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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Creeping Ever Closer

At this point, if the Atlanta Braves do finally trade for San Diego ace Jake Peavy, it will be the least dramatic trade we've ever pulled off. How long have we been talking about this? A whole month? DOB says he wrote an article on October 6th about a possible Jake Peavy trade. The latest incarnation of the trade comes from CBS Sportsline:

Under terms of the deal discussed by the Braves and Padres, San Diego would receive shortstop Yunel Escobar, Class A outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, one of two starting pitchers -- Charlie Morton or Jo-Jo Reyes -- and either reliever Blaine Boyer or one of two minor-league left-handers (one of which is believed to be Jeff Locke).

This is the first we've heard of Boyer, but I'm more inclined to deal him than either Cole Rohrbough or Jeff Locke or another young arm. Boyer still has plenty of potential, but gosh he was abused last year, and he didn't respond very well to the increased work load. The article also says that the Padres are leaning towards Morton over Reyes. That is also fine with me. Both have their pluses, but both also have their flaws. It's anyone's guess as to which one will have more longterm success.

Another foregone conclusion that seems to be mentioned everywhere is the requirement by Peavy, as part of his approval of the deal, that the Braves pick up his $22 million option year, making the total remaining obligation $81 million over five years, or just over $16 million a year -- pretty decent for an ace pitcher, even if we are giving up our own talent to get him. Really, how often does an ace like this become available? You've got to act while you can.

If this trade does go down as described above, we will have traded three shortstops since August of 2007, and yet we would still have another shortstop (Brent Lillibridge) who was considered by some to be better than Escobar just two years ago.

Meanwhile, the Cubs and manager Lou Pinella are downplaying their reported interest in Peavy:

The Cubs' interest in Jake Peavy appears to be only so much talk.

Manager Lou Piniella said as much Wednesday [...] And others close to the situation suggested what Piniella said: that the Cubs' primary focus this offseason is adding a left-handed bat in the middle of the order, with any interest in Peavy falling well down the list. [...]

''I think it's only talk,'' said Piniella

And the Cubs interest in the first place may have been a negotiating tactic:

That appears to make the Cubs' role in the San Diego Padres' efforts to trade the 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner -- and his $67million contract -- more of a willing listener than a serious pursuer as Padres general manager Kevin Towers tries to drive up the price on Peavy. And that might explain why every national media report on the subject the last week appears to be based on San Diego sources.

That's probably why we haven't heard of any massive expansion in the Braves offer to the Padres -- only minor pieces being moved about.

Another often mentioned aspect of this trade is the Braves insistence on a Friday deadline for San Diego to either accept or reject the trade. So get out your countdown scripts and get ready for a potentially wild next 48 hours.

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Still don't like this deal

and I think that may put me in the minority here, but oh well.

Here’s why I don’t like it -

1. No pitcher is without risk, but Peavy comes with a more significant risk than, say, Derek Lowe. Peavy hasn’t yet suffered a serious injury, but I’ve seen a couple of people that study pitching mechanics indicate that Peavy is at an increased risk for arm injuries due to his rather wild delivery. He also rarely makes it late into games, and when he does, it’s with dramatically reduced effectiveness. Futhermore, 2008 was a very down year for Peavy, and he did miss time with elbow soreness. I’m not so sure it’s a good bet that he’ll be the ace we hope for over the life of the contract. If he’s not, then this deal will be a bad one for us.

2. No clear replacement for Yunel Escobar, who was a top 10 major league SS in a year where he was hampered by nagging injuries. If 2009 is even a slight improvement in the power department, he’ll be one of the top 5 shortstops in the major leagues, and he’ll still be pretty damn inexpensive. Free agents like Renteria or Furcal are either less effective, more expensive, or both. Lillibridge is unproven and coming off a terrible season at AAA.

3. The availability of pitching on the free agent market means that we don’t necessarily have to add Peavy to field an improved rotation. Derek Lowe is a solid #2 starter who is as close to a lock for 200 innings as a pitcher gets – he’s reached that mark in I believe the last four seasons. Honestly, I’d rather have Lowe than Peavy anyways for the reasons laid out above. In general, I think the glut of available pitching means there should be deals available.

At this point, I’m resigned to this deal going down. It’s pretty clear that Wren wants to make it, and at least we aren’t giving up any of our top 5 prospects. I hope that the Braves’ know something I don’t about Peavy’s arm or Escobar’s future outlook, because from my perspective this is a high risk trade that is hard to justify considering the team’s position.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 13, 2008 9:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Peavy's Career Home/Away Numbers

Home: 678 IP, 543 H, 47 HR, 195 BB, 717 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
Away: 583 IP, 546 H, 81 HR, 212 BB, 539 K, 3.80, 1.30 WHIP

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 13, 2008 9:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well

I say go look up Lowe, Burnette and Sabathia career home/road splits. They aren’t much better.

by JFP on Nov 13, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sabathia’s are almost identical, except for a drop in K’s away from home.

My main issue was the fact that Peavy has allowed 44 more HRs away from his home park in 95 less innings. A little bit alarming to me.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 13, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

From DOB's blog

I pulled these from DOB’s blog

Lowe: 76-47 with a 3.26 ERA at home, 50-60 with a 4.25 ERA on the road.

Burnett: 49-25 with a 3.45 ERA at home, 38-51 with a 4.16 ERA on the road.

Dempster: 45-30 with a 4.22 ERA at home, 31-51 with a 4.87 ERA on the road.

by JFP on Nov 13, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No offense, but please don’t quote wins and losses like they actually mean anything for a pitcher.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 13, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No problem

I realized the flaws in W-L records, so lets move to the ERA’s Peavey’s Road ERA is nearly as good or better than those guys home ERAs that is an ace away from home.

by JFP on Nov 13, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don’t get me wrong his away stats are still really, really good. But I just think there are some people who may be surprised if his stats aren’t as eye-catching as they were in Petco. He’s still going to be the #1 pitcher on almost any staff in baseball.

That’s all.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 13, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It isn’t exactly like Turner Field is Fulton County. It’s one of the better pitcher parks in the league. If Peavy was going to Coors Field or Comiskey or Citizen’s Bank, it’d be one thing, but I doubt his number are going to take a huge jump in Atlanta.

by cbwilk on Nov 13, 2008 12:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Out of curiosity

Peavy’s only pitched twice in Turner Field. I would have imagined more, but we’ve seemed to not get him here that often.

2003 – 5.1 IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 3HR, 3BB, 7K, 109 pitches/65 strikes – Loss
2006 – 7.0 IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 1HR, 2BB, 8K, 111 pitches/72 strikes – Loss

I’d base nothing on these numbers if we were to get him, but post them just for show. But, if we get him, the line for his home debut would theoretically be:

2009 – 10.0 IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 0HR, 1BB, 9K, 113 pitches/84 strikes – CG, Loss

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Nov 13, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ha, I’m wasn’t even trying to argue. Simply providing a brief glimpse that Peavy may not be as ace-like away from Petco (think it opened up in 2004?)

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 13, 2008 11:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We’re in agreement on the fact that Peavy’s numbers are inflated by his home park. I’m just saying that purely pointing to home-road splits isn’t a great way to show that.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 13, 2008 11:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Very true…but I’ve only got limited time to pull up stats when I should be doing work. Just thought home/road splits was the easiest way to display my point. Apologies.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 13, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't like it either

But if it happens… Whatever. It’ll be cool to have a legit ace like Peavy, but I still don’t like this trade. I don’t like creating a massive gap that require signing FAs to expensive contracts or burn more prospects on a trade. SS’s are in high demand right now so they aren’t coming for cheap and Yunel is much better than anyone available (unless you trade for Hardy). The injury risk is what really scares me because Peavy’s had elbow problems, but hopefully things hold up. I think I’d rather have Cain than Peavy because of that.

by VictorW on Nov 13, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure if you frequent the site, but did you see some of the trade proposals being thrown around on MLBTR?

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 13, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Peavy's endurance

I’ve heard from several sources about Peavy’s lack of ability to pitch deep into games and decided to look into it. In 2007 Peavy completed at least 7 innings 61% of the time. That number dropped to 48% in 2008 (partially due to nagging injuries probably). Derek Lowe on the other hand (who by the way I’m a big fan of and would love to have him here) completed 7 innings in only 44% of his outings this year so I don’t think it’s fair to discount Peavy because of his endurance late in games. There are certainly other reason not to make the trade but those reasons should be based on facts, not perceptions.

by ajones2522 on Nov 13, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That’s good info. Add in the fact that Lowe turns 36 next summer and you’d have to think that number is only going to get lower. If anything, he seems like the kind of old, declining player that the Mets love to sign for a ton of money and then act shocked when they stink in two years.

by cbwilk on Nov 13, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

bahahaaha BLAINE BOYER. i love it.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Nov 13, 2008 9:35 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

If Boyer leaves does that mean Ohman has to pitch in all 162 games?

by matches on Nov 13, 2008 9:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

We should just give Peavy pre-emptive TJ surgey so he can be back along with Hudson in 2010. Maybe Francoeur and Lilliridge will learn how to hit by then.

by TradeAndruw on Nov 13, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not a bad idea.

He had a scare early last season. I’m sure we’ll give up 6 players for Peavy, and after his third start he’ll need TJ. At least he’s someone to jack around with Hudson in the dugout.

"Have you ever had your heart broken?"
"Yeah, when we lost the pennant in '87."

by jug on Nov 13, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I prefer roy hobbs' deal

He suggested Reyes, B. Jones, Lillibridge and a million dollar gift card at Chic-Fil-A. Isn’t Towers fat? He might go for that.

by buzzdeadwax on Nov 13, 2008 11:34 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

So if Peavy thinks the Braves won’t be as good without Escobar, does it cancel out if we include Boyer in the deal?

by 10-4 on Nov 13, 2008 1:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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