If you repeat it enough, it's got to be true

by gondeee on Nov 20, 2008 10:07 AM EST in Trade News Comment 24 comments

Everyone say it with me, the Cubs are players in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes, but the Braves are the only team that has the pieces to get the deal done. How many times have we heard this in the past couple of weeks? Another flight of fancy:

The Chicago Cubs will continue their efforts to obtain Jake Peavy from the San Diego Padres despite re-signing Ryan Dempster this week, according to a source close to the negotiations.

The only team known to be engaged with the Padres (the Atlanta Braves are expected to resume their pursuit) on Peavy, the Cubs are attempting to put Peavy alongside Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly and Dempster, easily the deepest rotation in the NL.

Still, as the Cubs’ payroll rose with the Dempster deal – four years, $52 million – there were questions about their continued desire for Peavy, who is owed at least $60 million over the next five years. Padres GM Kevin Towers has said the Cubs lack the parts to swing the trade for Peavy, meaning they’d have to involve at least one other team in the negotiations.

But, the Cubs are still in.

“They are still alive,” the source said.

At this point, I'm just going to keep chalking these reports up to the fact that baseball people seem to have nothing else to talk about. So we are meant to believe that the Cubs, who already have roughly a $120 million payroll, are going to add another $15MM per year to a team that's trying to get sold.

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Oh you'll be back.....

Then you’ll be begging me to take Hanson!

See, this is whats ridiculous. Over on mlbtraderumors, the latest Peavy update has the Cubs not seeking him anymore after the Dempster signing.

by 10-4 on Nov 20, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Braves Will Over Pay.

Sadly the Braves will over pay for Jake. The pieces are starting to fall with the high dollar teams grabing up the top tier free agent pitchers. C.C. will wind up with the Yankees and probably A.J. as well so we will be forced to over pay for Jake or wind up with a second tier starter for our ace. In my mind the second tier pitchers are no better than Jurgens and i feel like we would be better off commiting to the youth movement and moving ahead with jurgens as our ace. Towers knows this, so the price will not go down and the Braves will be forced to over pay. Right now it is sadly a sellers market.

by Fear The Turtle on Nov 20, 2008 10:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not true, for reasons you stated...

If anything the Braves are in the driver seat here. As you said, if they feel like they are going to be over paying for Peavy they can just refuse to do the deal and start the season with Hampton, Jurrjens, Campillo, Morton, and Hanson. They don’t want to do that but the option is there. On the other side the Padres HAVE to cut their payroll and almost have to trade Peavy to do so. That being the case they will take the best offer they can get. The offers for him aren’t going to go up for no reason. Honestly at this point I wouldn’t mind using our young pitchers to give them experience this year and shoot for a run at the World Series next year. Towers is an idiot and probably will lost a lot of his clout among his peers by screwing the pooch so badly on this.

by Fischerking on Nov 20, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I certainly hope not.

The Braves do not need Jake Peavy. He’d be nice to acquire, but the team does not need him. They’ll organize a lineup without him; sure it would likely be more effective with him in it, but the team will live and move on if he’s not.

Do the Padres need to trade Jake Peavy? Probably. He’s a financial ballast at this point, and causing payroll complications. He’d be nice to trade, thus absolving them of his salary, while potentially restocking their farm/getting cheaper players. They could keep him, but they’ll grumble and moan about his salary, and potentially complicate the Moores’ divorce, so retaining him is not looking that likely.

Or eventually, the team will be forced to trade him, because his salary is really complicating payroll projections. Where as when trade talks began, all deals started from the top, negotiating downward, but if the Padres hit the point where they must get rid of Peavy, all suitors will be starting from the bottom, and adding small pieces until they outbid their competitors. If we could fleece them into giving us Peavy for Lillibridge, Jo-Jo, Boyer and Brandon Jones, I’d be ecstatic. Who knows what’s going to happen in the coming days/weeks/months – it’s all a crap shoot, and I stand by that statement, if anything at all.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Nov 20, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Price for Peavy will go up

I think everyone that thinks that Towers is going to call us back up begging for us to get back involved is in for a surprise. As the Yank’s and Sox make big offers to the free agents out there, it becomes obvious that signing an ace in FA will be extremely tough. Plus we don’t want to sign Burnett to a five year contract anyway, do we? I think Wren is absolutely set on finding an ace this offseason to try to make us competitive next season. If Wren is really prepared to start the season with Hampton (not a lock that we will sign him, but we’ll assume), Jurrjens, Campillo, Morton, and Hanson then we do have leverage in the Peavy negotiations. I would definitely be fine with that. I just think Wren is set on getting an ace this offseason.

by garriscp on Nov 20, 2008 11:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Please tell me

You guys just threw those out in some totally random order because if Hampton is actually being talked about as our #1, well, nuff said.

by WienerDog on Nov 20, 2008 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Where Else Can Towers Go?

The Yanks haven’t even been involved, but they certainly won’t jump in after signing Sabathia (6/$140M) and Burnett (5/$80M) now that Mussina has retired. The Angels will then have the inside track for Teixeira (7/$140M) and the Dodgers will focus on Manny (4/$90M). The Cubs are already off the list by signing Dempster (4/$52M). Seriously, where else can he go? And people seem to continue to ignore Ben Sheets…

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 20, 2008 11:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’ve been surprised that there haven’t been more talks between the Padres and the Brewers. Milwaukee needs another SP, with both Sheets and Sabathia leaving. They’ve also got a lot of good pieces to offer, both in terms of current talent in the major leagues, as well as prospects in the minors.

by drdonkeypunch on Nov 20, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t believe Peavy would approve a trade to the Brewers.

by dwbrave on Nov 20, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Hope You Guys Are Right

If we go into next year with the rotation mentioned above I am afraid it will be a long year. The Braves need a top of the rotation guy and Peavy is it, they can do no better in the free agent market so suck it up and make the deal.

by Fear The Turtle on Nov 20, 2008 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’ve changed my mind on this whole thing. Originally, I thought the Braves had all the leverage and that Towers will come crawling back…but I keep reading reports that more teams are getting involved and that Peavy would be open to being traded to teams not on his original five-team list. I think the Braves need to get Peavy, badly.

As much as I would hate losing Yunel, I don’t consider him irreplaceable. If we can get Peavy without giving up any of our top 5 prospects (Heyward, Hanson, Schafer, Flowers, Freeman), I would say that’s a HUGE win for us. Even if it means giving up our starting SS.

by coldriver10 on Nov 20, 2008 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

I’d rather have all five of those guys and lose Escobar, than only have 2 or 3 of them. I think Escobar has ruffled the wrong feathers (no evidence, just the fact that they are looking to trade him with no option to replace him). I’m not sure he’s going to stay even if we don’t get Peavy.

by someguy917 on Nov 20, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s the way I feel, he seems to rub people the wrong way. I think even if he’s not moved for Peavy, he will still get moved.

by DMac142005 on Nov 20, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, he is my favorite player on the Braves, and if they are going to move him, I want something good in return, so at least make it Peavy, but without the big 5 prospects included.

by someguy917 on Nov 20, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why are we even buying?? I don't want to be the Orioles for the next decade!!!

here is a question that not enough braves fans are asking: Why are we even buying now? Take an honest look at our lineup (without those rose colored glasses) and tell me that, even with Peavey, we are better than the phillies or even the mets. The smart play here is to hold on to the prospects, start the season with what we have and at the deadline, when we are 15 games out, trade chipper and smoltz and the majority of your bullpen for more prospects. Come 2011 McCann, Frenchy, Escobar and Kotchman are still in their prime and our prospects are ready to shine…we become the new devil rays but, even better, we will have money to add a FA or two to go with our young studs and dominate for the following 5 years.

mark my words, giving away youth for Peavey (a huge injury risk in the next couple of years) and throwing money at Oliver Perez simply because we have it will set us back a decade…resist the urge to become the Baltimore Orioles…accept that we are not a top team at the moment and rebuild now!!!

by realist#49 on Nov 20, 2008 12:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Chipper and Smoltz will be career Braves

Unless they indicate that they are willing to go elsewhere for the benefit of the team. But I think there is a good chance that one or both will be on the coaching staff once their careers are over.

by someguy917 on Nov 20, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Utley

With Utley being out 4-6 months, we may be a little closer to contending.

by DMac142005 on Nov 20, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Braves aren’t any closer to competing. They won’t compete next year, or 2010 for that matter. It will take some time for their stud prospects to really start contributing, so I see 2011 as best case scenario. Next year should absolutely be considered a rebuilding year, focusing on the draft and player development.

by drdonkeypunch on Nov 20, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not true

Might be true, but there’s no reason to believe that. 2010 is the very farthest away I can see us being from competing. If Hanson wins a spot on the rotation, and does somewhere between as well as Jurrjens and Campillo, we will have a solid bottom of the rotation. And if we can get Peavy or Burnett or Sheets or pretty much anyone else as a stop gap for the top two spots, we will be fine, because we will have Hudson coming back. In 2010 that puts us at 1. ? 2.Hudson (depending on how well he recovers he may be number 1 3. Jurrjens 4. Hanson/Campillo 5. Hanson/Campillo. And we will still have probably two or three other AAA pitchers waiting in the wings to help out (Morton, James Reyes). So that takes care of our rotation. This year we were predicted to go to the playoffs for sure, and our offense will be roughly the same, no Teixeira, but we didn’t lose anything defensively. We will probably have an upgrade at Left, and Frenchy isn’t gonna suck this year, just believe. i don’t see us out for long, this year may have to be a sacrifice to make sure we keep our talent, but the future isn’t so bleak. Also the bullpen will get a lot better too.

by someguy917 on Nov 20, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn’t you post this exact same block of text in two different threads?

by VegasAces on Nov 20, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This isnt’ a rash decision and I think you are looking at as though Jake will be here for i believe 5 years so that will put him at 2013 and that is def worth Yunel cause he has to have pissed off BC the way his playing time went at the end of the year. So i don’t see how we would be like the O’s in this scenario. Especially when don’t trade the top 6 prospects in the system. It doesn’t matter to me if we get him but it’s not like it’s a bad decision either way.

by H0SS on Nov 22, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think he experienced diminished playing time at the end because it was the most games he’d ever played, he had a bum shoulder and there was no reason to play him seeing as we were out of ocntention, and it gave us a chance to see what other players can do.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 23, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not Happening

I don’t see the Braves landing Peavy. According to Krasovik at the San Diego Times, Peavy has told some of his team mates that if traded he wants to be traded to the Cubs. Which is why I think we are still hearing about them being in the mix. Also, he is now considering the NL West excepting only the Colorado Rockies. If these reports are correct, the he does not want to pitch for the Braves regardless of listing us as one of his primary choices. This whole thing reeks, it makes Towers look like a bumbling idiot, and Peavy a petulant spoiled a hole. 09 is lost anyway, we should keep Escobar and focus on 2010 and hope that Hanson, Heyward, Schafer et all are ready to be contributors.

by tennesseejed1 on Nov 20, 2008 12:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think we are at a stalemate, and both sides are saying it will look desperate if I initiate, so nothing is gonna happen. I think we should do it, cause we need it, but we can’t give up the 5 good prospects. Eventually, either one side will initiate or some other team is gonna come out of the blue and snag him.

by someguy917 on Nov 20, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs