What Free Agents Should Interest the Braves

by gondeee on Nov 15, 2008 8:00 AM EST in Free Agents Comment 35 comments

I guess the article should be more aptly titled, "what free agents interest me." But of course I am coming from a Braves-centric point of view, so this is at least half-accurate. I'm mostly listing free agents from other teams that I think the Braves should sign.

I still think it's a good idea to give John Smoltz and Tom Glavine another year (and I think they will be healthy enough to give it a shot in spring training). I also think we should try and resign Jorge Julio and Greg Norton, but to me, those guys are just there to maintain the status quo. Here are the top-10 free agents that the Braves should go after this winter:

1. A.J. Burnett, RHP - Yes, he has an injury history, but he can also be a dominant starter. If the Braves think he can be consistently dominant, then they may throw some big bucks at the guy. At age 31, he should be entering his prime. Still, this is a high risk, high reward signing, but it's time to roll the dice.

2. Ken Griffey Jr., OF - He'll be 39 next year, and this may seem like more of a sentimental signing than anything else, but don't you get that feeling that Ken Griffey Jr. has something left to prove. Ever since he got injured in his second year in Cincinnati, he hasn't been the same guy he was for all those years in Seattle. What we need is a two year power guy in the outfield to bridge the gap to Heyward, and would there be a better way to draw a crowd to the Ted next year than a legend like Griff.

3. Ryan Dempster, RHP - Like Burnett, he's 31 and primed for some career years. After bouncing around between the bullpen and the rotation, he seems to have found his calling as a starter. He can walk some people, but he keeps the hits down. He's a guy who will benefit in Atlanta from a solid defense behind him.

4. Junichi Tazawa, RHP - This is a project guy for at least a year or two, but he could be a big part of the next wave. We should use this year's glut of extra cash to get some of the best international talent, and Tazawa's it.

5. Randy Johnson, LHP - Yep, I said it... Randy Johnson. At least we know he can throw a perfect game at Turner Field. If we need a guy who can fill out our rotation as a second free agent starter and bridge the one or two years until we get to the Hanson's and Rohrbough's of our minor league system, then Johnson might have some good gas left. Besides, he had a 2.41 ERA after tha All-Star break last year -- that's the old Randy.

6. Jeremy Affeldt, LHP - He's a lefty relief pitcher who is more than just a LOOGY -- the kind of reliever that Bobby Cox loves, who can face more than one hitter. Will Ohman is a solid pitcher, but Affeldt is a step above that. With a few extra bucks in our pocket, perhaps this is the year we can spend big on a lefty setup guy for the next several years.

7. Bobby Abreu, OF - He's a speed and power guy and more of a three-hole hitter, but there's always a chance he could find his power stroke and fill out the four-hole in his later years. He's sort of a second or third option, but worth a look.

8. Mike Hampton, LHP - The only reason not to sign him is to keep Mac from pulling a muscle of his own making videos of Hampton pulling a muscle. Still, an incentive laden contract could produce a solid back end of the rotation guy with xtra upside.

9. Derek Lowe, RHP - Be wary of this guy. He's older and the friendly pitching confines of Dodger Stadium have been very friendly to Lowe. His road ERA during his stint as a Dodger is almost a run worse than his ERA at home. If we sign him, then we should know he's not the under-3.00 ERA guy he's been the last four years.

10. Randy Wolf, LHP - Do we need the Wolf-pack in Atlanta? He's not the first, second, or even the fifth option, but if all else fails he's a lefty and has been an innings-eater in the past. Another good guy to sign as a second free agent pitcher signing.

That's my list, it's just one opinion. The Braves need pitching and power hitting and I think at least half of that can come from the free agent market. Tomorrow I'll outline what moves I think the Braves should make in both the free agent market and the trade market -- it's the "if I were GM" segment of the show.

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I could be completey wrong and I’ll probably get lambasted for this, but I agree with your first choice in Burnett. He will be entering his prime and if you compare his stats to Schilling at this point in his career; they are very similar. Can Burnett turn into a lights out ace in his 30’s? We can hope if the Braves sign him.
I would be wary of Lowe too. I’m not sure he fits into our plans at this point. His best seasons may be early in his contract and we need the reverse.
In addition, gondee did you check out the free agent class for next year? I didn’t see anyone that great, but I guess that could change. It may be wise to pick up a free agent or two this offseason. Especially since our first round draft pick is protected.

by BravesFan on Nov 15, 2008 8:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

1. Burnett- He’s got great stuff, but his injury history concerns me, and the last thing the Braves need to do is tie up tons of money in someone who’s going to be riding the bench half the time. It’d be better than signing Lowe for 5 years, but I still would advise against it. The peak for pitchers is not 31+, it’s usually in the 27-31 year old range.
2. Griffey- He’s done. He’s terrible in the field, can’t hit very well any more, and would make the most sense as a DH in the AL.
3. Dempster- Avoid him like the plague. Again, not entering his peak, had a fluke season, and will likely revert to someone posting a 4.20+ ERA. Would NOT be worth a 5-year, 65+million contract, which is what it might take to get him.
4. Tazawa- I agree completely. It’s basically like getting a 1st round pick to make up for our lack of one last draft. Don’t blow money on Dempster or Burnett, but instead, funnel it towards signings like Tazawa and other big international free agents, while at the same time going way over slot in the draft in order to get names that other teams are afraid to draft due to signability concerns.
5. Randy Johnson- Again, I agree. Won’t require a long-term commitment, should pitch very well next year, and even if he does get injured, you’re not tied down to him for multiple years. He’ll also be cheaper next year than any of the other big time FA pitchers.
6. Affeldt- Yeah, I’d take him, as long as the contract isn’t insane.
7. Abreu- His defense is terrible now, but he’s still a decent hitter. I’m not sure how much he’d command, but if it’s more than $12 million or so per year, probably not worth it.
8. Hampton- Again, depends entirely on the contract. I wouldn’t be averse to something like 1 year, $3 million, with the chance to make up to $8 million if certain benchmarks are met.
9. Lowe- Will actually probably be the best guy to sign this year. Sure he’s older, but he pitches a style that’s conducive to aging, in that he’s an extreme sinkerballer, much like Tim Hudson. He’s basically the definition of a #2 starter, and should continue to be good for years to come. I’d take him over Burnett and Dempster, for sure. The whole requiring a 5-year contract kind of scares me, though.
10. Wolf- Fine if we sign him for 2-3 years at like $6 million a year or so, maybe even a little more. Nothing too extreme, though.

by drdonkeypunch on Nov 15, 2008 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

*correction

Meant to say that Burnett would be better than signing Dempster for 5 years, not Lowe.

by drdonkeypunch on Nov 15, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ummm...

Just to be clear: players typically exit, not enter, their prime in their 30’s. And, just for fun, here’s a blind player comparison for the 2006-2008 time span:

Pitcher A (31-year-old righty) – 3.94 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.04 K/9 in 80 GS
Pitcher B (30-year-old righty) – 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 7.67 K/9 in 72 GS

What’s awesome about that is that Mr. A is your #1 free agent target and Mr. B isn’t even on the list (despite the fact that he’d come cheaper and for less years). Anybody know who Mr. B is and why even people who like Mr. A are alergic to him???

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 15, 2008 10:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mr. Sheets

That’s a very good point actually. Did the Braves say they weren’t interested though? Sheets is obviously an injury risk, but probably not more so than Burnett. I think everyone is really scared about Sheets cause of the elbow right at the end of the season. Was it just a muscle strain or is there an incoming TJ?

by VictorW on Nov 15, 2008 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Im a brewers fan as well as the braves fan (braves first, dont worry)… but i pay attn to the sheets thign a lot… when he hurt his elbow, the initial report was that he had forearm soreness… if you go through and search every TJ surgery i garuantee it starts with some type of forearm soreness… This doesnt really mean a lot… but i think TJ could be in his future, although at this point if pitcher A is on the braves he seems destined to be a TJ candidate.

ultimately i think TJ is a very real possiblity for SHeets, with his past “forearm pain”

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 15, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Burnett's Mechanics are bad too

Linky. Basically explains why he’s always hurt. I should probably dig around later for something on Sheets

by VictorW on Nov 15, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting.

Abreu is an intriguing name that I hadn’t heard before. Moving him to LF would help with the defense and I still like him as a hitter. I wonder what kind of contract he’s looking for. I certainly prefer him over Griffey, who would be a decent fallback option of LF on a short, incentive-laden contract.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 15, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think Abreu will be our left fielder.

by secondbass on Nov 15, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The prime ends after 30

There’s obviously exceptions, but the decline typically begins after 30. For pitchers, I’ve heard the decline begins as soon as 28 or 29. Obviously you can still be useful, but the best years are gone.

Burnett: Legit ace stuff. Absolutely electric. But injury prone and will be expensive.

Griffey: If the price and years are right, this would be a great signing because of the ticket sales. He’s definitely declined offensively and defensively, but this signing is more for reputation and revenue recouping his cost than straight ability. I think he isn’t a Type A either, which is good.

Dempster: Pretty solid but hopefully no one expects last season’s performance. He’s a pretty good pitcher, but going to come down to earth. Still probably capable of sub 4 ERA.

Tazawa: I think most people would love this signing.

Randy Johnson: He pitched like a very good #2 or #1 last season. If his back holds up, he can still be very good.

Affeldt: I don’t really know much about him but bullpen depth is very overrated. We already have an ace bullpen lefty and we can find another LOOGY for dirt cheap or resign Ohman.

Abreu: No, no, no! He’s a type A so you lose a draft pick and he’s declining very rapidly. He used to be underrated when he was an OBP machine, but he’s old now. He was the worst or second worst defensive RF in 2008 and he will be expensive.

Lowe: Solid, but old. I don’t think the park influences him so much since he keeps the ball tethered to the ground.

by VictorW on Nov 15, 2008 10:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think Gonzalez really counts as the left out of the pen, since he’s the closer. He’s not going to come out in the 7t to face a tough lefty hitter, they’re going to save him for the ninth. I don’t think anybody wants to overpay, but the team needs a reliable lefty reliever who’s not the closer.

by cbwilk on Nov 15, 2008 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I was under the impression that Soriano or Smoltz would close

But yeah that’s basically some bullpen mismanagement by Bobby because Gonzo is more useful as a bullpen ace. If they use Gonzo right, there’s no reason to sign another lefty.

by VictorW on Nov 15, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano missed most of this season with an injury that seemed like it was never diagnosed correctly, I don’t know how much he can be counted on for 2009. Smoltz missed a huge chunk of the season and with his age and injury history, I don’t think he can really be counted on for 2009. Gonzo is the closer, not the lefty.

by cbwilk on Nov 15, 2008 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We won’t lose a first round pick if we sign a type-A because of our record last year.
On Lowe, check out his splits at Dodger stadium each of the last four years, he’s a run better at home, or a run worse on the road, however you want to look at it.

by gondeee on Nov 15, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In regards to Abreu our pick is protected I believe. And sticking him in LF will help him defensively.

by H0SS on Nov 16, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

we’d still lose a second rounder.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Nov 16, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Burnette

Burnette should be #1 on our list with a power hitting OF to play LF as #2.

People who question burnette only need to go back to last season to the game he pitched against us, he was unhittable. Yes I know he has had injuries in the past but that also has limited his innings so he doesn’t have the innings of a 31 year old with 10 years of service time. He missed all of 03 with TJ surgery and then missed time in 06 & 07 but still made 20 starts in every season from 04-08.

My #2 choice would be to try and sign Adam Dunn say what you want about the .250 avg 200k’s,and atrocious defense but he also gets on base 40% of the time hits 40HR drives in 110 and scores 100 runs. We need this kind of production. I would also look at getting a guy like Rocco Baldelli as a platoon guy and have Dunn Play some 1B against tough LHP and let Kotchman get a rest. Baldelli can’t play every day or he would be one of my main targets but in this scenario you get the a stud SP, and a money bat in the OF with a very good 4th OF and you have spent about 33-35 million you still have abou 8-10 million left to sign a SP or still make the peavy deal and you are still ok for 09 and beyond.

by mauck98 on Nov 15, 2008 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

for mentioning Dunn.

Burnett is really risky, but he has true ace stuff.

by VictorW on Nov 15, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the Burnett idea...

…I think Johnson would be a great addition at a great price, and this Japanese kid intrigues me. Is everyone adverse to signing Dunn? No one seems to mention him, and I for one love the guy. Not sure what kind of salary he would command.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 15, 2008 12:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

dunn

I have no idea why people don’t list him I know we want a RH to play in LF because of our difficulty against LHP and in our division with Hamels, Moyer, Santana, I understand that but Dunn is a rare commodity and I think he would fit in well in our clubhouse he should be had for around a deal of 3/49 or 4/65, you can add Baldelli for a 1/4 or 2/10 deal and you have a very good LF & a 4th OF who can give dunn a rest and let dunn play some 1b and give Kotchman a rest it is a 2 fold signing. Bye giving Dunn either of those deals and the Baldelli deal you still have money to sign Burnette for 4/64 and still money for a Sp like Randy Wolf, John Garland, or Freddy Garcia to fill out the 3&4 spots.

by mauck98 on Nov 15, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn has a career .833 OPS against LH pitchers, so I don’t see the fact that he isn’t a RH batter as a huge problem. It’d be nice to find a RH hitter to put in between Chipper and McCann, but I don’t think it’s the end of the world.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 15, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Love Burnett, would really like to get him now that Peavy is out. No to Griffey he’s basically a DH now and could end up in Seattle to close out his career. No to Randy Johnson, would rather have Hampton back.

by dwbrave on Nov 15, 2008 12:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I hate your list. I agree with Burnett at number 1 but Affeldt and Randy Freaking Johnson before Derek Lowe? Griffey is done and we would be much better off getting Burrell, Dunn or Ibanez rather than him. I like how you got Wolf at 10 though, I think he could be a cheap signing.

by SayHeyWerd on Nov 15, 2008 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

no burnett. most over rated pitcher in free agency. derek lowe at 35 is a much stronger bet to be healthy

by jeg on Nov 15, 2008 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

if you want to go high risk/high reward with burnett

then just take brad penny instead! same injury concerns, but he will take a 1 year contract and for cheaper! think about it talking chop!

by son.of.sourman on Nov 15, 2008 2:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I deffinitely agree with this, I have been wondering why he gets no mention at all. I think he is a safer bet to be healthy then Burnett(although I do like Burnett too).

by DMac142005 on Nov 15, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ken griffey jr. seriously? this isn’t 1995.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Nov 15, 2008 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I feel the same way.

Griffey would be a ridiculous signing. I’d rather give B. Jones a shot out there than waste time with Grif.

I also don’t understand the total aversion towards Ben Sheets and the love affair with Burnett.

by get swoll yunel on Nov 15, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

because over the past 4 years, ben sheets has started over 25 games one time. if he’s not gonna start 100% of his games, why should he get 100% of the money?

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Nov 16, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One minor change

I think Tazawa’s gotta be #1 on that list. The Braves need to focus on 2011 (please keep the prospects!) and by signing Tazawa they are getting a young pitcher who should be ready to blossom at the same time the Braves are ready to compete.

I understand the risk, but it’s better than signing someone like Griffey who will be overpaid, old, and injury prone.

by Zorak84 on Nov 15, 2008 10:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I mean, could you just imagine a potential rotation with the likes or Jurrjens, Hanson and Tazawa apart of it? YIKES for opposing teams :)

After Tazawa, I think Burnett should be the team’s second main priority. He is the best pitcher available after CC. And call me crazy, but I really don’t see him signing with the Yanks. If Wren gives a legit offer (atleast 4yrs and $70 million), then I think it will come down to either Toronto or Atlanta.

As for the outfield, I think the Braves have to target Dunn or Bradley. Abreu is ok, but I don’t see how he would fit in the Braves lineup. They already have a superior #3 hitter in Chipper and he really isn’t a cleanup hitter either.

Now if Wren adresses one of the rotation holes through free agency, as well as getting an outfielder, then I think he should pursue the second front of the rotation pitcher via trade. Guys like Greinke, Snell, E. Jackson could all be available, but at the RIGHT price.

After that, Wren should look at resigning the following free agent Braves: Norton, Julio, Ohman, and Smoltz. Would $15 million get it done for those main four.

by ChipperTeixeira89 on Nov 16, 2008 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Greinke would probably NOT be available at the “right” price. We would probably have to overpay for him. Snell and E. Jackson should not even be considered as options. I would rather go all year watching Jo Jo Reyes and Anthony Lerew pitching out of our 4/5 holes than to give up a prospect for either of those two.

by scstrato on Nov 16, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

edwin jackson sucks, milton bradley can’t field, and ian snell is done.

and no one has said greinke is available. everyone is just drooling over him because he plays for a shitty team.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Nov 16, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What do you mean Milton Bradley can’t field? Putting him in the field is riskier because it only increases the chances that he gets hurt, but he’s a solid corner outfield defender who’s even played some center in his day. He’s an above-average defender if you put him in left, no doubt about it.

by tgthree on Nov 16, 2008 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs