O's may fit as third team in Peavy deal
by AlRoBraves95 on Nov 30, 2008 1:27 PM EST
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I think that even replacing Pie with Olson isn’t an offer to blow Kevin Towers away, so he’ll call Wren before he moves Peavy to give Wren a chance to match or beat the Cubs’ offer. If they were involving a real pitching prospect like a Homer Bailey or a Phil Hughes, I might be worried. But really, this is Garrett Olson we’re talking about.
Really?
How do you figure that? At least Bailey has upside.
I’m going on pure personal observation. Between seeing these two pitch a bit (Bailey about five times and Olson about 25) and talking with them, Olson is just the better bet.
Bailey’s own teammates don’t like him and he’s something of an egomaniac. He thinks he can survive just throwing fastballs and doesn’t understand why he keeps getting hit. I just don’t see him adapting and succeeding.
Olson, on the other hand, is a thinker, the guy has a degree in engineering and he devotes a ton of time to studying video, not only of opposing hitters, but of his own mechanics. He shows the ability to adapt within a game and I think he has all the tools to succeed. How many other flame throwers have fizzled out and been passed over by smart soft-tossers, especially lefties. I think with a better organization that knew what to do with pitchers, he’d be successful.
You may be right in the end. I have never liked Bailey at all, for exactly the reasons you cited. However, I would bet that Bailey remains much more highly regarded within the baseball community than Olson, because front offices seem to like guys with stuff rather than guys with good attitudes (and they aren’t always wrong on that count). I would think that Bailey’s trade value is significantly higher, and would be more tempting for Kevin Towers.
As much as you may like Olson, a 6.87 ERA in 165 big-league innings makes you look like a Quad-A guy. But Bailey still has that mystique of the prospect he used to be, and teams are attracted to that. Point is, I’m not that worried about Garrett Olson being a deal-breaker to the extent that the Braves would have to significantly up their offer. Bailey…well, I could see Towers liking him enough to where Frank Wren would have to make big adjustments to the Braves’ offer if Peavy is to come to Atlanta. (Because, yes, end of the day, we NEED Jake Peavy.)
From a trade value perspective I completely agree with you. Bailey has much more value and probably will until he completely proves he can’t pitch, for the very reason you said, he throws hard. Teams will always be convinced that a hard thrower will turn into a pitcher.
As far as Oslon, the problem he’s run into in the majors more than anything is out-thinking himself. He’s talked about it and he knows that’s the problem. I think he’s going to be a good pitcher and yeah, that’s a very high ERA for roughly a full season of pitching, but that whole team sports high ERAs. It’s a couple runs lower, but Tommy Glavine had something like a 5 ERA after that many innings in the bigs.
Stupid Padres
This would still not beat the package that Braves are offering, so the Padres would be getting less value than on offer from the Braves. Any package involving Escobar beats any offer the Cubs can make. This isn’t hard to see and Wren should stay strong.
Want Burnett and Maggs. We can easily afford both, and keep Yesco/KJ, with plenty left over to sign the Unit. Make it happen FW.
Back off Frank...
Towers is an idiot. Let Peavy go wherever Towers can get rid of him. The Cubs will never win a WS with or without Peavy, so if Peavy is looking for a ring, he can forget it!
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