Now What for the Atlanta Braves...
by gondeee on Dec 13, 2008 4:30 PM EST
in Braves Trade News
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PrintAll is not lost for the Atlanta Braves. While it may have seemed like we were putting a lot of our off-season eggs in the A.J. Burnett basket, we apparently have other things in the works. Braves GM Frank Wren was busy at the winter meetings planting seeds for possibly future moves:
Wren said Thursday that there were deals the Braves could possibly make in the next days, one contingent on another team first making another trade. He said the Braves have the framework in place for another possible trade and only needed to agree on players the Braves would include in the deal.
Here are some possible moves that the Braves might be considering (or at the very least, make some degree of sense for the team):
- Sign Ben Sheets. I'm not sure how much Sheets is being offered by the teams interested, and it has been said that the Braves are not interested in him, but circumstances certainly have changed. Perhaps the best way to get Sheets to Atlanta would be to throw big money at him for two years, increasing what he could get per year elsewhere, but still not putting a pitcher with a history of injury on the books long term. Say two guaranteed years at $12 or so million with a third team option year. So far the hot team in on Sheets has been the Rangers.
- Trade with the Reds. There was a rumor earlier in the off-season that the Reds had interest in Jeff Francoeur. Perhaps that trade could be rekindled in a Francoeur for Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang swap. Both pitchers had their rough spots this year, but so did Frenchy, so this might be a buy low bid for each team. Perhaps we could get a better deal from the Reds if they are looking to clear either pitcher's salary from their books (Arroyo's owed around $10 million and Harang around $11 million each of the next two years).
- Trade with the Royals. This has certainly been an oft-repeated rumor -- with the Braves side wanting starter Zach Greinke from Kansas City. It likely would not be Jeff Francoeur going to KC in this deal, but other unknown players or prospects. KC GM Dayton Moore still knows the Braves system well, so don't think that any level of minor prospects would go unnoticed by him, but even he knows the value of the big talent in our system.
- Sign John Smoltz. This is an obvious one, and something I think the team will still wait a month or so on, but it certainly makes many Braves fans nervous that other teams are eying our lifelong Brave. This shouldn't be just about nostalgia, though it may be partly nostalgia, we should be signing Smoltz because he still has the ability to be a top of the rotation starter... when healthy.
I was trying to rack my brain and scan the rosters of other teams to see what else Wren might have in store in the way of trades, but I couldn't come up with anything that wasn't a complete flight of fancy. My inclination is that if and when we do pull off a trade it will come as somewhat of a surprise, and likely something we hadn't heard about until it happens. This is the way the Vazquez deal went down, and this has been the history with other trades that Wren and his predessor have made. Usually the trades we talk most about are the ones that never happen.
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"My inclination is that if and when we do pull off a trade it will come as somewhat of a surprise ..."
Yeah. Glad we spend all this time rosterbating.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
"Usually the trades we talk most about are the ones that never happen."
Well lets not talk about the Greinke trade!!!!!
Trade Options
I agree that KC seems to be the best fit for a trade. Other teams with good young front of the rotation pitching include San Fran, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Pitt. I think Pitt will proly be the next best alternative, but in the reference to buying low on Harrang or Arroyo, how about Verlander in Detroit. That could be a good move, but what would it take?
As far as OF goes, Id like to see them make an offer to Ty Wigginton to play LF, he did it for 30 games last year and wouldnt cost too much…it’s a thought.
STOP THINKING SMALL!!
STOP THINKING SMALL!! THINK BIG!!! Your telling me you are willling to put Ty Wigginton in our OF? Are you nuts?? Are you kidding me?? Bronson Arroyo?? NO!! People, we are playing in the major leagues. We are in a very tough division. Last time I checked, The Phillies play in the east. The World Champion Phillies. We need Jake Peavy to go toe to toe with Johan Santana and Cole Hamels, not Arroyo, or Grineske(who cares if misspelled) Harang as your number 1.. We need Carlos Lee or Magglio batting with the baseloaded in te 9th inning vs Brad Lidge or K-Rod( JJ Putz) not Ty Wigginton, Delmon Young or any unproven hitter. We need a BIG BAT not a potential big bat…
Sorry Guys iam just frustrated and burned out. It seems every time we get invoulved in something we lose out. Mets are getting there players, Yankees( Yes, they have the money) Phillies replaced Burrell, Tex might be coming to the Nationals and we got Javier Vasquez, a #3 starter at best and we still need a #1 and #2..zDont count Smoltz or Glavine yet. Get Peavy, sign Sheets or trade. How about Manny Ramierz????
by AlRoBraves95 on Dec 13, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
THINK BIG??? I AM THINKING BIG....BIG PICTURE!!!!!
You say you want Peavy, great so would I, but not if we have to trade Escobar. There is no need to mortgage the future to win now, when in essence we prolly won’t win now. Wren needs to build for next year while fielding a COMPETETIVE team this year. I think Wigginton is a great choice. Did you even look at his stats or did you just think….hmmm, Wigginton doesnt have a big name so he isnt a big bat….Dude, please. You obviously think with your emotions, go do some research. He hit .285 with 23HR and an .876 OPS. Gimme a break…..you’re telling me thats not a big bat? Go punch a porcupine. He would be reasonably priced to bridge for Heyward/Gorys/Schafer….whichever. And if you noticed I said KC was our best bet and we should trade for Greinke…I dont like Arroyo or Harang either, but they would be better then Campillo.
You need to chill out and do some homework before you come back and talk to me son. And rememebr we only have 30 million allegedly left to spend and you want Peavy and Magglio, and then what hope God fills out the rest of the rotation, cause our money would be gone after that…no Smoltz or Glavine or any more bench players…..get real.
by Bravestillidie on Dec 14, 2008 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
Wigginton in left field
Would give a TON of those runs back with his defense though. I’d rather just put Schafer out there.
No to Harang
He’s had some elbow issues and his slider has lost a lot of life, which is why he struggled last year. They’re going to want full value for him and he won’t give that to you.
Victor, it’s clear that you’re quite intelligent, and you know baseball (hey, not just anybody gets asked to write for THT). But I see a lot of comments from you saying this won’t work and that won’t work, and by and large I agree with you. However, I want to know what road you DO see for the Braves. You strike me as the kind of person that might want to tear down and rebuild, but let’s be honest…with a fickle fan base and corporate ownership, it’s questionable at best whether the franchise could withstand a three-year rebuild. So if we rule that idea out, what DO we do? What SHOULD the Braves pursue?
I don’t mean to criticize here; I’m merely wondering what someone who clearly knows their stuff sees.
I think you have me confused with the wrong Victor! I didn’t know they had a guy with a similar name (Victor Wang I think?) when I made this name.
I guess I come off negative sometimes, but it’s usually easier and faster just to peg out the worst choices before really comparing the best. I am kind of a rebuild guy, but not to the point where I’d want to ship out everyone. My second favorite team is the Oakland Athletics, but the Braves have enough money to not have to operate that way.
But since the Braves obviously want to compete, I liked the Vazquez pick up. He’s really underrated. For the other starter I’d say Lowe or Sheets. Obviously depends on how healthy Sheets’s elbow is. Someone like Greinke or Cain would be a good pick up in a trade, but I don’t know if the Braves have enough prospects left to pull it off. Greinke is very good pitcher and his mechanics are fluid so the injury risk is lower.
As for left field, there’s Burrell and Dunn out there still. Defensive liabilities that can hit. Part of the reason Wren is hesitant is because of the defense, and I think it’s great that he’s considering that. Maybe he’s exploring some trade options, but those are the two best to sign.
ha
You’re so totally Victor Wang. Trying to pretend like you’re someone else so when Hardballers come over here and see your posts dicking around and posting pictures of player wives and realize how much of a real actual guy you are and not some number-crunching baseball statistician 100% of the time, they kick you off the staff. I don’t know who you’re trying to fool, but it’s not working here.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
as a Cincinnati fan
Harang will probably be okay. He came back and looked pretty good in September, and he had regained some velocity and command. He shutout the Cards in September. I am not sure if he will be the horse he once was, and continue to put up 220+ innings, with 200 Ks, but I am guessing he will still be an above average pitcher for the next couple of years.
Many of his issues go back to May, when he was called upon to pitch 4 innings in relief in extra innings against the Padres, he started 2 or 3 days prior, and than took his regular turn in the rotation. It was Dusty at his finest.
I am pretty confident that the Reds will not trade Harang and am somewhat confident that they will not trade Arroyo. The only pitcher who they seem interested in trading is Homer Bailey. An according to this analysis at driveline mechanics, trading Bailey might be a good call.
Francour would not be a god fit in Cincinnati. The Reds have an offense made up of players who struggle to get on base. The only way he would really compliment this team would be defensively, because the Reds have terrible defense. The Reds also have a right fielder in Bruce. He can currently play center, but he is a big guy and projects to be a right fielder in the long run (I guess he could move to left in necessary). Plus the fanbase in Cincinnati is a little weary of a guy power hitting outfielder who strikes out a lot. While I thought Dunn was an excellent player much of Cincinnati disagreed. Also Dunn could get on base.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Dec 14, 2008 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
Dusty Baker strikes again!
Harang was sooo underrated before. 200 K’s, 50 BB’s, and 200+ innings? Yes please! Did it with basically two pitches: a 90-91 MPH fastball with good movement and a solid to good slider. His only problem is the home run rate.
2008 was ugly for him. Walk rate up, K rate down, and HR rate up. Even in August and September, his K to BB rate didn’t go above 3. He’s throwing his fastball more often than before and lost life on the slider. can’t find a good analysis of his mechanics, but it’s probably why he’s injured more than anything.
Driveline Mechanics rocks and they should definitely move Bailey.
How about
Delmon Young? He’s been rumored to be shopped. He’s a RH hitter and LF. He’s young. Relatively cheap. And while not a masher in the Burrell/Dunn mode, probably a more complete player than those two. His K/BB rate ain’t great. But he’s a young guy “we” may be able to get on the cheap.
If not him, what about some less savory options? Guillen or Bradley? Yes, both are maniacs. But in a more veteran clubhouse, maybe they can be controlled. At least for 1 year. Sheffield was kinda on his best behaviour for a couple years.
Young and Guillen are awful in the field. I doubt they’re anything better in the field than Burrell or Dunn and don’t have the bats to compensate. Delmon Young is basically Francoeur with worse defense.
Bradley can play defense and rake, but he’s never healthy. He can’t even DH without getting injured so putting him in LF would make Chipper look like Ripken.
lol. I hear you, just trying to think outside the box. Although at this point, I think Delmon is better than Francouer. And Young and Guillen are light years ahead of Burrell and Dunn in the field!!
“He can’t even DH without getting injured so putting him in LF would make Chipper look like Ripken.” Priceless.
by NorCalAtlFan on Dec 13, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
Ryan Braun has francoeuritis as well. Just because our version hasn’t been able to produce like we’d want, doesn’t mean other versions don’t. It’s not ideal, but not everyone can have an OF of .900 OPS guys.
by NorCalAtlFan on Dec 13, 2008 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
just so everyone knows francoueritis is when a player exhibits the negtvie skill set of a power hitter without the power
i.e. strike outs, double plays and lack of walks, then 11 HR in 600 ABs
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
I wouldn’t touch Sheets or Harang or Arroyo with a ten-foot pole. Sheets has averaged 150 innings over the last four years, and the Braves just can’t afford to put forward an eighth of the payroll for a guy that risky. Just not a good idea. Victor already addressed the issues with Harang; once Dusty Baker gets a hold of pitchers, they are never the same. As for Arroyo, well, he’s never been more than a mediocre pitcher; he’s hasn’t posted an FIP below four since he left Boston.
I like Greinke a lot, and I think there’s plenty of reason for Dayton Moore to move him, but I have to believe that Frenchy (and maybe Escobar also) would have to be involved. I have no problem sending one or the other, but not both, even if Jose Guillen does come back the other way. I wouldn’t trade seven years of Escobar and Francoeur for two years of Greinke. I hope we can find a deal that’s amenable to both sides, but I question whether that is possible.
My solution remains Jake Peavy. I guess I look like an idiot beating a horse that died a month ago today, but I still think a Peavy deal makes the most sense for both sides. Enough of this “I’m not calling you unless you call me” stuff. We need Peavy, they need to move Peavy, Peavy says he will only go “kicking and screaming” to the AL and he would consider the Giants as a destination. Clearly he doesn’t have reservations about losing if he’s willing to go to San Fran; it seems he just wants out of San Diego at this point. Revisit the package that was worked with earlier (keep Escobar in it), and get Peavy to Atlanta.
Don’t trade Yunel! He’s great and forcing the team to sign a FA SS will prevent the acquisition of an impact bat. Every FA SS is worse than Yunel, including Furcal. Basically, Lowe + Yunel + Dunn is a ton better than Peavy + Furcal + ? in LF. When you consider injury risk, Lowe and Yunel are straight up better than Peavy and Furcal. And obligatory Jake Peavy has bad mechanics link. If any of you are interested in pitching mechanics you should read that site and Driveline Mechanics because they are awesome.
I really like Greinke as well, but don’t know if we’d be able to pry him away. After all, the Royals keep picking up “pieces” like Crisp and Jacobs so who knows what they want to do.
Escobar is not “great.” He had a fluky hot streak to start the year and end the year; for the 500 PAs in between, he was a .713 OPS player. If you take into account the whole scope of his career (including minor-leagues), that .713 OPS looks much more in line with his true talent level than the .760 OPS with which he finished the season. Escobar’s offense will be easy to replace, and there’s a big gap between his perceived trade value and his actual ability. Now is the time to sell high. Even if he doesn’t go in a Peavy deal, he remains a great trade chip before people realize that he really isn’t as good as he’s looked these past two seasons.
The Braves are not pursuing Lowe, so throw that idea out of your comparison. If there was an ace we could sign, I’d be more inclined to agree with you, but the front office seems unwilling (for better or for worse) to pursue Lowe. So you trade for an ace or you go without, and the Braves can’t go without. I see two options in that case: Jake Peavy and Zack Greinke. Either way, Escobar would likely have to be part of the deal, and that works out perfectly since it allows the Braves to trade Escobar.
It’s not so much “which group of players would you rather have?” as it is “first and foremost, we need an ace.” And the most sensible way to get that ace is to trade Yunel Escobar.
Please explain to me how the .713 OPS is more indicative of his true talent when his OPS in the minors was .781? We’re talking about a guy who walked in roughly 10% of his PAs in the minors and is taking a free pass in roughly 9% of his PAs at the major league level. And you neglect to bring up his defense, which is the most impressive thing about the kid. There’s no way in hell you can replace that.
I’m willing to admit that in 2007 he played over his head offensively…the .364 BABIP alone would explain that. But last season he posted a .766 OPS (.311 BABIP right in line with league average) with a bum shoulder. I see no reason that when fully healthy his can put up a ~.780 OPS while playing arguably the best defense at SS in the majors.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Let me clarify by saying that the ~.780 OPS I reference above is what I feel to be the low end of the spectrum when talking about Yunel’s offensive output. Posting annual OBP/SLG numbers of .365/.435 does not seem out of the question in my mind.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Well, generally players don’t perform as well in the major-leagues as they do in the minors. But if you would rather ignore the principles of sample size and focus on the 100 PAs where he hit .360 with five of his ten homers, go ahead. I think it’s significantly more prudent to focus on the larger sample size, that also happens to correlate far better with his minor-league record.
As for his walk rate, that’s great. Problem is, the doubles from 2007 weren’t real, which makes him more of a .400 slugger than .450, and maybe even worse than that. For one thing, I think his walk rate will start to erode once pitchers realize that he’s not a .300 hitter nor is he a .450 slugger, and since that patience is really his only offensive skill, he remains eminently replaceable at the plate.
His defense was great, I’ll give you that. But for one thing, that could be a fluke, since he never had a special rep for great defense coming up. For another thing, that can be replaced by the whole team. UZR says Escobar added about six runs with his glove, and that can be easily replaced by a return to form from Jeff Francoeur (who dipped to seven runs below average last year) and replacing Mark Kotsay with Jordan Schafer. Just getting a pretty good defensive SS would do just fine. Plus, defense isn’t something you go out of your way to find. If you can hit and pitch, a league-average defensive unit works just fine.
Finally, lose the bum shoulder excuse. His splits don’t bear out the idea that his shoulder injury affected him. He injured the shoulder on June 25th, sliding headfirst. To that point in the season, he was slugging .398; thereafter, he slugged .405. Actually, his best month was September, which came after he was removed from the game on 9/3 due to shoulder pain. So you can forget that reasoning.
Finally, I agree fully with your last statement. I see no reason that when fully healthy he can put up a .780 OPS. There’s nothing there to make me believe that he’s a .780 OPS player. With a normal BABIP, he’ll hit .280, and there is little more to suggest he’ll hit for power, aside from a fluky 2007.
as far as the yunel theory, i respectfully agree to disagree… what immore concerned about is that u feel his defense is a fluke… and your general conception of defense…
we think Scahfer will be an upgrade over Kotsay, but Kotsay is a pretty proficient CF.. and yes Francouer will msot liekly return to his old form… but why would u want to coutnerbalance those increases with a decrease at the most important defensive IF position… Yunel is was well above +25 for most of the year defensively, which is off the charts… the only player near him was Jimmy Rollins (who eventually passed him)… Yunel is the real deal defensively…also, to ur point he wasnt known for his defense in the minors… from what i understood he was very good defensively, at least a plus defender with a plus plus arm… which is what he has shown…
and to say that if u can hit and pitch, defense only needs to be avg… well if you cant hit or pitch shouldnt defense be somthing u keep. We are a relatively good defensive team, and that is soemthing which we should build around… liek the rays did (i hate it that everyone says the rays are the new mold, so i guess im being hypocirtical here, but alas)… great defense makes avg ptiching better, thats a fact…
and as far as his offense goes, he stuggled a bit in his sophomore season, which a lot of players do and i think he canbe a very good player, by all accounts, he is intelligent and works hard on the field and i take beard on his anaylsis that low 700 is the bottom of his potential… if he OPSs anywhere near 800 we have a top flight SS on our hands… and it would be foolish to trade him if we dont have a backup waiting in the wings (which we dont, unless u count Hicks, who is too far away, right now), esp considering there are no viable FA SS options besides Furcal, who i think is too expensive, wont produce much and wont be able to cover his cost with the production e provides over Yunel (if he is better than Yunel at all)
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
I don’t necessarily feel that his defense is a fluke; I’m merely suggesting that it could be. Some comments, though:
Mark Kotsay WAS a proficient center fielder. Last year, he was horrific in Atlanta, posting a -7.3 UZR, even in just two-thirds of a season. If Jordan Schafer can just be a neutral fielder (and all indications are that he’s quite a bit better than that), you just bought back seven runs. You buy back nearly ten more runs if Frenchy goes from his -6.8 last year to his +2.8 from 2007. So it’s not that I WANT to counterbalance those with a loss on the infield, but if that’s the price we pay to bring in Peavy or Greinke, then so be it. I do not believe that the loss of Escobar will cost us much if anything on the defensive side, given the overall improvement we can expect from the rest of the unit.
I also don’t know where you get +25 for Escobar. I don’t own a copy of “The Fielding Bible,” so I don’t have John Dewan’s numbers available anyway. Even so, I’m a much bigger fan of UZR. I’m a huge Tom Tango fan, and he supports Michel Lichtmann and UZR, so that’s where I stand. By UZR, Escobar saved 5.9 runs with his glove. Do you have Dewan’s exact figure, because I’m pretty sure it wasn’t +25. More like +16 or something. Whichever figure you choose, those runs can be replaced (and keep in mind his replacement can make up for some of them by being a better hitter as well).
Teams should focus on defense if they can’t hit or pitch, it’s true. However, I would hope the Braves will build a team that CAN hit AND pitch. In fact, I would trade Escobar in the quest to be able to pitch better. I’m not opposed to defense, don’t get me wrong. But I think pitching comes first, then hitting, then defense. Obviously the defense and the pitching are connected, but as long as you’re an average defensive team (the Braves were a solid if unspectacular 12th in DER last year), I’m happy. Last year we converted 69.4% of balls in play into outs; our world championship team in ‘95 was only slightly better at 69.7. As long as we can hover right around that 70 mark (meaning an opponent’s BABIP of .300), our pitchers shouldn’t be complaining. I don’t doubt that good defense makes average pitching better, but I’d prefer to see us have better-than-average pitching by trading a good defender for a good pitcher.
On the offense, he didn’t so much sophomore slump; he more overperformed as a freshman. No way he was going to keep his BABIP up in the .360s…his decline was merely a regression of his luck to the mean, and the loss of some fluky-looking doubles from ‘07. You say you take Beard on his analysis…what analysis do you mean? I don’t see any analysis there, just an unsupported claim that he thinks Escobar is a .780 OPS player. So believe what you want, but don’t try to say there’s analysis there, at least not that he has shown.
If he OPS’s anywhere near .800, you do indeed have a top-flight shortstop. If he OPS’s closer to .700, well, not so much. We don’t have to replace him with Furcal either. Why not go out and trade for someone like Maicer Izturis, who’s cheap and should be available. Between Izturis and Omar Infante, you’ll get plenty of defense (from Izturis, who’s a whiz with the glove…13.9 UZR per 150 games), and also a fair amount of offense (from Infante). Between the two, you could probably scrounge a +6 UZR and a .740 OPS, which really isn’t all that much worse than Escobar was this year, when you get right down to it. And while you’re at it, you add Jake Peavy to the rotation.
I see only upside in that.
His exact figure was +21
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
You’re bringing up a Maicer Izturis/Omar Infante platoon? Jesus christ…you’re a big advocate of sample size, but it’s okay to assume the .755 OPS Infante had last year in roughly 300 ABs is more in line with his “true talent” than the .695 OPS he has for his career? Give me a break. And just how many games are we supposed to give each of them? Because Izturis looks like shit on a stick up at the plate.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Once again, this is about looking deeper. Infante’s true talent level isn’t .755, but it may not be .695 either. Since 2004, he’s had three mid-.700s seasons, and two seasons in the .600s. One of the two bad seasons, he had a .250 BABIP (2005), and in the other, he lost some time to injury (2007). So, is he a .750 OPS hitter? Probably not. But he’ll be above league-average as a shortstop, in all likelihood.
Then careful what you say about Maicer Izturis. His UZR totals are better than Escobar’s for his career, and the following splits might scare you:
Izturis (career): .272/.337/.381
Escobar (April 17 through Sept. 5): .277/.351/.363
For much of 2008, Escobar was no better than his compatriot Izturis. For the bulk of the season, you were essentially getting Izturis’ production in the shortstop slot. So if Izturis is “[expletive] on a stick,” then Escobar was equally…well, you get the picture.
I’m just throwing this out as an idea, not as the be-all-and-end-all solution. But hey, playing ring-around-the-rosie in the infield worked well for the Angels. You can play the hot hand, play the left/right matchups, play defense, play offense. With Prado, Infante, Johnson, Izturis and Diory Hernandez (and Chipper sidelined for 30+ games), you can have all kinds of fun on the infield. You can reject it out of hand if you like, but there’s more merit in that than you care to recognize. And of course, atop it all, you have Peavy or Greinke.
So, it’s okay to dismiss a bad season of Infante due to injury, but not Yunel? You were willing to break down the splits for Yunel, please do the same for Infante…I am eager to here what you find. And once again “…in all likelihood” is just another one of your opinions.
Also, it’s really cool how you compare Izturis’ career (including hot streaks) to a portion of Yunel’s where he was obviously on a prolonged cold streak. Bravo. And don’t try to feed me bullshit about getting Izturis’ production out of Escobar for “most of the season”. When the calendar flipped to October, Yunel had an OPS of .766 while Izturis was at a .691 OPS.
I’m glad that you rely on UZR, but if you go by +/- Maicer is nothing special. He clocked in at +3 last season. Infante was rated at +1 at SS last season. And that kind of defensive wizardry is not going to make me forgot EScobar when neither of those players are anything special at the dish.
Finally, the Angels had good pitching last season…we didn’t…so of course that hot hand crap in the infield worked for them. 8th in the majors for OPS against (we were 20th), 8th in the majors for team ERA (we were 21st). As you said yourself, good pitching can make the defense look good.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
OK:
1) Injury didn’t change Escobar’s performance. Same production before as after. Infante…clearly the same is not true. But fine, I’ll indulge you. We throw out Escobar’s 2008 due to injury. Then we throw out his 2007 due to luck. What are we left with? Minor-league numbers, and his minor-league numbers just aren’t that impressive.
2) Since when did “likelihood” and “opinion” become synonyms? The average major-league shortstop had a .714 OPS. Izturis’ career OPS is above that level, and it’s likely that he will continue to post an OPS close to .714. Bill James and Marcel both project him to be around .730. So I’m not saying that’s my opinion, I’m saying that it’s statistically likely. My opinion has nothing to do with it. Then, put Infante in there. His OPS is about 20 points below that for his career, but there’s plenty of noise in his data set (including years when he was forced into duty by a talent-poor Detroit franchise, and years when he had terrible luck). So is it a stretch (of likelihood, NOT opinion) to see him pulling his OPS up 20 points? Bill James and Marcel, once again, don’t think so. This isn’t my opinion speaking; it’s simply an objective evaluation of probability. But by all means, go on pretending that it’s just me making stuff up.
3) First, I don’t know what splits you would like me to break down for Infante. Second, it’s not my job to support your case for you. You think this “breakdown” will help your case…go do it yourself. Isn’t that a novel concept?
4) Careful calling Escobar’s middle of the season a “cold streak.” That’s just one of your newfangled “opinions.” It could just be a “normal streak.”
5) Remember that the calendar flipping to October is arbitrary. It just so happens that the season ends after 162 games. Don’t make it sound like a season split is any more or less valid than another split.
6) Izturis and Infante (or WHOEVER replaces Escobar) doesn’t have to make you forget Escobar. Jake Peavy will take care of that.
7) Good pitching can make the defense look good…now you’re catching on! So if we have good pitching (ahem, Jake Peavy), our defense will look better. Pitching wins. Period. Not defense, not offense…pitching. Bats and gloves are important; don’t get me wrong. But after a decade and a half, Braves fans should know that arms are the trump card.
There’s only one way to get an ace, as far as we can see right now. There’s Jake Peavy and there’s Zack Greinke, and either way, you will likely have to trade Yunel Escobar. Unless you really think this team is going anywhere with a rotation fronted by Javier Vazquez, you’re gonna have to get over your Esco obsession.
Love how you bash my argument because of high BABIPs for Escobar and his fluky stats, yet the fact that Infante has had an above average BABIP in 4 of his major league season doesn’t find it’s way into your comments. That, and apparently Jake Peavy is the answer to all my questions. Guess we’ll have to wait and see about that.
Still, you’re better than most on this board. Cheers.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2008 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
There’s a big difference between .330s (Infante), and .360s (Escobar). Plus .330 for Infante isn’t as lucky as .330 for Escobar because Infante hits about 3% more line drives than Esco (and 3% is a pretty sizable difference).
Jake Peavy isn’t the answer to everything, necessarily. But an ace is such a crucial piece of any team, because an ace makes every single other pitcher better. How? Well, if you acquire a #1, suddenly your former #1 pitcher becomes your #2 pitcher, and so on and so forth. Suddenly everyone’s expectations are lower, and suddenly everyone looks better. I don’t care that the ace is Peavy specifically; I’m good with Derek Lowe or Zack Greinke also. But I do think we need an ace above all else, and the Braves seem to have little interest in Lowe and Escobar would have to go to get Greinke as well.
What?
because an ace makes every single other pitcher better.
1. Your logic fails if the teams best pitcher other than the Ace is at best a #3.
2. It doesn’t make other pitchers “better”, in theory it gives them a better chance to win considering they would be facing lesser competition.
1. First, my logic doesn’t fail. If a pitcher’s true talent is as a #3, he will perform relatively better as a #2 than as a #1. Getting an ace allows him to move back one spot, thus making his contribution more valuable, no matter how good he actually is.
Second, we have Jurrjens and Vazquez, who both have the stuff to be #2 starters. Both have performed at #2 level in the past. So I don’t see how your point applies at all.
2. Wrong again. The pitchers don’t face any lesser competition as #2’s instead of #1’s. It’s not like aces pitch all the “hard” games, and the later pitchers pitch the “easy” games. You’re right that the acquisition of an ace doesn’t actually make the pitchers BETTER, per se. But it does make their relative performance more valuable. There’s a league-average #1 starter, and an average #2 starter, and so on. And what I’m talking about here is the relationship of each of your pitchers to that league average. Moving them back a slot doesn’t change their performance, but it does make their performance better relative to the average for their position in the rotation.
It would be the equivalent of signing a big-hitting left fielder, so that your current LF can move to another position where the offensive expectations are lower. The former LF doesn’t get any better, but his contribution does become more valuable. That’s effectively what you’re doing here, only there’s a whole chain where four different guys get to move to positions with lower expectations.
1. It doesn’t matter where the pitcher pitches in the rotation he will not PERFORM better. It does make his contribution more valuable, but that’s not what you said.
2. We basically said the same thing, you just went into greater detail. You even quantified my point
You’re right that the acquisition of an ace doesn’t actually make the pitchers BETTER, per se.
Again, you didn’t say it makes their relative performance more valuable, you said
because an ace makes every single other pitcher better.
Yet, somehow I’m wrong?
if we can trade for izturis that would be fine (but he isnt a logn term option or that good of a short term option),we would liekyl have to give up more value that he would give us. Also, i like infatne as a bench player, spot starter like he was last year, thats where we get the most value from him. but right now with yunel (if you beleive in him) we have our future SS, by trading him we create a hole that is diificult to fill… theres no one in the system i trust to take over down the road (which is always hard to predict)… also if we could get grienke or peavy for Yunel and little more i would be more fine with that… but the fact is thats not gonna be the deal, it will include a couple other prospects, probably Gorkys and Locke (if its peavy, i wont bother speculating ont eh grienke deal as i have no clue).. we are giving up a top pitching prospect (not our best but a damn good one, plus he’s a lefty and from i understand theres a law that says one of yoru 5 ptichers is a lefty) and very highly regarded CF prospect.
im ok tradign prospects for return and im ok tradign yunel for pitching, but we would have to trade both and thats a high price… esp considering what Yunel’s worht is to us right now. However u are right his "slmup was probably more due to an higher BABIP, but theoretically he is still in a position to imporve upon last year, in which he OPSd around 760.. and even if he remains consistent, hsi glvoe plays with that offensive production and would stil put him at or above the league avg. so unless he regresses from this year, whcih there is little to expect he would, he will be slighty above league avg
and since in nto familiar with UZR i wont comment on it, ecept that Iztuirs and his 14 UZR or w/e was in 50 soem games, not exactly the smaple size i liek to see, career he is like a 7.3 UZR/150 according to Fan graphs
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Well thought out reply.
I understand your point about the sample sizes, but it’s unfair to completely toss aside the statistics that support my argument. Fact of the matter is that at the end of season he put up average-to-above average numbers for his position…regardless of how he achieved them. As far as the walk rate goes, the only thing to back up your arguement there is…well, you really don’t have anything at all other than a hunch. Everyone on this site seems to have a hunch, so we’ll have to wait and see about that. I happen to disagree with you, though.
I would, however, love to see a list of SS who you think we could easily replace him that would bring the same OBP skills. Because when I’m looking at the stats from last year what I see is Escobar with the 3rd best OBP for SS that qualify. Even if his walk rate does erode slightly he’s going to be in the top-5. And with his paltry .401 SLG he still cracked the top-10 for that as well. Hanley Ramirez he is not, but Jimmy Rollins has a career OPS of .774 and you’re going to say that’s not valuable? I think at the very least Yunel can sport an OPS of that, more patience at the plate but not as many extra base hits.
And what exactly is your point about defense? You have another one of your hunches that his defense was a fluke? Good lord, I’ll gladly enter into a discussion about baseball with you, but can you bring a little more to the table than your hunches? His defense last year was damn good, and I don’t think there was anything fluky about it. If you can find some actually statistics I’d love to look at them. You’re also trying to justify trading Yunel by hoping that FYF and Schafer can provide increased defense for the Braves. Must be more of your intuition, but how can you automatically assume that FYF is going to rebound from the the 27 point swing he had in the +/- system? And there’s no telling when Schafer is even going to make the team. But I guess it’s okay to get Peavy. It’s not like he has his own question marks, right?
My final statement obviously contained a typo, so way to be a smart ass about it.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not unfair to toss aside fluky-looking statistics, and there are definitely some red flags on those “hot streaks.” Baseball Prospectus put his projection at a .260 EqA, and the only reason he finished at .271 was those streaks. In trying to sort out the true talent level here, I’d say it’s closer to the middle-of-the-season Escobar than the beginning/end-of-the season Escobar.
I’m not sure I would call my thoughts about his defense and walk rate “hunches” so much as I would refer to them as “red flags.” I will fully acknowledge that there is no guarantee his walk rate or defense will decline; I’m merely pointing out things to be concerned about. He could keep right on walking and playing great defense. I don’t know. I’m just mentioning that they aren’t givens. (You’re asking for actual statistics to say that his D is a fluke, but I have none because there’s no UZR for the minors. I can merely note that I never heard anyone mention his incredible glovework until this year.) And while you’re at your criticism of my hunches, I see your hunch of a .365 OBP and .435 SLG (or at least a .780 OPS) unsupported by anything, and those points are far more critical to your argument than these points are to mine. My main point remains centered around the fact that I don’t know if his .760 OPS is representative of his true talent level, and that isn’t just a hunch.
Also, you’re concerned about who could replace Escobar. And the answer is that there isn’t anyone obvious, not without overpaying or giving up yet more prospects in trade. But that just doesn’t bother me. I simply think that Jake Peavy and Zack Greinke are both significantly more irreplaceable than Escobar. I think our offense and defense, on the whole, can make up for the difference between Escobar and his replacement. I think the loss would be small if existent at all, and that the value of an ace would make us more than forget. Is Esco valuable? Sure. But I think he’s as valuable now as he ever will be, and I think he’s replaceable enough that you could move him for baseball’s only truly irreplaceable commodity—a true ace.
Peavy absolutely has his own question marks, as does Greinke. But I’ve mentioned some of Yunel’s as well. And I don’t think it’s exactly a stretch to want to take a chance on an ace instead of a shortstop who looks to be perenially decent but never outstanding.
P.S. Excuse me if I have no pity for your typos. If you care that I point them out, then don’t make them in the first place.
Players finish above BP’s projections all the time, don’t give me that bullshit. They penciled Hanley Ramirez in at .299 EqA and he came in at .320 EqA. Jimmy Rollins was projected at .277 EqA, he came in at .282 EqA. Jose Reyes bested his projection by .002, hell even Christian Guzman was projected at .229 EqA and he was good for a .268 EqA. So don’t bring that up, because I find that statistic one of the worst BP offers.
I’m also wondering why the defense and walk rate are things to be concerned about. You aren’t bringing up any concrete information, you’re merely just saying that you have a feeling…and I don’t buy that. If it isn’t a given that they will improve or stay the same, as I feel, and it isn’t a given that they will get worse, like you feel…than why even use it to try and support your argument?
My “hunch” about his high OBP is supported by his good walk rate in the minors and his good walk rate thus far in the majors…your scenario about pitchers bearing down on him because they know he isn’t a .300 hitter is futile at best and does nothing to sway me, it’s simply your opinion. I admit that the SLG is a bigger question mark, but his percentage of XBH was at 27% throughout the minors and reached 28% during his rookie season. Last year it dipped down to 24%, but that is the very bottom I see it going. If you think he is going to slug worse, than we agree to disagree.
I appreciate your comments on this board because they are far more informed than most people who are gung-ho about trading for Peavy/Greinke. But the fact that you are indifferent as to the amount it will cost to bring either of them in puts me off. Most likely we aren’t going to be competitive next year anyways, so I don’t understand why there is such a rush to go out and get these guys right now. There are several borderline #1 starters that will enter free agency before the 2010 season, and who knows who may become available via trade.
PS…congrats on being a grade-A asshole. We already have plenty of them on this site, but I guess we can always use one more. Welcome to the club.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
Players do beat PECOTA projections all the time; they also miss low all the time. Naming a few players that happened to beat their PECOTA projection does nothing for your case. Whether you like PECOTA or not, its correlation is up near 70%, and while it isn’t perfect, it still gives you a good baseline idea. If it was my only ammo, I’d be in a pretty tough spot, but I’ve got several other pillars to support my notion that Escobar’s true talent level is closer to .710 than .760 (including minor-league performance and luck). Just because you find it to be a bad statistic does not mean that OBJECTIVELY it’s a bad statistic. There you go again with your “opinions.”
I am absolutely bringing up concrete information regarding his defense and walk rate. It is a concrete fact that players can have fluky years on defense. It is likewise a concrete fact that Escobar never had an outstanding defensive reputation. It doesn’t take incredible analytical skills to put those facts together to wonder if perhaps Escobar’s defense wasn’t as good as it seemed. That’s what we call analysis…forming conclusions from known facts. Now my conclusion may be horribly wrong, and I ackowledge that. I’m 100% willing to admit that he might just be this good. It’s just, as I said, a “red flag.” Because there is a distinctly nonzero chance that I am right also. I have never claimed that this WILL happen; simply that there are factors to indicate it could. Same goes for the walk rate…it’s just a red flag, nothing more. It’s no different than Peavy’s balky elbow being a red flag, something that might cause trouble but might not.
With Escobar, it’s not any single red flag, but the collection of them, that makes me doubt his abilities.
I am absolutely NOT indifferent about the cost to get Peavy and Greinke. Hell no. I would not trade Heyward, Hanson, Freeman, Schafer or Rohrbough to get either of them, and I would have severe hesitation including Kelly Johnson. But giving up on 2009 is not an option. Argue the merits all you like (and there are plenty of merits), but Frank Wren ain’t doing that. He’s said as much quite clearly. So yes, there is a rush, because the alternative seems to be (if you read the reports) signing the likes of Oliver Perez and Randy Wolf and Kenshin Kawakami. Nothing wrong with any of those guys at the right price, but not more than one of them. That commits money to guys who are decidedly NOT aces, and that’s the last thing we want to be doing.
Peavy and Greinke are two of the game’s best pitchers, and we are one of few bidders for each. We can’t bid on the free agent market against the Yanks and Sox, so why try? We can beat them any day of the week in the develop-and-trade game, though. Why not play to our strengths? Escobar has value; there’s no denying that. But even if he is a .760 OPS shortstop, you’re talking about a five-WARP player. That’s plenty valuable, but an ace is worth eight or nine WARP. The value simply isn’t equal.
Oh, and he had a normal BABIP last year and he hit .288
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
people are seriously talking about an amazing flying izturis brother as a replacement for escobar? yipes…just yipes
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
It’s merely a suggestion. Perhaps you could add to the productivity of the discussion by making some suggestions of your own.
Alright, I didn't want to get everybody's hopes up...
but if Escobar is traded I will play shortstop for the Braves.
I'm not nearly on your level but I'm going to put my non statistical analysis in there???
I believe that the fan base of the braves would be much more inclined to lose Kelly Johnson for a potential ace rather than Yunel. For whatever reasons, Yunel seems to have made a impact with Bobby, teammates, and the crazy fanbase of the braves.
With that in mind, I also believe it would be easier to replace Kelly Johnson internally with Prado until a long term option presents itself via FA, farm, or trade in the summer. I believe both the Royals and Padres are projected to start young pups at 2b. While these prospect internal value could be high, KJ certainly will be attractive for both teams.
So I think we can agree that I believe KJ is the better option for any type of trade. Now, a trade involving KJ to Padres will need some serious prospect such as Locke, Gorky’s, Morton, and possibly two fillers. Is the statistical value there? I don’t know but are needs being met for the padres? Yes. They would be given a starting 2b at no additional cost and would give Antonelli a Prado role. They would receive a MLB ready pitcher Morton (who could thrive in Pitcher friendly park), two stud prospects, and fillers.
This idea would allow Towers to save face and also accomplish what he needs. We get Peavy which you stated is much more irreplaceable.
The second scenario behind this includes a package with Prado (they need a spot utility guy), Locke, Gorkys, Reyes, Cody Johnson, Parr, and two fillers. Is this statistical value fair? It depends on how desperate Towers is to get rid of Peavy. I hope this scenario plays out because all of the prospect giving up are just that: Prospects. Gorky’s and Locke would be the two biggest loses but I believe their worth Peavy any day of the week.
I like the potential Royals trade but with the moves they have already made this off season it seems that their more inclined to compete. Maybe the young pitcher becomes available towards the trade deadline and they get a good return because of the need to win now. Same goes for Peavy.
I truly believe the braves have the ability to grab Peavy at equal value or less. I also believe it’s as simple as this:
Would you rather have your No. 1 Ace or your starting 2B and some unproven prospects. it comes down to that.
I prefer the Ace with risk that can help the braves for years to come.
Right. That effectively fills left field with Rafael Furcal’s bat (since KJ would’ve been in the lineup anyway). I know they are now talking about doing just this, but I refuse to believe the Braves are dumb enough to pay $10 million a year for a .764 OPS bat in left field.
We’re in agreement about this.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 16, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
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