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Juan Rivera

As has been noted, I have been doing a lot of brainstorming on what we potentially could do to improve our team this offseason, with my goal being to get the most value out of the least costs as far as a team strategy.  With that in mind, I really think one good strategy will be to sign juan rivera.  I understand that his skill set has only resulted in one solid year, ala Ryan Ludwick, and that 2006 was that year and was three years in the past.  However, my point is this, say we can sign Rivera to a year year deal with a mutual or player option for 2010, and the deal were say worth five million, it actually would be a very nice move to make.  Here are the reasons why....

We would have a nice option to put in left in the case that we could not make a move for a more proven bat via a trade.

It would put us in an even better position in trading KJ....we would now be able to more comfortably keep in unless were blown away with an offer because we would not have to focus on the need for a right-handed power hitting outfielder as much. 

It would give us more reason to shop Frenchy to see if some team would be willing to offer us a no-brainer type offer, as we would know have a replacement to put in right for francouer.

I really do believe that Rivera would be a much better route as a value signing than Burrell or Dunn, as Rivera would cost around 10 million less per year while probably putting up comparable production.

If we can sign rivera, that would give us nearly 40 million left to focus solely on pitching, and I could actually see us perhaps being a player for the higher end talent, like Sabathia or Burnett.

Just was wondering what yall's thoughts were on this and if yall had any other bargain type free agent signings that could open up some options for us.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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Dude, I wish you had gone back and read some of the old posts before you put this up. These guys are gonna rip you a new one over Juan Rivera. Good luck with that.

by cbwilk on Nov 10, 2008 12:47 AM EST reply actions  

That is fine

I feel I have some pretty decent ideas in place as far as signing Rivera goes, if others dispute it, that is their feelings, and that is the joy of having debates. Plus, if they have other ideas, that is why I like to post on the sidebar so much, to get other people’s opinions and then go from there. There seems to be some pretty intelligent posters on this site, so again, I always enjoy seeing other ideas people have. If you hate this idea that is fine, all I ask is that if you have another bargain type signing we could look into, please do post those options as well.

by bravesbeast1985 on Nov 10, 2008 1:13 AM EST reply actions  

I'm not

totally against it, but there are far better options out there. Rivera has been an okay player and could be had fairly cheap. My biggest issue is that I don’t think he could hold up all season having to play the outfield. A lot of his at-bats with the Angels came as a DH. The negatives on him are obvious he has never played in more than 134 games in a season and like you said 2006’s 448 at-bats were a career high. The other issue is that since 2006 his numbers have gotten worse fast. 2007 was a lost season but last year his average was just .246 and his OBP was .282. The OBP really scares me away because that shows that he doesn’t get on base much. The power isn’t bad, he won’t steal any bases, and he doesn’t strike out much. But like I said I wouldn’t be that dissapointed if they signed him. I just think that there are some better options.

by jack dein on Nov 10, 2008 1:17 AM EST reply actions  

I do have to say that the free agent market is a little bare in the outfield. Burrell and Dunn will each get well payed and so will Abreu, I think we will probably trade for a left fielder.

by jack dein on Nov 10, 2008 1:20 AM EST reply actions  

I agree.

If you look at his numbers from this year, he is definately not not the type of producer he was back in 06 and before. However, I am one who believes that some players just have an off year and then they get back to producing. He missed nearly all of 2007 due to a broken leg, it may have taken him a while to get back in the swing of things. However, my point is that I looked at some of the numbers he posted in 06 and before, when he was getting playing time, and his situational and split stats due support the fact that he could be a nice middle of the order option if given the opportunities. My biggest point is that if we could get him for around five million on a one year deal with options following that, I really do think he would be a much better value signing than Burrell or Dunn, who would cost 15 mill or more per year for 4 or 5 years. You do bring up a good point about Abreu, I think we would be a nice signins as well, but not at 3 years and 45 million like i am sure he will be seeking. I would rather pay maggs that amount ovver the next three years.

by bravesbeast1985 on Nov 10, 2008 1:30 AM EST reply actions  

the thing is he may not cost $5 mil. a year. He made only $2.025 mil. in 2008 and his 08 performance shouldn’t warrant that big of a salary increase. I could see him being had for $3.5-4 mil. The thing is while the Braves are trying to aquire someone better he will probably sign with a team that has limited salary space before the Braves even come to him.

by jack dein on Nov 10, 2008 1:45 AM EST reply actions  

2006-2008 Splits

Ryan Ludwick (30): .288/.362/.551 (.913 OPS) in 841 AB
Adam Dunn (29): .244/.379/.518 (.897 OPS) in 1600 AB
Pat Burrell (32): .254/.385/.504 (.889 OPS) in 1470 AB
Juan Rivera (30): .286/.331/.490 (.821 OPS) in 747 AB

Rivera is not in the same league as the other LF you mention in your post. Ludwick lacks AB because he didn’t get his big break until later in his career, as opposed to Rivera who can’t stay healthy, but he’s always delivered when given the chance. Dunn and Burrell make up for their low batting averages with exeptional plate discipline, as seen in their impressive OBP.

Rivera would be a fine value if it wasn’t for his durability concerns. I wonder if he’d take a deal like the one you suggest, but I’d prefer not to have our improvements be such question marks. Sorry.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Nov 10, 2008 2:11 AM EST reply actions  

Very Valid points....

Those are some very good viewpoints, so I guess the biggest question is this…..Which would you rather have…..

Adam Dunn and his above stat line at 4 or 5 years and 15 million per

Pat Burrell and his above stat line at 3 or 4 years at 15 million per

Ryan Ludwick at his above stat line and fluke and durability concerns and without the promising young player we trade for him (KJ) for three arbitration years

Juan Rivera at his above stat line at a bargain contract in terms of years and price and with the proming young player(s) you did not have to trade

My point is that the numbers you posted above do not seem, to me, to provide a significant enough difference to constitute giving Dunn or Burrell 10-12 million dollars more per year and 2 to 3 more years, or trading some decent to promising player(s) who could impact our 2009 season for Ludwick, instead of signing Juan Rivera at a bargain contract and not having to give up any players.

While I do agree his production may be a notch below, I just feel Rivera could carry as much value in terms of the production he shows versus what we are having to pay him or gave up to get him than the other three options.

by bravesbeast1985 on Nov 10, 2008 2:39 AM EST reply actions  

My apologies....

AS i mentioned above with Ludwick, you do have to consider the fluke or injury concerns for Rivera as well in the options I provided

by bravesbeast1985 on Nov 10, 2008 2:41 AM EST reply actions  

Milton Bradley for Left field

Hello my name is Milton Bradley and I was a top ten offensive performer in the American League last year. I am younger than Burrell and better defensively than Dunn. I have more offensive value than Rivera and I will cost less than the two names mentioned above. I proved last year that I could make a whole season without doing something totally stupid and I am not looking to break the bank, just gain some financial security. That’s why I want you to vote for me as the 2009-2012 Atlanta Braves Left Fielder.

by JFP on Nov 10, 2008 9:04 AM EST reply actions  

I’ve always been a fan of Bradley’s ability and mentioned him in the past. His attitude is always going to be a problem, but as you said he seemed to make it through this past year without incident so who knows.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 10, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

and he made it the year before without incident if i remember… sure he got ejected from teh game in late Sep. but anyone who saw that could see that Bradley didnt really do anything wrong. The ump was egggin him on and that was more of a result fo Bradley’s reputation than Bradley’s newfound character. Im not usually a fan of guys with character problems in the past, however he seems to have conqeured his demons so to speak. Plus he is a very good player. i think it would be a very savvy move.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Nov 10, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I almost brought him up a while back in another thread BUT I thought for sure no one would agree with me. I like Bradley but I do have concerns over the character issues – remember the barnstorming of the TV booth, he didn’t really make it a full year without incident. But what’s one little incident, right? The other concern is his health and whether he can play defense AND hit for a full year. The Rangers got by with using him at DH most of the year. Not sure his knee(s) could handle the stress. Add in the multi-year deal requirement … well, let’s just leave it at that.

by scstrato on Nov 10, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Back when I was posting regularly I was a big advocate of him. But the question that I brought up was is the terrific OPS worth the possible headache? To be honest I thought he was older than he actually is, but it seems to me that there are alot of question marks surrounding him (which you did a good job of covering). I’d love to have him in LF, but only if the price is right. I just have a feeling some AL team will throw him a decent contract to be their DH.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 10, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm for Juan

I brought him up a while back and we had a good debate going. I understand most would be against signing him as he’s not in the upper tier of OF’s available, but when you consider the Performance/Cost ratio I’d rather pay 4/5 mil a year for .821 OPs than 15/18 mil a year for an .880 or > OPS. Especially when you consider our bigger need is pitching.

It may just be me but he’s always reminded me of Vlady Daddy at the plate. No I’m not comparing his numbers to Vlad, just physical appearance when he swings. It pains me that he’s had to play under Scioscia the past few years and I just feel like Bobby is the type of manager he needs. I wouldn’t be surpised to see him hit .280 with 28/30 HR’s hitting in front of McCann. Then again, I wouldn’t be surpised if he broke his neck in spring training and missed the entire year either.

by scstrato on Nov 10, 2008 4:51 PM EST reply actions  

Just curious where you got the .821 OPS from?

Personally I’m not really all that enthused about trying out a guy with 839 good ABs, especially when the other 909 look horrific. I know there are some injuries and inconsistent playing time in the mix, so if the price is right we may catch lightning in a bottle.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 10, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Oops

I was “borrowing” from ejruiz post above but I failed to credit him. Does that make me a plagiarist?

Now that I think about it, I believe you and I were the one debating Juan. I completely understand your concern, and honestly I have no leg to stand on from a numbers perspective, but I do believe the “lightning in a bottle” is a possibility. I guess my ultimate point is you assume more risk with his injury history, but that risk isn’t that bad considering the “lighter” cost.

by scstrato on Nov 10, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Ahh, my mistake. Didn’t see the 2006-2008 splits he had up there.

Understandable, as far as your injury/cost comments. What kind of deal do you think we’d end up signing him to? I wouldn’t want to get our hooks into him for to long, just in case he doesn’t play out. Last thing I want is two corner OFers who can’t support an OBP of .300

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Nov 10, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I honestly don't know

I’ve always shied away from the contract side of things. I’d guess maybe 2/3 years for 4/5 mil per? Then again, with the injury history, teams may not have interest and we could get him on a cheap 1yr for 3/4 mil.

by scstrato on Nov 10, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions  

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