A Warning to the Braves if no Deal is Made

by gondeee on Nov 19, 2008 2:40 PM EST in Trade News Comment 48 comments

I still don't buy that one pitcher's signing (Ryan Dempster) alters the Atlanta Braves course away from free agent pitchers and back towards Jake Peavy. Some people are acting as though he is our only option this winter. But while the money clouds of the Yankees are closing in on others, no one really knows who will be the ultimate winners in this market.

ESPN's Buster Olney, former Mets and Yankees beat writer, is urging the Braves to move back towards Peavy and finalize a deal, or else risk losing out on Peavy all together:

And the signing of Ryan Dempster is just the latest indication that the Braves are vulnerable to becoming the team left standing when the game of free-agent musical chairs stops. CC Sabathia is headed to the Yankees or to a California team, in all likelihood; big-money teams are bidding on A.J. Burnett; and Derek Lowe's agent is asking teams for five years, and the Yankees likely will be one of the contenders for his services. [...]

So the Braves' best shot at a free agent might be with Oliver Perez -- and with all due respect to the talented but erratic lefty, he is not the kind of consistent impact pitcher that Atlanta wants or needs. And as the free agents come off the board, and the Braves remain empty-handed, the leverage of San Diego GM Kevin Towers will rise -- not significantly, but incrementally. [...]

The Padres don't appear to have any other serious suitors for Peavy, but history tells us that circumstances can change rapidly. A player for another team can get injured in an off-field accident, setting off an unexpected chain reaction: Aaron Boone got hurt playing basketball, the Yankees voided his contract and swooped in and made a deal for Alex Rodriguez after weeks of negotiations between the Red Sox and the Rangers, at a time when Boston believed (rightly) that there were no other serious bidders for A-Rod. Stuff happens.

Olney has his moments, and nothing scares Braves fans worse than Oliver Perez (except maybe one of the Boone brothers). While it seems a foregone conclusion that the Yankees will be big money players, the Braves have, at times, not shied away from spending money on a free agent they thought would make a difference. We all get wrapped up in the "hometown discount" mantra that is trotted out there everytime one of our guys is a free agent, and while that may have worked for some, that philosophy has failed to retain the majority of Braves free agents.

We once spent lavishly on the best starting pitcher on the market. The five-year $28 million deal with an average annual value of $5.6 million for Greg Maddux was a record when we signed him away from the Cubs in December of '92. This may be the time to spend lavishly again, even on par with the Yankees. (Or could that sentiment be a pipe dream, with the Braves preferring to pursue bargains instead of bonus babies.)

While I do think it's fun to talk about this stuff, sometimes ad nauseam, I just don't see that much change ocurring from one day to the next, even in this seemingly fluid market. Olney seems to be basing his need for speed on the Aaron Boone / Alex Rodriguez example from a few years ago, but that was a rare situation, and these trade talks are very different. I continue to applaud Frank Wren for not giving in to the Padres demands, and sticking to his espoused longterm philosophy of rebuilding again from within (while still trying to put a winning club on the field this year).

My opinion is that there's still plenty of time, and that most of these guys won't sign until after Thanksgiving or until the Winter Meetings.

It could certainly be an interesting time tomorrow when Frank Wren chats with Braves fans on the official team website (3pm).

0 recs | Comment 48 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

His refusal to cave on the Peavy situation gave me a little more confidence in Wren

so I really hope he doesn’t get nervous and do something regrettable. I don’t think he will, but it depends on how desperate he feels the need is to field a contender in 2009.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Like Ollie Perez?

I have a feeling his contract will go down as Barry Zito-like.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 19, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I still hope we get Peavy, and I don’t think Furcal should replace Escobar. Renteria played great for us, and while he had a down year in Detroit, he’s always played a lot better in the NL. I think he would be a cheap, decent one year stop-gap. I also wouldn’t be opposed to giving Bobby Crosby a shot if we could get him cheap (though he is more expensive).

by coldriver10 on Nov 19, 2008 2:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A couple of questions

One, I ask because I honestly have real idea. The second, is more debating opinions.

1. What happens to the money if the Braves are unable to sign any of the free agents they want?

I know, it’s unlikely, but this is just a “what if” question. For example, all the FA pitchers are signed by other teams, and we’re left with roughly $40 million that was mostly supposed to go towards free agents, but didn’t spend a dime of it. Does the organization pipeline all that money into resources like amateur free agents, or offer lucrative packages to draft picks to get them to sign without question? Like a corporation with a carefully planned budget, is the team penalized to the tune of a wrist-slap and cut-funds the following year, due to their inability to spend their proposed budget? Or does Liberty Media in the end salivate at the thought of unused funds that are now essentially bonus profits/surplus?

Apologies if any of these sound silly, but I’m just not attuned to the deeper business aspects of running a major league baseball squad, and would rather attempt to get a better understanding and some real answers.

2. How much do you think the World Baseball Classic is going to influence the players market?

I’m a little curious to whom will be playing for Team USA, and for the most part, nobody seems to know who’s playing for their countries or not. Nobody seems to be a given, and there’s always the fear of WBC hangovers and injuries. I would love to see guys like Halladay, Lincecum, Webb, and the guy in point, CC Sabathia. But would CC’s participation jeopardize him on the free-agent market, or vice-versa, say he signs with the Yankees, be barred from representing his country? What if Francisco Rodriguez goes to pitch for Venezuela? Manny get his thumb out of his ass and slug for the Dominican Republic?

Anyone think that the WBC might effect the free-agent class?

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Nov 19, 2008 3:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

All I know is, that if finances preventing us from targeting certain players in the draft I’m going to be distraught. We have plenty of money to make sure that this #1 pick, the best we’ve had in well over a decade, should have no limitations on it.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 19, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As to #2

I doubt it. It doesn’t really make sense. Anyways, I’m sure that if a contract is signed with a player who is participating in the WBC, there’s a clause in there that allows the team to avoid having to pay millions to someone who will spend all his time next year in rehab.

As for #1, I’m not exactly sure. I’m sure the Braves could invest it into their international system, perhaps store some of it for next year, etc. It shouldn’t disappear.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If we don't get our guy we move on

Wren has seemilngly played his hand admirably while Towers is quickly becoming a joke with the way he has screwed the pooch here. It may still go down…who knows.

I just think that if we don’t get any big name FA starters and we go into next year with Jurrjens, Campillo, Hanson, Hampton, Morton would that be the end of the world? The end of the 2009 season maybe but there is a silver lining in Atlanta no matter how this plays out and that is that we have some excellent looking prospects that are on the cusp of making it to the Big Leagues. Hanson, Heyward, Freeman, Schafer could all be playing within a year or two. Then prospects like Flowers, and Gorkys are possible pieces that we may trade for other players. The fact is the Braves are looking good on the farm. When they are ready we will have a cost effective team that is young and talented.

by Fischerking on Nov 19, 2008 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree with this sentiment

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Braves have ALL the leverage

Bottome Line: the Padres HAVE TO unload Peavy’s contract, the Braves DO NOT have to make a trade. The Braves can walk away, the Padres can’t.

by buzzdeadwax on Nov 19, 2008 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

greg maddux, really?

you are trotting out the 1992 signing of maddux as evidence for the braves’ free wheelin’ ways? really?

seriously though, as a braves fan, i’d almost rather they trot out a weaker rotation this year. i see it as a rebuilding year anyway, so might as well let the young guys get some extra PT, and probably get set up for another high draft pick.

by son.of.sourman on Nov 19, 2008 3:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I’m not terribly worried about 2009 – it will be a playoff without the Braves regardless of what we do. We’re just not in a position to contend without an upgrade in the outfield and the rotation, as a completely healthy and effective season from Gonzalez, Soriano, and whoever else is in the pen. Frank Wren would have to be in good with the devil to get us back to postseason ball next season.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets?!

Did Ben Sheets die or something, cause no one seems to ever mention him. When Sabathia (6/$140M) and Burnett (5/$80M) sign with the Yanks, we’ll have to turn to Sheets and Lowe to fill out our rotation. I’d love to sign Sheets and then leverage Lowe and Peavy against each other to get the best deal out of the two.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 19, 2008 4:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not opposed to picking up Sheets if the price is right

but I doubt it will be. If Burnett gets 5/80, Sheets will probably want a 3-4 year deal, and that’s not something I’m comfortable with.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Am.

3/$45M for Sheets in a market where Burnett (basically his equal) gets 5/$80M is a no brainer.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 19, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

both healthy and Burnett is not even close to as good as Sheets.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 19, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what evidence do u have that Burnett is not as good as Sheets?

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 19, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My Opinion.

I wouldn’t go as far as the other guy did (that A.J. isn’t even close) but Sheets compares favorably to Burnett as far as stats are concerned. In my book, they’re relative equals and Ben will certainly have the friendlier contract. Look at their 2006-2007 splits if you don’t believe me.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 19, 2008 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boras

Boras is Lowe’s agent and is looking for more than Burnette a year and at least 5 years.

by mauck98 on Nov 19, 2008 4:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Boras threw out Barry Zito contract for Lowe.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 19, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a steal if we get Ben Sheets who can actually start 25 games

But the fact that he’s already rehabbing isn’t a good sign that we would get that.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Another inspired idea

Dontrelle Willis

by TradeAndruw on Nov 19, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

/banned

by gondeee on Nov 19, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

/clap

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 19, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't be hasty, lads

I talked to dontrelle’s mom this week and she says he’s feeling great!

"...in baseball you wear a cap." -- george carlin

by Hot Cup Joe on Nov 19, 2008 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That almost sounds like my drunken endorsement of Adam Everett

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Look I enjoy blaming alcohol for my problems as much as the next guy, but seriously…

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 19, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haha...

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think this idea was inspired by crystal meth

Thank you, folks! I’ll be here all week. But seriously, Willis is not what the Braves need. He’s expensive and he’s a major project. At this point, Willis is behind Jo Jo, Morton, and Parr in the dependability department.

by buzzdeadwax on Nov 19, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Off Topic

Mussina retired. Is he HOF material? I say no.

by TradeAndruw on Nov 19, 2008 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Roughly 3500 and change innings pitched, 270 wins, 2813/785 K/BB, 3.68 ERA compared to a 4.51 league average over his career

I say he’s in.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He has a good nickname too

by someguy917 on Nov 19, 2008 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt it, Moose-wise

Don Sutton just barely nipped in and he had 300 wins. Mussina has been a very good pitcher for many years, but never a dominant name. If he had made it to 300, he’d have a good chance, but he didn’t get there.

Smoltz will have nearly as many wins and he spent several years as a dominant closer.

by Mekons5 on Nov 19, 2008 7:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sutton’s biggest knock was that he played 23 seasons (which is ridiculous, but that’s another topic) Moose only played 18. In fact, if you break it down by year, Moose won more on average (15 wins per season opposed to Sutton’s 14). I’d say he’s as good a bet as anybody.

by cbwilk on Nov 19, 2008 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i dont think u can compare Sutton’s 300 to the moose’s 270… Its conceivable with the state of the game that 270 wins isnt achieved again (except those that are already close). 20 wins is not as common as it used to be (except for this year). Pitchers dont pitch as far into games and that invariably takes wins away from the starter.

I have a problem with the Hall as a whole.. there should be tiers within the hall because currently we have Pee Wee Reese on the same level of Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth. IMHO the Hall should be reserved for the best of the best of the best (Aaron, Ruth, Spahn, Mays. etc) not guys like Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, or whomever (no disrespect to these players they were good great maybe but not on the same level as those i mentioned earlier).

But that is a completely different argument i think Mussina is a shoe in to the Hall of Fame as it stands now. For two reasons he pitched for contenders for much of his career, and he pitched for the Yankees. If you pitch for the Yankees you have a much better chance of getting into the Hall. His numbers are better than many of his generation and he was very consistent.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 19, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, because david cone and doc gooden are hall of famers.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Nov 19, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"there should be tiers within the hall because currently we have Pee Wee Reese on the same level of Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth. "

I really disagree with that… you’re either in the Hall of Fame, or your not, and that’s how it should be. People can debate all they want about the greatest of all time – that’s good fun. But I’d hate to have debates over whether a guy deserves “level 1” or “level 2” HOF inclusion.

by MikeinAtlanta on Nov 19, 2008 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well ideally there would be one tier Hall of Famer, with one group deciding who gets in… but unfortunately there are tons of players who were very good in their own right but dont stand out as HAll of Famers to me

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 19, 2008 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

which is why they’re not in the hall of fame.

LAWL ITS NOT CALLED THE HALL OF VERY GOOD, AMIRITE!?

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Nov 22, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s not the 300 win plateau (which I don’t want to be used against Smoltz when the time comes). Smoltzie had the postseason domination (not Mussina’s fault that he played for the crappy Orioles), and he is the only person I know of to be a dominant starter/reliever/and back to starter. And he is universally respected as one of the fiercest competitors ever to play. Moose was good for a long time, but rarely great. For that type of pitcher, 300 becomes much more important.

by TradeAndruw on Nov 19, 2008 9:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tell me that Mussina wasn't great in...

1992, 1995, 1997-2001, 2003, and 2008. Seriously. At the height of the power boom and pitching in a hitter’s park in the AL East has a tendency to make a guy look a little worse than he really is. He’s only had an ERA above league average three times in 18 years, all three of them coming at the end of his career. His career K/BB ratio is 3.58 to 1, better than Smoltz or Glavine. Hell, I’d make the case that Mussina was a better pitcher than Glavine. I know it’s not a recipe for popularity on a Braves website, but there’s only a .14 point difference in their career ERA and it would be hard to say that Glavine had a tougher environment to pitch in than Mussina.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 19, 2008 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is actually a pretty interesting debate

My initial reaction as a Braves fan and someone who grew up watching Tommy pitch was that he clearly had to have been better than Moose, but the stats are actually very close over the prime of their careers. I agree with the guy who said the AL East in the 90’s wasn’t the juggernaut it is today, but the fact remains that pitching in the AL with the DH is a harder task than pitching exclusively in the NL.

Tommy’s run with us from ’89 until he left for the Mets after the ’02 season is just sick though (esp. ’91 through ’98). That stretch, for me, eclipses anything Moose was able to consistently sustain.

And I forgot how fucking healthy Tom was… unreal!

by get swoll yunel on Nov 20, 2008 2:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The AL East of the '90s was not the juggernaut it is today

Cy Youngs for Glavine: 2
Cy Youngs for Mussina: 0

I admit that CYAs are a somewhat arbitrary metric. Moose just doesn’t pass the smell test with me (a much more scientific metric). I’ve been having this argument with my friend in B-more all day.

by TradeAndruw on Nov 19, 2008 10:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No, but it's a DH league, and he pitched half his games in a hitter's park

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 20, 2008 8:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why are we even buying??

here is a question that not enough braves fans are asking: Why are we even buying now? Take an honest look at our lineup (without those rose colored glasses) and tell me that, even with peavey, we are better than the phillies or even the mets. The smart play here is to hold on to the prospects, start the season with what we have and at the deadline, when we are 15 games out, trade chipper and smoltz and the majority of your bullpen for more prospects. Come 2011 McCann, Frenchy, Escobar and Kotchman are still in their prime and our prospects are ready to shine…we are the new devil rays but, even better, we will have money to add a FA or two to go with our young studs and dominate for the following 5 years.

mark my words, giving away youth for Peavey (a huge injury risk in the next couple of years) and throwing money at Oliver Perez simply because we have it will set us back a decade…resist the urge to become the Baltimore orioles…accept that we are not a top team at the moment and rebuild now!!!

by realist#49 on Nov 20, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I will always say we are better than the Mets....

even if we’re not.

by sddbaker on Nov 22, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why? Because we aren't the A's

We’re the Braves we win every year. That is the expectation that is the goal. You do bid for Perez because he is under thirty and you add him to that core that will be supplemented by the prospect in 2011.

by rocket8188 on Nov 22, 2008 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Perez

At the right price is a good pick up. He’s young, dependable, and not a health issue. If we could just convince Boras that Perez is not the modern day Koufax then we should sign him. At this moment we don’t have a lefty in the rotation. Maybe we sign Hampton back but he’s not a long term guy. If the Braves Sign Sheets and Perez with reasonable contracts then Wren has done a good job.

by Charmin519 on Nov 24, 2008 12:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Puhleezz Stop with the Perez bandwagon

If Wren signs Perez to ANY contract the majority of this community would laugh him out of office. I can understand the argument for Sheets, but Perez is NOT a good pitcher. Not by ANY means.

by scstrato on Nov 24, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs