Burnett Keeps Braves in Limbo
Here is what we think we know:
- The Yankees have agreed in principle with C.C. Sabathia, and are pursuing A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Ben Sheets.
- According to the Braves beat writer D-Fab, Chipper Jones, a friend of Burnett, didn't sound too confident about the Braves chances of getting the right-hander, though he was hopeful.
- One source says the Braves have made a new offer to Burnett; a five-year $80 million offer.
- A different source says that fifth year is guaranteed, and that will prompt the Yankees to revise their offer.
- Still another source says the Braves have NOT offered Burnett a five-year guaranteed contract, that fifth year would be based upon incentives.
I have no solid or consistent opinion about the whole Burnett saga, but I feel like the team is paralyzed until he makes a decision, which I hope will come soon, one way or the other.
Some other non-Burnett news and thoughts:
- It looks like the Royals will go to the ex-Braves well one more time, as they are close to signing Horacio Ramirez.
- I had a thought that we might make an interesting partner in a Jake Peavy three-way trade. We already know that the Padres covet several of our prospects, if they're not the major ones but the second tier, then perhaps we could get a part that we need in return for helping the Cubs acquire Peavy.
- K-Ros has a source that thinks the Braves are prepared to let John Smoltz walk... I still think all that talk is BS.
- Meanwhile Tom Glavine is ahead of schedule in his recovery, and his agent indicated that if he doesn't sign with Atlanta, then he will likely retire.
- Newly acquired starter Javier Vazquez chatted with fans today online.
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58 comments
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Comments
Smoltz
Chipper’s been posting on DOB’s blog – says “Smoltzie’s not going anywhere guys”
by Hizilla on Dec 10, 2008 7:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
DOB called Chipper to see if it was him and it was not.
- Leah
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Catcher's Blog - Braves blog by a huge Braves fan.
by mccannfan on Dec 10, 2008 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just out of curiosity but who would the Cubs be sending to us. The only player they have that would fill a hole on our roster is Soriano and he is way to expensive.
by jack dein on Dec 10, 2008 7:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Call it a Ted Lilly moment, if the Cubs need to off-load salary and can’t pawn off Marquis on anyone.
by gondeee on Dec 10, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would take Lilly but he’s not the top of the rotation starter we need.
by jack dein on Dec 10, 2008 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At least maybe if we got Lilly from the Cubs, he wouldn’t throw our hitters anymore.
- Leah
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Catcher's Blog - Braves blog by a huge Braves fan.
by mccannfan on Dec 10, 2008 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmm
well AJ will HOPEFULLY come to the Braves
i just cant see Smoltz anywhere but Atl. the Braves will give him all he needs, and its great to hear Tom is moving along to
hmm well the cubs do have alot of good players but i dont see that happening
but i’d rather get JP than any thing the cubs would give us
by bravesfan1047 on Dec 10, 2008 7:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think it’d be that bad of an idea for us to try to spin a minor prospect off for Marquis. He’s probably around a 4.80-4.90 true talent pitcher next year over 170-180 innings. That’s 17.5 runs above replacement or about 1.75 wins. Now, Marquis is making almost $10 million next season, but his salary is expiring next off-season and it wouldn’t be a disaster to overpay him by ~$2 million as he’d certainly strengthen the rotation’s depth next year. Definitely something to consider if we’re actually going to attempt to compete next year.
by 17843 on Dec 10, 2008 7:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would really not like to have Marquis again. He walks to many and doesn’t strikeout enough people. I would like to stay away from guys who give up more hits than innings pitched.
by jack dein on Dec 10, 2008 7:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The difference between Jurrjens H/9 and Marquis H/9 is negligible over a full-season. Marquis also gets ground balls in half the balls in play and has posted extremely low LD% and BABIP over his entire career. He’s not a terrible play especially if the Cubs ate salary.
by 17843 on Dec 10, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s really tough to compare the two because Jurrjens has only pitched a little over one season and Marquis has nine years to go over. Where the differences come up is that is that Jurrjens is only 22 and Marquis is 30. Jurrjens first full season in the majors is roughly equal to Marquis’ best season in the majors which came in 2004 with the Cardinals. Marquis would just be another back end of the rotation starter, which we already have plenty of those. Just how much of his salary would the Cubs have to eat to make this trade. In my book he’s not worth much more than $4 mil. and I really doubt that the Cubs would eat that much.
by jack dein on Dec 10, 2008 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’d have to regress by a ton to only be worth $4 million.
You completely missed the point I made, which was not that they are similar pitchers, but that Jurrjens managed to survive giving up a hit an inning. Marquis finds a way too.
And we don’t have plenty of guys who have 9 years of a track record as a #4 starter. We actually have none of those.
by 17843 on Dec 10, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
whatever if you want Marquis on your team then go with it. All I’m saying is that the guy is a back end of the rotation starter and nothing more. He is way overpaid and there are a lot of guys that we could go after that are cheaper and either the same as him or better.
by jack dein on Dec 10, 2008 9:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s only slightly overpaid. Do the math for yourself. Marginal wins are anything from $4.4-5.2 million in value, shooting the middle of that gives you $4.8 million. Project his preformance out and see how many wins he’ll be worth.
I did the math earlier in this thread and had him conservatively worth about 1.75 wins next year. That has him worth anywhere from $7.7 million to $9.1 million. So yeah, he’s overpaid, but not egregiously and we’re basically picking him up on a one year deal. You can get comparable production from others like Jon Garland, but you’re looking at giving him a multi-year deal. Marquis is 30, has a fairly stable track record as a high 4.00s, 180s IP guy, and fairly athletic. There’s no reason to project a sudden collapse in his preformance that would be necessary to make this a terrible move for the Braves.
by 17843 on Dec 10, 2008 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you forget that wins are somewhat unimportant when comparing pitchers. Marquis has never been on a bad team. The teams that he has been on have all had good offenses. He played for the Braves from 2000-2003 the worst team was in 2001 at 88-74, the St. Louis Cardinals from 2004-2006 the worst team was in 2006 at 83-78, and the Chicago Cubs since then with the worst team in 2007 at 85-77. In 9 years he’s only been on three teams that didn’t win 90 games in a season, so yeah he’s going to get a lot of wins.
by jack dein on Dec 10, 2008 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh. I’m no moron. Wins as in a measure of value.
by 17843 on Dec 10, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i’d prefer if we didn’t have jason marquis, so i wouldn’t need to look at my jason marquis/AJ zapp rookie card
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 10, 2008 7:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ve got that signed by both of them. They’re pretty…interesting guys.
by cbwilk on Dec 11, 2008 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Burnett at 5/$80M is fucking garbage
Please let the Yankees sign him at that price.
And I will be MAJOR bummed if we let Smoltz go and decide to bring back Glavine back. Glavine was bad last year even before he got hurt. What is the point?
by get swoll yunel on Dec 10, 2008 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sign Kimbo Slice
And Nikolai Valuev.
by TradeAndruw on Dec 10, 2008 9:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He could charge the mound and KO Cole Hamels in one punch
by someguy917 on Dec 10, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
why would we want kimbo, so he can get knocked out in 14 seconds again?
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 10, 2008 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Smoltz might be gone, but the reporting so far is silly
He’s said all he can do anymore is bullpen, preferably closer. These guys are saying he could be a dominant starter, which is ridiculous. I dunno who is going to cough up $10 million to find out if he can stay healthy. I want to see him stay, but if it means losing out on real starter, we gotta say goodbye. Gonzo is our closer, and I doubt Smoltz wants to be a setup guy and I doubt we want to pay $10 million for a setup guy with questionable health.
by Mekons5 on Dec 10, 2008 9:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why not
I am still think we end up with Jake Peavy by the end of the meetings. I think Burnett signs with the Skanks and we go back to the Padres and say here is the offer lets make a deal.
Padres Receive: Yunel Escobar, Charlie Morton, Blaine Boyer, & Jeff Locke.
Braves Receive: Jake Peavy, & a Reliever.
by mauck98 on Dec 10, 2008 9:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
agree with Peavy
Is there any reason we can’t get back in on the Peavy talks other than stubborness by two GM’s? Why can’t we go after Burnett and Peavy. I understand that Escobar is a lot to give up, but we are talking about a 27 year old Cy Young winner for the next four years. A starting shortstop is a little easier to find than a Cy Young winner. Am I the only one who thinks Wren should swallow his pride a little and get the Peavy thing going again? Who knows, just maybe that would help swing Burnett our way, too.
by MurphyHOF on Dec 10, 2008 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Escobar is a young SS under team control for 5 years that’s way below market value. He’s the probably the second most valuable shortstop in baseball when you consider those factors, behind Hanley Ramirez. Peavy’s cost, no trade requirement, and injury risk isn’t worth Yunel + good prospects.
by VictorW on Dec 10, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you have to give up Yunel to get Peavy, then Burnett is better, even with the injury risk.
by VictorW on Dec 10, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Towers
Is ubelievable, he still thinks that he has the leverage to get a lot of good players in any deal for Peavey.
He let a really good and overpriced offer from the Braves get away and has been trying to get the best prospects from the Phils and Cubs for Peavey, when he has little to no leverage. If anyone in this saga needs to swallow some pride, it needs to start with Towers.
He has an inury risk pitcher, who has a no trade clause, and a quarter of his payroll tied up. The payroll he has to trim by 24 million, according to reports, and he is still asking for too much in a deal. He is still blabbering on to the press every ten minutes about the details of the deal and the Cubs and Phillies remain quiet.
Seems a lot like the time when he was trying to bend Wren over and take 5 of our youngsters. I think with the Cubs bloated payroll and limited trading pieces, the Towers ends up keeping Peavey and having to trade a guy like Adrian Gonzalez.
by JFP on Dec 10, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he DOES have the leverage. burnett is going to new york. we need an ace. explain to me how thats towers not having the edge.
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 10, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I a deal with the Cubs he has no leverage.
He has a one team market and he has to trade this player. Until Peavey indicates that he will waive his NTC for some other team(s), there is no leverage for Towers.
by JFP on Dec 11, 2008 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes there is. he can, you know, not trade him.
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 11, 2008 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he has to cut salary, than he has to cut salary. It’s similar to 2003 when we traded Milwood for Estrada because of payroll. JS had no leverage then, and it looks like Towers has very little leverage now. On the other hand, the Braves don’t have to trade for him or any other player if they feel the price is too high. FW can easily say that he’s not going to mortgage the future, and no fan in their right mind is going to complain about that.
by buzzdeadwax on Dec 11, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing I get a kick out of
Is that all the media reports are from Towers. Talking about a trade in the media is a sure fire way to alienate the other side and not promote good will in negotiations. Towers is a moron.
by Hizilla on Dec 11, 2008 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Towers and Wren
Towers continues to ask for more than he will get. Especially now that he has limited the teams to basically one. Not a smart bargaining tactic on his part. He will definitely have to change something move Peavy. But, why would Wren just slam the door shut and put all of his eggs in one basket on Burnett, knowing the competition for him will be great? I just don’t understand the logic behind saying we will no longer talk to them. Why not tell Towers we are still interested, just not at the price you are asking? That at least keeps the door open. I still say that getting both Peavy and Burnett is the way to go. I know how good Escobar can and hopefully will be, but the Braves formula for winning has never been built upon a shortstop, but top quality starting pitching. In the end, maybe the door is still open for Peavy and we just don’t know it, but it makes the most sense to me to keep the dialog going.
by MurphyHOF on Dec 11, 2008 6:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Smoltz goes ANYWHERE ELSE
Frank Wren should be taken out back and beaten. Then shot.
by jjcollins on Dec 10, 2008 9:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Dude paying 15 million a year for Burnett is not garbage. Paying CC 23 million a year might be a little garbage after seeing what happened to Barry Z. Burnett is an injury risk though but the pitching market is thin and the Braves have to do something. I am starting to believe anyway that Wren and the Braves are looking more at 2010 then 2009.
by That a boy on Dec 10, 2008 9:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
zito’s peripherals were declining in the 3 years before h signed the contract, not so for sabathia
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 10, 2008 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True but what I am saying is big contracts are more often a risk then a reward and in the end its not worth it. Paying a pitcher a front line pitcher 15 million per is good but any higher then that is just retarded.
by That a boy on Dec 10, 2008 10:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i would gladly pay johan santana 25 million a year without flinching.
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 10, 2008 10:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
burnett aint coming.. yankees offered him 5/91. YIKES
the mets got JJ putz TO SET UP FOR KROD. and apparently just for the fun of it, they got jeremy reed too. that pisses me off.
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 10, 2008 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Buh-huh?!?
What the hell are the Yankees thinking? Have they no fiscal responsibility? I guess it must be easy when your team plays by different rules than everyone else and pull in the kind of dough they do.
I’m not going to rail on the Yankees for ‘buying their team’, but its very frustrating when a team can swoop in and offer 15% over what the rest of the market is bearing. Un.fucking.believeable.
by soup du jour on Dec 10, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Have they no fiscal responsiblity"
Where have you been the last 15 years?
by Hizilla on Dec 11, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is great news
Burnett at 5/$80M was garbage but 5/$91M is just priceless. Those fuckers can have him all day long at that price.
Time to start looking at YA BOY Jon Garland. Or maybe even a little Randy Wolf…? Ooh yeah, sign me up!
by get swoll yunel on Dec 11, 2008 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh, and edwin jackson is about to be traded to detroit, so certain people can shut the fuck up about him
this blows. maybe we can just go with 3 starters and use nothing but bullpen guys in the last 2 spots. HELLO JEFF BENNETT!
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 10, 2008 11:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Its two things I hate about baseball SCOTT BORAS and the Yankees. In all honesty this isn’t fair. I am not just saying this because we might loose out on Burnett but because I am a fan of baseball period and this isn’t baseball its a monopoly. I hope Burnett signs with the Braves just for the sake a baseball man.
by That a boy on Dec 11, 2008 12:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Boras and the Yankees are playing by the rules
Unfortunately, the rules are seriously fucked up. If there was true revenue sharing, the Yankees wouldn’t be able to do what they do. And Boras is just doing his job – getting his clients more money. MLB has $6 billion in revenue, and it has to go to someone. As the kids say, don’t hate the player, hate the game (I’m cool now, right?). Or alternatively, you can protest the massive amounts of money the sport brings in by not going to or watching the games. The decreases the revenue and the player salaries.
by buzzdeadwax on Dec 11, 2008 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no, baseball needs a salary floor.
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 11, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This has gotten to the point where I’m thinking we should just save our money and look forward to 2010. I’m not that certain that even with Burnett we would compete next year anyway. There is no doubt in my mind that he is not worth 5/91. He is barely worth 5/80. He has an injury risk and a tendency to have about 7 or 8 off games a year. A true ace only has about 2 or 3. By 2010 Hanson should be going good with Roborough and Locke getting close. Not to mention Heyward and Shafer will be ready. I say if we want to compete for the long term we should save our money and start getting this team young and good.
by jack dein on Dec 11, 2008 12:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm starting to agree...
Wow, what a terrible news day
The Yanks are seemingly buying yet another title. Not only that, they are overpaying. I hope they choke.
Smoltzy is showing his loyalty to the fans and the club by paying them back for all the paychecks he recieved while sitting on his butt. (Sorry, I’m speaking out of hurt. It seems money rules all nowadays. Even Smoltz)
We will lose Burnett. I agree we need a front of the rotation starter, but not at that price. If we can’t land the people we need at a decent price, then we should get the best cheap talent available and go young with Hanson. All the while hoping others in the organization step up. Throwing an obscene contract at someone out of desperation isn’t the answer for a team without very deep pockets. Yes, it will likely mean another year without a title, however, like the poster above eluded to, better that then giving away our future for one year of contention. We have a group of very talented starters and outfielders on their way. Go cheap with inexpensive veterans and hope to successfully bridge the time between now and then. Hope for the best and build a team aound our youth while simply biding our time.
That, or throw too much money at Sheets and hope he start 25 games for us.
by BBJ on Dec 11, 2008 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No way
If these numbers are true for Burnett, then there is no way we should attempt to stay in the game. We simply cannot absorb that kind of money and still field a competitive team in the future without turing into the Marlins (salary dump every 4-5 years). There is also no way I would give Lowe the four year deal he is seeking regardless of the money. I haven’t seen too many longer contracts given to pitchers that will be 40 years old at the end work out so well. Now Sheets might actually be worth a 2 year deal. Who knows? I refer back to a point I made earlier, it was a mistake to shut the door completely on the Peavy talks.
by MurphyHOF on Dec 11, 2008 7:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this
I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.
by bigjoe on Dec 11, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Problem with this is that you’re counting on 5 prospects to pan out. This will not happen.
by soup du jour on Dec 11, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What? You mean every single prospect doesn’t turn into a superstar? That in fact the vast majority of them flame out before they even make it to the big leagues? I’m shocked.
by cbwilk on Dec 12, 2008 3:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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