What about Roy Halladay?

by rtdavis12 on Nov 19, 2008 7:54 PM EST Comment 13 comments

According to MLBTR.com the Blue Jays could possibly be shopping ace pitcher Roy Halladay. The Dodgers are said to be the team interested in him. What are the chances of the Braves backing off Peavy and trying to move in on Halladay, who has two years left on his contract. Halladay is less of a health risk, and in my opinion a better pitcher than Peavy. I also think we can get away with trading Escobar to get him, which I'm not really opposed to trading Escobar.

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This Halladay stufff seems like nonsense created by writers and bloggers to give them something to talk about. It just appeared out of the blue in the last day. I just seems like somebody got bored with all the other rumors and created this one.

by cbwilk on Nov 19, 2008 8:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 20, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Love Him.

I doubt he’s actually available, but I absolutely love him as a pitcher. If this pans out, I’ll get more into it; but right now, I’m not buying the rumor.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 19, 2008 8:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I totally agree, he’s a great pitcher. And on top of that he’s a great guy, but yeah, until this is more substantial, it’s not worth it.

by cbwilk on Nov 19, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think there's any doubt

that he’s a better pitcher than peavy. you know, the whole dominating in the AL’s tougest division thing?

i think what most people here object to is trade away prospects and younger players for a guy that will be past his prime by the time the braves are ready to make a run. and this is no different.

by son.of.sourman on Nov 19, 2008 8:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much

If the Padres want Escobar/JoJo/Gorkys/Locke for Peavy, the Jays will be asking for Escobar/Hanson/Heyward/Teheran!

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know that I buy that

I think Halladay is clearly the better pitcher, but that fact that he is older and only under contract for 2 years would lead me to believe he would be slightly cheaper than Peavy.

by scstrato on Nov 19, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't see that

I would think Toronto would ask for just a little more. But then again, I have no “sources” on this…

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 20, 2008 8:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cheaper for sure

If indeed they are shopping Halladay, there is no way they will be able to get more than the Padres get for Peavy. 2 years vs 5 years is a huge difference.

by KC Ryan on Nov 20, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably cost the same or Halladay would cost more.

I’m not exactly sure about the numbers, but I think Halladay will cost more. I initially thought Peavy would cost as much as Haren or Bedard, but that’s just not the case. Haren and Bedard had 2 year contract situations that put them significantly below market value for an ace. Haren was like 11M for 2 years and Bedard was in arb. Peavy’s contract is much closer to market value than people think, especially if the $22M option becomes guaranteed, making the deal $82M over 5 years. A little over $16M a year. Basically, you’re trading for the surplus value of the contact. If we assume Peavy is a $20M a year pitcher, then that’s $4M in surplus over 5 years so he’s signed for $20M below market value. If we assume Halladay is a $25M a year pitcher, he’s signed for about $15M per year for 2 years so that’s also $20M in surplus value.

So they look roughly the same, but the dollar values of the pitchers I just estimated based on what I’ve been hearing. Keep in mind that Peavy has a no trade clause that limits the number of buyers, driving his value further down. Halladay doesn’t have one so there would be more buyers to drive the price up.

Johan Santana is another good example. The no trade clause plus the demand for a record-breaking extension is why only 3 teams went after Johan and why he fetched so much less than 2 years of Bedard or Haren, despite guaranteeing 6 years of Johan from the forced extension.

by VictorW on Nov 20, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It would make a hell of a lot of sense. Halladay is a stud, but he’s going to begin his decline at 32 and the ~$30 million he’s owed the next two years can be better spent rebuilding the farm system and preparing for a long run of contending. The Jays are just in a terrible position; on one hand most of their core players are leaving after 2010 (Rolen, Ryan, Halladay, Overbay, Downs) which would lead one to go all in the next two years in an attempt to contend. I mean, the Jays have blown having one of the best pitchers of the 2000s and have no playoff appearances to show for it. On the other hand, there are two of the three best teams in baseball blocking them making the playoffs and a third that is better set-up to finish third.

Shopping Halladay only makes sense as part of a concerted rebuilding effort – one that turns Overbay, Ryan, Halladay, and Downs into players who can make an impact on future Blue Jays teams. Those are players they kind of lack.

They’re kind of hamstrung in that their most expensive players (Wells) just posted a terrible defensive year and isn’t that good with the bat. He was throughly average and at 29 he doesn’t project to be much better despite being owed $107 million through 2014. The best case scenario is he can remain average at age 35, the worst is that he’s a poor corner outfielder.

Rios is a stud, a consistent above-average hitter and stud defender who should be worth 2.5-3.5 wins above average throughout his contract which ends in 2014. The presence of Rios and his aging curve suggests that the Blue Jays should attempt to contend in the 2012-2014 window.

Adam Lind is good as in he’s an average corner outfielder (throughly average in fact) and you don’t have to take him to arbitration for two more years. It’s not hard to imagine him being a starter on a 2012 Blue Jays playoff team. Travis Snider is by all accounts a future stud. He’s locked up throughout that 2014 and should be a big-time run producer. They have prospects at C and 1B who are close to being major league ready and higher ceiling guys further down the system. Adding to such depth by spending heavily in the draft and international market and by flipping your aging core for prospects will give you a championship caliber lineup by 2012. Holding your chips through 2010 won’t and the rebuilding phase that’s going to need to come sometime soon will be delayed several years.

The Jays have plenty of young pitching, some injured, to build around. Marcum and McGowan are controlled for four seasons, Litsch for five, and they have more (Cecil, Romero, Mills) coming. That’s a solid group to build around for now and if you build up the farm system and use cheaper players now, you’ll have the prospects and money available to land a top-tier starter when you’re ready to contend.

For his salaries and with his expected production (~3 wins above average, ~5 above replacement) he’s certainly worth it. The cost in prospects shouldn’t be terribly high considering you’re only controlling him for two years, he’s past his prime, and he’s getting paid a lot. I wouldn’t want the Braves to pick him up because he’s not controlled very long, but any contender should be in on him. I’d look for good middle infielders (Milwaukee).

by 17843 on Nov 19, 2008 11:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs