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After All That... Nothing

All the fervor over a possible Jake Peavy trade has apparently been a lot of hot air. This from Kevin Towers late yesterday:

The Padres have been unable to line up a trade with one of Jake Peavy's preferred teams and next could turn elsewhere to move the ace pitcher's four-year, $63 million guarantee amid apparent financial duress.

“We've had advanced discussions with the Cubs and Braves, which are Jake's priority teams,” General Manager Kevin Towers said Thursday night, “but at this point in time, I do not see a potential deal with either club.”

Well, good, I guess.

One of the best points I think the Choposphere as a whole as come to an agreement on over the last month is that the Braves are better off spending money on free agents rather than spending money and prospects on Jake Peavy. I, for one, am ready for the team to look in other directions.

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I think this is Towers trying to milk the Braves for a little bit more

and I think we should call his bluff. Let him talk about other teams and other deals, and if they take a lesser package from one of them, that’s fine with me. But this could be yet another opportunity to get the price on Peavy down, and if this is the trade Wren wants, it may be wise to continue to wait.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 14, 2008 9:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

You know....

I was one who wanted to get jake peavy at the prosposed price that has been alterated a lot over the past week or so. The reason being is that our best two trade pieces were ones that I thought were very managable to replace to improve our team along with the Peavy acquistion. Gorkys could have been traded because we have a better fielding CF in Schafer who is closer to being ML ready, and I have always felt that Yunel’s value has a player was more inflated because of how inexpensive he was(compared to what hecould have gotten on the open market) instead of the talent he will eventually develop into. I think Yunel will put up renteria type numbers in his prime, and while that is valueable, I would definately trade the potential of him getting there as the main piece to get an ace in peavy in a heartbeat.

That being said, the more i think about, the more I would not mind the braves going out and getting Dempster. Lowe, Burnett, etc. and trading KJ for say Ludwick instead of us going to get peavy. My reason is not so much with the fact that I would be pissed if we lost Yunel, as stated above…..It simply is on the matter of available money. Say that we were to go out and Get Peavy, replace him with Renteria, and then sign Juan Rivera. We not only have spent close to 30 million, but we have also lost young talent. Instead, say we go get one of the three pitchers mentioned above, and then trade kj for Ludwick, we have actually only spent around 20-22million, we have a capable backup to replace kj, and we still have all of our pieces in place in the case we wanted to go trade for a Grenke, Cain, Sanchez, so on.

My biggest point is that the braves need to very active early on in the free agent shopping spree, go out and get the pitcher that we want at a reasonable price, and that puts us in a position of even more leverage. Our need for Peavy goes down, we still have all our young talent in place, and this gives us even more options to improve the team, a position any team always wants to be in.

by bravesbeast1985 on Nov 14, 2008 9:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Excuse me...

Replace yunel with renteria…..

And even more importantly, while I think that signing Furcal at 13-15 million over three to 3 years would be a better value signing than signing burrell, dunn, abreu, and so on, I just think that we can find a better way to spend our money than Signing Furcal, Trading for Peavy, losing some young talent, and having very little to spend on the open market, as all we really have done is acquire one top of the rotation pitcher, albeit one of the best, and a shortstop marginally better than yunel…..
We need to make moves that keep us in the position to fill all our holes at a comfortable price

by bravesbeast1985 on Nov 14, 2008 9:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but Lowe, Dempster, and Burnett are already on a lot of teams’ short lists. I think the Cubs have the best shot at Dempster. Lowe has already said he would want to go back to Boston. And who knows about Burnett, but I definitely don’t see signing 2/3 and it may be tough to even get 1.

by Bobby Cocks on Nov 14, 2008 9:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

That is a very fair point.....

and thus is the point of free agency. If we wind up going after all three and striking out, then perhaps we should include locke with yunel and gorkys and be happy to get Peavy. However, if those first three go, then there are still a lot of pitchers out there who I think would be of great interest to bring to the national through a trade not to the level of peavy. Perhaps Greinke, that may not be a bad idea. What about Javier Vazquez, although his contract might be to expensive. Anybody think Edwin Jackson could survive in the NL, or Sonnastine perhaps. Perhaps the Orioles would explore the option of trading Guthrie if they get no improvement in their free agency search, and the twins surplus of pitching has plenty of young talent (Blackburn, Perkins, Bonser) who could be at least be 2 or 3 type pitchers in the NL. MY point is that there is pitching out there that is available. The nl could potentially offer Cain or Sanchez from the Giants, Arroyo from the reds, perhaps Snell or Malhom from the Pirates. While only a few of these options are top of the order rotation options, a lot of them have not reach their prime yet, and could be gotten at a cheap price. I would love to get Peavy, Cain, Lowe, Burnett, Dempster, or perhaps Sheets, and then get one of the other pitchers in this post. This is what makes the FA period fun.

by bravesbeast1985 on Nov 14, 2008 9:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Towers is using "strategery"

I’ve never seen the media used so much in trade discusssions (outside of NY or Boston). Towers is simply trying make Wren think he’s gotta cave to get Peavy, when its in fact Towers whose back is against the wall, being forced to cut payroll. They’ve already picked up Giles option, so that leaves Peavy’ salary to unload. The bit from Peavy’s agent about the Braves being “hot and cold” is a bit baffling, and it makes me think Axlerod is helping out his buddy Kev.

 I still think the Braves will end up with Peavy, and hopefully it will be screwing Towers into taking a lesser package without Escobar. But the only thing that concerns me about putting Peavy on the backburner and going after free agents is the possibility of striking out on the FA market, and then having to return to the Peavy trade reeking of desperation.

by 10-4 on Nov 14, 2008 9:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Those of you...

…who think we could get Cain on the cheap have lost your mind.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 14, 2008 10:04 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

i dontknow how viable this is, but i had hears the GIants snuffed a rumor of Cain to teh Brewers for Fielder

so if thats true the Braves dont have much to offer

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 14, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I heard the same thing.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 14, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

If the Giants are willing to use Aurilia at 1B instead of trading Cain, there’s no way he’ll be traded. Disregard my post below.

by buzzdeadwax on Nov 14, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cain is cheap

So the prospect cost will be very high. However, I would rather see this move, because then the Braves can truly go after another pitcher and an OF via FA. Both KJ and Yunel would be very attractive to the Giants, becuase their incumbents at 2B and SS have OPS of .681 and .686 respectively.

by buzzdeadwax on Nov 14, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I’ve heard people say that the trade would have to start with either Hanson or Heyward, and then add Yunel/KJ plus more prospects.

It’s just speculation of course, but wow…

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 14, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That’s what you ask for when you have no intention of trading the player.

by buzzdeadwax on Nov 14, 2008 5:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hence, the untouchable tag, I suppose.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 14, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One more option gone


I didn’t know where to put this, but it either has to be comedy genius at play or the Phillies were getting desperate.

by JFP on Nov 14, 2008 10:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I must say...

…that is pretty humorous. I don’t think the Phils are desperate.

by sddbaker on Nov 14, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol

The three most recent entries focus around Pete Orr, Bobby Crosby, and Raul Ibañez. Cue the Benny Hill music.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Nov 14, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It is not necessarily that we can get Cain Cheap in terms of prospects.....

It is more along the lines of the fact that he could post similar production to Peavy, while also costing 20 to 30 million less over the next four years at least. I would love to get Cain, but I do agree that the asking price could be right on par with Peavys.

by bravesbeast1985 on Nov 14, 2008 10:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

On par? Alot of people think it would be even more than Peavy’s asking price.. The kid makes $2.65mil next year, $4.25mil the following, and a club option of $6.25mil in 2011.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 14, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Time to move on

If everyone thinks we’re obsessed with Peavy, we will not see as many serious offers.

by Mekons5 on Nov 14, 2008 11:48 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I hope this is true, but then again focusing on signing marginal free agent starters (Burnett, Dempster) is an even worse decision, so…

by 17843 on Nov 14, 2008 12:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Burnett may be an injury risk

but he’s far from a “marginal starter.” When healthy, he’s a #2 or a low end #1.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 14, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Low End #1?

When healthy, there are not more than a handful of pitchers in all of baseball with better stuff than AJ Burnett.

He can be absolutely dominant.

by dmack on Nov 14, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Keith Law said he might have “the best raw stuff of any starter in baseball”.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 14, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Burnett

I remember a game this summer against the Braves. He was just evil. That curve of his was unhittable. Then again, so was his fastball. The Braves hitters were staggering back to the dugout shaking their heads.

I just get nervous giving huge bucks to someone who is one fraying tendon away from TJ surgery. I’d rather stick with what we have, and throw the money and prospects at, say, Carlos Lee. I’m assuming that Hanson is going to make the team and that Parr or someone else can fill in, and we get Hudson back in July or so.

But if we are just spending money, no prospects, both Burnett and Dempster look like good bets to return value. All we lose is our No. 2 pick in the draft.

by Mekons5 on Nov 14, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

what indication do u have that we could get Carlos Lee, first off the guy is a monster and prob the most underrated hitter in baseball. and why would the Astros break up the bst 3-4 hitters in the game… i may get some arguemnt here but Berkman and Lee can absolutely MASH. i dont know who is better.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 14, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No indication

The Astros’ system is empty and they’re going nowhere in that division. We have a package that could get Lee…maybe even Oswolt. I do know the Braves have inquired about Lee, and it looks like his hand is fully healed.

Lee is a guaranteed 30/100 guy and not too bad in LF. That is our No. 1 need, IMO. McCann is not a cleanup hitter, and we have way too few RH hitters who can actually, you know, hit.

by Mekons5 on Nov 14, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and we dont lose anything because our draft pick is protected

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 14, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately

Every pitcher is “one fraying tendon away from TJ surgery”. Signing pitchers is a crap-shoot. There was nothing to indicate that Hudson had a bad elbow, but then it blew and now he’s out for a year. All you can do is make sure they’ve been thoroughly checked out by team doctors, and then cross your fingers.

by buzzdeadwax on Nov 14, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Aside from the injury risk Chipper Jones would be the best player in baseball save Albert Pujols. If I’m going to overpay for an asset though, I’m want the most valuable asset. Burnett may be a #2 when healthy, but in the last five years he’s missed the equivalent of a season’s worth of starts. That drastically affects his value, especially when you’re talking about paying for his age 32-3? seasons.

His injury history suggests he’s not going to age well and he’s already exited his peak preformance years. Why would any responsible GM throw in excess of four years and $54 million at that asset. Burnett is worth that money if he pitches like he did last season every season, but his last five years suggest him as 2.5 wins above average a season (in his peak) or about ~$13 million a season on the open market. Adjust that for inflation in the value of a marginal win and for his natural aging and it comes out about the same. In other words, assuming he ages gracefully and assuming he stays healthy all four years, 4 years $54 million would be what he’s worth to a team. That’s now the starting bid in this auction. Any more millions we’d pay him would be overpaying him even suggesting the most rosy scenario for him value-wise.

by 17843 on Nov 14, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Generally, I agree here...

but I wouldn’t be opposed to a 2-year contract in the 25 million range. I don’t mind overpaying for a couple of seasons as long as we can avoid a long term commitment that could well blow up in our face (HAMPTON, cough cough).

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 14, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of Burnett

MLBTR is reporting “mutual interest” between Burnett and the Braves. I’d love to get him. I don’t think we can land Lowe and Dempster doesn’t interest me. Just throw 8 million at the Big Unit for 1 year and get him. Burnett/Unit/JJ/Camillo/Hampton…not too shabby.

by TradeAndruw on Nov 14, 2008 3:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

while i dont think that is a horrible idea, i would like to see a rotation where less than 3/5 doesnt have a significant injury history… its not crazy to say a month into the season we only have JJ and Campillo… last year we put too much emphasis on aging pitching, with injury problems (glavine never had injuries but he was old, SMoltz has had arm problems for the past couple years, and Hampton well nm)… i would like the Unit on our team but i think he could be had for much less than 8M, the highest we should go is 6M… if we could get hm for that we in good shape anything more we are setting ourselves up for dissapointment (IMHO). I think someone would outbid us for JOhnson, but then we either pocket the money or use it in a more sensible fashion, like a OF bat or locking up some of our young guys (yunel if he is still with us)

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 14, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"Dempster doesn’t interest me"

Me, neither! He shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as Lowe, Burnett, and Sheets. He had one good season after several mediocre ones. How is he a safe bet?

by buzzdeadwax on Nov 14, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

screw the padres then

they can keep their high effort, always-terrible-on-short-rest , injury-waiting-to-happen pitcher then.

by son.of.sourman on Nov 14, 2008 4:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

AJC

The paper just stated that FW confirmed that the discussions are stopped for now. So we will be going on with FA that is good to know cause I thought FA might be postponed for this colossal decision.

by H0SS on Nov 14, 2008 5:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Meanwhile in Arizona......

Tyler Flowers hit #11 today.

by secondbass on Nov 14, 2008 5:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think he is at least a year away and yes if Pat the bat and Ibanez can play LF then I am pretty sure T-Flo can.

by H0SS on Nov 14, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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