My Offseason Plan.
by ejruiz on Nov 16, 2008 11:06 PM EST
38 comments
Tis' the season to rosterbate, I suppose. This is the offseason we've all been waiting for as Braves fans. Finally, we have the money to sign elite free agents, the prospects to trade for quality players and the foundation for a promising future. This is a critical time for our franchise and a defining moment for General Manager Frank Wren's tenure in Atlanta. I do not envy his task, but I can't help but try my hand at his job.
I'm a firm believer in the Moneyball tenant that says "you can recover from the guy you don't sign, you might not recover from the guy you sign at the wrong price". We should make strong offers for free agents and trade targets, but we should stick to our guns (see: Peavy, Jake) and be able to move on without looking back. There are worse things than our status quo because, at worst, we're building toward the 2011 season. I guess a more concrete way of looking at things is this: if you miss out on the top starters and outfield, then stand pat and don't pay for Garland and Ibanez types.
If I stipulate contract parameters, consider them soft maximums for those players. If I list mutiple options, they are in order of my preference. This is not what I expect Atlanta will do, but rather what I would do if I was at the helm of the franchise. This is not an exactly complete list, but it's the broad strokes of the bigger picture for me. I believe this team can compete in 2009, but it's not worth it if we jeopardize our ability to do so in 2010 and beyond. I think this is the best we can do, but I'm open to suggestions.
1) Sign Junichi Tawaza. This 18-year-old pitcher has received high praise from some scouts and his situation is unique. Previous Japanese imports have been older and come with the added cost of a posting fee to obtain esclusive rights, but Tawaza is making the leap across the Pacific without yet having played professionally in Japan. He'll require a sizeable Major League contract and some seasoning in the minors, but he's likely worth the cost and the wait. More importantly, this signals an increased effort in the Asian markets by our Braves and a consistent focus on the near future.
2) Sign either Ben Sheets (2-3/$30-$40M) or A.J. Burnett (3-4/$45M-$56M). We need an ace and, outside of C.C. Sabathia, there aren't any available that don't come without some serious red flags. The Yankees have apparently set the bar for the hefty lefty at 6/$140M, so he's out of our range (and perhaps that of logic). Sheets and Burnett are remarkably similar, with A.J. having the higher ceiling but the bigger cost. Picking up either of these guys should help us shore up our rotation without clogging up our payroll for too long.
3) Sign either Ryan Dempster (3/$45M) or Derek Lowe (3/$42M). I view these two guys as potential #2 starters, but there are concerns. They're both older, while Dempster's resume is quite thin and Lowe's road stats with the Dodgers aren't all that encouraging. That said, they provided an added buffer between our younger, less proven starters and the pressures of heading a pitching staff.
*4) Trade for Ryan Ludwick or Rick Ankiel. St. Louis have determined that they have a logjam in the outfield and we certainly have a void. The popular picks to head the return are Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson, but I don't believe we should trade either (at least not unless we're receiving something elite back) and I doubt we can cover their loss appropriately. That said, why not offer Prado, Morton/Reyes and a non-untouchable top prospect or two (depending on who we get) to see if the Cardinals will bite. Neither guy is perfect - Ludwick is likely past his pure peak and Ankiel is a free agent-to-be - but they're certainly better than what we've got and cheaper than what we could sign.
5) Bring back some veterans. I'm all for giving cost-effective one year contracts to Hampton, Smoltz and perhaps even Glavine because they want to play for us and I believe they can still be effective. We should also offer Ohman a reasonable contract (2-3/$6-$9M) and maybe bring Norton back as well. These guys are more icing on the cake rather than pillars at this point, but they can help us compete or bring in some added depth for the farm system at the trade deadline if we don't.
* If a trade cannot be secured, then perhaps we should look to sign Bobby Abreu (3/$33M) or Juan Rivera (2/$20M). I just don't think we have the money to sign Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell AND adress our other needs.
EDIT: Any surplus funds should be expended in the Draft to secure the top talent available. I think we did a fine job drafting under Wren, but we can do better with we have more to spend.
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I like but I think the price tag for Burnett could go as high as $17-18 mil. I would not pay that much for him. I like the idea of signing Dempster at around $15 mil. per year, the only problem is that I have heard that he might require a 5 year contract. I really think that Sheets is the only legit ace behind C.C. Burnett could be but he has always been the number behind Beckett and Halladay. Looking back at the whole Peavy thing makes me a little glad that we didn’t get him. I hate to say it but I don’t think we’ll compete in 2009 and by 2010 Hanson, Shaffer, Freeman, and Flowers should all be ready and be good.
by jack dein on Nov 16, 2008 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Let Them Go Elsewhere.
Like I said, you put your best offer out there and if you’re outbid, you move on. If Burnett wants $17M-$18M per year and Dempster wants four (let alone five) years, they can get them elsewhere. They’re both redundant this offseason (Sheets and Lowe could serve the same roles for any team interested in the aforementioned two) so it’s not even that big of a deal.
As for the future, I think people are getting ahead of themselves. Hanson and Schaffer will both see time in the majors in 2009, but some of the guys in the low minors may not even get a September call-up in 2010. For me, 2011 is the year the full next wave sees the major and it’s why I don’t want to give anything beyond three years to free agents this offseason.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent plan
Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. I’m whole heartedly on board. Maybe now, after seeing a professional rosterbate, the Sonnanstine, Snell, E. Jackson backers will subside. Nah, wishful thinking.
All kidding aiside, this is a perfect plan in my eyes. Very well thought out and well written. Nice! Now hopefully FW is a reader of talkingchop, just cut, paste and print and his offseason plans are laid out for him.
by scstrato on Nov 16, 2008 11:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think E. Jackson is a bad option
But he’s not the “answer”. If he can be acquired on the cheap, he would provide depth for the rotation or bullpen.
by buzzdeadwax on Nov 16, 2008 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure.
The key being “on the cheap”, something that isn’t normally associated with the Rays franchise. I’m not high on him, but if they just want to get rid of him to make room for Price, he’d be a fine pick up.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m still more of the belief that if you’re going to deal with the Rays (and you’re right, they’re never cheap) then Jeff Niemann is the guy you should be going after. And, while you’re talking, tack a crack at picking up Reid Brignac.
But, this is pretty unlikely. Just saying, if you’re calling the Rays, these are guys to call about.
by cbwilk on Nov 17, 2008 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is my rosterbation fetish.
Great plan but in the wrong order.
This offseason should look like this.
1. Sign Tazawa
2. Sign a number one starter (Sheets, Burnett)
3a. Get Ludwick or Ankiel via trade (Only non impact guys and minor leaguers, Morton, Reyes, Blanco, Anderson, Diaz)
3b. Sign Milton Bradley cause you can’t find a trade. If you cant get him settle (Griffey, Ibanez)
4. Sign Greg Norton (NO ARGUMENTS)
5. Sign John Smoltz (Worst case scenario he can’t find his stuff and never makes it back and retires a lifelong Brave that everyone loves. Likely scenario, he comes back as a good setup man or possible closer. Good case scenario, he can manage to start 20 games this season. Best case scenario, Peavy who? and he can retire on his own terms.)
6. Look at what you have now, and see what you really need. You’ve got Sheets or Burnett, Jurrjens, Campillo (he’s a perfectly fine 4 or 5 starter), Hanson and Tazawa. Two guys who are new, and two who were rookies last year. But wait, you have Hudson coming back in August and Smoltz who could in theory start, two proven guys. That puts 7 decent pitchers on payroll (this doesnt even include Reyes, James, Morton, and Parr, who have proven they are capable of throwing a ball 18.39m). Do you really need another pitcher in a rebuilding year? If you are Frank Wren, and you decide to go for it at all costs then by all means get yourself Ryan Dempster or Derek Lowe. Go crazy, resign Glavine and Hampton. If the money is still there at this point, which it won’t be if 3b is exercised, then let’s try to win the division, but if its not there don’t trade our two good middle infielders for a quick fix. And don’t trade Chipper, unless he is 100% okay with it and agrees to come back and usurp Pendleton as the hitting coach. I should also point out now that I am predicting both Kotchman and Francoeur to have at worst good years, so if you trade them you will be sorry.
by someguy917 on Nov 17, 2008 12:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ummm...
Milton Bradley in the outfield makes me uncomfortable (though I love him as a hitter) and I’m worried about the cost of locking him up. Both Griffey Jr. and Ibanez underwhelm me. I also think you’re undervaluing both Cardinals OF as well. All in all, I think your plan leaves LF unadressed.
I’m with you on not trading guys who just had off-year’s because what’s the point of selling low. I don’t know about Francouer, but I expect big things from Kotchman, Kelly and Yunel, so I hope we don’t have to trade them.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really like the Cardinals OF, and I’m not saying don’t do it, I’m just saying don’t do it if it involves KJ or Yunel. I’d be willing to go as high as Flowers+Fluff players, but nothing more.
Bradley would probably be a good fit. You can’t ever really know. He puts up good numbers, and the market is really thin right now. If we can make an offer on Dunn ok, but I don’t see than happening. I really think Francoeur will turn it around, and it may be my downfall.
by someguy917 on Nov 17, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair Enough.
I went with Morton/Reyes, Prado and a “touchable” prospect (maybe someone like Locke or Rohrbough) as an offer to the Cards for one of their available OF. I’m not sure if that’s high, low or right on the money, but it’s my beat guess. I still don’t know about Bradley in LF for us, but I like the guy because he seems to have turned things around in Texas. I’m not expecting much from Francouer, but it’s senseless to trade him now. Give him one last shot to sink or swim in Atlanta and hope for the best, is my hope.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right on the money. Remember Bradley is only my choice after a trade. I just think he is the best FA.
by someguy917 on Nov 17, 2008 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good plan, except...
I would substitute #2 with trading for Peavy if the situation presents itself again. I am wholeheartedly against signing Burnett, and am queasy about signing Sheets. Both of them have that injury concern, and throwing big money at them would be a mistake. Especially with Burnett, who has shown in his career that his motivation lacks once he’s got his contract.
by soup du jour on Nov 17, 2008 12:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
#2
I think we should offer the Padres four pieces (maybe Morton/Reyes, Freeman/Flowers, Gorkys and Boyer/Locke) for Peavy and let them come to us if they want to play ball. If we can sign Sheets/Burnett and Dempster/Lowe to reasonable contracts, I’d prefer that to trading for Peavy.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 12:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps.
But I think it would be preferable to trading for Peavy and signing one of those. But regardless, I wouldn’t be disappointed with either situation, as long as we didn’t go through the roof to sign one/two of those guys…which is what the Yankees look like their doing.
by soup du jour on Nov 17, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tazawa is 22, not 18 but still young talent we desperately need. Sheets and Sabathia are the only aces available. Burnett isnt an ace. Healthy only EVERY THIRD YEAR and the last two came in contract years. Only two years in his entire career with an ERA under 3.50. Im skeptical of trading kelly with the assumption that Prado can play everyday.
by jeg on Nov 17, 2008 12:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
My Bad.
Read an old Tawaza article, I guess… Burnett has made more starts that Sheets in the last three seasons and his overall performance has been comparable despite pitching in the tougher league and division, so I view them as equals; you are right to question A.J.‘s mental toughness. Also, I said I wouldn’t trade Kelly or Yunel because I don’t think we can replace them appropriately. Thanks again for the heads-up about Tawaza’s age.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 12:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tazawa imho should be the primary target. burnett’s stuff is slightly better all around than sheets’ but as far as command and control are concerned sheets is significantly better. I just would have serious doubts as to how much we would get out of AJ in a five year deal. Not to say either is a perfect option, but it seems very plausible that we could sign sheets to a 2 to 3 year deal with a lower average anual value while burnett will require at least 4 years and 15 million per minimum. im just extremely skeptical of burnett’s inability to put up back to back good years or full seasons. given some of the question marks surrounding the SP’s not named Lowe and Sabathia, I would seriously hope we would look into Freddy Garcia. He would be much cheaper and has the upside to be a # 2 starter. Randy Johnson should also be considered as he would not require a risky longterm contract and would be a # 3 who would also be inline to win his 300th game as an added bonus. We need to seriously address the depth as well. A young pitcher comming off as large an inning increase as Jurrjens did last year is highly vulnerable to injury. Though he has a very sound delivery, he remains an undersized young pitcher who has had some minor arm problems in the past. He has to be considered at risk and should be protected as best as possible. We seriously need to look into Cain and Greinke as well
by jeg on Nov 17, 2008 2:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Greinke, Cain and Garcia.
I agree that Tawaza should be our #1 target, as is reflected by the fact that I have him as the first point in my original post. I’m not as high on Greinke as some are (I’ve seen suggestions that we should replicate our offer for Peavy to the Royals for him) but I won’t say I’m not interested. Cain would be ideal, but I doubt he’s even available and that cost would be astronomical. Freddy Garcia is an interesting idea, but I’d put him at bottom-of-the-barrel (along with guys like Hampton, Glavine and Randy Johnson) as more of a finishing touch than a major point. I’m concerned about Jurrjensbecause of his workload in 2008, but not worried. Thanks for commenting!
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 4:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
cain’s price would be higher than peavy’s i would suspect. but it would be nice to see him heading our rotation for next 7 years or so. but yes too costly prospect wise. agreed on garcia being a finishing touch as well but id be more willing to bet we would get 175 innings of 4.00 era from garcia tbefore 4 healthy, productive years of aj burnett. part of my though process on acquiring greinke is based on the dotel trade in which dayton took davies when many people around the league were suprised he turned down the mariners offer which was widely acknowledged to be balentien, who was a much more highly regarded prospect at the time of the trade. based on that trade, it would it would seem he may have taken the player he was familiar with and believed in despite a seemingly greater offer from elsewhere. not exactly determinable but something to consider none the less.
by jeg on Nov 17, 2008 4:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
brad penny
i’ll say it again: if you are thinking about burnett, then take a look at penny as well. they both have injury concerns and burnett has been a consistent underperformer throughout his career. his price could also get really high given the yankees also want him (in addition to CC). Penny is a big question mark, but a MUCH cheaper one.
tazawa is a no brainer
by son.of.sourman on Nov 17, 2008 12:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burnett v. Penny.
I agree that Brad will be much cheaper than A.J., but that’s about as far that comp goes. Burnett has been an underperformer in that he hasn’t been as good as his incredible stuff, but he’s outperformed Penny by a mile despite pitching in the much more difficult environment. Maybe Brad Penny is an interesting bargain basement option if all else fails, but that’s about as far as I’ll go.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t get why Penny all of the sudden is looked at as a used up pitcher. Yeah he was bad this year but he was also hurt a good portion of the year. I would like to see him pitching in Atlanta next year and think that he could be an ace if he gets healthy.
by jack dein on Nov 17, 2008 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting.
If he’s cool with a one year deal and he’s interested in Atlanta, we should definitely check in with him. His 2008 was an abject disaster, but he’s definitely an interesting low risk, high reward gamble.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 4:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah but ...
i feel like he fits your 3 year plan a lot better than burnett – he does right? penny is said to be okay with a 1 year deal as he proves himself again. burnett would want 4-5 surely right?
by son.of.sourman on Nov 17, 2008 1:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that and i think you are wrong about
when you said “Burnett has been an underperformer in that he hasn’t been as good as his incredible stuff, but he’s outperformed Penny by a mile despite pitching in the much more difficult environment.”
here are the stats. i don’t think it’s anywhere close to your “mile”:
brad penny career: 94-75, 4.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 1032Ks, 1400+ innings pitched
aj burnett career: 87-76, 3.81 era, 1.28 whip, 1278ks, 1300+ innings pitched
i feel like if we agree either guy isn’t in the long term plan, might as well take cheaper guy and use the money elsewhere.
by son.of.sourman on Nov 17, 2008 1:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but i do agree
that burnett is the better pitcher. but the price increase isn’t commensurate with the production increase, most likely
by son.of.sourman on Nov 17, 2008 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Burnett v. Penny, Round 2.
Like I said above, I’d offer Burnett around 4/$56M max ($14M per year) and move on if he wanted more. I’d prefer to give him even 3/$48M if possible, but I’d take it to 4/$56M if neccesary. Penny on a one-year deal is not a bad gamble and, honestly, his 2008 had simply dropped him off my radar prematurely. As for the heads-up comparison, I use the last three years for a more accurate portrail of their current abilities.
Burnett: 3.94 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.04 K/9 in 522.2 IP (80 GS)
Penny: 4.16 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 6.11 K/9 in 491.2 IP (83 GS)
So, while Penny isn’t that far off in ERA, Burnett has the better components by far. Perhaps more surprising is that A.J. is right there in games started and actually ahead in innings pitched. Obviously Burnett comes with more risk (the bigger contract, more persistant physical and mental concerns, etc.), but he also comes with the better reward. Remember, A.J. played those three years in the A.L. East and Brad did so in the NL West. Honestly, I’d be intersted in both at this point, but if I could only have one (at my prices), I’d take Burnett. Hope that clarifies things for you and thanks for the comments!
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 4:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i believe TOR has essentially offered burnett 4 years at 54 M already and he turned it down. i think someone is going to offer him 5 years at around 15M per at some point and i hope we dont try to top their offer. penny and $40M > burnett
by jeg on Nov 17, 2008 6:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair Enough.
If someone’s willing to go five years with Burnett, more power to them, because I wouldn’t. my soft max of $56M over four years could be moved up to $60M, I suppose, but again, if someone wants to pay him more than that, I hope they enjoy him because I wouldn’t.
I just simply don’t see Burnett and Penny as an either/or proposition, because only one of the two is an ace (A.J.). Maybe Brad should be in the mix with Dempster and Lowe (as a cheaper alternative for a potential #2), but then again, maybe not because his 2008 was THAT bad. I’m interested in him, but I’m not crazy about him.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Nov 17, 2008 7:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yanks
are nototious over-payers. they will almost definitely give him a ton of money.
by son.of.sourman on Nov 17, 2008 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Compliments
I appreciated the Moneyball reference – I consider that to ring quite true as well. Sometimes the best move is not making a move, and I think the Braves committing to the Ibañez or Garland types are silly, and not worth it in the big picture.
I have my skepticisms about Tazawa making it here, but I’d love to see him make it. That being said, I agree that the at least making offers to all these potentials is still a great idea; the fragile psyches of professional athletes could potentially see the offers if at least, as good-will efforts to bring them in which give them that warm and fuzzy wanted feeling that so many often use the reasoning of, a lack of, for basis to leave a place. Hopefully Tazawa feels strongly about the Braves being the first team to make an offer, and keeps Atlanta considered regardless of what future offers come in from others.
And in rare instances, and I don’t really see it in this year’s crop of FAs, but there’s one factor that often goes overlooked – a player’s family. The most notable example would probably be Greg Maddux, who turned down more money from the Yankees to come to Atlanta because he preferred the easier life for his family, and had his eye on a particular school system he wished to infuse his children into. It’s hard to get a player to look your direction if no offers are made, so simply offering can’t ever hurt a team. Burnett’s got a wife and two kids – perhaps he’d be one to target?
But overall, I enjoyed your list and glad to not see names like Sonnanstine, Tejada, or Wolf. Also, the correct spelling of all player names too. The only thing I disagree on is Ankiel, because one, I feel that he is a tad overrated, and has an inflated consensus on him subsequently, and two, I just feel he’s too much of an injury risk, and you already mentioned his status as a free-agent-to-be.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 17, 2008 9:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I can’t imagine Wolf would command a large contract, and his 2nd half stats weren’t half bad…very surprising considering he moved from Petco to Minute Maid:
12 Starts with Astros (traded on 7/30):
70.1 IP, 68 H, 7 HR, 24 BB, 57 K, 3.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 17, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m just not a big fan of Wolf. It makes it irrelevant if he were to play for the Braves, but in the limited times I’ve seen him pitch, against the Braves, he either gets shelled or gets cheap wins held on by the bullpen after like five innings.
Also, I think he’s likely to somehow get an over-inflated contract based on his tenure in the bigs; and for a guy who I feel is a 4th, maybe low-3rd starter at best, I think we’d be better off paying for someone better, or not doing anything all instead.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 17, 2008 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s cool…to each his own. He was on my fantasy team for a short time last year and he actually put together some pretty good starts. That’s the only reason I even bothered to pay attention to him.
I just don’t know if he’s going to get a huge contract since last year was the first time since 2003 that he pitched over 140 innings. Depending on the price he could be another cheap alternative, ala Randy Johnson.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 17, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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