Tazawa pitches complete game shut out

Frank Wren has said that the Japanese industrial leagues equate somewhere just harder than U.S. college baseball. Even if we say that Tazawa’s league is just equal to American college baseball, it’s not hard to see a guy with Tazawa’s numbers being a high-first-round pick.

Rumor has it that the Braves’ offer includes a $4-5 million signing bonus with low annual salaries, plus a 40-man roster spot. All in, that’s not a whole lot for a first-round talent, even if the bonus does have to get bumped up closer to $7 million.

On a more pessimistic note, Mike Plugh, who covers Japan for Baseball Prospectus, doesn’t see what all the fuss is about over Tazawa. I won’t quote the whole thing, since it’s subscription, but a couple of tidbits stand out:

“Tazawa’s importance has far less to do with his actual ability than with his path to the United States….He is a serviceable pitcher with a fair bit of upside; he has decent stuff. But if there’s one thing that I’ve learned a little something about concerning Japanese players in my years following the game here, it’s this: unless the player in question is one of his generation’s great performers, it’s unlikely that he’ll make it in the major leagues….Tazawa has done nothing to remotely put himself in even this latter class, but he’s nevertheless seeking a guaranteed deal with your club. I’m glad it’s not my money.”

Interesting perspective from a guy who covers Japanese baseball for at least a part-time living. It wouldn’t surprise me if all the hype was overblown, since there are reports of Tazawa throwing as high as 97 MPH, when in fact, he tops out at about 150 km/hr (about 93 MPH). Either way, I’m still convinced he’s worth a $7 million bonus, if only because the Braves must see something in him to be as aggressive as they have been, and their scouting record has a pretty damn good history.

The key to evaluating players in overseas league is that almost all of them do not have the ability to progress further beyond the league they’re in. In the Cuban League, laws prevent them from defecting, in NPB, the nine years of exclusive control keeps them in Japan, etc. This means that the best players will continue to stay in a lower league, much like back in the day good players used to be kept in the minors because the major league team that owned them didn’t have a spot in the majors for them and they couldn’t sign elsewhere. This results in a situation where the level of play is lower, but the talent is more spread out around the mean.

That’s why you have to take Japanese players with some caution. The studs will be studs anywhere, but the above-average players may only be part-time players or middle relievers in MLB.

I’d encourage everyone to temper their enthusiasm for Tazawa. If he’s dominating a low level league, he’s probably pretty good, but it takes college starters two years to transition from college to the majors. Don’t expect it will be any different for Tazawa.

I love the fact that Frank was agressive and wasted no time in offering Tazawa a contract. They say they offerred around 4-5 mil signing bonus which is low compared what these kids are signing now a days. I havent seened this kid pitch but I trust our scouts. Unfortuanly for the Braves everyone else in MLB knows who he is. You know Boston is going to get involved eventually, the Dodgers, Cubs and maybe even the Cardinals and Mets. So the Braves have some competition.

So it may come down to money. I know the Braves are the type of ball club who never over spends for players but if you are going to start throwing money around for starting pitching, I say we get this guy. It makes sense from a future stand point.

Boston reportedly has offered Tazawa a $6 million contract: http://www.npbtracker.com/2008/11/red-sox-offer-tazawa-6m/.

The Braves’ offer was reported to be worth $4-5 million. Tazawa is eligible to sign as early as tomorrow (November 24th), after the conclusion of his current tournament.