Sheets or Peavy?
by BravesFan on Nov 4, 2008 7:16 PM EST
47 comments
Sheets at around $16 mil a year for 4 years
Peavy at $15.5 mil a year for 4 years as well as giving up prospects and valuable players such as Escobar, Schafer, etc....
I have to go with signing Sheets even though he's injury prone. Peavy is a TJ candidate wating to happen. Sheets can anchor any staff and his injuries have been more nagging rather than season ending so far. Just my thoughts.
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Just to add to my comment. If we can pull off a trade for Ludwick using KJ and add a Garland or a Looper to our staff, we look pretty good next year and we keep all our prospects!!!
rotation:
Sheets
Jurrjens
Garland
Morton(until Smoltz comes back)
Parr
Escobar
Prado/Kennedy
Chipper
Ludwick
McCann
Kotchman
Francoeur
Schafer
ADAM KENNEDY!??!?!?!? seriously, yo u CANNOT be serious.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
First of all, I think any KJ-Ludwick trade will involve us taking Kennedy. Trading for Khalil Greene would be alot worse for us. Kennedy is a veteran and can be a lefty/righty platoon with Prado. Kennedy is a career .276 .328. Garland has won over 100 games and he’s only 29. He’s a solid innings eater, but not spectacular. I’m not creating a championship team for 09, but protecting our prospects and acquiring guys who can help us for the next few years. That’s the goal. Once Hudson comes back and Hanson moves in for 2010, you’re looking at Garland as potentially your #5 starter.
Holy crap...
…I don’t know even where to start this one.
And for Pujols sake, I hate rosterbation. Maybe Gondee could throw up a rosterbation thread so people can get it out of their Pujols damn system.
And as it’s been mentioned.
1. Smoltz will return, to the pen if he returns.
2. Parr isn’t the fifth starter, and will wind up back in the minors.
3. Prado isn’t a starter, he’s a role player. Nothing more. Nothing less.
4. Don’t get me started on Jon Garland, puhleeezze.
Why isn’t Parr the fifth starter? He may not win a job out of spring training and he may end up back in the minors, but what makes you so positive that he doesn’t belong in the rotation? He had a great season between AA and AAA, in fact he was pretty dominant, and he showed some flashes of that in his short time in the bigs. To me, this guy has proven he deserves a shot at the rotation for 2009 and he has the kind of ability and knowledge of pitching to make it work. So why are you so sure he’s not a big leaguer.
And I won’t even ask about Prado. The guy can hit, plain and simple, he’s probably going to be Atlanta’s second baseman in 2009 and he’s going to prove a lot of people wrong.
You're going to base an entire season..
..on what Prado put up in August/Sept? That’s just stupid, yes he put up a shiny .432/.455/.649 in August – but keep in mind he only had 77 Plate Appearances in August. That’s a damn small sample size to say that “He can hit plain and simple”. He had close to 100 PA’s in September, but that’s still a VERY VERY small sample to work with, and he came down to earth a bit hitting .268/.337/.649 which maybe closer to what he can do, but I wouldn’t bank on it.
He had a grand total of 28 xBH over 228 at-bats. He has absolutely no power to speak of. His best asset is he can play more than one infield position and amazingly Bobby Cox used him right. The guy doesn’t know how to take a walk either, with a with a BB/K of 0.72.
Again beware small sample size ahead.
OPS+ by Month followed by PA
March/April 98, 43
May 141, 2
June 84, 37
July 84, 37
August 189, 74
September 82, 58
What there screams, every day player to you? Again all small sample size and I’m pretty sure you stretch that out over a full season, you’re going to get maybe league average. Pitchers will figure him out and he wont know what to do about it. Other than August and May he was under league average at the plate. He’s a -3 defensively at 2B, where he would play if the Braves are stupid enough to trade KJ. So between him and KJ defensively is a wash as Kelly was a -1 at 2B, so actually Scooter is the better defender as well.
So what in all that screams OMG!!!!111oneoneone he should be starting at second and we should trade Kelly Johnson??
I’m not basing it off of two months this year, I’m basing it off of Martin’s highly productive minor league career and the countless times I’ve watch the guy hit. He’s a high quality, professional hitter. No, he’s not gonna hit home runs, but he will hit a bunch of doubles and he will do one thing Kelly can’t do, be consistent.
And I don’t think the Braves should trade Kelly so that Martin can play, but Kelly has value, they’re trying to rebuild their team and they have a guy who can play second at a major league level behind him. The team is gonna trade Kelly and make Martin the second baseman. You might want to get on board, cause it’s gonna happen.
And you didn’t answer me about James Parr.
I know I didn't answer on Parr, but...
…I will. But back to Prado, listen I guess we’re going to just disagree on this. I’m looking at his minor league numbers right now, and still don’t see what you see.
And if you make them the Major League Equivalent they’re even worse. Head over to MinorLeagueSplits.com to see for yourself, nothing says and translates to Prado being a productive every day player in the major leagues.
Again we’re going to have to agree to disagree.
Yeah, we can agree to disagree. I’m always thankful for the posters that are sensible and rational.
And again, I personally like Martin, I don’t think he’s anywhere near the kind of player that Kelly is, but Kelly is eligible for arbitration, a lot of teams seem to covet him, and trading him seems like a viable way to quickly acquire the kind of pieces the Braves need. And, whether we like it or not (frankly I think Kelly is one of the nicest guys in baseball and I don’t want to see him go) the Braves seem pretty set on trading him and putting Prado in as the starter.
Parr...
He’s only had 9 starts above the AA level in the minors, and I just think he would benefit from a full year with the G-Braves (man that’s going to take some getting used to after referring to them as the R-Braves for so many years). He’s got four pitches, and uses his fastball over 70% of the time, which in the Majors will get you KILLED. He needs work on his secondary pitches, namely his slider and hook.
I just feel the best course of action for Parr is to be a part of the G-Braves rotation for a full (or almost full) season. There’s no need to rush him, and honestly the same could be said about Morton IMO, but he’s most likely going to be in the Braves rotation next season.
I see your point that he could use more seasoning, and the reality is, who couldn’t? If the Braves make a bunch of great moves (hopefully they will) and the state of the team changes dramatically, then maybe they’ll have that luxury. But, if they continue to look like a second tier team, then it wouldn’t hurt them to have Parr in the bigs, learning on the job, cause he’s mature enough to handle it.
And G-Braves isn’t that hard, we called Greenville that for 20 years.
I'm on the same page with you there..
…One pitcher learning on the job would be better than two IMO, and that’s what we would have with him and Morton in the rotation. Morton has his own set of problems and though he had plenty of time to work on them – I’m not sure it would be wise to have both of them in the rotation at the same time.
I’m not sure if I made sense with that….lol
This is nice
In all seriousness, I like the back-and-forth you two have going here. A good, healthy disagreement with plenty of respect for each other.
All newer members, take note – this is what a message board argument should look like.
Forgot a few things:
KJ’s BB/K ratio is absolutely horrible. I believe its .46. A .72 ratio is probably well above the league average.
Prado was playing four postions. Kinda tough to settle in defensively under those conditions. Kelly didn’t have that excuse.
Kelly had two good months out of six. Those two months, he was 72/191 for a .376 BA. The other four months, he was 85/356 for a .238 BA. Did the same last year, only it was the first two months of the year and he fell off the radar after that. Inconsistant isn’t quite strong enough.
We face eleven contending teams in that last two months. They used their best pitchers, not Sept call-ups. Prado held his own against them and then some. He seemed to be in the middle of nearly every rally during that time. Even with his outs, he managed to hit to the appropriate side of the field when called for. Showed a high baseball IQ.
Prado was a rookie with inconsistant playing time, playing four positions, and going against the best teams in the NL. Did pretty well under those conditions.
Also, he was 2nd in the IL batting title race. when called up last year. Chipper and Cox have both raved about his ability to hit and they have pretty good credentials.
While the pitchers will get to know him, he will get to know the pitchers. Why should the advantage go to the pitcher?
Is Prado a star in the making? I don’t know. Buthe sure isn’t as average as you are making him.
Who our 4th and 5th starters are next year is pretty irrelevent since we won’t be competing. I think those spots should be open to developing a couple of young starters. Hanson hopefully will be up at some point next year. Some don’t like Garland and others don’t like KJ for Ludwick deal. I don’t like the idea of dealing KJ either so I can take or leave that deal.
Anyway, getting back to my main original post about Sheets or Peavy considering equal salaries but one will command prospects and possibly Escobar in a deal. Which one would you choose?
Who our 4th and 5th starters are next year is pretty irrelevent since we won’t be competing
Nothing drives me more insane that this statement. Who says we can’t at least make a go of it? But to throw in the towel and say we’re going to suck from the git go is just an insane concept to me. Do you think the Braves themselves are saying “Well we’re going to suck next year, so who cares who our 4th and 5th guys in the rotation are”….
cant disagree… what if the Rays had decided to not compete, or the Cards (who were in it till the end)… neither team had high expectations but everyone should see what happens maybe thigns go our way (lets face we’re due to win some one run games, and some road games).
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
The Rays were expected to play at least .500 ball because of their talent and ended up exceeding expectations. They reached that point by building a team around young talent and they will be competitive for many years because of it. We may exceed expectations as well if Schafer and Hanson can contribute next year and have impact rookie years.
LOL – aggravating isn’t it.
Take it from me, trying to prove a point to this guy is like ramming your finger up your nose. It is very unpleasant and rarely nets anything worthwhile.
Aggravating is right...
…drives me insane. Been watching baseball wayyyy to long to say “F’it we’re screwed” and just toss the 2009 season aside like garbage. And you’re right about BravesFan, I should’ve seen the handle before I replied.
if we’re not gonna compete, why should we add payroll, subtract young cheap players under control for years, and try to improve? why not jsut throw out a rotation of jurrjens/campillo/morton/reyes/hanson and take that 100 loss season with a smile on our face? if we’re not gonna compete, fuck, why not trade chipper and mccann for YOUNG TALENT and payroll space?
do you SEE where your fault is here, or are you gonna keep playing the “waaaaaaaah i’m right and you’re wrong so THERE” attitude?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
Because McCann is under contract for five seasons. Dealing Chipper would have off-field effects (loss of season ticket holders, merchandising) in addition to his on-field subtraction. And he’s a one year rental who has injury issues. Sure a team might be willing to give us value for a guaranteed 130 games, but that can’t be guaranteed.
Look, can we all be adults here? Why is it so difficult to have a discussion on here without posters getting all personal and offended?
I know you’re joking, but it wouldn’t be wise to throw out the rotation you suggested for 2 reasons. 1st, you will see alot of fans voice their displeasure by not going to games, merchandising, etc. Most fans are fair-weather fans and want to win now.
2nd, the pitching staff needs a couple of veteran starters to anchor the staff and help the youngsters. I don’t have any facts to back this up, but I think there are more than a few reasons for this including taking pressure off the rookies and mentoring them.
McCann is young talent and Chipper is well Chipper. No die hard Braves fan wants him traded for anything.
2009 is where we start to build the team for the future around our young players. I don’t have high expectations for next season. If we keep the team the way it is now, we may lose 100 games next year. I think adding a couple of free agent pitchers will help us, but we will hardly turn the corner and trading for Peavy will cost us too much in our rebuilding efforts and we probably won’t get the returns we desire. In addition, we would be trading Escobar in that deal. You don’t make trades to weaken another position to strenghten another, you make trades from areas of strength.
The fans who want to re-build the Braves are far and few on this board I’ve noticed. Many have a must compete-must win now attitude. Are we turning into the Mets?
Oh we can compete, no doubt about that. There is some combination of free agent signings, luck, and trades of prospects that will get us to the high 80s win total that we will need to contend for the playoffs. The question is whether making those moves is desirable for the future competitiveness of the organization.
I say it isn’t. Long-term free agent contracts have been shown to be the worst committments of resources because the salary at worst stays the same as production inevitably tails off as you move away from the peak. Whoever signs 28 year old C.C. Sabathia to a seven year contract is not going to get 28 or 31 year old CC Sabathia those last few seasons. They’ll still be paying for him though.
Now, some say we can avoid long-term free agent committments through the trade market, using the fruit of our very strong/deep farm system to bring in top players. However, I question the logic of trading established productive players like Escobar for a guy like Jake Peavy who outside of 2009 is going to get paid like and is going to decline like the free agent described above.
BP has a blog post today about developing a team plan in 25 words or less. Meaningless fluff certainly, but my contribution was:
“Braves: Turn deep farm system into young players controlled for at least three seasons; avoid patching holes with expensive fixes; committ to developing young players.”
Maybe that plan doesn’t lead to a competitive team next year, but it certainly will in 2010 and 2011. I’d rather endure a losing season next year followed by a string of contending seasons than blow our load on a not so ideal oppurtunity in 2009 and continued mediocrity going forward.
And there’s nothing wrong with deciding to punt on a season. It eliminates little expensive patches like Mark Kotsay and Tom Glavine from being brought in and recognizes that playing with holes is a chance to develop young talent and give guys an extra chance (Carlos Pena). There’s little material difference between 70-92 and 78-84. Those eight wins cost precious resources that can be put into contending in later years.
I respectfully disagree
Which seems to be more courtesy than you give to those whom you disagree with…
Tre’s nothing wrong with the reasoning that if you have young pitchers with high upside (e.g., the Rays), you leave 1-2 rotation spots open for them in the hope that they will reach their potential. That’s not necessarily throwing away the season, it’s just making sure that the guys you want to develop aren’t blocked by someone who’s making a ton of money. If your guys turn into good pitchers, your team has a good season, if not, well, there’s always next year. The other point is that signing veteran pitchers doesn’t guarantee success. Glavine got hurt after never going on the DL in his career. Hudson blew out his elbow. If the Braves trade for Peavy and sign Sheets and they both land on the DL for big portions of the season, what then?
Peavy Over Sheets any day
Peavy over Sheets any day. Sheets is a great pitcher when healthy. He broke down during the brewers playoff run and has been hurt for the most part of his career. Why take a chance on Sheets when Peavy obviously wants to come to Atlanta?
agreed, Campillo should be in there as the 4th starter and I’d rather sign Tazawa-Sheets then get Garland. Garland will be a waste. If we get Tazawa then we have two legitamite starters that should be ready by about mid-season. We will get by fine with Sheets-Jurrjens-Campillo-Morton-Glavine/Hampton until then, but once Hanson and Tazawa come up, LIGHTS OUT!
Why do we *need*..
…a Left handed starter? Is there some rule I’m unaware of that mandates a lefty in the rotation? I understand what your saying, but it’s not a pressing need to have a lefty in the rotation. I’d rather have the best arms available, if they all happen to be right handed – so be it. Same can be said for left handers as well.
I agree
It’s not necessity, but I guess baseball teams like to be diverse.
Here’s a situation – what would you do?*
Starting five:
RHP Smoltz, John
RHP Halladay, Roy
RHP Webb, Brandon
RHP Mussina, Mike
Alright, we need one more pitcher to fill out our rotation – who’s left to take?
RHP Lincecum, Tim
LHP Redman, Mark
Aw jeez, we HAVE to have a lefty . . . y’know, for when we take on teams like the Phillies . . . with all their lefty batters . . . we’ll take Mark Redman . . . yeah . . . that’s my final answer, Regis . . .
*pure theoretical. No need to mention that Smoltz won’t start this year.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
Lincecum vs. Redman
That’s the stupidest question I’ve ever seen. You clearly go with Redman to balance the rotation!! Have you never followed baseball?!?
So you’re comparing Parr and Morton to Lincecum? Stupid analogy. Of course you take the RH if the discrepancy in talent is that great. I’d rather have Hampton than Parr or Morton and the fact he’s a lefty makes it that much easier a decision. Especially in a division with the Phillies.
No.
I was agreeing to comment I responded to, that I disagree with the notion that every team NEEDS a LHP in the rotation, and to take the better pitcher over which arm they pitch with.
Not your particular comment’s example of comparing Hampton to Parr or Morton, because barring health, I’d much rather have Hampton over the others, but because I think he’s the better pitcher, not because he’s just a lefty.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
The simple answer is...
…Peavy. Sheets is already going to attract big $$, but he’s very injury prone. The Braves can’t screw this one up if they want to make a run next year.
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