Why Trade Kelly Johnson?
by gondeee on Nov 6, 2008 11:19 AM EST
in Braves Trade News
Email
PrintKelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar are very similar hitters. Take a look at their 2008 stats:
Both guys shared time between hitting leadoff and hitting second in the batting order, but neither of these guys are really leadoff hitters -- they are both ideal hitters for the second spot. This is the key argument for why the Braves should trade one of these guys, and it seems to be the Braves preference to trade Johnson.
Escobar is under team control for longer, is arguably a better hitter, and is a defensive whiz at shortstop. Kelly is arbitration eligible, can be a streaky hitter, and is likely at the peak of his value. Yes, it should also be mentioned that Martin Prado seems ready to step in and play second base every day in the majors, while at the same time there is not an obvious or solid choice to replace Escobar at shortstop. But Prado will not be put in the same situation in the lineup that Johnson was.
The odds are that whoever starts in center field next year will hit leadoff -- be it Jordan Schafer (hopefully), Gregor Blanco, Josh Anderson, or some combination of the three. Each of these guys have speed and are good on-base guys. That leaves either Escobar or Johnson to hit second (presumably Escobar if we trade Johnson), followed by Chipper, new power hitting left-fielder, then some combination of McCann, Kotchman, and Francoeur, followed by a guy like Prado in the eighth spot in the lineup.
This is not meant to try and predict our lineup (rosterbation, I believe it was called) only to show that our lineup does not need two number-two hitters, it needs another legitamite power threat, and Johnson might be the best chip to build a trade around to acquire that power bat. I'm a fan of Kelly Johnson like many Braves fans, but I realize that our lineup needs more pop than Johnson can provide, and I prefer Escobar batting second. I sense that the Braves feel the same way, and I think there's a very small chance you'll see Kelly Johnson in a Braves uniform next season.
41 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Totally Agree
I’ve always been a big KJ fan and I love the positives he brings to the table. But I have never seen a hitter as streaky as he is and it’s been to the detriment of the team. One week he looks like Chipper Jones and then the next week he looks like Francoeur. It handcuffs the entire offense for weeks at a time when we have an out machine at the top of the order (KJ) and an out machine at the bottom of the order (Frenchy). I think that’s why we see the Braves at the top of a lot of statistical categories but not at the top of the win column. We’ve got to get some consistency.
I don’t care how streaky Kelly Johnson is, Prado is nothing more than a role player, and anyone arguing otherwise is deluding themselves. I’d rather have a guy that goes on hot and cold streaks than a guy who’s consistently hitting slap singles for a .270 average while at the same time providing worse defense.
I have no idea why people are so anxious to get rid of a player who provides above average offense and average defense at a position that’s not easy to fill. If Prado’s so great, why aren’t we looking to trade him instead of Kelly Johnson?
Well, the obvious answer to why not trade Prado is his value isn’t nearly as high. And it’s hard to argue about a streaky hitter like Kelly Johnson because it’s tough to measure how much he streakiness affects the team. If we can get rid of Francoeur and drop Kelly in the lineup, I’d be all for that because I don’t think his streakiness would hurt near as much. But if Francoeur stays and Kelly bats leadoff or 2nd, I think it really hurts the team.
I agree as well
Kelly is not that good defensively. He is a great hitter, but if he can get us a power hitting outfielder, I can’t say it’s a bad call. Prado is a good player, and I get the feeling he will get better if he plays one position consistently. He did after all play SS, 2B, 3B, LF, and 1B.
He was a -3 defensively .
….which means he only got to three less balls than the average 2B. So to say he’s not that good defensively is really inaccurate.
I think...
it’s harder for me to be logical when I like a player, and I like him. The arguments for trading him are good arguments, but I guess I’m like a mother hen who wants to keep her little brood all together…. but I guess there are no mother hens in baseball.
Allow me to rosterbate
I see no problem with hitting Yunel 2nd and KJ 6th. KJ is a 60+ extra base hit guy, which is perfect for this spot, and his poor OBP was probably an aberration. Is he a little streaky for my taste? Yes. But he will likely (hopefully) smoothe that out as he matures. And it’s not like he or Yunel is blocking a good prospect – a middle infield of Lillibridge and Prado is not a Major League middle infield, and could completely wipe out whatever gains are made by the players they’re traded for.
Escobar was
The number two rated shortstop in the major’s last year defensively, according to the fielding bible. The number of runs he saves with his glove plus the number he creates with his bat make him absolutely amazing. So, if we are trading one, please let it not be him. As to whether we should trade KJ, I like him and think that he is valuable, but if we can get something really good for him, well. Let’s do it.
I think people need to realize that the Braves are not a quick fix away from becoming WS champs. It’s going to take a couple years to get there, and trading away our 3rd best hitter is just going to make it take even longer.
then why are we talking about trading away a + player who’s under team control for a number of years. The idea is to trade away veterans and expensive players if you’re not going to be good for a couple years, not trade away talented young players.
This relates to both escobar and KJ. There’s no reason for us to be trading away the building blocks to our team. It’s stupid.
by lunatic96 on Nov 7, 2008 3:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
All the talk of trading KJ and/or Escobar is making me ill
Does Wren not understand that he has two effective, inexpensive, young middle infielders? Furthermore, does he not realize how excellent a thing that is? I mean, sure, they’re not Rollins and Utley, but they’re a hell of a lot better than the combination that most teams have. We don’t have an effective fill-in for either player, so if we move them to fill another hole, especially left field, we just create another one. And, really, almost all hitters are streaky. It happens, and a lot of it is just randomness. So, even if KJ is particularly streaky, it’s not as though anyone in the big leagues doesn’t have bad spells and good spells.
by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 6, 2008 10:54 PM EST reply actions
i love kj but if it’s him of escobar then kj goes i guess. just really like escobar’s instincts
by ATLBravesYouthMovement on Nov 7, 2008 12:56 AM EST reply actions
Disagree.
If Yunel is traded, Kotchman moves into the two-hole and Kelly stays at #6 in the order. Sadly, our 2B has flashed more power than our 1B, but – thankfully – the latter at least has a solid OBP. I’d be OK with Yunel, Reyes and Locke for Peavy so long as we get his contract as is (no extended no-trade cluase or pre-accepted team option) and we can secure the return to Atlanta of one of our old SS (either Furcal or Rents). Raffy’s injury lasy season should make him reasonably affordable and Edgar (who would come dirt cheap) could have yet another rebirth by returning to a southeastern NL team.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
I guess I'm in the minority
Since I prefer we keep KJ and let Escobar go. I don’t think Escobar will improve over time, what you see now is what you’re going to get. And I think his antics with umpires are going to shrink the strikezone for him over the next couple years. I can see KJ improving at the plate and turning into a consistant, disciplined hitter, and a solid defensive 2nd baseman.
Also, there are better free agent options at SS than 2B this year, as long as the Padres don’t stick us with Greene in a Peavy trade, which now looks unlikely. I’m not oppossed to seeing what Lillibridge can do full time. We had alot of good years with a SS that was great defensively but no better than a #8 hitter.
Meh
There is really no reason why you keep the weaker hitting Escobar over the superior hitter in Kelly unless you want a team full of defensive wizards and weaker bats.
Me I like to score runs. The logical choice is to deal the more overrated Yunel Escobar.
Since when was Escobar overrated at all?
That’s news to me. The fact that Escobar plays short makes his bat more valuable than Kelly Johnson’s because it’s easier to find a replacement level bat at 2nd than short. And if you throw in the fact that Escobar is an elite defensive SS while KJ is an average defensive 2B, well, then it should be a no brainer. Preventing runs and scoring runs are both good ideas, and you shouldn’t overlook either one.
Hes overrated
Because people talk like hes an elite untouchable caliber talent when he has never hit at that level. The real Yunel is the yunel we had in 08, weak hitting plus defender short stop.
Im not saying hes a bad player, but hes not this elite level guy, and if you can get Jake Peavy for him you do it. This is the 07 Cy Young Winner we are talking about right?
So who..
..then do you replace Escobar with? The SS FA market isn’t deep, is old and expensive. Why trade to make one part better, but then weaken a premium defensive position?
That’s not good baseball smarts if you ask me.
Keep in mind that Escobar was injured 80 percent of the time in 2008. If he’s healthy, I have to believe that his numbers are closer to those he put up in 2007 than last year.
Brent Lillibridge
Yeah he sucked last year but his glove is better than Escobars. And for an 8th place hitter thats what mostly matters.
You Replace his Glove a superior defender
Where do you get that?
…Escobar was second in the MAJORS in defense this year, how many times does this need to be explained to people? Hell if it wasn’t for his injured shoulder, he most likely would’ve taken top honors as he was leading the league in plus/minus for a majority of the season. And we’re not talking just National League here..we’re talking the whole shooting match.
Lillibridge isn't the right guy
If Lillibridge could hit .250, he could be the answer. He’s fast, and he’s a solid defensive shortstop, so they could carry him in the #8 spot in the lineup if he could hit a lick.
But I really think the people pushing Lillibridge are missing a basic fact. This guy projects to be a sub.200 major league hitter. He strikes out way too much. He has no hitting discipline, and he has a lot of holes in his swing too. Lillibridge is Jeff Francoeur with no power. The minor leagues are littered with players with Lillibridge’s shortcomings. They should have packaged him after the 2007 season.
Yes i know
Yes i know that Escobar had the seccond best plus minus behind Jimmy Rollins. Congratulations for reading Billajmesonline.
Most Scouts agree that Brent Lillibridge is still a superior defender to Yunel Escobar. Hes faster too.
Who are most scouts?
Can I see some sources on that. And yes I read Bill James, what exactly is wrong with that? There are a ton of sites I read everyday – and you could as you might be implying that I’m a “stathead” or whatever. If the data is out there, why not use it?
It’s better to back my arguments with facts, than just saying “Most Scouts….” because I don’t have have access to scouting reports, so that must mean you know more than me..
I dont think i was hating
Just because i mentioned where your info came from, doesnt mean i was hating on it or anything. I enjoy “stathead” talk as much as the next guy. The “statheads” at Baseball prospectus, for instance said about Lilli that … Lillibridge is the better defensive player and has stronger secondary skills… (Refering to him vs Esco). The general consensus is that Lilli is a better defender. Hes certainly worlds better than Prado is.
Sorry...
..people have me on the defensive today for some odd reason. I’ll have to poke around BP to see what they have to say about Lillibridge.
Well yeah he’s better than Prado…that’s a given.
Escobar vs. Johnson
As has already been well-stated , Escobar is farther from arbitration than Johnson, and Escobar is also the far better defensive middle infielder of the two.
Additionally, the Braves have other alternatives at 2b (e.g., Prado, Infante), but there are no other major league-ready shortsops anywhere in the Braves’ system. They have already said Infante isn’t an everyday SS. Brandon Hicks certainly isn’t anywhere close to being ready, and I don’t buy the idea that Lillibridge can play everyday with his frequent strikeouts and sub-Francoeur level of plate discipline.
I can only think of two possible reasons to keep Johnson over Escobar….(1) Johnson is a lefthanded hitter and (2) Johnson would be the best current option inside the Braves’ system to slide over and play 3b after Chipper retires. Neither of those factors has any relevance in 2009, but either or both could come into play later.
All of this may be moot, though. Kevin Towers wants Escobar, so Yunel may be a Padre by next week. If that happens, it will be very, very interesting to see what Frank Wren decides to do about the gaping hole at SS.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Talking Chop
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Get a grip: Reds’ Todd Frazier loses bat, still connects for home run (Video)
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
