15, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If Heyward was in BA’s midseason top 10, doesnt it stand to reason with Hanson being placed above him that we will have 2 top 10 prospects entering next season…

by gopherbroke on Dec 15, 2008 11:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

It’s nice to see they’re sticking to their guns with Teheran. They had him ranked high last year and after a so-so debut it would have been easy to drop him out of the top ten. I think they’re right too, the kid is good.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 12:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Grrr...

They misspelled Francoeur everywhere.

Also, best slider: Hanson. Didn’t he just introduce the slider into his repertoire this last year? I though he had a pretty decent fastball and a good yakker curveball…its very interesting that his slider looks so good to these guys. I wonder if it was his out pitch in the AFL.

by soup du jour on Dec 15, 2008 12:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

well Hanson had a great slider before he entered the Brvaes system, I have heard (most likely from somone at TC) that the Brvaes dont like pitchers throwing sliders in the low minors or soemthign like that.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 15, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

similar situation to King Felix it sounds like. Everyone knew Felix wasn’t even using his best pitch until he reached the majors.

by yondaime4 on Dec 15, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ah Ha! Hicks at 3rd!!!

BA has Hicks as the projected starter at 3rd for 2012. I only point that out to remind the world that I predicted that eventual move long ago.
I know that doesn’t mean it will happen….and if it doesn’t, I’ll deny I ever said it…..

by secondbass on Dec 15, 2008 12:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What? Me? When? I have no recollection of what you’re talking about.
Unless I’m right, of course….

by secondbass on Dec 15, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

BA has said they only use the projected lineups as a rough estimate for evaluating depth, not a prediction of the future. It would be a waste of his value if ATL moved him off of SS. He is an excellent defensive shortstop. therefore if his bat continues to progress, a significant portion of his value is reduced by him changing positions where there exists a higher offensive standard of production. If he hits up to the level of his ceiling, he wil either 1) play SS for Atlanta or 2) be traded to another organization who will play him at SS where his value is maximized.

by jeg on Dec 15, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is he an excellent defensive shortstop? Every time I saw him he looked adequate, but his size and body type looked like he was eventually going to have to move off of short. I really didn’t see anything that made me think he was a plus defender at short.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

every scouting report ive seen about Hicks has promoted the notion that he was a plus defender at SS. strong arm, solid to above average range, sure hands, excellent athlete, instinctive is what has come out of the scouting community but i personally have not seen him. I may have been wrong to assert he has a plus defender but havent heard anything to dispute that until now

by jeg on Dec 15, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m no scout, but I watched him play in Rome (15 or 20 games), and 6 at Myrtle Beach. He’s good with the glove, good arm, but he is indeed, as cbwilk said, a big guy. Looks like a 3B to me, but I guess there’s no body type or profile that is set in stone regarding who can play where or what. My gut feeling, however, is that he’ll end up at third. Pope doesn’t appear to be advancing with the bat, Campbell is one big question mark, Gilmore just got traded, so who is next in line? Samuel Sime? Adam Coe?
No, I say! Brandon Hicks!
And that’s my scouting report….

by secondbass on Dec 15, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah that seems to be a pretty good evaluation. if he does outgrow SS or lose athleticism then maybe he should be moved off of SS but if he maintains above average defense ability at SS, he should stay at SS where he has more value. im not sold that he will improve enough at the plate to be a regular 3B. lots of K’s and he isnt exactly young for the level of competition

by jeg on Dec 15, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

to me it just seems like a CHipper instance, defensivley at least, Hicks is a bgi boy at 6’ 3" similar to Chipper, and their body types ate very similar. Unfortunately i do not remember whether or not CHipper was considered a good SS, But I have always thoguth Hicks projects more as a 3B, simply because of his size.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 15, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s been awhile but I believe chipper was designated as a 3b prospect after one year in the farm’s. He struggled at SS defensively with the Macon Braves back in 1991. Like I said it’s been awhile but I believe 1991 is the correct year where his 3B career was predicted.

by Charmin519 on Dec 15, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I appreciate your position jeg. I didn’t mean to call you out or anything, I was just wondering where you were coming from. Definitely, if you haven’t seen a player, all you can go on is what you read. My guess is Hicks looked good at short in college and that hung over to his pro debut.
I’m not sold on him as a hitter. Personally I think right now Travis Jones is a better player, but he’s not athletic enough to play short, so Hicks gets all the love.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

your position is appreciated as well. Travis Jones does have a nice power/speed combo that could push him up the prospect rungs quickly. I also believe that eric campbell could have a breakout year (for the 2nd time) at AA. He has shown good power and improved plate discipline. Not a plus defender but still playable. The fact that he doesnt strike out much suggests his batting average has potential to increase even as he moves up a level. Lets hope he has got his head straight because the kid can mash

by jeg on Dec 15, 2008 7:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m actually not a fan of Campbell at all. I always take the line from Bull Durham, “He’s got a million dollar arm and a 10 cent head” and apply it to Campbell. I just doubt the guy will be able to get over himself and produce like he could be able to. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s just how I feel about him.
We’ve got a pretty deep farm system and Travis Jones is a great example of that. He had a pretty nice season (even though he probably would have been better off at Rome for the first part of the year) and he never gets talked about. He’s the best second base prospect in the system (unless you count Diory Hernandez as a 2B) and a darn good player, but nobody talks about him cause there are 20-30 guys that are better than him. It’s a pretty fun time to watch the Braves minor leagues right now.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but nuke laloosh does eventually get over himself and go on to the big leagues

by jeg on Dec 15, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder if trading Gilmore is a vote of confidence in Campbell? Or it could be a vote of not so much confidence in Gilmore. Either way, Campbell does bring a lot of natural ability to the table.

by buzzdeadwax on Dec 15, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t really think it was either. I think it was more of, this is what we have to do to get this pitcher. They signed Donell Linares, a 25 year old Cuban third baseman this year, and they’re saying he’s going to start out in the middle of the system next year. I guess that means either Myrtle Beach or Mississippi. So, if anything, maybe they were comfortable enough with his play during instructional league to be willing to let go of Gilmore.
I like getting Vazquez, but I hate to see Gilly go. I’ve never been that impressed with an 18 year old player as a person before.

by cbwilk on Dec 16, 2008 1:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i’m pretty sure that of everyone on the planet, i like hernandez the least

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 12:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

less than Hitler? hes alive I saw him on the tv, but tom cruise is gonna get em : )

by bwellnjonesco on Dec 15, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i phrased that horribly. i meant “of everyone who likes hernandez, i’m the lowest on him”. yeah.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I love Gorkys. The guy can flat out play. I’m hoping he develops well and we finally have a long term leadoff hitter.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i personally think he’s destined for trade bait because we cannot essentially have 2 CFs in the OF.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 12:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You may be right, but Schafer has a different skill set. Yes, he’s a centerfielder, and a better one that Gorkys, but as a hitter he’s likely to be more of a 3 hole hitter, or at worst a 5-7 hitter. He could fit in well at leadoff or in the 2 hole, but if he performs up to his potential, he’s going to be better than that.
 Gorkys really only projects as a leadoff hitter. So it’s not like they’re the same player, and Gorkys is at least a year behind Jordan in development. It would be nice having that kind of defense in an outfield.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is Schafer the better defender of the two? Or vice versa? Just curious.

And do you prefer Gorkys over Schafer as the leadoff hitter simply because of his speed? BP did a writeup last season in which Hernandez rated as one of the top-3 speedsters in the minors last year. But, to my knowledge Schafer is no slouch. Think Gorkys is plus-plus, whereas Jordan is just plus. Jordan has a better walk rate in the minors, though. That’s why I think I would prefer him. Has Schafer been hitting from the leadoff spot in the minors?

Sorry for all the questions…

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i’ve heard some RIDICULOUS things about schafer’s defense from a bunch of people.

in the minors, he’s lower in the lineup…i think he spent a lot of time in the 5 hole for the m-braves this year.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I’ve heard that Jordan’s defense is so good that he’ll be in the majors for that alone…regardless of how his stick plays. I was just hoping to get some feedback from some people that may have seen the two.

Thanks for the lineup info. I would rather have the guy with a a higher walk rate who’s projected to go 20/20, than the guy with a lower walk rate who’s projected to go 10/40…but that’s just me.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

*I would rather have the guy AS A LEADOFF HITTER…

what I meant to type.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If you don’t like people making fun of your typos, stop making them… be SMRTER.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Dec 15, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I know right? I’m assuming you saw that conversation from last night.

I’ve been typing with all thumbs the past two days.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

basestealing is so horribly overrated anyway. thats the one thing old man bobby might be right about.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Overrated? Possibly a hidden truth but at the same time......

I don’t think one guy who has the ability to steal would hinder us. We shouldn’t avoid it by any means. If we don’t have HR bats then small ball becomes a bigger factor.

by Charmin519 on Dec 15, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gorkys is swiping bases at an 83% rate in the minors…the number would have to be that high in the majors for the extra 90 feet to outweigh the number of times he gives up an out. Chances are with more adept catchers he’s going to be below 80%, and it’s around that percentage that stealing bases beginnings to backfire.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Overrated

But I think that if you have a guy on first who is a huge threat to steal a base it can make some differences in how much the pitcher concentrates on the making good pitches, as opposed to being fast to the plate to give his catcher a chance. Therefore maybe making a mistake. It also gives the defense something to worry about for positioning and maybe opening more holes in the infield.
  
        But Booby is just going to have the guy behind him bunt him over anyway, so there really is no need to be a big time basestealer.

by JFP on Dec 15, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Schafer is definitely the better defender of the two, but Gorkys would probably be the best defensive outfielder in any other organization.
I prefer Gorkys as a leadoff hitter over Jordan simply because Gorkys doesn’t project anywhere else. He could be a two hitter, but you’d have to have somebody with a better leadoff skill set ahead of him, and that just seems unlikely, and in the 8 hole you’re kind of wasting him.
I’ve seen Jordan hit leadoff, 3rd, and 5th over the last few years in different places. I loved him out of the leadoff spot; he reminded me of Marquis Grissom, kind of a guy who didn’t really belong leading off, but it created a dynamic situation where he could do just about anything in a given at bat.
You’re right about Jordan being fast, but it’s not the same kind of speed. He’s got athletic speed, whereas Gorkys has speed-speed. Jordan is just a great athlete and he does everything well. Gorkys is a great athlete too, but he’s built more for speed than the sort of overall game Jordan is.
They’re both fantastic players and you really couldn’t go wrong with either one of them out of the leadoff spot. Frankly I’d love to see a lineup four or five years from now where it went Gorkys, Jordan, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward 1-4. That’s fairly unlikely, but it’d be something.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 6:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff man.

I really enjoy hearing from those of you who have seen them in person. Many thanks. I still would prefer Jordan out of the two though.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh no doubt. But hopefully the world is perfect and we never have to choose.

by cbwilk on Dec 16, 2008 1:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not the biggest Hernandez fan either but I have to admit that he has Furcal-like potential out of the leadoff spot. He has the excellent speed (though he didn’t steal much this year for whatever reason) and he gets a good share of XBH. He is still young but I soured on him a little this season even though he had a nagging injury for most of the middle part of the year. I hope he proves me wrong.

by yondaime4 on Dec 15, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i think the hamstign affected him a lot, and thats why he wasnt stealign as many bases.. wasnt it his hamstring he went down with for much of the year

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 15, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ok I couldn’t remember if it was a hammy or a wrist thing so I didn’t want to assume either. But yeah then that would do it.

by yondaime4 on Dec 15, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Trade #1 and #2 for Peavy.

Just kidding. Throw in Escobar too. That’ll get it done.

by 10-4 on Dec 15, 2008 1:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Just looking at the list from '07, look at our projected 2010 lineup

Catcher-Brian McCann
First Base-Adam LaRoche
Second Base-Edgar Renteria
Third Base-Chipper Jones
Shortstop-Elvis Andrus
Left Field-Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Center Field-Andruw Jones
Right Field-Jeff Francoeur
No. 1 Starter Tim Hudson
No. 2 Starter Kyle Davies
No. 3 Starter Matt Harrison
No. 4 Starter Jo-Jo Reyes
No. 5 Starter Chuck James

by Land-Man on Dec 15, 2008 1:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

davies as a number 2. yikes.

i’d die if he strolled into KC next season as the #3 though. good for him.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

davies was rushed. his command wasnt strong enough to survive when he was first brought up and he was hammered as a result. happens to many pitchers brought up at that age. i hope he can continue to improve because he still has the potential to be a solid, mid-rotation arm

by jeg on Dec 15, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ALSO SEE: reyes, jojo

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

reyes had more success in the upper levels of the minors than davies had. he is to the point of a make or break season. if he doesnt show any improvement early in the year, i doubt we will see him get another chance with the organization. even though he had some success, it was plain as day what was going to happen with davies in the first couple starts he was up. he was missing up in the zone with his FB and he wasnt the type of pitcher who could survive pitching that way. id like to see the braves adopt one of the older ways of breaking young pitchers in, put in the bullpen and put in positions to have some success for a couple months before inserting them as starters. our recent track record of breaking in our top pitching prospects hasnt been a great success

by jeg on Dec 15, 2008 7:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Putting pitchers in the bullpen is a good idea

It can only help a pitcher to get a lot of practice working out of jams. Then, when they are starting again, they understand what they need to do to work out of tough situations.

by buzzdeadwax on Dec 15, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i believe the dodgers use this system pretty regularly in breaking in talent. i know it seems to be a more conservative approach and the braves are typically pretty aggressive when it comes to promoting a prospect when they enjoy at least moderate success at AA. There is nothing wrong with bringing these 21 and 22 year olds to the show if they are ready but it seems like most of the guys we insert directly into the rotation wind up as roadkill

by jeg on Dec 16, 2008 1:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Two other great examples of this were Liriano, and Santana with the Twins. Both of whom started out in the Minny Pen and have been great since.

by gopherbroke on Dec 16, 2008 9:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i know BA isn't the gospel

but this

“Undaunted by giving up five prospects for Teixeira in a 2006 trade that will turn out to be one of Schuerolz’s most regrettable moves”

is a big fuck you to all of you a-holes who keep trying to convince me that the tex trade was a good move.

by son.of.sourman on Dec 15, 2008 3:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

my counter to that is not a single player that we gave up in that deal has made the move look bad for us. Yet.

by yondaime4 on Dec 15, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Once again, they are looking at the trade in hindsight so of course they can say that. And until Andrus and Feliz reach the bigs I don’t see how you can call it a loss…in fact I’m surprised BA would go that far. Salty and Harrison look terrible so far.

Oh, and fuck you too.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I feel really warm and fuzzy right now...

…but I can’t, for the life of me, figure not why.

by buzzdeadwax on Dec 15, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

of course it's hindsight

it’s an event that happened in the past. what else would it be? we have this information now, so why do you want to ignore it? isn’t more information usually better? i don’t get you man.

by son.of.sourman on Dec 15, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, we have more information. But the present information does not impress me. Beau Jones looks like shit down in the minors, Salty and Harrison do not look good in the majors. Sure, Andrus and and Feliz are projectable, but I’ll hold my breath on them.

The PAs and IPs we got from Tex and Mahay can’t be disputed though. They were well above average. Did we make the playoffs? Of course not, but it was hardly their fault. Kotchman, Marek, and Devall? Time will also tell with them.

But spending every day bitter about the trade must suck man, because it wasn’t all that bad.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 8:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

bitter isn't the right word

annoyed at people talking themselves into an obviously awful trade just because it was made by their idea of a baseball god, is more accurate, but longer.

“Did we make the playoffs?”

That answers your question right there. The whole point was to either keep Tex somehow or make the playoffs. your comment "Of course not, but it was hardly their fault. " tells me you don’t understand the situation. If even with these guys the playoffs were not in the cards then it’s an even worse trade. In that case there was absolutely no upside, unless you think Kotchman, Devall, Marek > Feliz, Andrus, Salty, Harrison.

by son.of.sourman on Dec 15, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you can stop mentioning matt harrison like he was some kind of huge loss, thanks.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 9:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It wasn't a bad trade at all. Your entire argument is after the fact and still doesn't prove anything.

We didn’t lose anything worth value and we made an effort to get into the playoffs. If we didn’t make the trade and didn’t make the playoffs you would be bitching that we didn’t make a move at all.

The End.

by Charmin519 on Dec 15, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

fallacious argument

at least i’m basing my argument on facts, whereas you are resorting to how you believe I would be behaving in an alternate universe. and this all rests on your premise about not losing anything of value, which i admit is possible. but many, including myself and Baseball America would disagree.

until next time…

by son.of.sourman on Dec 15, 2008 10:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i think its far fetched to say we didnt give up anything of value, the fact of the matter is we wont know what we gave up until Andrus and Feliz actually play in a major league uniform (or if they ever do).

the way i look at it is we gave up some prospects one we sold high on, (salty) and then two really young guys who we thought we could afford to lose… in return we got one fo the top3 1B and a very good reliever. which we turned into Kotchman and Marek and DeVall. IF DeVall turns into Santana (not a comparison just an example) and Andrus and Feliz dotn do anythign than this is the greatest trade in the history of the world, based off your thinking… which is fine. but the way msot people value a trade is at the time it occured. esp when u are dealing with projection of young players still. in ten years if Andrus and Feliz are all stars and DeVall doesnt do anything and MArek sucks. then Ill agree this was a bad trade in hindsight. But until we have some factual proof that Adrus and Feliz> Kotchman, Marek and DeVall… ill continue to beleive the trade was at minimum decent

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 15, 2008 11:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Your comments were cute the first five times I heard them. Not anymore.

I fully understand the situation, when Wren brings over two players in a trade and they live up to their end of the bargain. It’s that simple. Tex had a 163 OPS+ and Mahay had a 189 ERA+ for the remainder of 2007. Get a fuckin’ clue.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 16, 2008 12:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I really wish everyone would figure out not to engage in a discussion with this son.of.sourman. He never says anything worth hearing and he argues just to argue. Just say no everyone!

by cbwilk on Dec 16, 2008 1:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and yet...

that wasn’t enough to make the playoffs and thus…it was a mistake. unless of course devall turns out to be a god (and had tex been resigned at some discount). of course you could always say that the braves could turn feliz and andrus into peavy or someone right now easy, at which point it’s definitely a loss.

here try this analogy. it’s a hold em (poker) analogy. Player one has a Jack and an 8 (J8) and player two has a 2 and 4. Player two raises a lot before the flop and player one calls. The flop is Ace-Ace-8. Player two raises all in, and player one calls. You might say this is a great call because there is every reason to think player two has an ace, but player one has called the bluff. Unfortunately, the next two cards are 4s and player one loses on a bad beat.

You are trying to tell me that player one did the right thing, and I’m here to tell you that you are wrong. He lost the tournament, he’s out of money, it’s over. If he could go back and not call that, he would. You’ve got to judge the decision by the point of maximum information – why go back in time and ignore what we know now? We know now that this trade was not a good trade.

by son.of.sourman on Dec 16, 2008 1:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's funny

You’re using a game of pure chance in an analogy for baseball? The only skill involved in poker is knowing the percentages.

1. Player one was wrong to call the initial raise in your scenario with a hand as pathetic as J 8 even though he had 61% chance to win the hand.
2. Player two was wrong to raise in the first place. A significant raise such as this pre-flop is a clear indicator of a bluff (overplaying their hand) not to mention he has less than 38% chance to win the hand.
3. Player one should have called after the flop knowing 1 and 2. He has 97% chance to win the hand. He still has better than 95% chance to win the hand after the first 4 fell.
4. Last, this is the worst poker hand ever played by both parties! Player one should have folded pre-flop based on player twos raise and player two won’t last much longer because he doesn’t know how to play poker.

So, based on the percentages of player one winning the hand, the only move he made that was questionable was the initial call. Every move from there on was right. Player one made his decisions based on the maximum information at the time of the play. Insinuating that he could somehow see into the future and know a bad beat was coming is ridiculous and shows your ignorance on the subject. The only problem with player one’s strategy is that he was unlucky on the river.

Now then, how exactly does this pertain to a baseball trade?

by scstrato on Dec 16, 2008 9:24 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Bad idea

Making gambling analogies here. I can think of at least six users who have (severe) gambling addictions.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Dec 16, 2008 10:01 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i haven’t placed a bet for a year, fuck you

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 16, 2008 12:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

disagree

one could argue that the skill in being a GM is understanding that all outcomes are probabilistic, and even the most sure thing has a confidence interval around it.

I’m not ignorant on the subject. I didn’t insinuate that player one could see the future. See my other writings on that subject. The fact is that we know the outcome and he does now as well. Knowing that – it was a bad move. He woudl not choose to do that again. I wish we could live in a world where doing the right thing always led to the right outcome (or maybe i don’t, i’ll have to think about that). Regardless, we don’t live in that world. All we care about is the outcome, what happened. Player one lost money and the braves lost some sweet prospects, that could be turned into an ace right now.

by son.of.sourman on Dec 16, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No again

The “move” wasn’t bad, it had an unlucky outcome but that doesn’t make it bad. The “bad” move was the ridiculous raise that ended in a lucky outcome, but that doesn’t make it good.

I wish we could live in a world where doing the right thing always led to the right outcome

Exactly, the right thing (player one making the all-in call) did not lead to the right outcome (player two winning on odds of less than 2%).

You can’t spin this analogy any other way, every statistician and odds maker on the planet will tell you the same thing.

by scstrato on Dec 16, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that's a complete lie

i work with one of the most prominent statisticians in the country and we’ve had many conversations on this very topic. i used to argue your position (evaluate the play by how it was made at the time) but over time has convinced me that one can evaluate decisions both ways.

he’s much better spoken and erudite that I am, but at least I can say i was open minded enough to see his reasoning over time. although i was just as against it as you are now at the time.

by son.of.sourman on Dec 17, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You’re a lost cause, man.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 16, 2008 9:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that is easier to say than admit you're wrong

i’ll give you that.

it’s just the very simple idea, that you can do what seems right at the time, but it is still a mistake if it turns out wrong.

i can make a great call or fold given the current information, but there is still a good chance it’s a mistake.

and in the case of this trade, i’m not even sure it was a good move at the time. someone clearly misevaluated the talent on the team to think that Tex and Mahay would be enough.

and i’m sticking to my guns that having feliz and andrus right now would buy a really nice SP

by son.of.sourman on Dec 16, 2008 11:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not admitting I’m wrong, because you have done nothing to convince me otherwise. The main problem with your argument is that you’re unwilling to acknowledge the shades of gray that exist in baseball. The FO made a trade to put us in a better position to make the playoffs and both of those players did just that…it is not the fault of either of them that we didn’t.

If Feliz and Andrus both come to the majors and dominate I will gladly admit that I am wrong. But until that happens calling the trade an obvious loss is stupid.

And please stop bringing up the fact that those prospects could be used RIGHT NOW to get us an ace. We’ve made a dozen moves since the Tex trade and there’s a good chance that Salty/Harrison/Feliz/Andrus/Jones would have been included in one of them. Way too many permutations to even consider. But then again, that is your black-and-white thinking rearing it’s ugly head.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 16, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you could get me to agree

that the braves were right about what Tex and mahay woulld bring to the table, but woefully wrong about what the existing team would contribute.

by son.of.sourman on Dec 16, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m glad someone else posted that quote so that I didn’t have to. I simply must add: ha ha

by rocket8188 on Dec 15, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone else on the BA prospect chat? And anyone have a question they want me to ask if they aren’t?

by yondaime4 on Dec 15, 2008 3:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

From my February 2008 issue of Beckett Baseball, the Rookie Card Issue:

Prospects for 2008: Double A
Analysis: Spot Starter/Middle Reliever

by 10-4 on Dec 15, 2008 4:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Eh...

Mike Piazza was a 62nd round pick, number 1390 overall in 1988. Three years later, Brien Taylor (from my old HS by the way) went #1 overall. It happens.

I think a bigger fail would be when the Braves, way back in the day, decided that Willie Mays was worth only an $8,500 dollar signing bonus instead of the $10,000 he eventually took from the Giants.

by BraveBronco0121 on Dec 15, 2008 7:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Um, $1500 was a lot of money back then

Seriously though, to think that the only thing standing between an outfield of Aaron, Mays, and who cares was a couple thousand dollars…

by buzzdeadwax on Dec 15, 2008 7:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i just talked to my dad (he grew up in milwauke when the braves were there) (not that anyone gives a shit) but imagine this the lineup would have been Aaron, Mays, Mattthews…. thats somewhere around 2000 HR… tell me if you were a pitcher and u saw that u wouldnt shit urslef

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 15, 2008 11:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i actually did a little just thinking about it.

by yondaime4 on Dec 16, 2008 12:01 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol

honey, get the towel! i think there’s a nostalgia mark in my underwear again.

by brndn on Dec 16, 2008 12:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the “FAIL” was referring to me not putting the name along with the information.

by 10-4 on Dec 15, 2008 10:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

BA does some very good work in evaluating players but their chats are a little too positive. Dont feel like they give you the best grasp of the individual weaknesses of prospects. Not the biggest Keith Law fan in the world, but I do appreciate that he doesnt dick around and is not reluctant to criticize. I know why BA sells the all positive image but still annoys me at times

by jeg on Dec 16, 2008 1:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think when they do the prospect handbook they do a better job of criticizing players. I understand the idea of looking on the bright side of guys though. You really don’t want to sell somebody short and have them turn into a stud and make you look foolish.

by cbwilk on Dec 16, 2008 1:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the handbook does do a slightly better job but it still isnt all that great. part of it has to be that BA gets most of their scouting reports from the scouts of the individual teams, who dont want to see their prospects undervalued and thus BA is acting in its best interest by not being too critical in oder to keep getting the evaluations from the scouts.

by jeg on Dec 16, 2008 3:13 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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