Peavy to Braves possible
"While they don’t want to mortgage the future by trading away top prospects such as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Jordan Schafer and Hanson, the Braves have plenty of other prospects, especially pitchers, who might interest Towers enough to make a deal.
They don’t want to give up a pitcher such as Hanson or Kris Medlen, or an outfielder such as Gorkys Hernandez or Schafer, but perhaps the Braves would bite the bullet if that’s what it took to get Peavy, who’s no ordinary ace. Maybe — and I’m just throwing out ideas here — the Padres would be interested in Kelly Johnson, since they’re not certain about their second base position next season and like good OBP guys who can drive balls to the gaps."
Thought I would post this tidbit from Dave O'Briens blog.
He goes on to say that if Peavy came available the Braves would certainly be interested, and Peavy more than likely would not hesitate to approve any trade to Atlanta.
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If there’s some way to land Peavy without giving up Heyward, Hanson, and Schafer, obviously you pull the trigger. That’s going to be a lot of depth to trade though – look at what the D’Backs gave up for Haren and remember that Anderson and Gonzalez were better prospects than what the Braves would be including.
by 17843 on
Oct 7, 2008 12:28 PM EDT
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Why not
Forgive me, but i’m having a hard time understanding why we wouldn’t part with some of our most prized prospects for Peavy. I not sure what the actual ratio is but it seems like 4 out of every 5 prospects fail (including the highly touted ones). Don’t get me wrong, I love our prospects and I think there is a chance some of them become great major leaguers. But that’s just it, there’s a “chance”. History tells us they are more likely to fail. So why not? Peavy is a young, proven, elite pitcher and it’s not like we’d only acquire him for a year, he’s controlled/signed through 2012.
Sorry for the rant!
by scstrato on
Oct 7, 2008 12:41 PM EDT
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No, no, I’d trade one of them for Peavy certainly. I’m saying if you could actually get in done by trading from depth rather than the elite guys you do it. The only guy I absolutely wouldn’t trade is Heyward. Only because I think he’s truly elite and as close to can’t miss an any prospect.
by 17843 on
Oct 7, 2008 5:48 PM EDT
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Two scenarios to debate: List reasonable package that San Diego might accept including Kelly, and another not including Kelly.
KJ + Schafer/Gorkys+ Beau Jones+Morton /Reyes
Hanson/Rohrbough+Schafer+Lillibridge+Jones+Reyes
by dmack on
Oct 7, 2008 12:49 PM EDT
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I like that first offer, and would do it pretty much without hesitation, but i think Beau Jones was already dealt to Texas in the deal for Teixeira.
I think that KJ+ Brandon Jones+Morton/Reyes+ Lilli+ Medlen
by gopherbroke on
Oct 7, 2008 12:56 PM EDT
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how about
KJ, Medlen, Hernandez, Reyes for Peavy and a prospect, possibly Matt Teague.
by BlueVol03 on
Oct 7, 2008 12:52 PM EDT
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I think fair value would be to trade one of Heyward, Hanson, or Schafer. Depending on which they choose, add on value from there. I think the only player that I would hate to see go for ANY player would be Heyward, but if there is a short list of acceptable returns then Peavy is definitely on that list.
Jason is the key to the bargaining. If we can keep him, I’d be fine with most anything that Wren concocts. But I’ll tell you right now that I think it’ll be more than what most are offering here.
by soup du jour on
Oct 7, 2008 1:06 PM EDT
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Flowers, Locke, Medlen, and what the hell, JoJo
by 10-4 on
Oct 7, 2008 1:27 PM EDT
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Speculation is fun.
How about Hanson, Flowers, Reyes, a four of diamonds, a reuben sandwich w/ extra sauerkraut, a Star Trek: Voyager season three box set, and a handful of Obama’s butthair?
Everyone is a winner.
by Chopaholic on
Oct 7, 2008 1:34 PM EDT
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i really like reubens so that would be a tough call, and wasn’t season three when seven of nine popped on the scene, if so, then that’s probably a lock, and i haven’t given it much thought, but i bet you obama’s pretty smooth and hairless, also, I think we should probably swap out the four of diamonds for francoeur
by gondeee on
Oct 7, 2008 2:35 PM EDT
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You're right.
That four of diamonds could come in handy someday.
Prolly right about Obama, too… but only cuz Katie Couric is a wizard with a razor. };0)
by Chopaholic on
Oct 7, 2008 3:06 PM EDT
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I love specul...
… I bet you thought I was going to say “um,” but no, “ation.” The fact that O’Brien is already putting guys off limits is a silly exercise. As 17843 said, it would be great NOT to give up our top young players, but when you want to get a top guy, you have to give up top prospects. The ransom seems to be getting grander for these top pitchers, and the fact that Peavy’s already signed for the next four years means he’ll be even more expensive. To get him you would essentially have to rebuild the Padres roster with three or four TOP prospects — two top hitters and two top pitchers.
I’d like to see us take a crack at the free agent crop before we empty our farm system again. The odds are it’s not going to be one Jake Peavy who fixes the Braves in one year, so spend on free agents (plural) with an eye to 2010 and graduating some top prospects to the majors.
by gondeee on
Oct 7, 2008 2:45 PM EDT
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hernandez, flowers, locke, and like…i dunno, someone like an osuna or heath sounds just charming to me
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on
Oct 7, 2008 2:55 PM EDT
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FYF for Peavy, straight up.
We’ve managed to swindle a team each of the last two off-seasons. First we got Soriano for Horacio Ramirez and last year we got Jurrjens for Renteria. I’m sure we can do it again.
by BullManUGA on
Oct 7, 2008 4:08 PM EDT
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bulster olney opinion from latest chat
"Saw DOB’s piece, and I think he’s dead on — but they cannot make that trade without dealing at least one of their three best prospects — Hanson and Schaefer and Jason Heyward. We’ll see if they take it that far. "
From my point of view, I just don’t think the braves have the pieces to make this move. For one, the system isn’t as stacked as it has been in the past with the lost of some big names from the Tex trade. From that point of view, I don’t think it’s a good idea. More practically, however, other teams should be able to put together more competitive packages. The Yankees make a lot of sense, having balked last year, but still having some darn good trading pieces in Hughes and Kennedy.
by son.of.sourman on
Oct 7, 2008 4:16 PM EDT
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did you just say
Kennedy? Kennedy has very small draft value. Maybe straight up for another player like Salty or somebody like that but no way a centerpiece would involve Kennedy for Peavy no way. Maybe you meant Hughes, Kennedy and then others.
Ok its gonna take alot to get Peavy, i expect this package to get Towers on the phone and REALLY ponder about the trade.
Braves get Peavy, and Brian Giles(basically we take his contract on)
Padres get Hanson, Flowers, KJ, Brandon Jones, and Morton or Reyes
Ok the REASON i added Giles here is because i dont think the Padres will really put Peavy on the market until the winter meetings or a little after and i think by this time if we dont get Dunn or Burrell then Giles seems like a solid fit for LF for one season. Now if we can get Dunn or Burrell then we have no need for Giles.
Ok anybody thinkin that we could get Peavy WITHOUT adding Hanson to the deal is dillusioned and only fooling themselves the Padres will want a Young Stud prospect picher in the deal. If Flowers stays behind the plate then he can be there catcher of the future. KJ would fit good in that park and play second for them and maybe they could lock him up to buy out a few seasons of free agency or if he has a good year next year or before he reaches free agency maybe they could get a good bit for him in a trade, Brandon Jones replaces Giles in the outfield, he would be cheap for them. If anybody thinks Jones is better than Giles now is also fooling themselves and is a VERY big Braves homer. And then the Padres will want Morton or Reyes to take Peavys spot in the rotation now and both are young, cheap and have good upside.
I think thats a good deal for the Braves especially if we dont have to trade Schafer, Hernandez, or Heyward, but they might not trade Peavy unless they get Schafer or Hernandez in the deal and say take out Jones, but im not sure though.
The Padres might want Frenchy in the deal, not sure but i would definately not be surprised about that if they somehow want a deal that involves Hanson, Frenchy, Flowers, and KJ. Im just throwin this idea out there so nobody come say your out of your mind, just throwin it out there.
braves#1
by rockybull on
Oct 7, 2008 6:24 PM EDT
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nice job
it takes some truly creative reading to infer from “The Yankees make a lot of sense, having balked last year, but still having some darn good trading pieces in Hughes and Kennedy.” to kennedy straight up for peavy. really. well done there.
by son.of.sourman on
Oct 7, 2008 6:52 PM EDT
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hahhaha
ok now the way it was said is Hughes and Kennedy, to me it seemed like you was sayin one of the two EVEN though you said it with and. Ok and another thing I didn’t mean Kennedy STRAIGHT up for Peavy, maybe it seemed like it but i was not meaning that. Here is what i said: “but no way a centerpiece would involve Kennedy for Peavy no way.” So can you read correctly? I SAID NO WAY A CENTERPIECE WOULD INVOLVE KENNEDY FOR PEAVY NO WAY. When i say CENTERPIECE i mean the MAIN and BIGGEST chip in the trade. I NEVER SAID STRAIGHT UP FOR PEAVY. READ READ READ READ READ, OR if you dont fully read DONT you talk shit about what i said you got it.
But also i said this: “Maybe you meant Hughes, Kennedy and then others.” See i was STILL givin you the benefit of the doubt in that, i was a little confused because you said good trading pieces in Hughes and Kennedy so that still dont mean you was referring it to both in the same deal. You say that is what you meant so ok but i was not for sure and i am SURE others that read that will think the same way. Here is an example if i say The Braves make alot of sense, we still have some darn good trading pieces in Heyward, Schafer, Hanson, Gorkys. So when i say that does THAT mean that im involving all of them? HELL NO. So dont you say shit about me again you got that.
braves#1
by rockybull on
Oct 7, 2008 7:34 PM EDT
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giles has a NTC, and won’t waive it.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on
Oct 7, 2008 9:26 PM EDT
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he may do it if he can start everyday. He didn’t waive it for Boston because he knew he wouldn’t be playin everyday. They had Drew in Right, Ellsbury in Center, and it was Manny and now Bay in RF and Ortiz as the DH. He wanted to play everyday and he would not get that playin time there. He wants to get another good contract after his current contract ends and if he doesn’t play much he wont receive it. So if the Braves would start him next year then of course he would waive it. Huge difference between this situation and the Red Sox situation.
braves#1
by rockybull on
Oct 7, 2008 10:51 PM EDT
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i meant and it was Manny and now Bay in LF not RF.
braves#1
by rockybull on
Oct 7, 2008 10:54 PM EDT
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drew was hurt in boston. he was going to be playing every day. and if he turns down the opportunity to get a ring, what makes you think he’d accept a trade to a worse team just as far away from his family?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on
Oct 8, 2008 9:55 PM EDT
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because
he knew that Drew would come back and play this year then he sits on the bench. And if the Red Sox wanted to accept his option as a guy that plays LF, RF, and DH from time to time in case of injury or just to get at bats and in that case he wont get another good pay day again. He wants another good pay day when his current contract is up and if he did that for the Sox then he would not get that, he will prolly want a 3 year deal and he would only get 1 year if he went to the Sox. Now the Sox of couse could have declined his option but really who knows what would have happened and Giles did not know either.
braves#1
by rockybull on
Oct 8, 2008 10:23 PM EDT
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whatevs
i think it was that i was just saying that the yankees have some damn good trading pieces in kennedy and hughes. so those pieces could be put in any variety of package. i wasn’t hypothesizing as to what combination it would be.
and while we’re at it, kennedy is still a very good prospect (don’t know what you mean by “draft bait”). He ha dominated at every level of the minors, had some injuries and stumbled under the tremendous pressure of being a yankee this year. dont forget, he was only drafted 2 years ago, which will probably seem surprising b/c of how much he was rushed. for what it’s worth, his minor league track record is better than your boy tommy hanson.
by son.of.sourman on
Oct 8, 2008 1:46 AM EDT
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I meant trade value, it was a typo.
I agree the Yankees have some nice pieces and also Jackson is good too, and there young Catcher in there minors(cant think of his name).
Did you just say better than MY boy tommy hanson? Whoah whoah whoah he aint my boy. Have you not read anything that i have typed on here? I have said that he is NOT untouchable to me like he is for other people. If he was REALLY my boy i would say he is UNTOUCHABLE. So i have no idea where that statement from you came from.
braves#1
by rockybull on
Oct 8, 2008 11:51 AM EDT
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I say a big NO for Jake Peavy. I agree he’s an ace, but we need more than an ace to get us anywhere next year. We can’t keep trading our future away for one player. We’ll be back in the same position in no time. If we were competitive, then it would be a great idea. In addition, has anyone looked into Peavy’s elbow problems? Wouldn’t that be a huge disaster trading 5 prospects for a a pitcher who is primed for Tommy John surgery. By the time he makes it back to form, he’ll be a free agent and we’ll be watching our (would have been)future stars rake in San Diego and Texas!
by BravesFan on
Oct 7, 2008 7:23 PM EDT
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+1
for being the first person to mention elbow.
Here’s one thing about Peavy’s pitching mechanics. If anyone finds anything else, they should post it as well.
The bottom line on Jake Peavy is that I don’t think his recent elbow problems are a fluke or something that he will just breeze through. Rather, I think they are a symptom of a more serious and fundamental problem that may well derail his career.
The video isn’t too clear so some of it is hard to tell some of the details, but it sounds like Peavy’s headed for Tommy John.
by VictorW on
Oct 7, 2008 8:30 PM EDT
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Bedard cost Jones + Tillman + another good player + 2 more prospects
Jones > Schafer. Tillman is about on par with Hanson, give or take some. Add another good player… I’m not sure how good, but whatever it is, I doubt anyone will like it. Throw in 2 more players and even more because Peavy is a better pitcher and signed for longer. It’s going to be mighty expensive. No reason the Padres should sell low on an ace that’s under team control for 5 years (2013 option for 22M).
by VictorW on
Oct 7, 2008 8:25 PM EDT
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Next season
The Braves are way more than one player away from competing. I think they need to sit on their prospects and let them develop, and use the great drafting position next season to knock one out of the park. Save the money that would have been uselessly blown on Lowe or Wolf or whatever, and use it to make big signings in the draft, guys that have fallen due to signability issues or other stuff, similar to what the Red Sox do.
In this scenario, there will probably be 2-3 more rocky years before our current crop of young prospects comes up. In these 2-3 years, there will be some bad records, but that just means more good draft picks and re-stocking of the system. Once the current batch of prospects has come up, use the newly acquired depth to trade for some good pieces and make a run.
This team won’t be turned around in one year, won’t be turned around in two. It’s going to take a minimum of three years before all of the guys make it up to the majors and make an impact.
In conclusion, sit tight, draft well, and build up an incredible farm system.
by drdonkeypunch on
Oct 7, 2008 9:36 PM EDT
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I disagree that its a multi-year rebuilding process. We have a lot of young talent very close to being ML contributors and a very good young core including one of the best group of up-the-middle talent in the majors and more coming (Lillibridge, Schafer). Our pitching staff has plenty of guys with promise – Hanson, Reyes, Morton, Parr, James – and a 2010 rotation of Hudson, Jurrjens, Campillo to build around. None of Reyes, Morton, Parr, or James will really be much more than a #4 starter, but I like their chances to produce two such starters given time to develop next year without worrying about competing for the division. The bullpen is a weakness, but there’s a few good pitchers (Boyer, Stockman, Moylan, Bennett) who will be around in 2010 and several more guys in the minors who could easily be there (Medlen, Redmond, Valdez, Marek). There’s a chance we bring back Gonzalez or Soriano too.
The key to competing in 2010 will be the development of the young pitching, and whether Chipper Jones re-ups and is healthy enough to give us a 900+ OPS and 120 games.
I do agree with you that we should funnel that payroll surplus we have into the draft. There’s absolutely no reason not to take advantage of the draft and turning $10 million of payroll into bonuses for players who dropped will give us the ability to really reload talent after what was honestly a kind of weak draft in 2008 (at least in terms of future impact players brought in).
by 17843 on
Oct 7, 2008 11:05 PM EDT
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you're deluded.
i can’t believe i just read some of that. honestly, blown away. there’s homerism and then there’s a complete denial of reality.
“a very good young core including one of the best group of up-the-middle talent in the majors and more coming (Lillibridge, Schafer”
really? Lillibridge? best group of up the middle talent? really? this guy is mediocre starter at best, and most likely a utility guy.
“d a 2010 rotation of Hudson, Jurrjens, Campillo to build around.”
again, what? don’t get me wrong, i love jurrjens, but come on. hudson will be what, 35 in 2010 and he’s already had serious arm problems. and campillo? completely unproven, and it seemed like hitters were figuring him out at the end of the season.
you basically just supported the good dr. donkey punch – the braves were 6 or 7th worst team in baseball. a couple of free agents ain’t changing that much – time to rebuild.
by son.of.sourman on
Oct 8, 2008 1:52 AM EDT
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The Braves were actually around the 18th best team in the majors if you take talent (runs scored and runs allowed) and context (strength of schedule) into account. The Braves and Red Sox were the teams with the highest difference between their actual record and their record adjusted for true talent and context. We did not play 72 win baseball this year.
And yeah, name me more than a handful of teams with better C, 2B, SS, and CF players than us. We have one of the best four catchers in baseball, one of the best 7-8 shortstops in baseball, one of the best 8-9 second basemen in baseball, etc. Lillibridge and Schafer both project as top tier defensive players, no matter what happens with their bats.
Rotation-wise, Jurrjens will only improve from this point. He just put up a 3.68 ERA over 190 innings that was completely in line with his peripherals. There’s no reason not to expect him to continue being a #2 starter in 2010. Hudson is a question mark how he comes back, but he’ll have 18 months to rehab and prepare for 2010 spring training. There’s no reason to expect that he won’t stop generating a high 50s GB% and if he does that he’ll be valuable. An ace, no, but there’s no reason not to expect him to pitch 180-200 IP with a high 3.00s ERA. For Campillo, might the struggles at the end of the seasons have been a result of a career high in innings coming in his first ML season? I’d be surprised if he’s as good as he was this year, but is it out of the realm of possibility for him to be an average starter who pitches 180 innings? No.
No team should embark on a protracted rebuilding process when they have a multitude of young talent controlled for the medium term and several key veterans under contract that are losing effectiveness. We’re not primed to win it in 2009 because the pitching isn’t there, but the offense certainly has major upside.
It’s hilarious being called a homer by the way at a time when people are honestly expecting to contend next season based on the idea we’ll somehow attract three free agents to a place where no significant free agent has signed in years.
by 17843 on
Oct 8, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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MMmmmm, Prospects….
P.S. We’re not rebuilding
by scstrato on
Oct 8, 2008 9:20 AM EDT
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who is we?
are you frank wren? are you on the payroll? are you jeff francoeur? if not, then it’s not we.
by son.of.sourman on
Oct 8, 2008 12:44 PM EDT
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You can't be serious?
Is that the best argument you can come up with? “It’s not we”. Gimme a break. Every Braves fan from here to the end of the earth would use the word “We” when speaking about their favorite team in that context.
Furthermore, no i’m not Frank Wren, no i’m not Jeff Francoeur, and no i’m not on the payroll. But I AM a fan who pays attention and I can tell you that Frank Wren has publicly stated we will be searching for off season improvements with the intent to compete next year. Whether you agree to that or not means exactly a hill of beans to me, but if you’re intent was to prove me wrong then maybe you should do a little research first.
by scstrato on
Oct 8, 2008 5:51 PM EDT
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hmm?
didn’t realize i required a counterargument to the old “post a picture of home simpson.” argument.
of course it was my opinion (but likely the correct one) that the braves should be in rebuilding mode. it doesn’t take a genius to see that this ain’t the team from nearly 2 decades ago that’s going to go from last to first (or even close). so there’s no need to spend a lot of money or trade the future for an all star.
and no, every braves fan from here to the end of the earth does not use the collective we when speaking about their favorite team – because i do not do that. obviously. and it sounds ridiculous by the way, and is factually inaccurate. you douche.
by son.of.sourman on
Oct 8, 2008 7:00 PM EDT
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I agree that we should be rebuilding. Even teams like the Yankees with a $200 million payroll understand you must develop your own players to be part of the elite. The Yankess haven’t been developing any Jeters or B Williams or Posadas for some time and they know that’s a problem. We CAN NOT trade away our future for veterans that will be gone in a couple of years. Look at the way the Rays built their team. They will be competitive for years without a high payroll.
by BravesFan on
Oct 8, 2008 7:33 PM EDT
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sourman is probably really nice in person
Seriously though, I pretty much agree with your points, but you don’t have to be an a-hole toward someone just because they don’t agree with you. Where’s the fun in that?
by buzzdeadwax on
Oct 8, 2008 8:00 PM EDT
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Forgive me
I mistook you for someone who actually had some form of intelligence. Now I can see it’s nothing more than misinformed ego. I had no idea that everything you write is factually accurate. And you’re callling ME a douche …
And for the record, my Homer posting was a reply to 17843 above your post. I was merely piggy-backing on your homerism quote because I thought it was funny, but there again I made the mistake of thinking you actually had a sense of humor.
Last, and once again forgive me for disagreeing with the almighty S.O.S., who in their right mind would want to rebuild when the team is only lacking 3 pieces to be competitive. Granted they’re three pretty big pieces, but they can easily be filled. The Braves (is that better?) are not the Marlins, finances are not an issue and they’re not riddled with aging veterans. The mere thought of rebuilding is completely idiotic to me, especially when they have the resources to make it happen. Isn’t that what teams play for, to win?
And yes, you are right. It’s absolutely true because you wrote it! … I’ll bet reading that felt better than a cold beer on a warm summers day, didn’t it smart ass!
by scstrato on
Oct 8, 2008 8:09 PM EDT
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I agree with you scstrato that why should we rebuild? It wont be easy but i think that Wren will make the right moves hopefully. These are big ifs but if we can do it then we become instant competitors. Try to sign Dunn or Burrell under 5 years and if we cant do that try to trade for someone that we can potentially resign for years to come. Sign Lowe, Burnett, or Garland to 3 year deals and maybe 4 years for Burnett or maybe two of the three if we lose out on Dunn or Burrell. And if we sign Dunn or Burrell then maybe we sign one of the three pitchers that i listed and we go out and try to trade for another pitcher or go after a cheap guy on the free agent market. Then sign Ohman to a three year $3.5 million a year maximum deal. Resign Norton, he was a great Pinch Hitter for us this year.
It wont be easy but we have a solid team, heck im SURE that other than the Cardinal fans from 2006 season thought they had NO CHANCE IN HELL to win that world series or much less even get to the damn world series. Kotchman is a solid First baseman, KJ is solid and if he is traded i think Prado or Lillibridge or Infante could be decent enough starting, Escobar is good, Chipper is fantastic, McCann is fantastic, Frenchy is solid, yes i said solid i dont think that he will be near as bad as he was this year and his defense wont either. You dont win a gold glove by accident, i think he will have a very good defensive year and a good year with the bat. Blanco, Anderson, or Schafer in CF should be decent for next season. Not known yet about RF. Jurrgens is very good, Campillo is good, Morton and Reyes have alot of upside in my mind. Gonzalez is very good, Soriano is good when healthy, Moylan is very good when healthy, he should come back by June maybe or before. We only have a few holes, we can definately compete next year if Wren makes the right moves.
braves#1
by rockybull on
Oct 8, 2008 9:09 PM EDT
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im not trying to disagree with u on whether we should rebuild or “reload” (as i think thats the term to be used)… but even u said that we have players that are ok or decent or have upside… which is fine, but you also have to look at it from the other side theres a chance francouer will be worse than this year (look at his sept by the way it was the same old Frenchy if not better, his avg was high he just didnt hit for the same power), KJ could also regress more, Blanco and Anderson may never prove they can lead off or hit consistently. if KJ is traded maybe Prado, Infante or Lilli will all fail.. Campillo may not have gotten tired he may have gotten found out.
Im not trying to be pessimistic im just trying to keep people from thinking we only need 3 pieces. We def need a 1-2 startign pitchers… and a LF… but we could definately stand to improve at about 4 more positions. Namely SS, 2B, 1B, and pretty much the entire OF…
on the other hand theres definately a chance Yunel becomes the guy we thought he was… call this year his sophomore slump. Frenchy may mature and have CHipper help him on pitch awareness and become an absolute monster… Lots of stuff could happen. we entered this season thinking our Rotation would be really strong and our offense would be one of the strongest in the NL, neither happened. So while there are 3 spots we need right now at the AS break next year we might be saying different, or we might be blessed with an excess of talent… im rambling now and have lost track of my point but i did sya a lot so im done
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Oct 8, 2008 9:28 PM EDT
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WHA?
but we could definately stand to improve at about 4 more positions. Namely SS, 2B, 1B, and pretty much the entire OF…
I’ll agree that maybe 2B, 1B and the OF could use some improvement. But how do can you say we need improvement at Shortstop?? Escobar was a top tier NL East shortstop. Not to mention he’s got the second best glove in the Majors this year.
Am I missing something?
by RainDelay on
Oct 9, 2008 11:49 AM EDT
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yes you are missing something
because escobar was dead last among nl east shortstops (where do you get top tier from?)
he was behind hanley (obviously), rollins (obviously), guzman, and reyes (obvoiusly).
here is the data if you think i’m wrong, but just by looking at those names, how can you even say top tier nl east shortstop.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=314858
by son.of.sourman on
Oct 9, 2008 4:36 PM EDT
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Oi..
..first off, I hate VORP – it’s becoming very outdated and I stay away from that particular metric. It doesn’t take defense into account and that’s where Escobar shines and guys like Guzman, Reyes and HanRam all fail.
Escobar was only second to Rollins in +/- this year. He’s a top 10 short stop in the National League. So I’m going to say that makes him pretty good especially with the talent at SS in the NL, not to mention the NL East.
by RainDelay on
Oct 9, 2008 5:36 PM EDT
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your comments are problematic
for several reasons:
1. I think a lot of people would disagree with you about VORP becoming outdated. Most baseball statisticians I read still refer to it, although yes, it is important to look at measures of defense as well.
2. The difference in defense between Rollins and Escobar isn’t that great, and you could make that argument for Ramirez as well.
3. The difference in offense is great as Rollins, Ramirez, and Reyes are some of the best hitting shortstops of their generation.
4. Can you honestly tell me that you’d rather have Escobar than Rolilns, Reyes and Ramirez?
5. Your original statement was “Escobar was a top tier NL East shortstop.” You never really addressed this: how can this be true in a division with Rollins, Reyes, Ramirez, and Guzman? Even factoring in defense, he’s middle of the pack among these guys at best.
by son.of.sourman on
Oct 10, 2008 1:20 AM EDT
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Yeah, he’s not top tier, but he was statistically (batting+fielding) the fifth best shortstop in the NL, below the Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins, and Hardy tier, but ahead of Guzman.
NL Shortstops by RAR (BRAR+FRAR derived from +/- data)
1. Ramirez 104 (70, 34)
2. Reyes 87 (55, 32)
3. Rollins 78 (35, 43)
4. Hardy 74 (33, 41)
5. Escobar 66 (24, 42)
6. Guzman 62 (23, 39)
7. Drew 61 (30, 31)
by 17843 on
Oct 9, 2008 7:13 PM EDT
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i play the quote is “you play to win the game”
Herman Edwards
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Oct 8, 2008 9:20 PM EDT
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no forgive me
i do think finances is an issue for a team that’s payroll usually tops out at about half what the bosox and yankees pay. not that that’s necessarily a bad thing, but payroll will be an issue for this team.
I’m just worried that if you try to both rebuild and gear up for a championship team, you end up doing both poorly, and remain a middling team for the extended future. It’s a balancing act that is hard for even the best GMs in baseball. And while many teams pull this off by just eeking their way into the playoffs (brewers come to mind), the Braves have done that so many times, I think the expectations are just higher.
by son.of.sourman on
Oct 8, 2008 11:09 PM EDT
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Yeah i agree about using some of the money to pay to guys in the draft and get guys that in years past we couldn’t afford. Why not spend $10 million to $13 million on the 2009 draft? I realize we have a seperate payroll for the draft but we can save some of that money that we have now to combine it with the money that we have seperately for the draft. The Red Sox spent about $10 million or close to it, hell even the Royals were big spenders in the draft this year. Moore is smart and knows how to win and the Royals will be challenging for the Central in 2 to 3 years. If Wren spends the money wisely then we will be in good shape for the future but if he spends it carelessly then we might be in a mess by the time the young guys are ready and there blocked by expensive guys that we cant get rid of and eats too much salary not to play and guys that we developed that need to be resigned leaves for free agency because we have no money. We dont wont that to happen.
Im really in favor of signing Dunn. The guy can hit, not that good in LF but serviceable about the same for Burrell neither one are very good in LF defensively. I would like to see us sign Dunn for 3-4 years 3 years preferably for $15 million a year. Yes he strikes out alot but we need a guy like him in the middle of our lineup and if we had to pay him $60 million over 4 years. Not awful, he should still produce good in those 4 years.
I would like for us to sign Lowe also. Hopefull we can sign Lowe for 3 years, no way i go past 3 years no way. Maybe pay him $17 million a year would prefer less but there will be alot of teams tryin to get him. $51 million over 3 years for Lowe. Thats $32 million right there. Hopefully we dont spend the rest and save some to put on the draft to get guys we normally dont get.
Then try to sign somebody like Byrd, or trade for Sanchez of the Giants or somethin like that. Nothin huge, nothin small, somethin in between. It would be good to resign Ohman also, maybe at $3.5 million a year for 3 years. $10.5 million for 3 years. More than likely another team would outbid this but i would not be for payin more than that for a middle reliever. but if that gets it done then thats $35.5 million we spent. Ok then resign Norton, he was a very very very good pinch hitter for us this year and we need to resign him if we do all these other moves then we need to get this done. $800 thousand to $1.5 million a year. Probably $1 million a year for 2 years. Thats $36.5 million spent and then if we sign a guy like Byrd or trade for a guy like Sanchez or somebody like that then just say $3 million at maximum. ok thats $39.5 million to $40 million spent. We have $5 million left if its really true that we have $45 million to spend this offseason. We should use that to get guys in the draft that we normally dont go after. If do all of this then why cant we compete next season? Its not like the Phillies and Mets are great teams. Good teams but we could be good also if we use the money wisely. NONE of these moves kills us over 4 years. If a move we make does not work out as expected then they are gone under 5 years. And Dunn is the only guy signed for 4 years.
But of course its real easy for me to sit here and type this, its gonna be REALLY hard to convince these guys to sign here and get them for 4 years and under especially with alot of other teams after them. Im glad im not the GM of the Braves.
braves#1
by rockybull on
Oct 8, 2008 12:21 AM EDT
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Seriously...
I’ve held all along that, to get Jake, it’ll cost us big time. Bedard and Haren, both similar to but probably less valuable than Peavy, commanded five prospects/players in return. I think that if we can get them to take Schafer, Lillibridge, B. Jones and two pitching prospects not named Hanson, we have to make that deal. Looking at the Tex package now, I see one guy I wish we had back (Feliz) and a bunch of question marks. In this trade, we’d be getting an ace still in the likely prime of his career, at a below-market price for 3-4 years.
This would not be the only move for us this offseason, either. We could easily afford a Derek Lowe, a Burrell/Dunn and some cheaper vets (Hampton, Glavine/Smoltz, Ohman, etc.)
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on
Oct 8, 2008 12:24 AM EDT
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yes we would definately have to make that deal RIGHT away if they would take that package. But odds are they wont accept that package. I really cannot see the Padres trading Peavy without either Heyward or Hanson in the deal, i really believe one of them would have to be in the deal. And heck they may even want Hanson, Schafer or Gorkys and then KJ and more. Im fine with trading Hanson, i like him but people have got to realize that there are ALOT of real good prospect pitchers that are HIGHLY regarded prospects and do ABSOLUTELY NOTHIN in the majors. Either because of injury or non producing. Thats why i dont understand why people say no way we should trade Hanson in a deal for Peavy. hahahahha one guy is a prospect at AA and ONE guy will be i think 28 years old next season AND has a Cy Young award. Its sooooooo comical. Its fine if people say i dont wanna trade sooooo much for Peavy, thats fine. But to sit there and say Hanson in UNTOUCHABLE even for Peavy is ludacris.
braves#1
by rockybull on
Oct 8, 2008 12:35 AM EDT
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Not quite. AA pitchers, even ones with three plus pitches, do bust at a pretty high rate, but when they don’t you can end up with a pretty valuable pitcher. Peavy is a stud pitcher, one of the best in baseball, but the injury concerns and age have to play into your decision making. What shape will he be in physically in even two years? How valuable will the four years we would control him be?
The price for Peavy will be astronomical though. He’s under contract for as many as five more seasons – likely the five best remaining seasons of his career – and has established himself as a guy who can deliver 200 IP and a 3.00-3.25 ERA. In short, he’s dominant and controlled for a long time. Lesser pitchers like Haren and Bedard, with less time remaining on their contracts, were traded for 5-6 player packages with major league ready players involved. The package sent to the Padres would have both depth and impact major league ready talent. There comes a point when trading all that talent for one player becomes counter-productive. Even if Peavy is a 50 win player for the next five years, there’s a decent chance a package traded away will both equal that value AND do it for 10s of millions cheaper.
by 17843 on
Oct 8, 2008 1:30 AM EDT
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Did you actually write that?
First off, Wins are a completely BS stat. They are entirely dependent on your team scorring runs for you.
Second, in your scenario, how is it you believe one of the best pitchers in baseball is only a 10 game winner per year (under the assumption he is on a good team)?
by scstrato on
Oct 8, 2008 9:15 AM EDT
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I think he’s talking in terms of VORP or some other measure of “wins,” not Wins in the traditional Win-Loss sense. For example, I believe that 10.0 measures of VORP are equal to one win, so Peavy would achieve a 50.0 VORP every season for those 5 seasons, which isn’t unreasonable at all.
by drdonkeypunch on
Oct 8, 2008 11:46 AM EDT
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Wins as a measure of value, not the traditional stat.
by 17843 on
Oct 8, 2008 2:43 PM EDT
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