Worth of Ryan Ludwick?

by mccannfan on Nov 22, 2008 9:29 PM EST Comment 42 comments

I was linked to this post on Viva El Birdos through Google Alerts and the post speculates what Ryan Ludwick is worth, or what Cardinals' fans believe he is worth. It also delves into the probable teams that could be suitors for them in a trade for Ryan Ludwick and what kind of return the Cardinals would receive for him. Their thinking would be to trade Ankiel because of him being a FA next year and then trade Ludwick later.

The part that mentions the Braves:

"The Braves do not intend to trade BOTH Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar this offseason and Escobar has been rumored to be in any trade for Peavy, a deal I still think will happen. Last year Johnson was a 2.5 WAR player. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible and will be under the team’s control for 4 more years and he’ll be 27 in February. Like Zobrist, he appears to be a downgrade defensively. Isn’t Sonnastine and Zobrist then a better package? It’s not enough.

How about Escobar? Last year, Escobar was more than a 3 WAR player at a more-premium position. He just turned 26 and is under the team’s control for 5 more years. He’s liable to be a super-2 player, however, and eligible for arbitration at the end of this season. Still, doesn’t that just mean that he’s really good? It would be a nice problem to have – an excellent young SS under the team’s control for 5 more years. Is he worth Ludwick? I’d say probably yes – certainly more than Kelly Johnson is." - Viva El Birdos

But still, apparently, Cardinals' fans would rather have Escobar than KJ for Ludwick, but again, these are fans talking. They also think KJ isn't arb-eligible this year, which he is. I'm not knocking KJ, because I like KJ and think we should keep both him and Escobar, but I do realize we might have to trade one of the two to fill a need this off season. I would rather we didn't, but I digress. Cardinals' fans think Ludwick is worth a lot more than he is after one year of success. Is he really as good as they say? What do you guys think? I've read mixed thoughts on Ludwick.

According to their post, they, as fans, would rather get pitching from the Rays than to get either Escobar or KJ from us. I don't think Wren would trade Escobar for just Ludwick, and Cardinals' fans don't think KJ is enough for Ludwick. What's y'alls take on this?

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I don’t doubt that Ludwick is a good player, but I still think that 2008 might have been a little bit of a fluke. Looking at his stats how much service time does he still have left he’s played only a few games here and there for quite a few years. Last season was the first that he got a full season of at-bats although he did get 303 in 2007. He is a very tough player to put a value on because of this. I think that Kelly Johnson and Blaine Boyer would be enough for him. I know Cardinal fans would object to that but the guy is 30 years old and only has had one good season. Johnson would fill a need and Boyer would be able to add to their bullpen as a late inning guy.

by jack dein on Nov 22, 2008 9:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my offer to stl for ludwick: martin prado, manny acosta, and matt diaz.

take it or leave it. fair offer in my mind

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Nov 22, 2008 9:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think that’s a fair offer.

I know KJ probably has more worth at this point, but I wonder why no one seems to be looking at Prado for their 2B needs if he’s so great with his bat and can take over everyday, as many people seem to think. He is more versatile than KJ with the different positions he can play. Just a thought.

- Leah
----------------------
Catcher's Blog - Braves blog by a huge Braves fan.

by mccannfan on Nov 22, 2008 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's a pretty strong offer.

I like it, if they aren’t specifically looking for pitching, I reckon that deal would get done.

by someguy917 on Nov 22, 2008 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Diaz has very little value

Prado is a solid utility guy (nothing more), and Acosta is a reliever with quality stuff with a very shaky make-up.

How is this a fair value for someone who put up a .966 OPS last season? It doesn’t matter if everyone thinks it was a fluke or not… the fact is, the guy accomplished it, and he has and will have tremendous value because of it.

by get swoll yunel on Nov 22, 2008 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In 06 and 07...

Diaz had an .830+ OPS, and he got hurt last year, where Ludwick has only one solid year. Prado is an excellent utility player and a mediocre starter, and Acosta is a great long reliever.

by someguy917 on Nov 22, 2008 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My point exactly

we overvalue those guys just like St. Louis is going to overvalue Ludwick.

by get swoll yunel on Nov 22, 2008 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Diaz OPS is inflated because he was in a platoon role… he only faced lefties… look at his splits and his numbers are clearly not indicative of how good he is, they are a product of him being used properly in 06 and 07… however Ludwick posted his 966 OPS in an everyday role… Ludwick posted around a 900 OPS against RH and a 800 OPS against LH… so id say he is a more complete hitter. Add that to the fact that Diaz is a defensive liability and Ludwick can play all 3 OF postions (although he is more suited for a corner OF spot). Yes he did play CF early in his career. Add that to the fact that if you look at Ludwick’s minor league numbers and he projects to be a 25 HR guy with a very solid OPS and you cant just say this past year was a fluke.. .his career has been decimated by injuries (which is a concern going forward), whereas Diaz is a very good RH hitter with decent pop. But ultimately Ludwick would be a drastic upgrade from anything we have int he OF, IMHO. if we could get him for Prado, Diaz and Acosta Wren couldnt pull the trigger fast enough, although i think the package will need to be quite more substantial that than.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 22, 2008 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was assume Diaz would still be platooning since he would be the 4th man in their OF.

by someguy917 on Nov 23, 2008 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

I wonder if taking out Acosta and adding Soriano is a better trade. I am not sold on Soriano. His attitude bothers me, and he can’t seem to get out of his own way.

by someguy917 on Nov 23, 2008 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what attitude, he had a structural problem with his shoulder that no one could diagnose… and what do u mean by not being able to get out of his own way… the only detrmimental thing he has doen is get injured. when he has been healthy and pitching he has been lights out for us.. go look at his stats for his first year here he had a WHIP of .86, which is ridiculous, he thre 72 innigns and was allowing well below one runnner on base per inning… thats stupidily good. and this year while injurd his WHIP is 1.14. basically the guy has good control and is unhittable… im ok with trading hiim but make sure u value him properly

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 23, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

The attitude is a one time thing that I read about where, Soriano was expected by players and staff to be at the park, and then it turned out that without telling anyone we determined we was still hurt and just went back to the Dominican Republic. You just don’t do that. You don’t leave the country without giving your team an update. Maybe I over reacted, because it didn’t seem to phase anyone in the clubhouse or front office, and I haven’t heard anything about it since. But it left an impression on me. Can’t get out of your own way is a colloquialism that in this case references his inability to keep from getting hurt. Which in my mind, if he is hurt this season, he will be the Mike Hampton of closers. So while we pay him a bunch, I think we should try to dump him off while people expect him to rebound, because I don;t think he will.

by someguy917 on Nov 23, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe a reason

My understanding, and I will stand corrected, the Braves didn’t believe he was injured and were questioning his desire and were pressuring him to pitch. He knew something was wrong and turns out he was right. The trip home was out of frustration more than an attitude problem.

by braves99 on Nov 23, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe that's what it was

Like I said I only heard it once.

by someguy917 on Nov 23, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also.....

Bobby had him warming up in a game and midway through the warm-up informed McDowell (I assume) that he wouldn’t be able to pitch. I don’t know if it was a crucial spot or not, but as I recall Bobby wasn’t happy with him for that. Not saying right or wrong, I’m just telling the tale….

by secondbass on Nov 23, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i can understnad bobby being upset about that, but in the long run id rather have a guy know he will hurt the team if he pushes it. Not only immediately but also in the logn run.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 23, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Still gotta tell your boss you are skipping work.

by someguy917 on Nov 24, 2008 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Ludwick isn’t a fluke. His peripherals are good and he’s a pretty big strong guy. He may not be a .950 OPS guy, but it’s reasonable to see .900 OPS from him. Or at least high .800. The only reason it’s taken him this long to blossom is because he’s been injury prone his career. That’s really what people should be thinking about instead of his stats being a fluke or not. But if you assume he’s healthy he’s going to be a good player.

by VictorW on Nov 23, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If I'm not mistaken...

you write for The Hardball Times, and your colleague Derek Carty wrote a very nice piece about Ludwick at THT: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/smoke-and-mirrors-ryan-ludwick/. Between a high BABIP and a high HR/FB rate, there’s definitely going to be some regression there. Think .260-.270 when the BABIP comes back from .349, and think 25-30 homers instead of 37.

That’s good, but not worth an .800 OPS player at a premium position, who also happens to be three years younger. Not going to say the Cards should trade us Ludwick for Manny Acosta, but I wouldn’t give up Kelly Johnson to get Ludwick.

by tgthree on Nov 23, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

by someguy917 on Nov 23, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am getting sick of Braves fans making stupid trade proposals. First off I’m a Braves above all else but I also think logically. Do those 3 players roughly equal Ludwick, maybe but you have to remember that he is coming off a career year and the Cardinals are going to overate him. Diaz is going to get non-tendered, is coming off of a lost year and hasn’t proven that he is anything more than a situational starter. His defense is below average and he doesn’t hit righties at all. Manny Acosta isn’t a bad player but he’s also nothing special. He hasn’t proven that he can consistently close, his walk to strikeout ratio is nothing special. Martin Prado still hasn’t proven much at the major league level. He is a solid defender but he plays at second and thats not the toughest position to play. He has no power but does hit for a good average and his strikeout to walk ratio is good. But none of these players equal to the type of player Ludwick is.

by jack dein on Nov 23, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But...

You just listed a bunch of positives about players, then said they aren’t worth a guy who had one good season on a team with a surplus of outfielding talent. These aren’t trades set in stone just places we should start. I think as I stated above we keep Acosta and move the more expensive Soriano who is more proven, but can seem to do anything for us.

by someguy917 on Nov 23, 2008 1:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not sure where your getting the bunch of positives but let me clarify. If they have to many outfielders already there not going to want Diaz who would probably be the fifth guy in their outfield. The Cardinals are a contending team so they are going to want a more proven player than Prado. They have issues with their bullpen in the later innings with Isringhousen being inconsistent and Perez inexperienced. Acosta would not be a bad addition to that but he is not a proven closer. I do like the idea of Soriano being in the trade. The drawback on him is that he hasn’t proven that he can close for the full season. The issue that I’m having is that if they want a proven player at second in the trade then we would have to give up Johnson. They will also want bullpen help but then I think that both Johnson and Soriano is to much for Ludwick, which means they would have to put a another player into the deal. Then I had another idea what about a trade for Chris Duncan. He is only 27 and coming off a year in which he got only limited at bats. He would also cost a lot less. Before last season he had seasons of 21 and 22 homeruns and is a high on base guy, and given a full season of at-bats he should hit 30 home runs, while having an on base around .350. The only drawback is that his average would be around .270. I’m just not completely sold on Ludwick being able to produce another season like last. How many teams look to trade a guy who hit .299 with 37 homeruns and 113 rbi. It just looks funny to me.

by jack dein on Nov 23, 2008 2:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m glad you mentioned Duncan. When Ludwick’s name came up, I immediately thought I’d rather pick up Chris Duncan. He’s a couple years younger and more likely to rebound/sustain his previous performance. The difference is that Duncan is a lefty, and, unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to be what the Braves are looking for.
Your points about this proposed trade are great too. Why would the Cardinals want those players?

by cbwilk on Nov 23, 2008 2:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If this is the case...

Then the Cards are way overvaluing a player who has proven nothing. We need a player that can hit close to 40 home runs, and create a threat in our lineup that worries pitchers. Trading for Ludwick is a huge risk from our standpoint, because if he ends up being the 20-25 HR guy everyone else in the world expects him to be then he isn’t worth it. If Soriano, Diaz and Prado doesn’t get the deal done, with maybe a minor leaguer thrown in (not one of the big 5). Then this deal is not worth it. If we were looking to replace Jeff Franceour, his value would rise, but we already have a team chock full of 20-25 HR hitters, that no one fears at the plate. An alternative like Duncan would be nice, but does he have the power we are looking for? As I’ve gathered more information about him, I don’t like the idea of bringing Ludwick here at all. He will end up disappointing. Whereas a player like Adam Dunn creates a constant threat in the line up because you know he is going to hit 40 HR. I know he is a lefty, that he costs a lot, and that the gets a lot of SO, but I think the strike outs can make him a little more dangerous, pitchers will try to pitch to him in situations where they shouldn’t. But I digress. If these three and a little extra can’t get the job done, then no dice, we can keep ’em.

by someguy917 on Nov 23, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no chance that would get it done.

by SayHeyWerd on Nov 23, 2008 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

^----

3 expendable players for 3 years or so of a good hitter won’t work

by VictorW on Nov 23, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

major LOL at all of you taking me seriously. everyone fails.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Nov 23, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just A Thought...

If we do send a Yunel-headlined package to SD for Peavy, then we should center a proposal for Ludwick around Soriano and a prospect (maybe Morton or Reyes, if necessary). They’re looking for bullpen help and rotation depth, so we might be able to swing that deal without including a middle infielder. Moving Soriano would free up cash to sign Furcal and make other necessary moves. Thoughts?

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 22, 2008 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nah

From their perspective, they’re not going to look at Ludwick’s value as selling at his highest possible point. They’re going to view the guy as one of the most productive offensive players in the NL last year… which according to his OPS, he was.

It’s going to take more than Soriano (a huge injury risk at this point considering nobody even knows what was wrong with him at this point) and a couple of 4A pitchers (thus far) to be able to aquire Ludwick.

This deal will absolutely have to require a player of KJ’s value or higher.

by get swoll yunel on Nov 22, 2008 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think they figured out his injury.. im not postiive but he had surgery on his shoulder and they fixed a nerve problem and removed bone spurs from his shoudler… hopefully that will fix his problems.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 22, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I read a bone spur was pressing on a nerve when he pitched. There was no structual damage and he should be fine. Anyone else Know any more?

by braves99 on Nov 23, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don’t know about selling low on Soriano, not sure we could get an appropriate return. Though his value (if healthy) is way above 6-mil. I would prefer to hang on to Gonzo if I had to pick one. I really like our bullpen next year, I’d like to see what it can do when healthy for a whole season. We’ll have three closers if Smoltz can come back.

by TradeAndruw on Nov 22, 2008 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Three-headed monster at closer

if they’re all healthy…

we said the same thing last year

by get swoll yunel on Nov 22, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As said, his stats are light out when he’s healthy. If we are not in the chase at the deadline, he would be a nice trading chip to a contender if Moylan returns and Gonzo stays healthy. The Rays would like a younger closer and might be willing to deal young arms.

by braves99 on Nov 23, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Our luck can’t be that bad again. Don’t forget about Moylan/Boyer/Acosta, not too bad for your second tier. Please resign Ohman.

by TradeAndruw on Nov 22, 2008 11:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

/agree

by someguy917 on Nov 23, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

forget Ludwick

There’s a ticking clock on Furcal, which will incent us to deal Escobar for Peavy (maybe by adding someone like Redmond/James who would be best in flyball friendly Petco). Sinice we’re not dealing both Yunel and KJ, we’ll have to forget Ludwick.

With Peavy all we’ll need to add in pitching is a lefty (Hampton &/or Randy Johnson) and a short-timer (Paul Byrd?). There are many free agent LF choices, all flawed, but hey all we need is someone to prop up the middle of the order untl Jason Heyward is ready.

by JimK on Nov 23, 2008 1:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tgthree

Not an endorsement, but a thought on the matter: When Chipper goes down (which experience almost assures us will happen), other than McCann who provides power? Now maybe KJ ends up hitting more homeruns than Ludwick next year. KJ is young, improving and might find a homerun stroke. But based on his work up to this point he hasn’t been a homerun RBI guy. I don’t think the Braves can win without a few more three run homeruns. So, who is the most logical guy to move in order to acquire that guy via trade?

by niekromurphy on Nov 24, 2008 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just so you know, this is a response both to the comment above and below. You should know that I’m fine with trading KJ or Escobar (preferably Escobar), but I just wouldn’t move KJ for Ryan Ludwick. I don’t think Ludwick will really be a power source when Chipper is down, because I see him as more of a 25-30 homer guy than a 37-homer guy. I think there are plenty of 25-HR guys we could get without giving up Johnson or Escobar, like Milton Bradley or Nick Swisher or Juan Rivera (just to name a few off the top of my head…don’t come after me about the specific ones). That’s my whole problem here…it’s not that I’m overly protective of our middle infielders; quite the contrary (really I’d like to see Escobar gone and Peavy in Atlanta, but that’s beside the point). I just don’t think Ludwick is a worthy return.

Beyond that, I just don’t think you need power to win baseball games. I can see a Swisher/Rivera/Schafer/Francoeur/Blanco outfield that costs you about $14 million total. Put that together, and you’ve got five guys that should post OBPs over .360 (Kotchman, Swisher, McCann, Johnson, Chipper), and five guys that could easily hit 20+ homers (Johnson, Swisher, Rivera, McCann, Jones). Between Schafer and Francoeur filling the third outfield spot, you should be able to add a sixth to that 20-homer group as well. With that kind of on-base skills in the lineup, having balanced power instead of concentrated thunder will work just fine, at least in my view. But that’s excessively speculative…there are so many things up in the air right now that we need to get some certainty somewhere (jn the rotation, outfield, bullpen) before we can start seeing how the team falls together.

by tgthree on Nov 24, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Further elaboration

KJ reminds me of Kotchman as a hitter. Kotchman is a better glove man, but not as desireable to other teams because of his position. Prado, Lillibridge, Infante give possible internal replacement options at 2nd. IMO only Lillibridge could (of those guys) could handle the defense of SS, and his offense is suspect. Nobody wants our outfielders. Chipper and McCann are not going anywhere. Who else is a legitimate trade bait guy from our starters (Again, somebody else wants them and we could stand to get rid of them). Leaves KJ or Escobar.

by niekromurphy on Nov 24, 2008 4:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Winning without power

I like the way you value players. Milton Bradley could very well have a season as good or better than Ludwick next year. He could be had without giving up talent.

As for the winning without power bit, I’m going to continue it with a separate post

by niekromurphy on Nov 24, 2008 9:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs