If We Trade Yunel...
I know a great number of members here hate the idea of trading our young shortstop, but I'd like to make an argument against that sentiment. Yunel Escobar has been a solid performer for us and he's shown flashes of potential for more, but it's not as though he's indispensible for our present or future.
Like Jeff Francouer before him, Yunel Escobar burst onto the scene in Atlanta with amazing success and flair to boot. Unfortunately, he has some other similarities with our former Golden Boy. Yunel suffered a sophomore slump, but that was to be expected because of his minor league track record. It may be difficult to believe, but what we saw last season is much more indicative of his actual expected performance in the majors than his impressive rookie campaign. Aside from some durability concerns, he also has some temperment issues. His intangibles overall are solid, but he's not flawless in any respect.
Something a bit more burried is the fact that we have plenty of players that could serve the same purpose as Escobar in our line-up: namely, two-hole hitters. Most people think of Kelly Johnson as his redundancy (personally, I have shifted into the camp that sees him as a #6 hitter), but Casey Kotchman has the same profile as a hitter as well. What's really troubling about trading Yunel is the fact that we don't have anyone in house that could replace him both in the order and on the field.
Prospect Brent Lillibridge is clearly not ready, so we'd have to fill his vacancy via trade or the free agent market. I happen to believe that the latter gives us a pair of excellent possibilities. The first and least likely is former Brave Rafael Furcal. He's a serious injury risk, but he's also likely a superior player to Yunel Escobar. His inability to stay healthy duing his contract year makes he a potential bargain as a free agent, despite very impressive stats as a Dodger over the last three seasons. I think of his acquisition as a longshot, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. Someone more likely, however, is yet another former Brave: Edgar Renteria.
Before you point to his disasterous stint with Detroit, I'd like to point out a few this about Reneteria that I've notice by looking at his career. Since his breakout season in 2002, he's struggled in contract years and in his first year with a new team. He also seems to be alergic to the American League. All three of those factors were in play with the Tigers last season and none of them would be an issue if he were to return to Atlanta (where he had the best time of his career other than the 2002-2003 stretch with the Cardinals in St. Louis). He'd likely come cheaply and would welcome a second stint with the Braves.
Both of the replacements I've mentioned would be shortterm fixes, but we have longterm potential in the pipeline already. With some more time at AAA, Lillibridge could regain his form. A couple of years into the future, we could be looking at Brandon Hicks as our starting SS in Atlanta. Oh, and there's always free agency and the trade market to address the void if it persists.
The point of this is to say that trading Yunel would not be the end of the world. I'm not trying to convince people that it is a good idea (I'm not convinced of that myself) but I hope this keeps people from rejecting it out of hand. If Jake Peavy comes with a price tag of Escobar, Jo-Jo Reyes, Gorkys Hernandez and Jeff Locke (and we don't have to extend his no-trade protection or pick up his option year before the time comes) then we should consider it. Aces don't come cheap and they don't come often. We have the payroll and roster flexibility to consider a trade like that and we should. That's really all I'm trying to say.
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33 comments
Comments
I agree completely
Although I’ve been looked at funny for saying Hicks could be in our future, I do think he’s got some serious potential. I know the Ks are there, but his glove is supposed to be very good already. If he reigns in the strikeouts, he could eventually be a vey good ML SS. But that’s the future.
For now, I like the idea of Renteria as a stopgap, quick fix. Obviously long term we need somebody to replace Escobar with above average defense at SS. If we get Peavey and another solid pitcher of #2 caliber quality, put Schafer in center, then it looks to me like the Braves will be returning to the winning formula – defense and pitching. A lot depends on how solid the rotation is, of course, but this seems to be a step in the right direction, and I definitely think that’s possible without Escobar. I wouldn’t lose any sleep over the trade you outlined; in fact, I’d be ecstatic.
In this scenario, who knows if we could seriously contend in 2009 – I think maybe. But beyond that certainly looks promising with Heyward and Freeman on the horizon. And if Hicks can catch his bat up with his glove at short, then we could really be in business.
Of course 2nd base could be a problem if we trade KJ for a LF, but we can work on that issue later…..Travis Jones long term or somebody else??
by secondbass on Nov 9, 2008 6:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
i still maintain Hicks is a ML 3B, mostly cause of this size… his body profile is very similar to Chipper’s both arouns 6’ 2", similar weight.
we arent really debatin about how good we think he could be, just where he will be playing in the IF.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Nov 9, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely
I’ve beat the drum saying Hicks will end up at 3rd for a long time…..but, you never really know, and if we need him at short, I think he’d be fine.
by secondbass on Nov 9, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually I think
it’s Escobar, Gorkys, Morton and a lesser prospect. If that “lesser prospect” is Locke, than I think it is too much, but in the end I would probably pull the trigger.
My worry is now, we have created an additional hole wih the loss of Yunel at Shortstop. Do we fill that with another trade?
The farm system can only take so many trades. The deoth we have will dissapear if we continue to trade to fill holes. They need to take some risks on the free agent market.
by NEBravesFan33 on Nov 9, 2008 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Remember guys that Prince Fielder sat on Yunel early in the season and he was never 100% after that. His shoulder bothered him all year. Escobar didn’t have a bad season by any means, but I expect even more from a fully healthy Escobar. I think the problem is, management doesn’t like his cocky attitude. I can’t see why any team would want to trade a guy like Escobar when we have him locked up for 5 more years cheap.
by BravesFan on Nov 9, 2008 10:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good Stuff..
…but I’m of the thinking, and I used this in another thread. Credit goes to the USS Mariner.
the idea that a team has to have an established ace to contend is a load of crap
Not to mention, as much as I enjoyed Furcal and Renteria when they were here..they’re not worth the runs they would end up giving up with horrible range and declining skills at the plate. Why give up a good young and controllable shortstop, only to make yourself weaker at another position?
by RainDelay on Nov 9, 2008 12:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wow we agree on that point. In addition, Furcal would cost about $12 mil a year. So a Peavy and Furcal combo would cost us on average around $27.5 mil. While Escobar costs us virtually nothing right now, we could find some decent pitching for that $27.5 mil. Hypotheticaly speaking of course if that’s what Wren has in mind if he trades Escobar.
by BravesFan on Nov 9, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The whole idea of trading Yunel+ for Peavy doesn't make sense
Because teams in contention don’t create giant, gaping holes in their major league team to fill another need. This isn’t one of those “ace away from the WS” situations so why are we young prospects and a major part of the team for an ace that will soon cost 75% of market value with an injury risk? Yeah you can sign free agents to fill needs, but trading several young pieces for older players while signing vets on the wrong side of 30 when you aren’t 1-2 pieces away from winning is what gets teams like the Yankees in trouble. It’s simply not the right time for the Braves to make a move like that and resources can be better spent on something else or banked even.
Jeff Francoeur sucks so he shouldn’t be compared to Yunel who’s actually good at baseball. I guess they both do have rocket arms.
At this point in their careers, Escobar is a better player than Furcal. What’s the best you can expect from a healthy Furcal? .290/.350/.440? Yunel pulled off .288/.366/.401 last season with a bum shoulder. Yunel is in his athletic prime while Furcal’s in decline. Yunel will definitely be better going forward and that’s just batting. In 2006, Furcal’s Plus/Minus was +7 and Yunel’s was +21. +21 is gold glove territory and the only player with a higher plus/minus than Yunel in 2008 was Rollins at +23. The only advantage Furcal has is the ability to steal bases, but he has around a 76% career success rate so his base stealing is far less useful than people think. And because shortstops are in such high demand right now, Furcal will be expensive because a ton of teams want him right now.
Renteria is no good anymore. The only times he’s been successful in his career is from high BABIP seasons. His range at shortstop was gone before the Braves even traded him.
You’re right than it wouldn’t be end of the world if Yunel was traded, but it still doesn’t make the trade a good idea. Aces are hard to find but so are elite defensive SS’s with a solid bat. Yunel’s probably the most underrated player on the team right now (with Kelly Johnson second).
Just because you have the money and the flexibility does not mean you need to make moves. I don’t like the idea of being tied down to several aging veteran contracts while trading young, cheap talent when we aren’t in a 1-2 pieces from the WS situation.
by VictorW on Nov 9, 2008 12:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Furcal
was putting up a monster year at the plate before he was injured. If he could stay healthy, I would want him in a heartbeat based on his bat alone. Problem is, he can’t stay healthy, and the Bravos have enough injury issues to worry about (see Chipper, Gonzo, Soriano, Smoltz…)
by TheSportsIdiot on Nov 9, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree Victor. I think you nailed it.
by BravesFan on Nov 9, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 10, 2008 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i agree with Victor the comparisons between Frenchy and Yunel are slim if they are there at all. Yunel has a pretty good approach at the plate, he doesnt K very often and he is able to take walks. Two things Frenchy cant do.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Nov 9, 2008 12:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
OCab
I think Orlando Cabrera would be the best SS FA pickup we could make if Esco is traded. His defense wouldn’t be that big of a dropoff and he is a good leadoff hitter.
by JFP on Nov 9, 2008 5:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Other Shortstop Option(s)
Ok, so I probably have zero credibility at this point with TalkingChop readers after my last post suggesting the possibility of trading for Miguel Tejada to replace Yunel at shortstop. Let me clarify now that I do not think that is a beneficial move that the Braves should be looking at anyways.
I’m simply concerned, as is Atlanta’s potential acquisition Jake Peavy, about how Wren intends to fill the gaping hole at shortstop which would exist if indeed we end up dealing away Escobar.
I don’t see the Braves trading for a replacement at short. J.J. Hardy would be enticing, but the Brewers will probably ask for too much in return. Tejada is obviously not a good fit. Greene and his shortcomings were discussed at length earlier. Jack Wilson, Bobby Crosby, and Julio Lugo are not desirable either. All of these players would most likely fall short of providing league average production at the SS position.
Unfortunately, we don’t have any prospects in our minor league system that can step in and play short this season. Lillibridge struggled mightily between Richmond and Atlanta. And while Diory Hernandez is having a nice AFL season, it doesn’t sound like he’s ready to contribute at the major league level yet. And Brandon Hicks is a couple years away, and apparently is destined to play third anyway.
So that forces Wren to find a free agent replacement. However, we seem to be fixated on bringing back a former Brave, whether that’s Furcal or Renteria. But there are other options out on the FA market. Guys like Izturis, Uribe, Vazquez, and Eckstein are more of a liability and aren’t worth the effort. But a player like Orlando Cabrera seems to be just short of an ideal fit for Atlanta.
Cabrera just turned 34, and I think he would be satisfied with a 3-4 year deal, maybe at an average of $8 to $9 million per. I’m sure someone will point out that his production might fall off by that last year, but over the next three seasons he should provide some speed at the top of the order, combined with a .280/.335/.400 which is in line with his career #s, and excellent defense at a premium position. I’m sure guys like RainDelay, 17483, and ejruiz can offer up some stats to point out the holes in my argument. But the biggest advantage to signing Cabrera is the fact that we don’t have to deal anything from our farm system or give up a 1st round pick as compensation.
By no means am I suggesting that Orlando Cabrera = Yunel Escobar. There are a lot of reasons to keep a potential star SS like Yunel. But the opportunity to get a pitcher of Peavy’s caliber doesn’t come along often, and when they do, usually a big market team like New York, Boston, or LA jumps in and grabs them. I guess the easiest way to put this is that I believe the difference between Peavy and a FA starter(Lowe, Burnett, Dempster, Sheets, et al) is much bigger than the difference between Escobar and a FA like Cabrera.
by ATLBraves4Life on Nov 9, 2008 5:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
We don't need to replace his bat immediately...
I think the point that was made in the cover posting was that the Braves don’t need to replace Yunel’s bat immediately. Because of the Braves composition they have offensive talent at C, 2B, (to a lesser degree) CF-places that you normally have to cover with offense elsewhere in the line up. They do not need to immediately acquire a #2 hitter. They can survive with workable #8 hitter as their SS. Someone like Infante could be servicable in that capacity…especially if you work to create some competition by going after another option/supe sub-ie someone like a Nick Punto. Guys like Punto or Infante could start and hit Ok..play good D….or come off the bench and play everywhere. Someone out of the Infante, Punto, Lillebridge mix should come up as a viable #8 hitter for us.
I also want to point out something that nobody is bringing up. Yunel is not THAT young. He is 26 years old. Not over the hill-but we are not talking about someone who came to the big leagues at the age of 22 and we can expect to see his growth curver accelerate a great deal in the coming years. I think that somewhere between last year and his rookie year is whar we can expect-which is a very nice shortstop. I also think that because of the type of hitter he is he has more value in SD then in ATL. I don’t think he will ever turn into a big time HR guy (maybe 15-18 HRs annually in a good year) but I think playing in big Petco field he could turn into a doubles machine and be extremely effective in a park where homers go to die.
All that being said- if we can trade Yunel as part of a package that doesn’t hurt and pulls from surplus..then great. You can never have too much pitching. However, if we have to gut the farm to get Peavy..then let him stay in SD. One pitcher isn’t going to help our cause that much.
by calbers on Nov 9, 2008 8:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Escobar is 26, meaning we control his age 26-30 seasons, basically the most productive seasons he’ll have in his career, for pennies on the dollar. His salaries for the next five seasons will be somewhere between $15-20 million total. His offense+defense is worth between 2-3 wins above average and that shouldn’t materially change during the period he’s under our control. Essentially, on the open market his production would cost around $10-15 million a year. Even if we only sign a stop-gap for two years until a prospect is ready, we’ll still be spending more money – $20-30 million compared to $15-20 million.
Or we could punt on the position and employ someone who is below average, but that’s not going to allow us to compete at all, we already have too many holes (LF, CF, RF) where we get below average production to allow us to punt on offense for five positions in the lineup.
I also disagree that it’s okay to trade Escobar as part of a rebuilding plan that will allow us to integrate a shortstop prospect into the team to contend in 2010 or 2011. Not only do we not have much depth at shortstop (it’s really Lillibridge and Hicks), but none of them project as a can’t miss stud. Hicks could very easily go the way Lillibridge went after a good High-A season and end up making too little contact to be an effective ML hitter.
by 17843 on Nov 9, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Peavy Savings
Peavy, at market rate would cost the Braves an extra 10-20 Mil for the rest of the contract.
Adding this to the Escobar’s salary over the same time period equals around to a SS total salary of 35M over 5 years.
7Mil a year can get you an above avg SS.
by WhyBraves on Nov 9, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I'm in the minority on this one
Because I think trading Yunel right now would be a HUGE mistake. Obviously he is sight to see defensively and offensively, he’s probably our most consistent hitter after Chip and Mac. You also have to look at it like this, do you really want to trade want to trade one of the team’s best players that is also cheap too? Not only that, but I really don’t think people appreciate how gifted this young player is. Nor do they realize how much pitchers (particularly g.b. pitchers) like playing in front of him.
I like Jake Peavy and he would definitely make our current rotation better. However, you also have to look at the big picture when making a trade of this magnitude. Adding Peavy is just one piece to the big puzzle in getting the Braves back to just a competitive team. Will Wren make the necessary move afterwards to get the Braves that second big name starter and an outfielder with some legit power? See, in my mind if those two following things do not happen this season, then the Peavy trade is already a loss.
by ChipperTeixeira89 on Nov 9, 2008 9:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yunel is a good fielding shortstop. Francoeur is a mediocre fielding corner outfielder
Right there, you’ve got a 2.5 win difference in value, ignoring offensive contributions.
Even with league-average offense, Yunel’s 3.5 to 4 wins above replacement, which is a borderline All-Star. All that for next to free. Nobody should ever be untouchable in trade, but there’s no way another team will offer what he’s worth.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 9, 2008 10:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agree, worth it for Peavy.
Preferences:
1) furcal on a reasonable contract (120 games) Diory Hernandez/Infante (20 games each)
*spells relief for a chronic back,
- allows Hernandez to develop.
- Infante a good bat off the bench (the guy is an automatic Sac Fly)
2) Substitute Renteria for Furcal. On a cheaper one year contract with a team option next year.
*Why won’t Wren trade both Mid Inf? We loose nothing defensively or offensively with Prado. I am actually of the opinion that Prado has a chance to improve greatly at the plate.
by WhyBraves on Nov 9, 2008 11:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It was bad enough you wanted Chuck James to prove himself in spring training. Now you say we lose nothing using Prado instead of KJ. If you’re going to post strong opinions like these at least educate yourself a little first.
by scstrato on Nov 10, 2008 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
1) I don’t think Chuck is ever going to be an avg major league pitcher. Others think higher of him than me, mostly arguing that he was injured the last 2 years. I responded with, " ok, maybe that’s the case, but he needed to be amazing in spring to even be considered again."
2) I guess you took exception to my tone = strong opinion. Sorry, just the way I write. (an unfortunate consequence of law school I admit)
by WhyBraves on Nov 10, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
I was probably a little overboard with my tone as well. For the record, my problem was more the lack of knowledge in your post than the tone. Now I can see why you might not know the full story (law school). To clarify:
- Chuck James is injured and it was a career threatening injury (he tore both his labrum and rotator cuff). These injuries are today what “Tommy John” surgery was when it was first performed on Tommy John. Dr. Andrews, who performed his operation, wondered to the media how he was even able to lift his arm, much less pitch for the last year and a half. Your comment led me to believe you didn’t know this, and I assumed you were just another in a long line of new visitors who come on posting ridiculous opinions. That was wrong of me, sorry.
- The Prado=KJ remark has been debated here a couple of times. I can see where some might think this is the case, but when you dig into their performances it’s clear (at least to me) that Prado won’t be able to sustain his numbers over a full season. His defense isn’t close either in my opinion, which is really bad considering KJ is simply league average.
Thanks for clarifying and sorry I bit before I barked.
by scstrato on Nov 10, 2008 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait…KJ is back to being league average? I hated the guy simply by watching him, but after I checked BP I saw they had rated him very highly. In fact he was rated incredibly close to Brandon Phillips according to them.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 10, 2008 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kelly sore on the eyes
By simply watching him, Kelly looked horrible with the glove to me as well. So many crucial errors and DPs not made.
Then I checked the stats between Kelly and Prado. While playing 2B Kelly had more DPs per Inning than Prado, which was very surprising to me. Would appreciate some stats of league avg as Kelly turned 7.5 DPs per 100 innings logged as a 2B.
by WhyBraves on Nov 10, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is the very reason I don’t put a ton of belief in fielding metrics. I love BP, religiously, and I love Bill James/Fielding Bible as well, but I’ll never give my 100% to either system. If I remember correctly his +/- for the year was a -3 which is pretty close to league average. Regardless, I believe he is a much better fielder than Prado – even though he dropped that damned fly ball behind first!
by scstrato on Nov 10, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s been talked about before, you WILL loose offensively and defensively with Prado. Go back and look through some old threads.
Prado = role player. nothing more. nothing less.
by RainDelay on Nov 10, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We’re going to have to disagree on our opinion of Prado and his potential. We can all agree that kelly is great when he’s going well. But his slumps will limit him to an .800 OPS over a season, with a below avg glove. Of course he is young, smart hitter, and has an elite batting eye. The fact that he didn’t improve much last year has hurt his development/potential (granted no one on the team except McCann showed much improvement in 2008). But the point is what’s a bigger dropoff in 2009/10?
Kelly vs Prado OR LF via trade vs Diaz/Infante/Jones/etc.
Braves’ management seems willing to trade Kelly for a LF.
by WhyBraves on Nov 10, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you um, gave no indications of how prado was somehow better (which by the way, he’s really not). thanks for playing.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Nov 10, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that’s because I didn’t write prado will necessarily be better. your welcome.
by WhyBraves on Nov 11, 2008 7:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
…so why downgrade?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Nov 11, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's a pretty massive dropoff
from Escobar to Renteria. Escobar is one of the top fielders at his position, Renteria one of the worst. Escobar, despite injuries, was an above average hitter at SS. Renteria was barely above replacement level as hitter this year. That “stopgap” would probably cost us about 3-4 wins on the year.
As to whether or not he’s allergic to the AL, I think that saying he caught cooties from a woman in Detroit is a more logical argument. Simply put, they’re playing the same game over there, and though it’s a tougher league, it’s not so tough as to render a good player a marginal one.
Personally, I’m not exactly sold on Lillibridge at this point. His OPS has consistently dropped off the higher up he moves in the minors, and this year was horrific. He’s looking more and more like a utility player in my opinion.
Hicks, if he straightens out the K’s, could be a future solution, but I doubt anyone really thinks he’ll be ready before 2011. He almost reminds me of Brandon Wood, but with less power. Wood is yet to iron out his swing, and some of the scouting reports I’ve seen indicate that it’s unlikely to happen without a complete remake of his swing. Like I said, Hicks could pan out, but those K’s are a gigantic red flag.
Furcal, while a much better option when healthy than Renteria, is going to command at least 10 million a year and as a guy who’s value is largely dependent on speed, is likely to be worse than Yunel over the next three years. And, as I said, that’s if his back doesn’t keep acting up.
by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 10, 2008 9:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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