A proposal to acquire Peavy
by grover on Nov 8, 2008 10:36 PM EST
Email
PrintI’m an A’s fan and I’m bored.
The Jake Peavy trade saga is the most interesting story around right now and I couldn’t help but notice the obstacles involved. Please bear with me as I give a brief synopsis of how I understand the situation.
The Braves want Peavy but they don’t want to give up Heyward, Schafer, Hanson or Teheran. OK, a deal might be possible as long as Yunel Escobar is involved. Supposedly Escobar has been offered with one of Jo Jo Reyes/Charlie Morton plus a third prospect. I’ve heard that the Braves would be willing to discuss Gorkys Hernandez. But wait a second, Peavy and his no-trade clause is worried about going to a Braves team that no longer has Escobar. So even if the Braves could come up with a package that appeases the Padres and doesn’t cost them their top prospects it could still fall apart if Jake Peavy isn’t happy.
From San Diego’s perspective, there’s no way a deal happens unless Escobar is involved. Ideally one of Hanson or Schafer would come over with Escobar but the Braves are holding those guys tight. Hernandez is a legit CF prospect but the problem with Reyes or Morton is… well, they’re Reyes and Morton. Reyes has been horrid thus far in his big league career. He’s still young enough to improve (and a move to Petco wouldn’t hurt his numbers) but damn he’s posted some ugly numbers for Atlanta. Morton kinda came out of nowhere this year and it’s hard to feel comfortable about him being the arm you get in return for trading Jake Peavy.
If I’m San Diego, an Escobar/Reyes/Hernandez package does not get a deal done.
So the obvious move would be for the Braves to add more to their offer, but let’s be honest, any team that holds back their top 4-5 prospects is going to have a hard time finding the pieces to land Jake Peavy. Here’s where my interest kicks in. I’ve got a proposal that I believe is 90-95% of the way of getting a deal done but I’d like to get the input from Braves and Padres fans to make it all fair. So I’m sending this post to both Talking Chop and Gaslamp Ball to get some ideas.
Look, I understand that some folks on both sides are dead set against this deal happening. To them I say thanks for taking the time to read this and please don’t flame the thread. To the rest, let me hear some ideas to make this all work out.
Padres get: Daric Barton, Vincent Mazzaro, Gio Gonzalez (Oak)
Yunel Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez (Atl)
Braves get: Jake Peavy (SD)
Bobby Crosby (Oak)
A’s get: Adrian Gonzalez (SD)
Tyler Flowers (Atl)
(Gives a minute for the yelling to subside.)
OK, let me explain some of the details.
I realize that San Diego doesn’t want to move Adrian Gonzalez, but there needs to be some incentive for Oakland to get involved. I thought about dropping Chase Headley in place of Adrian but from what I’ve read the Padres FO hold Headley as dear to their hearts as much as the Braves love Hanson.
Losing Escobar might irk Peavy, but I seriously doubt he’s up to speed on the latest defensive metrics. He almost certainly knows who Bobby Crosby is and while I’ll be the first to admit that Crosby pretty much sucks with the bat he does project to be an average defensive SS in 2009. Moving out of the AL and away from the Coliseum can only help Crosby’s bat (and it needs all the help it can get) but more importantly his arrival should keep Peavy from nixing the trade. Furthermore, an Escobar/Hernandez/Flowers package is probably a bit less than what they were originally willing to pay. (That’s debatable and I’ll leave that debate to Braves’ fans.)
If this is weak tea for anyone, it’s the Padres. Daric Barton offers up an immediate replacement to Adrian and while his 2008 season sucked his minor league numbers are good enough to still interest Kevin Towers and his ex-A’s associates. If the Padres don’t need a 2009 ready replacement for Gonzalez and they’d prefer someone other than Barton then that player could still come from the Oakland organization. Mazzaro and Gonzalez offer up a lot more upside than Reyes/Morton and both could be ready to pitch in San Diego by the middle of 2009, Gio Gonzalez maybe sooner. The Padres still get Escobar and Gorkys becomes their CF of the future.
Now, I’ve read that the Padres want a MLB ready SP, middle infield help and a bullpen arm for Peavy. This package gives them that and more, although I’m not sure the “more” enough to deal Adrian Gonzalez as well. (Hey, that’s why I said this is a 90-95% solution!) Let me know what you think.
Heh.
Talk about your famous last words.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
34 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Alright
I’ve got 4 votes saying this favors the A’s too much but no explanation as to why. What’s the problem?
The monster at the end of this blog.
As a Braves fan, I wouldn’t mind this proposal. But San Diego isn’t going to trade AG. He’s good and cheap. I don’t think they would be getting enough.
I also don’t think Crosby is what the Braves are looking for in a SS…though admittedly, I don’t know much about him. So I’m not sure why the A’s would really be involved at all.
I will say though, that I’m surprised more people haven’t mentioned Tyler Flowers’ name. He’s really raking in the AFL right now, is one of our top prospects, and is blocked.
Also...
I don’t think that the Braves would give up Gorkys and Flowers along with Yunel.
And I know a lot of people think Morton “sucks” but he really doesn’t. I was actually quite impressed with him this season. He has 4 pitches and can throw in the mid nineties. When he has them working he is unhittable. He’s never thrown so many innings before…not even close really. He was hurt at the end of the season. I really like his potential and don’t want to trade him.
Combining your two comments...
The problem with Flowers is not everyone is convinced he can stick at Catcher. His bat becomes less impressive if he has to move to 1B.
I’m not sure if you’re more worried about losing Flowers or Morton. I’m not going to argue with you over Morton, but I hope you’ll agree that Jo Jo Reyes is a questionable addition to the package.
Do you think Flowers > Morton > Jo Jo?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Morton > Flowers
The reason I say this is because Morton has proven himself at a higher level and isn’t blocked like Flowers is. I won’t argue that Flowers may eventually have to switch positions, but it won’t be anytime soon. This was his first full season behind the plate…and supposedly pitchers like throwing to him. We’ll see…
My problem with your trade scenario is that it seems unnecessary for the A’s to get involved. The Padres could get a boatload for AG in a separate trade…much more than you proposed. And the Braves could get Peavy without the A’s getting involved. Plus, I don’t think the Braves would want an All-Glove No-Stick Shortstop when they already have one named Lillibridge…who still has plenty of time to reach his ceiling.
It just doesn’t really make sense for the A’s to be involved like this.
OK, so how do the Braves land Peavy without involving the A's?
What do you think that package looks like?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Escobar
Escobar is a mighty fine player. I’m not just saying that because I’m a homer. I’m reluctant to even give him up for Peavy straight up.
How many of these deals “on the table” are really valid? I don’t know what trade would get it done for both the A’s and the Braves…
I’m not saying I wouldn’t give up Morton and Flowers and Hernandez in a deal, but I think the Braves have plenty of other pieces to use to get the deal done…And if the Braves wanted him that badly, they could have given up Hanson and had this thing wrapped up weeks ago.
You’re right about Jo-Jo. But I think a change of scenery would do him some good. He has all the tools…kinda like Kyle Davies.
Escobar vs. Peavy straight up
I understand where this is coming from… but Escobar can’t pitch. And if you’re looking for a SS, Peavy isn’t your guy.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Oh....
And I said I would do this deal as a Braves fan above. I just think that San Diego would be better suited to trade AG separately.
flowers, escobar & hernandez is too much to give up for peavy, and the non-hitting bobby crosby. 2 of those 3 and a lesser known dude are enough to get peavy.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
I really don't think so
Put another way, if Kevin Towers called up and said Peavy for those three and a picture of Frank Wren, the human sundae, Mr. wren would stripping and screaming at his assistant for whip cream and chocolate sauce.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I think the Braves can make this deal with San Diego without having Oakland involved and offering less while not taking on Crosby who is just awful and doesn’t deserve to be a starter anywhere in the majors.
OK, how?
I see giving up Flowers vs. Reyes/Morton as the lesser of the two deals. Flowers is an A-ball bat who may (or may not) be able to stick at Catcher.
Even if you think Flowers>Morton/Reyes, we can’t be talking that great of a difference.
Let me put this another way. Trading Peavy for Escobar/Reyes or Morton/Hernandez would be a bad deal for San Diego. Trading Peavy for Escobar/Flowers/Hernandez would be a bad deal for San Diego.
Trading Peavy for a package less than either of those deals would be stupid. Let’s give Kevin Towers some credit here, he ain’t stupid.
And yes, Bobby Crosby sucks. But he’s a name to appease Peavy.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I guess I just like Flowers a whole lot. Hernandez and Flowers are 2 highly regarded prospects. Escobar (2nd best fielder and we know he’s a good hitter) who is locked up for the next 5 years. I feel like Towers has his back against the wall and is obviuosly limited who he trades Peavy to. If we can replace Flowers with a Reyes, I think we’re better off. That’s the deal being talked about on the table anyway. Escobar, Gorkys and Reyes.
Yes, that is the deal on the table
And Towers wants more, for good reason.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I’m hoping Wren doesn’t give in because he doesn’t have to. I still think if we go after a starter, it should be one from the FA market, but that’s just me.
Atlanta's interest in Peavy is real
I never said it made sense.
The monster at the end of this blog.
my bad, I was thinking Barton was someone else. The deal actually seems pretty fair. As a Braves fan I would do this deal, Crosbys better than who we’d replace Escobar with. Obviously you like it as an A’s fan. San Diego’s getting Escobar, a future ace, and some other prospects, so yeah its a pretty good deal ignore the comment above.
I obviously like the deal but...
I’ve got this nagging doubt that SD is getting the short end o’ the stick.
The monster at the end of this blog.
OK, 9 votes saying this deal favors Oakland and no explanation why
C’mon folks, I’ve already said this deal may need tweaking but I could use some guidance as to what the problem is.
The monster at the end of this blog.
wooo i didnt see Braves give up T-Flow. A’s getting the better deal now i dont know how i missed all this. So A’s are giving up Gio Gonzalez, Barton, Mazzaro and Crosby and getting Flowers and Gonzalez. Yeah I’d say Oakland is defnetely getting the better deal. I still think SD might do this because theyre getting the big time pitcher that they wanted (not Hanson but Gio’s good), a young top notch Shortstop, center field prospect and 2 other lesser guys. SD is getting the shortest end of the stick but I think they would do this deal. If Oakland sent another player Atlantas way it would even it up.
Are you sure about the deal this time? ;-)
How about a bullpen arm?
Andrew Brown would be too funny, but Santiago Casilla is too unreliable. How about Sam Demel?
The monster at the end of this blog.
A's/Braves fan's take...
I dont see how the A’s would be willing to move Gio and Mazzaro in the same deal. Sure, Barton has alienated some FO ppl with his play but Gonzalez was the key to the Swisher deal, yes?
I think if Mazzaro was replaced with someone like Josh Outman then we’d have a deal. SD can plug Gonzalez into their rotation right away, Outman goes to AAA until they decide if he’s a SP or RP and Barton starts at 1b.
Atlanta gets a crappy SS looking to redeem himself and their main man.
Oakland gets Suzuki’s replacement when he becomes expensive and some much needed power (finally) while keeping one of their underrated pitching prospects.
Now, granted as a Braves fan i don’t want them acquiring Peavy b/c I think seriously competing before 2011 is just a pipedream. I sort of envision Hernandez, Schafer, Heyward as a similar outfield as Nixon, Gant, Justice. But if it has to be done this is the way it out to be done. Good call, grover.
My Problems.
Why would we want to take Bobby Crosby (.237/.296/.349 in 556 AB last season, sadly his best and healthiest year in the last three) at $5.25M when we could probably get the same production or better from Brent Lillibridge for the league minimum or bring Renteria back to Atlanta for as much money or less?
Why would the Padres want to trade the best hitter in their already weak line-up when he’s still young (he’ll be 27 all next season) and cheap ($3M for 2009 and $4.75M for 2010)? They want to cut back on payroll pretty dramatically, but $3M won’t make that much difference and they could get plenty for him during or after this season, or even at the final Trade Deadline of his current contract.
Why wouldn’t you simply make these two deals seperately if you’re the Padres? Just get Yunel, Gorkys, Flowers or another equivalent prospect and perhaps a fourth piece from the Braves for Peavy first. Then send Gonzalez to Oakland for two or three elite prospects if wanted. Personally, I think that dream scenario for you would cost the A’s four pieces like the five we sent to Rangers for Tex or equal value. Remember, you’re getting a stud 1B entering his prime and locked up cheaply for two full seasons.
To sum up: the Braves wouldn’t want Crosby, the deals could be made seperately (from the Padres perspective) and you’re undervaluing Gonzalez. Is that the constructive criticism you’ve been looking for?
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
Appreciate the reply
On the whole Crosby/salary thing… I’ll kick in $4 million to cover his salary.
The only problem with the Escobar/Hernandez/Flowers+ plan is that 4th guy isn’t going to be the SP Towers wants in return. I don’t think the Braves will go the above three plus Morton or Reyes to get a deal done. (I could be wrong about that, add Morton to HEF and there’s a good chance Towers bites.)
Obviously I think well of Mazzaro and Gio, so much so that I consider Barton/Gio/Mazzaro/Escobar/Gorkys to be a LOT better offer than HEF or MEH. I really don’t think I’m undervaluing Adrian Gonzalez and am more than willing to add to Oakland’s contribution if necessary. So assuming the Braves don’t want to go M+HEF, what do I need to change/add/whatever to make this more fair?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Different As Their Situations May Be...
I believe the outcome of the Peavy derby will be much like that of last year’s Santana dash: everyone will wonder how the Padres gave him up for so little. San Diego HAS to trade him because they’re under enormous pressure to aggresively cut payroll. Moreover, Jake will demand somethings from teams that are not on his prefered list (extension of his no-trade clause and/or picking up his option year) driving down the potential return from them. This will end up a race between only a handful of team, amongst which the Braves are by far the best suited for a forced deal. I think you end up with Yunel, Reyes, Gorkys and Locke going to the Padres for Peavy if this does happen and I think that’s pretty fair.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
See, you had a different package at minorleagueball
Like I said there, Locke is a definite maybe. Reyes is uber-sketchy, swap him with Morton and Escobar/Morton/Gorkys/Locke has a chance if the Padres really like Locke. If they aren’t coo-coo for coco puffs over Locke I think you’re still light.
Swap Flowers for Locke and a deal is a lock. (Couldn’t resist.) I just haven’t heard the Braves say they’re willing to go that far.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Thoughtful post, but it seems like you’re just trying to unload Crosby. We might as well just take Khalil Greene.
SD is getting action on Greene from a couple different teams
You’d have to ante up to get him, whatever that cost might be.
I’m not (just) trying to unload Crosby, I’m also trying to appease a tempermental SP.
The monster at the end of this blog.
You’d have to ante up to get him
Greene?!? Pass. When did SD go from trying to unload his salary to getting action for him?
Boston and Baltimore for sure, maybe a 3rd team in the mix as well
Yeah, my jaw dropped too.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
