Unfortunately, I don’t see the Braves getting any big FA pitcher. It looks like Tazawa is going to sign with Boston, the Braves won’t give Burnett 5 years (and I don’t see us beating the Yanks’ 4 yr-$81 mill offer, nor should we), and Lowe wants $16 mill a year for 4 years, which we also won’t/shouldn’t do. We NEED to make a trade, whether it’s for Peavy or whoever else; if we don’t, I think we’ll have another top 10 draft pick after next year.

Some of the reasons I’m not really all that interested in Peavy:

- The aforementioned cost in terms of prospects and the gaping hole that will be SS.
- In his career, Peavy has a 2.77 ERA at home, but a 3.80 ERA on the road.
- Peavy has given up 47 homers at home, and 81 homers on the road – even though he’s pitched 100 more innings at home than on the road.
- Peavy’s strikeout rate was noticeably down in 2008, and his walk rate was noticeably up. After striking out more than a batter per inning from 2004-2007, Peavy only struck out 8.6 batters per nine this year – and only 8.2 per nine after returning from his elbow injury. Additionally, he walked over three batters per nine this year, after never walking more than 2.87 per nine from 2004-2007.
- Home ERA in 2008 – 1.74. Road ERA in 2008 – 4.28.

Seriously, if you take PetCo out of the equation Peavy’s numbers don’t exactly jump out at you. Yunel and a bunch of prospects for Peavy? I’d rather keep our SS and gamble on Burnett, especially if we throw an incentive laden contract at his buddy Brad Penny.

heres the problem with people bringing up peavy’s road numbers as a reason for signing burnett.

peavy’s road ERA is 3.80. burnett’s career ERA? 3.81

I’d have Derek Lowe. Peavy is the best, Burnett is second best, but Lowe excels at not getting hurt. If we sign him for 4 years @ 16 mil a piece, we will get a pitcher for all 4 of those years. I know the other guys are good, but Lowe will be the best value. All we have to give up right now is money. We can’t afford to pay for a guy who gets hurt or trade away our starting position players without backups to replace them. With Lowe we risk very little, and spend about the same. My biggest complaint about Lowe is the whole Scott Boras thing, but Wren seems to know how to deal with him. Lowe adds 16mil to your salary, then I say sign someone to a one year deal like Randy Johnson, for say 10 mil. Then find yourself a free agent bat with the 14 mil that is left, think Dunn, Ibanez or Burrell. You probably won’t make it to the playoffs this year, but you haven’t lost or risked anything. But hell, with our luck Lowe will make 2 starts then visit Dr. Andrews.

If Lowe wants a contract more than two years then pass on it. If Burnett doesnt take a 3 year/2 year club option then pass on him. If Towers doesn’t get a clue then move on. The problem is GM’s let the players and the market dictate terms. The Yankees screwed the market. None of these pitchers are worth what there asking for except CC and he didn’t ask for that kind of money. Yankees have given all pitchers the opportunity to ask for ridiculous contracts. If your 35 then sorry you don’t get anything more than 3 year contract. You will statiscally get worse every year. Not everyone can be Smoltz. If you are injury prone then you shoudl be treated as such. If your a liability then your contract should be structured as such. I hope Wren doesn’t cave in. This offseason will be the precursor for years to come. Chipper has two years max left. Keep your youth and flexibility.

Sign Sheets (Same risk factor as Burnett) cheaper cost, less years.
Sign Hampton (One Year)

Play the market for Garland, Perez, Wolf, Johnson, Penny, etc….Bargain Bin Prices.
Put Smoltz back in the Pen. Make one Trade for OF

Braves will contend again with that roster. They won’t make headlines every day but they’ll compete and have a chance.

Someone else mentioned this on another thread so credit to them. I didn’t even think about it before I saw them mention it. And, yes, Vazquez appears to be quietly available.

His peripherals over the last 3-4 years have been very good. 200 K’s and 200 IP the last two seasons. About a 3.9 FIP and a tRA in the low 4’s and high 3’s. Roughly glancing at the last 3 years, I’d say this is on par with Burnett and 85-90% of Peavy. Vazquez is owed $23M over 2009 and 2010. He’s made 32 or more starts every season for the last 9 years.

I can’t find any detailed analysis of his mechanics so I wish I could post something about that. I did download this youtube clip and look at it super slow. I’m no expert by any means, but what I understand from reading Chris O’Leary’s site is that you want your arm to be in the position that Maddux’s is in as your shoulder starts to turn. Basically forearm vertical and elbow below shoulder level. Vazquez looks to be pretty good. Definitely better than Burnett or Peavy because Vazquez has no inverted L or W or similar red flags that that O’Leary mentions on his site. I think this explains why Vazquez has been so healthy.

There is one small issue because he throws a slider about 22% of the time though so unless he pronates it, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a TJ surgery out of the blue despite being healthy like Tim Hudson. Most pitchers don’t pronate their sliders, but some do like Clemens. The traditional way to throw a slider is supinated (turn the doorknob clockwise with your right hand) is what eats UCL ligaments that lead to TJ surgeries. I don’t think it’s a huge risk, but I don’t know. Either way, Vazquez has been healthier than Burnett and Peavy and isn’t 35 or 36 like Lowe. Plus he’s only a 2 year commitment.

Anyway I think Vazquez is the best target. I don’t think he’ll cost a boatload, and he’s good enough to be a weak ace or good 2 like Hudson is. If the Braves start targetting him now, I bet they could get a deal done out of the blue like Kenny Williams did with Swisher to the Yankees and at a good price. Would have been awesome if we could have gotten Swisher and Vazquez to fill two holes.

my post above isn’t pretty but it’s what a GM getting paid the big bucks should do. Unless Wren has great conversations in the winter meeting then he’s going to do some type of version of my scenario.
 
 If a trade presents itself that’s benefits us then you take it. However, you can’t plan the future on what ifs. You take the facts that you have now and you make an educated decision. We shouldn’t spend our money just because we have it. If you only spend 30 Million then you put that money towards JJ, Escobar, Schafer, Hew, Locke, Hanson, draft picks, etc……

Secure the future. Long affordable contracts. It gives the braves so many options for 2010. It allows us to be in the driver seat for years to come. The example of moves I listed above will have the Braves competing. If we don’t compete then at the deadline you dump Hampton, KJ, Soriano, etc… and pick up talent. You have a surplus of funds again for the 2010 FA market and you have serious trading chips. n

Not that I want to see him leave the Royals, but if he won’t sign this offseason…
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