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Braves Lose Out on the A.J. Burnett Bonanza

Oh, well, it's plan-C time in Atlanta.

Furthering their massive rotation-reconstruction process, the Yankees have won the bidding for Burnett. Major League Baseball sources confirmed late Friday afternoon that the 31-year-old right-hander has agreed to a deal reportedly worth $82.5 million over five years.

Maybe now we'll see the Braves pull some trades. Let's just hope they're not trades of desperation.

What was it I said this morning? Will Frank Wren be up to the task of rebuilding the Braves?

The silver lining in all of this is that at least we drove up the price on the Yankees. We made them guaratee a fifth year, that's a mild consolation prize.

Poll
What starting pitcher should the Braves focus on acquiring now?
Randy Wolf
26 votes
Ben Sheets
269 votes
Derek Lowe
49 votes
Jon Garland
31 votes
Jake Peavy
180 votes
Zach Greinke
222 votes

777 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 111 comments

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Comments

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i disagree

this is great news. not being on the hook through an injury-prone pitcher’s 37th birthday? this is a deal only the yankees should make, and even they will regret it. i’m ecstatic.

by son.of.sourman on Dec 12, 2008 6:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yep

Props to Wren for not panicking and overpaying.

by VictorW on Dec 12, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We agree on this.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 12, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Burnett was a bad bet for five years

by BraveBronco0121 on Dec 13, 2008 12:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if anyone votes for jon garland, i demand a paragraph long explanation.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 12, 2008 6:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I hope Randy Wolf beats Garland

by VictorW on Dec 12, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lmao, man i love all you coments they make my day. you always put a smile on my face. :)

by Brandonba on Dec 12, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The paragraph must include...

…a detailed explanation of how he’s better than Morton or JoJo Reyes (especially when you take the size of their respective contracts).

by buzzdeadwax on Dec 12, 2008 7:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Do wife pictures need to be included?

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 12, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

of course

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 12, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Garland's wife would have to super-hot AND

There would have to be more in it for us fans than being able to look at minimally-clothed or nude photos.

by buzzdeadwax on Dec 15, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sheets & Peavy?

i think we should make a big push for Ben Sheets now that we lost out on AJ, and even though we stopped the Peavy deal, we pulled out on the right time, and what happened because of it? NOTHING. Jake is still within our reach and i’m pretty sure we will explore both of these options and make atleast one of them work

really i would rather have either or both of these guys rather than AJ
if we get Sheets first Jake would very easily wave his no trade clause

by bravesfan1047 on Dec 12, 2008 7:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Greinke

How much is Zack Greinke set to make in 09?

by MarkJ on Dec 12, 2008 7:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He’s in his second year of arbitration, so he’ll probably grab somewhere around $5-$6 mil.

by gondeee on Dec 12, 2008 7:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

there are currently 2 people that read this blog that either A) love to bait me or B) landed on their heads when they fell out of the womb

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 12, 2008 7:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

its now 3.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 12, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

About $40 million a year for two pitchers

What’s their payroll going to be, $1.5 billion? I hope they finish dead last.

by Mekons5 on Dec 12, 2008 7:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sheets

We should give Sheets a look. If the Yankees want him, then we can drive up the price. If they pass on him, we can get him for a reasonable two-year contract. If he performs well for two years, then it worked out and we can either re-sign him or let him walk for more money. If he’s an injury bust, its only two years and before we’ll be making a serious run with our current youth in 2011.

by Arizona Brave on Dec 12, 2008 8:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Arizona Brave

I completely agree with you. I think Sheets could be an excellent short-term number 1 starter for the Braves, but I think they should ALSO make a run at Greinke (though that may prove to be too expensive with regards to Braves’ prospects).

by MarkJ on Dec 12, 2008 8:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sheets and Greinke

I think people forget that he started the All-Star game last year. I know he’s a big injury risk, but that’s why I think a short-term contract would be good. If we all know that we’re waiting to compete in 2010 and 2011, then we need for sure long-term guys who won’t fall apart or risky short-term guys that will work out or be off the books in time to make a run. Greinke falls into the first category, but I worry about what we would have to give up for him. The Tex deal still makes me sick to think of Neftali and Elvis. I don’t want to repeat that. Imagine how sick we would be in 2010 and 2011 if we still have those two.

by Arizona Brave on Dec 12, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, because andrus is so much better than escobar.

um, no

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 12, 2008 8:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Didn’t say he was.

by Arizona Brave on Dec 12, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

then tell me where he’d play. if we’d be SO GREAT WITH ANDRUS…where’s he playing?

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 12, 2008 8:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lets see no on base skills, no power… hed fit right in… (dont worry i realize ur joking)

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 14, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reply

I agree with you about the trade for Tex, but at the same time, we did get Kotchman and Marek out of him. I know a lot of people don’t really care for Kotchman, but I really like him. He’s capable of competing for a gold glove and he swings a pretty good bat. Plus he only struck out 39 times last year. Anyways, back to pitching. Sheets short term until 2010 or 2011. A rotation in 2010, if all are healthy, could include Hudson, Sheets, Jurrjens, Vazquez, and Hanson. I still like the chances of Campillo, Morton, Reyes, and possibly Parr to be really good pitchers once they get full seasons under their belt. There’s a lot of promise for the Braves in the years to come.

by MarkJ on Dec 12, 2008 8:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don’t forget Brett Duvall, who was drafted with the pick we got for losing Mahay.

by cbwilk on Dec 12, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brett Duvall

You’re right. He’s putting up good numbers. Especially for his age.

by MarkJ on Dec 12, 2008 9:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it is DeVall. Kotchman is just a another guy really. He is kelly johnson minus the K’s at a position that usually generates more offensively. kotchman is just keeping the seat warm for Heyward/ Freeman. Campillo’s regression to the mean was pretty evident, his first month as a starter was great but only put up one other above average month. Everything about him screams fluke. Decent command and a nice deuce but i cant see him posting a sub 4.50 era as a starter again

by jeg on Dec 13, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Totally agree about Campillo being a fluke. That just doesn’t happen. Of course, Buddy Carlyle had a nice season as a starter and followed it with a nice season as a reliever, so that wouldn’t be too bad.

by cbwilk on Dec 14, 2008 2:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2010 or 2011?

I’m sick of this argument. Neither have reached the majors and neither should reach the majors before the end of 2011. If they do they will have been rushed and both will suffer for it. What is so good about Andrus other than he is young for his league? He’s displayed zero power and minimal plate discipline. Basically he’s Juan Pierre at SS. Feliz also has a lot to prove, he needs serious refinement on his command and off-speed stuff. Until either of them make the majors and actually perform, you CANNOT consider them anything more than question marks!

If they do actually make the majors and perform better than league average before 2011 then I’ll eat whatever crow comes my way. Until then, they are nothing more than prospects who have less than a 40% chance to become useful major leaguers (if that).

by scstrato on Dec 12, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+infinity

by JFP on Dec 12, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Andrus.

You forgot about the 95 errors he has made in his three minor league seasons. Not the most accurate measure, of course, but when the number is that high he’s doing something wrong. Anyone know if there is a better defensive metric available to minor leaguers?

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 13, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Errors in the minors are a little tricky though. Sometimes it’s the guys that have amazing range and get to balls that others simply couldn’t get to and they throw it away or boot it and they get charged with an error on a ball that only they could reach. I know this happens in the majors too, but frankly, official scorers in the minors totally suck.
I think Elvis is a very good defensive player, in fact I think he’s a very good player overall. I’m always surprised when people run him down, the kid is a player. He’s incredibly young, has probably been promoted too aggressively, and if that calms down a little, he’s going to be a good player.
Still think that the Tex trade was a good one if for no other reason that what scstrato posted, he and Feliz are still very raw and there’s a good chance they never pan out.

by cbwilk on Dec 13, 2008 6:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Understandable, but 30+ errors a year? I don’t know how you can justify that.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 13, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

minor league errors are virtually meaningless. case in point, who are the best 3 defensive shortstops in baseball? Adam Everett and Jimmy Rollins both averaged about 25 a year for a two year period in which they were older than andrus. errors mean next to nothing in projecting how well they will play in the major leagues

by jeg on Dec 13, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

best 2 SS’s

by jeg on Dec 13, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough. I’ll take your word for it.

Was looking for some clarification, that’s all.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Too strong of a statement

I’m not dismissing your point, it is absolutely valid. BUT, I would theorize there are just as many prospects who had high error totals in the minors who never improved. Your point is taken! Error totals should be taken with a grain of salt, but my point is you can’t completely dismiss them either.

Hanley Ramirez comes to mind along with Ryan Braun. Maybe not the best examples, but examples none the less.

by scstrato on Dec 14, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That’s a great point too. And this is where I think scouting and the in person view of a player come into account. Everett and Rollins were both guys that just looked good at short and their errors seemed like ones that would be erased with playing time. Ryan Braun was a guy that from the get go people thought would have to move off third. And Hanley Ramirez was a bit of a head case so who knew what he was going to do.
Again, great point, and it really illustrates how stats and scouting really only work well when used together.

by cbwilk on Dec 15, 2008 1:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

None of the above

Put none of the above on the list and it might just top the leaderboard. I’d rather have Brandon Webb in 2010 than any of these guys from 2009 on.

We need at least one lefty and Randy Wolf might come cheap, but give those starts to JoJo and we could have ourselves a pitcher by the end of the season.

Garland? A pure innings eater with a career 769 OPS against. If him, why not Paul Byrd?

Lowe is way overpriced for a guy his age, and will remain so due to Red Sox interest.

Sheets had a good year, and has a spectacular K/BB ratio. He last pitched 200 innings in 2004 when he was 25. His last serious injury, to his elbow, happened on Sept. 27, 2008. “That’s it,” Sheets said. “That’s all I have. I’ve got a broke arm.”

Peavy has very expensive terms at the end of his contract (he’d want that final year guaranteed, which we definitely shouldn’t do.) Wren has already admitted he offered too much, and has pulled Escobar off the table.

The best value of the group, Greinke, would cost us top prospects and players. Dayton Moore is no fool. At second thought, he just signed Horacio Ramirez. Maybe we can do business there.

by JimK on Dec 12, 2008 8:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

that brandon webb sure is no john smoltz…

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 12, 2008 8:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha there is no baiting on this site at all…

by H0SS on Dec 13, 2008 9:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i dont want webb he isnt a lefty

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 14, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2008 11:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

JoJo

I’m glad you have so much faith in JoJo. I’m not seeing much improvement with more experience. He had plenty of shots last season and never came through. By all means, I hope he proves me wrong this season.

There are cons for every pitcher on the list. Sad thing is, we still hardly have a shot at any of them. I agree with Arizona that at this point, a short-term deal would be best. There just are no long-term prospects on the table that 1) we can afford and 2) would pull through. Let’s plan for 2009/2010 and hope for a better outcome in next year’s winter meetings.

by Gage23 on Dec 12, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

JoJo

I said a pitcher, not an all-star.

JoJo just turned 24 last month. He has never pitched 200 innings in a season, and he still seems a little nervous on the mound.

At JoJo’s age Tom Glavine was 23-29, and would have a losing season before turning things around at age 25 to become a major league star.

by JimK on Dec 12, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he might get it picked up even if he gets injurd, he friggin good, id pick it up

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 14, 2008 9:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Money

If it were the case that any money we didn’t spend this year could be used down the road for a biggest payroll, then by all means start Jo-Jo, Jorge, and Charlie. But I’ve never seen that be the case in sports. So if we have money to spend and just need a stop gap, let’s go with someone with a higher potential pay-off in Ben Sheets. But, I’d be happy with Smoltz, Jurrjens, Vazquez, Glavine, Reyes, Campillo, and Morton as starters throughout the season.

by Arizona Brave on Dec 12, 2008 8:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Best case scenario for the Braves right now (imo)

1.) Trade for the Royal’s Zack Greinke, but only if it doesn’t involve Escobar.

2.) Sign Ben Sheets to a 3yr deal as long as it’s for less than $40 million.

3.) Then with whatever money is left, try to resign Smoltz, Norton, and Ohman in that order.

4.) If Guillen isn’t involved in the Greinke deal, go out and sign one of the lower tier corner outfielders like Juan Rivera. Now if the price for Bradley is reasonable and Wren can fit him in the budget, then I would definitely go with him instead.

by ChipperTeixeira89 on Dec 12, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

ChipperTeixeira89

That’s not a bad scenario, but unfortunately I think it would require Escobar to get Greinke. The deal the Braves were offering for Peavy would probably have to be about the same to get Greinke. I could be wrong about that though.

by MarkJ on Dec 12, 2008 8:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sorry

but that’s about the most ridiculous assertion i’ve ever read. Greinke is no where near the pitcher Peavy is and on top of that he’s only controlled for two more years. How do you justify that Greinke would cost the same as Peavy in trade?

by scstrato on Dec 12, 2008 11:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reply

He just turned 25 less than two months ago. He pitched over 200 innings with a 3.47 era and he went 13-10. Keep in mind he’s playing for the Royals where he doesn’t get hardly any run support. He’s set to make only 5-6 million in 09. Oh, and keep in mind the Royals don’t even want to trade him so it would take more to convince them to do so.

by MarkJ on Dec 13, 2008 12:01 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True

I’m not saying Greinke isn’t good. But he’s no where close to Peavy. It’s arguable whether or not the Royals want to trade Greinke. Regardless, he’s put up decent stats twice in five years. That makes him inconsistent at best. Peavy has pitched similarily every year except for 2006. One year of Greinke does not equal five years of Peavy … not to mention that Peavy is controllable for the next four years. Greinke is only controllable for two. Greinke’s two year salary is the ONLY thing that is preferred over Peavy.

by scstrato on Dec 13, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

scstrato

I completely understand what you’re saying, and I’m not saying Greinke is as good as Peavy. I’m saying look at the situation. The Padres have to trade Peavy and clear payroll while the Royals have no intention to trade Greinke because he doesn’t take up much of their payroll. While it seems the Braves would have the most leverage in a trade for Peavy, it is undoubtably the Royals with the leverage in a Greinke to Atlanta trade giving them the opportunity to drive the price way up.

by MarkJ on Dec 13, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Theoretically you are right

KC does have more leverage than SD, but that hasn’t stopped Towers from asking for a ridiculous return. The bottom line is, Peavy is proven and controllable for a longer term (not cheaper). Greinke is good, but doesn’t have the track record and can become an FA in two years.

I am basing my opinion on what the rumored price from Towers vs. what I feel Greinke would command. I still don’t see how Greinke would cost as much in a trade.

by scstrato on Dec 13, 2008 1:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

re

I may be getting away from the point a little bit, but since Greinke does play for the Royals, he is a little more under the radar because he doesn’t have a chance to win. If the Braves were to get him, they would probably try and sign him to an extension and more than likely to a lesser amount than to Peavy. With regards to Greinke and Peavy, I think we are basically on the same page, we just have a difference of opinions on their values which is totally fine.

by MarkJ on Dec 13, 2008 2:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

I also agree that the Braves would want to sign him long term. However, Greinke has publicly stated he would rather go year to year until he reaches free agency. Now whether this would change with a change of scenery I can’t say, but it gives me cause for concern and would make me want to pay less for him unless I could negotiate the right to try before agreeing to a trade.

by scstrato on Dec 13, 2008 2:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

re

Of course. I’m sure the Braves would address his long term plans before making a deal. I totally agree.

by MarkJ on Dec 13, 2008 2:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You gotta look at the salaries

Part of Peavy’s trade demand was having his option picked up, which makes him about $80M over 5 years. Greinke is in arbitration, so he’s going to make $5 next year and probably $7 to $9M the year after (I think). So that should be about $12-14M for 2 years.

Last season, Greinke put up a 4.07 tRA in the AL league. You can subtract about .3 for switching to the NL which makes it 3.77, which is right around what Peavy had in his Cy Young year. You can multiply by .92 to convert it to ERA scale and you get a 3.46 tERA. So Greinke is a very good pitcher, but we’ll say he’s worse than Peavy since Peavy has a better track record.

If we say Peavy is worth $22M, then his contract is about $6M below market value. That makes him worth $30M below market value over the life of the contract. If we say Grienke is a $19M a year pitcher, then he’s worth about $25M of surplus value over the life of his contract. The market’s a little screwy right now so the prices might not be entirely right, but you get the point. Throw in Peavy’s no trade demand and the fact that only 3-5 teams can even bid on him, and you’ll see why their prices are similar.

by VictorW on Dec 13, 2008 11:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Greinke’s value is very close to Peavy’s. Every watched Peavy pitch? duplicate his arm action and feel the stress it puts on your shoulder and elbow. he wont last and he has already begun to have arm problems. Greinke is a much safer bet to stay healthy as well as continue to improve while Peavy has peaked

by jeg on Dec 13, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Greinke was on the 60 day DL a season or two ago. I didn’t know why so I looked it up and, for whatever reason, it amused me that the reason was “psychological issues.” Seems like he’s over them now.

Here’s a pitching mechanics analysis of Greinke.

He has clean mechanics that look effortless up there, and as scouts say, real prospects make it look easy.

Even if the Braves don’t trade for him, I hope they throw big money at him during the 2010-2011 offseason.

by VictorW on Dec 13, 2008 6:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Greinke is the prototype. Plus command, Plus control, 2 Plus FB’s, solid curve, good changeup, but just ok slider. 4 seamer up to 95. athletic, young, no major injuries, probly was called up to soon though. he projects to be one of the top 10 pitchers in mlb possibly as soon as next year

by jeg on Dec 14, 2008 4:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Trading for Greinke

Any trade with KC should include our prospect Kala Ka’aihue. (Ka-la Ka-i-a-who-ee).

That way the Royals could eventually platoon him at first base with his very talented lefty hitting brother, Kila Ka’aihue, from Kailua, HI.

Say fast: Kala and Kila Ka’aihue, from Kailua.

by JimK on Dec 12, 2008 9:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think I even know how to, well maybe with your pronunciation guide, but still can’t.

by MatM on Dec 12, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

brothers born on the same day one year apart. craziness.

by yondaime4 on Dec 12, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why not sign Ben Sheets?

It seems Wren has no interest in Sheets, whys that? Injuries obviously, but Burnett also has a history of injuries and it didnt stop the Braves from offering him the moon. Maybe the Brave scouting has red-flagged Sheets as a major health risk and not Burnett?

Personally I think its worth the risk in signing Sheets for 2-3 years. In my book, when healthy, Sheets is a better pitcher that Burnett. Also, a big plus is that we dont have to give up any players in signing Sheets (do we even give up a 2nd round draft pic?). I like Greinke but we’d have to give up some good talent to get him. Same with Peavy.

As for Wolf, Lowe and Garland, forget it, there all just also-rans. We need to get a #1 guy.
My drathers are: 1) Sheets, 2)Greinke and 3) Peavy. Forget the others

As for as obtaining Greinke, we may as well get Jose Guillen in the deal. He’d fill our cleanup hole. Am sure the Royals wouldnt mind parting ways with Guillen since he and the KC org had issues last year.

Also, someone mentioned in another post why not wait and use the $ for next years free-agents… well, the list of prospective 2009 FA’s doesnt look to inviting to me. Infact I didnt see a pitcher worth spending any $ on. Maybe I missed somebody but the point being why wait and possibly (probably) get outbid or worse, overpay. In my book Ben Sheets is worth the risk of a 2-3 year contract at 11-13 million a year.

Lastly, I think Wren is doing fine. He stole Jurries and Gorkys from Detroit last year. Last weeks Javier Vasquez move was a good deal. According to a source Wren was supposed to be the most prepared GM in Vegas this last week. He can’t force players to sign or other GMs to make deals.

by jbird29 on Dec 12, 2008 10:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Possible 2010 Free Agent SPs...

Starting Picthing.
Josh Beckett
Eric Bedard
RIch Harden
Tim Hudson
John Lackey
Cliff Lee
Brett Myers
Brad Penny
Brandon Webb

Should the Braves wait a year for one of those guys? Beckett, Lackey, Webb certainly better options than Sheets. Bedard and Harden in the same risk catagory as Sheets.

by jbird29 on Dec 15, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

webb & beckett have options that are most definitely going to be picked up.

lackey…THATS the man that interests me

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Does anybody think...

that there is a deal that could land us Peavy if we included KJ and not Escobar? If so, who do you think we would have to give up along with KJ?

by mvandonsel on Dec 12, 2008 10:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

mvandonsel

I guess it depends on how desperate the Padres get. There’s a chance they may take that. I think Johnson has great potential to be a top ranked second baseman (or maybe outfielder).

by MarkJ on Dec 13, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have been playing with some things in my head. I don’t know, I guess I am of the opinion that we aren’t missing out on much by not signing Burnett, especially since he is often injured and ended up signing for way too much. But the Yankees wanted him, and they can afford that price tag, so more power to them.

Now I do not want to mortgage our future, but what I have been thinking is if we can put together a reasonable trade for Peavy with KJ as the centerpiece, then we could keep Escobar and sign Orlando Hudson, who is pretty much done in Arizona. Now don’t get me wrong, I love KJ, he is a really good hitter, but All Thumbs Jefferson does have some fielding problems. I know that Hudson is older than KJ, but while I was in Arizona I saw him play several times and he is solid defensively and while he may not hit as well as KJ, their numbers are relatively close. I also know that he has gotten hurt the last couple of years; however, in my opinion the injuries were flukes and I do not believe that they say anything about his durability.

After that, I believe that we should go after Sheets/Lowe 3/33 million and see which one we get. Then we go after Adam Dunn offer him 3/42, which would be a huge upgrade in LF. I would like to see us get a stop gap at center, either Jim Edmonds or Mark Kotsay (yes, I said it. mainly for Jamie though) signing either one to a 1-2 year deal. I would also be open to taking a chance on Baldelli providing that he is healthy (but I don’t know if you can fully recover from what ails him). Then we pray that Frenchy doesn’t suck this year.

Hopefully our rotation would be: Peavy, Sheets/Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Smoltz/Campillo/or whoever.

For our fielders we would hopefully have like McCann, Kotchman, Hudson, Escobar, Chipper, Dunn, Kotsay/Edmonds/Baldelli, and Frenchy.

Hey, maybe these are pipe dreams, maybe the salaries I have listed are way off, or hell maybe I will get reamed for this post. Regardless, it has been some stuff that I have been thinking about lately. You know? How can we compete this year, yet not mortgage our team’s future?

by mvandonsel on Dec 13, 2008 1:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

mvandonsel

Of course this is all under your scenario with the Padres taking Johnson instead of Escobar for Peavy. While I’m sure most Braves fans would love to see this happen, I don’t think it’s possible and here’s why. I strongly believe if the Braves trade Johnson, they like will be filling that gap with Prado and rightfully so. I think he is ready for a starting job. If for some reason the Braves do have interest in an infielder, they will likely go after Furcal before (if ever) Hudson. They would be more likely to move Escobar or Furcal to play second than they would be to signing Hudson.

I think if the Braves where to get Peavy, there would be zero chance of them going after Sheets. There would be no reason to go after Sheets if you get Peavy. They could use that money to grab a power hitting outfielder. I don’t think the Braves want to take a chance on Baldelli for health purposes, I think Edmonds might be retiring, and Kotsay isn’t the power hitter they’re looking for for the middle of the lineup. But I think Dunn may be a good idea although I dislike his strikeout rate.

Recap – With the Braves having roughly 30-35 mil left to spend, they just can’t afford a Hudon (or Furcal), Peavy, Sheets, and Dunn. It certainly would be nice though.

by MarkJ on Dec 13, 2008 1:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Capuano and Cabrera

While these guys aren’t the answer to our problems, wouldn’t it make sense to kick the tires and see how much they would cost us as a reclamation project. They both have some talent, and we could see what McDowell can do with them. I would rather take our chances with what we have then give a significant contract to the other free agent pitchers we have talked about. Unless the Peavy thing turns around, I think we should take our chances with the young guys, and the old men (smoltz, glavine) if they can pitch. I know it has been said before by one of you, but we can wait and use the money next year. Wren would be smart to save the money rather than waste it on someone who will surely disappoint us and eat up cap room.

by gutisking on Dec 12, 2008 11:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Save the money, then lower ticket prices!

by 10-4 on Dec 12, 2008 11:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good luck under that NY microscope AJ.

I’m now excited to see just what all these talks Frank Wren reportedly had during the Winter meetings that he was waiting on a couple things to happen. I’m sure AJ was one of those things.

by 10-4 on Dec 12, 2008 11:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

One more thought.

The Yankees come to Turner Field this year, so at leastwe can boo the hell out of him if he pitches against us. Before he shuts us out anyways….

by 10-4 on Dec 13, 2008 12:04 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

wrong....

I’m not saying Greinke isn’t good. But he’s no where close to Peavy. It’s arguable whether or not the Royals want to trade Greinke. Regardless, he’s put up decent stats twice in five years. That makes him inconsistent at best

greinke has put up good stats 3 years(and one year he only pitched 6 innings). so, he has put up good numbers 3 of his first 4 FULL years in the majors for a team that doesnt hit, doesnt field, and he’s in the AL where pitcher’s era’s are inflated by almost a 1/2 run. he hasnt been inconsistent. the kansas city royals have sucked. if your looking at win/loss and your debating a kansas city royals pitcher, then you’re extremely mistaken.

now peavy, on the other hand, plays in the nl and has spent 80 games/year for 7 years in the most pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors for 3 years running (and top 2 or 3 for its existence). jake peavy’s career era away from petco park is 3.80 (over a full run’s difference). when put in the same situation, these guys could be very similar pitchers.

by ryan c on Dec 13, 2008 1:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Greinke

I think Greinke could be a 20 game winner if he played for a winning team that could give him more run support.

by MarkJ on Dec 13, 2008 1:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So...

not for the Braves then.

by someguy917 on Dec 13, 2008 1:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm

Greinke pitched well in his first year. Sucked in his second. Could not pitch at all in his third (for whatever reason). Sucked so bad in his fourth he was relagated to the bullpen, but I’ll admit he found something while there. His fifith was by far his best year and he still couldn’t match Peavy.

2008 Stats:
Greinke – 1.28 WHIP, 8.14 K/9, 3.26 K/BB, .257 BAA
Peavy – 1.18 WHIP, 8.62 K/9, 2.81 K/BB, .229 BAA

Career Stats:
Greinke – 1.28 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 9.7 H/9
Peavy – 1.19 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 7.8 H/9

3 year average away stats:
Greinke – 1.40 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, .264 BAA
Peavy – 1.26 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, .235 BAA

3 Years split stats vs Lefties (stronger opponent):
Greinke – .281/.333/.465/.798 (avg, obp, slg, ops)
Peavy – .248/.316/.406/.721 (avg, obp, slg, ops)

Peavy is a superior pitcher in every way. He’s superior at home, away, longevity wise and short term. He’s signed for a longer term. The ONLY benefit Greinke has going for him is cost.

by scstrato on Dec 13, 2008 2:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

By the way

I failed to mention … when you’re looking at the 2008 stats, remember that Peavy pitched injured for the better part of the year.

by scstrato on Dec 13, 2008 2:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m still undecided when it comes to Grienke. What kind of ceiling do you think he has? #2 starter at best?

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 13, 2008 2:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Based solely on his historical MLB stats, yeah – I think he can reach number 2 starter territory. He seriously needs to find a more effective pitch against lefties though, his OPS against is not good against them. If he can improve in this area I see no reason why he can’t reach the “just shy of Ace” level. But that’s best case scenario in my mind.

by scstrato on Dec 13, 2008 10:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That lefty split is ugly.

I’d say Greinke proved himself to be an ace last year. His career K to BB ratio is right around 3 and he’s getting close to striking out a guy per inning in the last two seasons. That is if you consider a guy who can put up a consistent sub 3.6 ERA an ace, though consistent and ERA are two pretty contradictory terms.

by VictorW on Dec 13, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can see that argument when considering his overall numbers, but my personal opinion is that a true Ace is a much more well rounded pitcher who can shutdown lineups regardless of who’s in it. Greinke is dominant against RHB’s but league average (if not slightly worse) against LHB’s. If he were to face say the Phillies, odds are he’s not going to put up a quality start much less shut them down.

There are many interpretations on what “Ace” means, who is to say which is right? Just presenting my argument against is all.

by scstrato on Dec 13, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Greinke has the stuff to dominate. looking at his ML career vs LHB, in 04’ LH hit .251, RH hit .262, in 07’ LH hit .266, RH hit .263. however, in 05’ LH hit .340, RH hit .279. Greinke allowed LH to bat .287. he has had 2 bad years vs LH and 2 good ones but at least at some point he has shown the ability to get LH’s out

by jeg on Dec 14, 2008 4:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

re

good one. hopefully they will be soon.

by MarkJ on Dec 13, 2008 1:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

As long as he’s affordable via trade, get Grienke as he is young and can grow with our youngsters that are on their way. As long as we only give up a K. Johnson (Prado should be able to take over while doing an adequate job) and perhaps a lower teired top prospect. like Hernandez and/or Medlen? As long as Heyward, Hanson, Schafer, Freeman, Rohrbough, and Locke remain untouchables.

Convince John Smoltz to stay.

Try for a cheap starter or two. Such as R Johnson or J Garland?

Try for a cheap project starter like D Cabrera? When healthy, C Capuano?

Grab a cheap Ty Wiggington to man left field, and perhaps a Willy Taveres as insurance for Blanco and to use as a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement.

Use the money we saved to resign/extend Chipper and other veterans?

A few thoughts.

by BBJ on Dec 13, 2008 2:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Prado is a worse defender and has put together 254 PAs worth of good numbers…numbers that came along with a .357 BABIP, mind you.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 13, 2008 2:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the only STARDOM in prado’s future is if he gets shot to the moon

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 13, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thank God!

If we had given Burnett that contract, it might have been Wren’s worst move as Atlanta’s GM and it would have shaken my confidence in him. I thought 4/$60M was pushing it and think 5/$82.5M is just insane. You could almost certainly get Ben Sheets, a virtually identical pitcher, for 2/$32M or 3/$45M. I hope we target him next and soon. As for LF, there are still so many options out there that we can afford to keep that need on the back-burner. A rotation of Sheets, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Campillo and Morton/Reyes is fine and, if we do get Sheets, we will be able to afford a solid vet with some upside to fill out the rotation. Now, if Smoltz comes back and can start, then the unit goes from solid to potential awesome.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Dec 13, 2008 3:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ben Sheets

The injury pattern concerns me the most. I think Texas will take a shot on him.

by JimK on Dec 13, 2008 11:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

once again....

nl vs. al. dh vs. no dh. weak division vs. stronger division. offensive stats are inflated in the al. lefties are better.

point being, there is no telling how peavy will respond away from petco. at least we know, in a somewhat neutral park, that greinke will give 3.50 era baseball in the nl for a much cheaper price. peavy will probably provide the same but cost more in prospects and cash. i will admit, peavy is a better player, but not that much better.

by ryan c on Dec 13, 2008 12:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I like that point much better

I’m not saying Greinke isn’t good. In fact I would love to see us make a trade for him (if the price were right in prospects/players). My only argument was that in Trade Peavy would likely command more.

I’ll even go a step further and say that I am now completely against trading for Peavy. The cost in lost prospects, potential concessions and several other factors have soured me completely on him.

by scstrato on Dec 13, 2008 1:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kenshin Kawakami

MLBTR says we’re interested in this 33 year old Japenese starter. mehhh

by SayHeyWerd on Dec 13, 2008 4:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i seriously cannot believe jon garland and randy wolf have nearly the same amount of votes. do 21 readers really hate me THAT FUCKING MUCH?

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 13, 2008 5:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes

"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)

by FrankyWren on Dec 13, 2008 6:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to believe it’s only 21. Oh wait, it’s up to 25 now.

by cbwilk on Dec 14, 2008 2:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well u now randy wolf is only 90 78 in the W/L column (i think bigjoe might kill someone for this<—) and his era is a 4.26 so hes not very good, duh

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 14, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wolf’s career FIP is 4.33. garland’s is 4.74. and poor wolf has been on some dog shit teams compared to garland. those phillies teams from earlier this decade when wolf was throwing up sub-4 ERAs were wretched.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

*in comparison

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Dec 15, 2008 12:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i know wolf is a pretty good pitcher, he has a much hgihg K/BB ratio and as u mentioend his FIP is better. and if we are forced to have one of these guys id rather have Wolf, but i dont know why we would want either. I agree, i especially dont want Garland (unless its Christmas Garland , see what happened there was..)

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 15, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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