The "Baseball People" Think Peavy Will Wind Up in Atlanta
by gondeee on Nov 3, 2008 9:34 PM EST
in Braves Trade News
Email
PrintOver at ESPN.com, Jerry Crasnick and company surveyed "15 general managers, assistant GMs, baseball operations people and scouts" on several questions, one being, "Will the Padres trade pitcher Jake Peavy?" The responses he got seem to point overwhelmingly towards our Atlanta Braves:
Responses: 13 say Peavy will be traded, 2 say no.
Possible destinations: Atlanta 9, Dodgers 1, St. Louis 1, Cubs 1. The other "yes" voter said the Padres will trade Peavy "to anyone who'll give them four prospects."
Padres general manager Kevin Towers seems awfully motivated. He has a legitimate No. 1 starter, with a team that's not going to contend and a mandate to keep the payroll in line; Jake Peavy could bring several promising young players in return.
"Based on what I've seen, it sure sounds like [there'll be a deal]," said a National League scout. "There's been quite a bit of smoke." The Braves are the popular choice for a number of reasons. They've been the most aggressive suitor, and they have enough young talent to satisfy the Padres even after digging deep into the system to acquire Mark Teixeira a year ago. San Diego will have a tough time prying loose pitcher Tommy Hanson, who's tearing up the Arizona Fall League, or 19-year-old outfield prospect Jason Heyward, but there's more in Atlanta's cupboard. [...]
The most interesting note to me in this piece is the one other voter who said Peavy will go "to anyone who'll give [the Padres] four prospects." The other teams in this Peavy race really don't seem to have four prospects to give, but the Padres apparently covet our shortstop Yunel Escobar, so the Braves might be able to get away with Yunel and two prospects -- especially if we give the Padres even more financial flexibilty by taking Khalil Greene off their hands (not that this blogger thinks we should).
Both Peavy and Greene's salaries for 2009 equal $17.5 million ($11 for Peavy and $6.5 for Greene). If we really do have $40 million that we can spend this off-season, then using less than half of it on this deal seems like a fine use of money. Consider too that Greene will be a free agent next year and his salary will come off our books. Of course, we'd be hoping that Greene blossoms away from the pitcher-friendly confies of the Padres home park (he does hit 45 points higher on the road).
The more articles like this I read the more this trade seems like a foregone conclusion. It appears that the Padres will spend this week at the GM Meetings seeing if there are any other interesting offers for their ace pitcher. They will likely find none, so they may either try and convice Peavy to expand his list of acceptable teams or they may be forced to go back to Atlanta. It's still in their best interest to trade Peavy sooner rather than later, before all the free agent pitchers start hitting the market. That's why I still think we'll see this deal get done in the next couple of weeks -- before the Winter Meetings.
I'd be willing to bet that Tommy Hanson is one of the sticking points of this trade, with the Padres insisting upon his inclusion. In Frank Wren's camp the hardline has got to be that including Hanson is a deal-breaker. Once the Padres see that other teams don't have what they need, perhaps they will loosen their demands. That's what we're waiting on right now.
In that same article by Crasnick, we also got a vote for one of the possible destinations for free agent Ken Griffey Jr... but that's another topic of another day.
25 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
interesting thought
its obvious that the Padres won’t contend in 2009 or 2010 so I would think that we could give them one major league ready player such as Shaffer and one guy who is ready but doesn’t have as high of a ceiling in Lilibridge and then some guys who are farther away but have potential. Also I have been reading on other sites that the Cubs could be a player for him but I just don’t see it. They really don’t have a stud minor leaguer to build the deal around except Vitters but he is a long way away. Maybe someone who knows the Cubs system better could shed some light on this.
Not so obvious
The Padres have contended in 4 of the last 5 years when they had as little or less talent. This is probably because they play in the weak NL West, but may also have to do with great pitching in a pitcher friendly ballpark.
They have said that they are looking for 2 proven major league players and prospects for Peavy. Its not reasonable to assume they will give him up for Schafer and some lower level prospects.
Do you know what we get to do today? We get to talk baseball!
www.websoulsurfer.com
by websoulsurfer on Nov 4, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Sheep.
These guys are the same people that were pumping some absurd rumors about what we’d give up to get Peavy. Truth is, he won’t be a Brave unless we get a great deal for him. If San Diego is really into rebuilding for a while and no other team in baseball blows them out of the water, we should be able to send them four prospects that are farther off or not quite as good as the headliners being mentioned in the press. Couldn’t we put out something like, say, Gorkys, Freeman/Flowers and two pitching prospects not named Hanson/Teheran and just wait it out?
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
Agreed
I’m not a fan of Escobar being in this deal. Gorkys, Freeman/Flowers (1B’s are a dime a dozen), and two of (Medlen, Rohrbough, Locke, Kimbrell, Devall, Osuna, Redmond, or Diamond) ought to be enough in my opinion. The inclusion of Escobar for Greene upsets my stomach but I can’t say it’s a deal breaker for me.
if 1Bs are a dime a dozen why hasnt our system produced a decent one since LaRoche left?
i like ur deal, i just disagree 1B are a dime a dozen
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
yup
trading Escobar would be huge mistake for this club. you dont trade away young SS talent for uncertainty at the position in the future. the braves blew thier SS depth when they gave up Elvis Andrus and i just cant see them blowing it again. A deal with Gorkys, FF/TF, and Rohrbrough/Medlen (maybe throw in Morton or Reyes for good measure) would be solid for both ends. It might not be what the padres hoped for but it is the best they are going to get…
I assume you don’t realize that the Padres have Adrian Gonzales at 1B and top prospect Kyle Blanks about ready in their farm system.
Gonzales hit 36 home runs for a team that plays in THE hardest park in baseball for a left hand batting power hitter. Not likely that they would even be interested in a 1B in trade for Peavy.
The Padres have made it clear that they want 2 major league players and prospects so the players you named will not be enough.
The Padres have been scouting both Schafer and Hanson but not Gorkys Hernandez. Since he is a year or more away from the majors I don’t think he is on their wish list.
Possibly a trade that includes Escobar, Jurrjens, Schafer and Medlen or Rohrbaugh would get the job done.
Taking on Greene’s $6.5 million salary in the trade might soften the demands by the Padres, but I would not think not by much.
Do you know what we get to do today? We get to talk baseball!
www.websoulsurfer.com
by websoulsurfer on Nov 4, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
You assume wrong
The 1B I mentioned is still at least 2/3 years away from the Majors, which should coincide with the completion of the Pads rebuilding efforts. What do you think will happen in 2/3 years when AG becomes an FA? It gives the Pads options!
“The Padres have been scouting both Schafer and Hanson but not Gorkys Hernandez. Since he is a year or more away from the majors I don’t think he is on their wish list.” True, I personally have no problem switching G Hernandez with J Schafer.
“Possibly a trade that includes Escobar, Jurrjens, Schafer and Medlen or Rohrbaugh would get the job done.” That’s absolutely fucking hiliarious! Keep dreaming!
That deal...
would be horrendous for us. Give up a solid young pitcher, a top flight defensive shortstop who has shown an aptitude for getting on base, the closest thing we have to a ML ready center fielder, and a high upside pitching prospect? That’s almost as one sided as the deal the A’s pulled on St. Louis a few years back – Mulder for Haren, Kalero, and Barton.
by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 5, 2008 2:22 AM EST up reply actions
As if it matters
My thoughts are that this will play out a little like the Johan sweeps last year where every big time East Coast prospect was rumoured to be in a package for Johan. The Mets ended up getting him for just a little bit more than a poopoo platter of prospects.
The contract situations aren’t the same, but it seems like Towers has been told to get rid of him for the best package and even without Hanson and Heyward, the Braves seem to be able to offer that package. I think Wren needs to hold out and get his man for four prospects not name Heyward, Freeman or Hanson. I would rather give up Gorkys, but I could live with the loss of Shafer.
I hardly consider the deal they got a poopoo platter (although it is a great use of words), they got some very serious talent and the Twins deepened their system drastically. However, i think the comparison could prove spot on, i dont see any of our big names being moved, i see a group of 4 mid to mid-high level prospects.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
my top offer
Assuming Dr. Andrews signs off on Peavy’s elbow, my absolute top final offer would be:
Braves get: Peavy and Brian Giles
Padres get Escobar, Brandon Jones, Matt Diaz, Chuck James, and Redmond.
And I would go with Lillibridge batting 8th at SS, in the Rafael Belliard GFNH tradition.
This would leave one job undone, a free agent starter.
your kidding right. Outside of Escobar that is the worst trade offer ever. Diaz will be non-tendered, James has no value but might be serviceable at PetCo, Jones isn’t bad but is entering Felix Pie territory where he might just be a fourth outfielder. Redmond is okay but not the kind of player that the Padres would want.
the sad thing is
he’s not kidding. this is the kind of shit you have to deal with here.
by son.of.sourman on Nov 4, 2008 2:03 AM EST up reply actions
peavy isn't worth it
unless you are thinking about competing this year or next. unfortunately, the world champion phillies are in the division, as well as the formidable mets. but luckily, their farm systems aren’t even close to that of the braves, so why not wait it out a couple of years for these guys to develop and not trade the farm in the mean time? If I recall, the last time the braves tried to do that they lost out on top 10 prospect neftali feliz, top prospect elvis andrus, and a first round pick for trying to resurrect the career of tom glavine.
i could understand if peavy was a bit younger and not the max effort kind of guy he is. but the thing about peavy is that he never pitches well on short rest, meaning he doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room. even if he doesn’t have any injury problems in the coming years, as he moves away from his peak his effectiveness should drop off dramatically as he loses velocity.
Agree 100%
There’s no need to rush things. Peavy is not the only good pitcher that will be available to the Braves ever again. FW doesn’t need to chase. The only “prospects” that are semi-blocked or have shown questionable potential are B. Jones, Lillibridge, and JoJo. All three could dramatically raise their trade value for next offseason with a good showing in 2009.
Hmmmmm
Maybe its because only 17% of prospects at AA or above actually become viable ML players with a career of at least 3 years?
ALL prospects, regardless of how highly regarded they are, are question marks. Maybes.
Peavy is a proven commodity. Among the best of the best.
If you can get a true ace for a maybe, you have to at least take a shot at landing him.
Do you know what we get to do today? We get to talk baseball!
www.websoulsurfer.com
by websoulsurfer on Nov 4, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
$20 says Peavy needs TJ before the contract is over
Whatever. Just don’t trade Escobar, Hanson, or Heyward. And Khalil Green sucks.
Peavy likely to be a Brave in 2009
First let me say that anyone who thinks the PAdres will not compete before 2011 in the weak NL West has no understanding of Alderson, Moores or the NL West..
In 4 of the past 5 years they have been competitive in that division with 2 playoff apearances and 4 winning seasons. ALL with older castoffs.
Trading Peavy is about filing holes with young ML and ML ready players, not abandoning all hope.
I really think the Padres are trying to move Greene with Peavy and that Greene’s inclusion has been the sticking point from the Braves point of view, not Tommy Hanson.
The Padres have had several scouts at each of Hanson’s last 3 starts in the AFL at the invitation of the Braves (they were sitting in seats reserved for Braves personnel) and lying is rampant when it comes to GM’s talking about trades.
I think Towers has been trying to let Padres fans know that he may trade Peavy for 3 MAJOR league players instead of 2-3 ML READY players and 3+ prospects like the Haren trade included.
The Braves have made it clear that they are willing to trade either Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson or both.
Perhaps we are looking at a major league trade of Peavy & Greene for Escobar, Johnson, and Jurrjens plus prospects like Schafer and Medlen.
All 5 of those players could crack the Padres 2009 lineup.
The Braves have incredible depth at middle infield so they would be able to trade both starting infielders without too much of a drop in performance.
Lillibridge is ready to take over at SS and several young players that can fill the void at 2nd including Prado who hit .320 in 78 games while Johnson was hurt. Diory Henandez and Derrick Arnold are not far behind.
The latest I read on the Peavy trade front is this:
San Diego is shopping ace Jake Peavy in the lobbies of the hotel, where a bagel goes for $5.50 and a kobe burger with truffle cheese fetches $28.
Peavy is guaranteed $63 million over the next four seasons, and Padres GM Kevin Towers said he had talked exclusively with one unidentified team about a trade before enlarging the field. Towers would like two major league players plus prospects in return.
"His preference is still the National League. He likes that part of the game," Towers said. "I’ve got maybe a handful of clubs right now I’m going to focus on. A lot of those clubs we’ve already had quite a bit of dialogue."
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AiYTGGDQxoLNgxcUu.L1XnMRvLYF?slug=ap-gmmeetings&prov=ap&type=lgns
That makes it clear that Towers is not going to move Peavy for just prospects.
Wren indicated that he had made an offer for Peavy earlier so that is obviously the “one unidentified team”.
If those 2 major league players are Escobar or Johnson and Jurrjens I would feel good about that trade.
With Greene on the block as well perhaps the Padres get both Escobar and Johnson plus Jurrjens and prospects for Peavy and Greene.
“Possibly a trade that includes Escobar, Jurrjens, Schafer and Medlen or Rohrbaugh would get the job done.” – You are out of your mind! Of course that would get the job done, what major league GM wouldn’t take that offer? The problem is it’s about as realistic as fairies and trolls.
“If those 2 major league players are Escobar or Johnson and Jurrjens I would feel good about that trade.” – who wouldn’t?
The bottom line is this, if the Braves can acquire Peavy using their depth in the minors (maybe including 1 major leaguer) then they’ll pull the trigger. This is not an organization with Ned Colletti, the Braves are no fools. I doubt seriously they would pay anywhere close the price you’re asking.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
