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Around SBN: Guest Blogger: Juco All-American Answers Five Questions

Trading Escobar: Good or bad?

So JFP's post made me think:  we've been kicking this Escobar / Peavey trade around for a while now, debating from every angle.  But I'm wondering about how the majority here feel.  I know some have switched sides after all the discussions as well.  I thought it would be interesting to take a look at where we stand now.  Thus the poll.

The original assertion was that a majority here feel that a Peavey deal including Escobar is a steal, but not in the Braves favor.  I re-wrote that as a question (apologies to JFP - I hope I'm not misrepresenting the intented point of your post....).  I know the poll choices are very narrow with no wiggle room - but that's really the issue I'm taking up - Escobar, yes or no?

 

 

 

 

Poll
Would any deal that sends Yunel Escobar to the Padres, regardless of other players / prospects involved, be a bad move for the Braves?
Yes
46 votes
No
71 votes

117 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments

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+1

The only SS that’s remotely available that’s possibly better than Yunel right now is Hardy, which requires significant prospects. Lilli can’t hit big league pitching yet. Renteria is no good unless he’s going to have a BABIP of .375 again and even then his defense is gone. Yunel is better defensively than Furcal and their bats are close. Considering that Yunel is in his athletic prime, there’s a good chance that he hits better at this point. Furcal stealing bases at a 75% clip does not nearly make up for any of that.

by VictorW on Nov 13, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not at all

If I had a choice of players on our roster that I DON"T want to trade he would be near the top. He is still young and still has yet to hit his highest potential. I don’t want to trade him at all. But the older I get and the more I see moves of this caliber made, the more I realize that you can’t get a guy like Peavy and not give up something that hurts. Most of the time it would be pretty much out of the realm of possibility for a franchise with our payroll to even pursue a guy that is just one year removed from the CY. It is perfect timing that the Pad’s pretty much have to get rid of him due to payroll cuts and we are one of the only teams that has the players to package for him.

Long answer short is NO. Not a bad move to give up a good position player for a bona fide ace.

by Fischerking on Nov 13, 2008 8:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Surprised.

If you would have told me when we were eliminated from postseason contention this past season that we would be in position to acquire Jake Peavy for a package of Yunel, Morton/Reyes and Boyer/Locke/Rohrbough, I would have brushed it off as fanciful thinking on the part of Braves fans. Remember when GMs around MLB thought we’d have to give up at least one elite prospect, if not two, plus multiple quality pieces as well? If we could make it Yunel, Reyes and Boyer for Peavy, I’d be thrilled. If it’s Yunel, Morton and Locke/Rohrbough, I’d still be plenty pleased.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 13, 2008 9:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Gorkys.

I somehow completely forgot to mention Gorkys in all this talk. Still a good deal, I think.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 13, 2008 9:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is a very valid point

The demands from the Padres have certainly come down from where they were at first. I’m still not a fan of this package, but I don’t think it’s as bad as the earlier rumored packages.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 13, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Get him out of town

As much as I like Yunel, he did set the Braves single season record for grounding into the most double plays.

by tdoublem23 on Nov 13, 2008 10:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Get Out Esco!

Dont get me wrong, I am a big Escobar fan. Well, at least I was last year. He’s going to be good in the near future but not a superstar. This year was dissapointing for him and the people who were watching him on a daily basis grounding into all of those double plays and killing rallys. Plays great defense at times. No disrespect to Esco but this is a business and we need an Ace too bad its at your expense.

by AlRoBraves95 on Nov 14, 2008 12:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Clarification

Maybe I should have said any deal involving Escobar plus 2-3 more guys for Peavey is a steal for the Padres. Peavey for Escobar straight up may lean one way, but no one is stealing.

The parameters of the trade right now gives the Padres a steal.

by JFP on Nov 13, 2008 11:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Morton vs. Reyes

and Blaine Boyer vs. Locke, Could easily distinguish how good a trade this is.

by Charmin519 on Nov 13, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree, although I’m already glad that they favor Gorkys over Schafer. I would hate to have to part with Jordan as well as Escobar, so I consider this aspect a win as well.

But it is an assumption that its Locke…a good one, but an assumption nonetheless. I’ll be much more upset if its Rohrbourgh.

by soup du jour on Nov 13, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't we have to trade Yunel at this point?

This is only my opinion, but he seems to wear his emotions on his sleeve, and I’m afraid that he’ll pout for several months if he’s brought back next year.

by buzzdeadwax on Nov 13, 2008 11:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes, even a straight up trade would be a net loser for the Braves. I’m not sure how many times I have to say this, but trading cost-controlled talent for expensive talent is not how you build a winning ballclub. If this trade was about prospects like it used to be, I’d be for it. Dealing guys who haven’t proven themselves in the major leagues for a guy who has is a good use of resources as it balances the risk of them not developing with their potential return. However, we have a reasonable idea of what Escobar is as a player, and it’s not that inferior to Peavy that we should be looking to acquire the player with the much more expensive contract.

by 17843 on Nov 13, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I went No here

I’m quite shocked at the number of no votes. With all the discussions we’ve had it appeared to me more were leaning towards keeping Yunel than not.

Anyway, as 17843 pointed out above, it is clear that from a value perspective that keeping Yunel is better for the Braves. Can’t argue with that statistically speaking. But I still voted No for the main reason that I feel that the difference in Yunel over Lilli at SS is less of a gap in performance than Peavy over the alternative in the rotation. I understand the argument against this theory and I have very little statistical evidence to back my stance, it’s just my opinion that Peavy is the cog the Braves need to get back to being competitive.

by scstrato on Nov 13, 2008 12:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This to me is the biggest point in the arguement, that a Braves lineup without Yunel Escobar is more desireable than a Braves rotation without Peavy.
Without Escobar, the lineup still includes stars Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, as well as above average Kelly Johnson. Casey Kotchman, though not exactly what you want out of a first baseman, is a major league hitter. So you’re left with Francoeur in right, which is a huge question mark, some form of Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson in center, probably getting slighlty below average production, but both are young and have the potential to grow, and Brent Lillibridge, along with Omar Infante, at short, again, probably looking at below average production, but with room to grow. And we’ll get to left field in a minute.
Without Peavy in the rotation, there is Jair Jurrjens and a ton of question marks. In house options currently include Charlie Morton and Jo-Jo Reyes (one of whom may end up with San Diego) and James Parr, with Tommy Hanson likely to provide some starts later in the season. Jorge Campillo was pretty effective this season, but he wore down late in the year and there’s no gaurantee he can repeat his performance. There is also a chance that Tom Glavine and John Smoltz could return, but that seems like wishful thinking, as does a return of Mike Hampton, who seems destined to be paid more by some other team.
The arguement against getting Peavy is that there are plenty of free agent pitchers available. That’s obviously ture, but there are also plenty of teams that need starting pitchers. Add in the fact that the Braves have targeted adding two pitchers to their rotation, it seems unlikely that they would be able to not only keep one of Derek Lowe, AJ Burnette, Ryan Dempster away from the big spending teams that need pitching, but two of them. It seems equally unlikely that they’re going to be able to fill one of those voids by trading for another pitcher, if only because no other names, certainly not the quality of Peavy, have been mentioned as being available.
It seem much more likely that the Braves will be able to aquire a power bat for left field though. There are free agent options, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Juan Rivera (each with their own set of issues), and trade options, Magglio Ordonez (I’d come up with more but I dont’ want to start random speculation), but the bottom line is that good hitters are much more readily available than front of the rotation starting pitchers, particularly if a team is willing to take on their salary, as the Braves are in position to do this offseason.
And there’s also the argument against trading minor leaguers or young, controllable players. Well, that just baseball. You gotta give up something to get something. Is Escobar a valuable commodity? Sure. But he front a rotation and, at the moment, neither can any of those minor leaguers. I’m a Braves fan and I want to see a winning team. I also want to see a team building for the future, and I don’t think this Peavy trade is going to ruin that.

by cbwilk on Nov 13, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If you want to look at it that way

Then I bet Yunel vs his replacement is superior to Peavy vs signing a good free agent. Peavy will be cheaper money-wise than a FA signing, but not by much since he’s averaging a $15M salary. Throwing in Peavy’s injury risk just makes it worse. He’s not as much of a solid ace as someone like Sabathia, who has more ability and durability. I’m not saying sign Sabathia, but I’m saying Peavy is not as great as everyone thinks.

The fact that we still are 3-4 pieces from contending makes me hate the trade more because we’re trading a major piece which creates another giant, gaping hole. As much as I like Lillibridge, if people think he’s ready to play SS full time next season then that means Schafer is ready for full time CF duty and that’s just not the case.

by VictorW on Nov 13, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think the Schafer/Lillibridge comparison is completely innacurate. Lillibridge has played roughly a season of AAA and a small portion of a season at the majors. Schafer has played less than a full season of AA. Don’t get me wrong, Schafer is and will be the better player, but he is far less prepared to be an every day major leaguer than Lillibridge is..

by cbwilk on Nov 13, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lillibridge has awful plate discipline

and no pitch recognition. The only thing he proved last year was that he can’t hit big league pitching unless he fixes his approach and/or long swing. Yeah, Lillibridge is further along than Schafer is, but the idea that Lillibridge ready to fill in next season isn’t much better than expecting Schafer to.

by VictorW on Nov 13, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What are you basing this evaluation of Lillibridge on? His short, sportadic stint in the majors? Even his time in AAA this year seems like a bad judge, since he spent the majority of the season dealing with an injury that directly affected his swing. Brent Lillibridge is not the player we saw this season.
And expecting Lillibridge to play at a major league level this season is dead on with his development. He’s at the age and stage of his career where he is either going to prove himself as a major leaguer or not. Schafer is not at the same point in his career; he should be, and will be, at AAA, proving he deserves a shot at the majors. The two are not the same.

by cbwilk on Nov 13, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He was injured?

If that’s the case then that affects things.

As for why I don’t think Lilli can hit, let’s start with 2007. Basically he moved from A ball to AA and AAA. Before, he had a good K to walk ratio. In AA and AAA, his walk ratio is about 3 Ks to every walk, which isn’t good. I generally don’t care about K’s for a hitter, but he’s not walking so it’s a problem. He doesn’t have plate discipline and/or pitch recognition or whatever it is over more advanced pitching. He does have some legit power though, which is very nice. But I think Lilli leaves a big hole at SS because he can’t hit advanced pitching. The short stint in the majors just basically confirmed what happened in the minors for 2 years. I just think it’s contradictory to put an unproven SS to start the year when at the same time you’re trading for big names and singing FAs.

Schafer and Lilli aren’t at the same points in their careers, but the point I was trying to make is that basically people should expect Lilli to suck if he’s going to start SS next season, just like Schafer probably would. Here’s another comparison of 2 other players that are at different levels: Matt Wieters of the Orioles vs Francoeur. Wieters hasn’t played above AA ball yet but I wouldn’t be surprised if he can hit big league pitching as well as Francoeur and his 3 years of experience.

I can believe that Lilli’s a good fielder, but he has done nothing to prove that he can hit advanced pitching. But he does have legit power and a good glove and killed A ball. Good upside, but he’s not a solution at SS for 2008 if we want to compete. If it’s a mulligan year, then I have no problem with putting a completely unproven player at that position. But it seems the Braves want to compete and he’s not a solution for that.

Anyway, this all becomes kind of moot because, according to MLB Trade Rumors, the Braves are going to target Furcal if we get Peavy.

by VictorW on Nov 13, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree it’s probably a moot point, because I’ve really never believed that the Braves had any kind of plan to go with Lillibridge as their starting shortstop, that was just a bunch of conjecture by some writer.

And numbers are great, they are, but, for me, I saw Lilly play at AAA (and A and AA) and the kid can hit. He can be selective and he can get on base. Yes, he was hurt, he was very hurt, but he played through it and it ruined his year. I personally believe that he would be fine as Atlanta’s shortstop in 2009, but most don’t. So be it.

I would, however, have to disagree with the Matt Wieters/Jeff Francoeur analogy. I saw Wieters play this season at both A ball and AA, and trust me, he could have hit better than Jeff Francoeur this season in the major leagues. And yes, I mean in 2008, with Wieters never having played a professional game. Wieters is just that good and Frenchy was just that bad.

by cbwilk on Nov 14, 2008 3:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my opinion (not argument) is that the deal blows, but i’m ready for it to end — i can’t take anymore of mark bowman’s overexcited prattle about why this deal would be cute. fuck it. when the time comes i’ll just have to learn to stop worrying and love the peavy…unless his arm falls off first.

by brndn on Nov 13, 2008 1:33 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I would trade Escobar for Peavy

I would hate to trade Escobar, but for Peavy I would do it.

My reasoning – The Braves should not be looking realistically to contend in 2009, but looking to 2010. That said, the thing we lack the most in the minors and the thing that is most difficult to acquire via trade or free agency is true top-of-the-rotation pitching. While we could conceivably get a nice arm in free agency this year, it is no guarantee and it is unlikely to be as good a player and as good a contract as is Peavy’s.

Escobar can be replaced. The most important thing to replace is his defense at the position, which the Braves can do internally (Lil’bridge, Hicks). The offense can be replaced at a number of positions on the field by 2010 (anywhere in the outfield or ss). I would actually go for a one-year stop gap outside the org for shortstop, maybe a multi-year FA that we can flip elsewhere after 2009.

You have to get what you most likely cannot find elsewhere at the cost of what you can replace by 2010.

by parish on Nov 13, 2008 2:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Escobar's value will ever be higher than it is right now.

If we’re going to trade him, now is the time. I think he’s due for a drop-off in the future.

by Rhyno18 on Nov 13, 2008 2:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nothing says he’s due for a drop-off. He had a shoulder injury almost all of last year and still had an OPS+ of 103 or so, all while playing elite defense. He’s a smart hitter that knows how to hit for average and get on base, and can hit for decent power when his shoulder is healthy. He’s also just beginning to reach his theoretical peak as a player. Nothing indicates that he’s due for a downturn. If anything, he’ll be better in 2009 than he was in 2008.

by drdonkeypunch on Nov 13, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Except his attitude is going to cost him OBP. If you don’t think umpires are going to squeeze the strike zone on him as he shows more and more of them up, you’re kidding yourself. Unless he stops acting like a spoiled child, he’ll be out of the bigs in 4 years, no matter how good his defense is.

by Rhyno18 on Nov 14, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hate to lose Escobar

Thing about Escobar: I don’t know how good he’s going to become. My gut feeling is that he is going to very very good. Last year he suffered thru the shoulder injury. His good friend Brayan Pena was let go, and I think this affected him as well. Great arm at short and good with the stick.

He is a smart ball player. Not only does he have skill but a lot of baseball intelligence. He knows to take off when the pitcher is tying his shoe or whatever. He knows to try to drop a soft liner to try to pull off a double play. He’s more interested in winning than ettiquitte. I would hate to see him go.

by niekromurphy on Nov 13, 2008 4:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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