Where We Stand: Roster, Payroll, Etc.
by ejruiz on Oct 6, 2008 4:36 AM EDT
92 comments
Now that we're in full offseason mode here (I hate not watching our Braves play October baseball) I figured I'd post a little conversation starter. Most of us are well aware of the key aspects of our team for now (we have $40M+ to spend and we need two frontline staters and a slugging outfielder) but I thought I'd flesh it out a bit more. With that in mind, here's a little spreadsheet I've been working on:
| Player Name | Pos. | 2009 Salary |
| Line-up | ||
| Gregor Blanco | CF | 400,000 |
| Yunel Escobar | SS | 450,000 |
| Chipper Jones | 3B | 11,000,000 |
| Brian McCann | C | 3,500,000 |
| Kelly Johnson | 2B | Arbitration |
| Casey Kotchman | 1B | Arbitration |
| Brandon Jones | LF | 400,000 |
| Jeff Francouer | RF | Arbitration |
| Bench | ||
| Clint Sammons | C | 400,000 |
| Martin Prado | IF | 400,000 |
| Matt Diaz | IF/OF | Arbitration |
| Josh Anderson | OF | 400,000 |
| Omar Infante | UTIL | Arbitration |
| Rotation | ||
| Jair Jurrjens | SP | 400,000 |
| Jorge Campillo | SP | 400,000 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | SP | 400,000 |
| Charlie Morton | SP | 400,000 |
| James Parr | SP | 400,000 |
| Bullpen | ||
| Mike Gonzalez | RP | Arbitration |
| Rafael Soriano | RP | 6,100,000 |
| Phil Stockman | RP | 400,000 |
| Blaine Boyer | RP | 400,000 |
| Manny Acosta | RP | 400,000 |
| Buddy Carlyle | RP | 400,000 |
| Jeff Bennett | RP | 400,000 |
| Injured | ||
| Tim Hudson | SP | 13,000,000 |
| Peter Moylan | RP | 450,000 |
| Guaranteed | ALL | 33,600,000 |
| Pending Options | ALL | 0 |
| Arbitration | ALL | ?????????? |
| Renewed | ALL | 6,900,000 |
| Total | ALL | 40,500,000 |
I apologize for some formating irregularites, but I believe it is understandable still. And now, a few thoughts about the above. That's about the line-up we'll be sporting, with the notable change of a new power-hitting OF replacing B. Jones and moving into the 5-hole. Matt Diaz will almost certainly be non-tendered, so he will likely have to be replaced on the bench. Two new frontline starters will make it so the final three youngsters listed in the rotation above will have to battle for the #5 spot. The bullpen needs a lefty and either Bennett or Carlyle will likely be pushed out there. If arbitration costs us a combined $10M (I think that's fair) we'll still have significantly over $40M to spend for new acquisitions. With that said, now on to my hopes for the offseason.
We cannot afford to splurge on C.C. Sabathia and expect to fill our two other voids with top-notch talent. I think the way to go is signing someone like Derek Lowe and either Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell. As for the other starter, I have to believe we'll look for one in a trade. I'd be fine giving up something considerable (Hanson, Schafer/Hernandez, Freeman/Flowers, Lillibridge and/or Brandon Jones) for a guy like Jake Peavy or Matt Cain; remember, those guys aren't getting dealt unless their respective teams are blown away by the offer and my proposal is equivalent to what the A's got for Haren, which is a fair measuring stick . I think we may be in the market for someone else under the radar, so we shouldn't freak out if you're not into moving that much of our farm.
Well, I really just want to get some more conversation on the offseason going and I think I've put enough out there for now. I look forward to the comments and, as always, go Braves!
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The more I think about it...
The more I’m in favor of going balls to the wall in getting Jake Peavy, as long as it doesn’t include both Heyward and Hanson. I would very much not want to give up Heyward, but considering what we’re getting, I wouldn’t dismiss the idea of sending him in the package. Matt Cain I wouldn’t, but Peavy I would.
What I don’t want to do is sign someone with injury problems. Since we’ve been so snakebitten the past couple of years, durability is a plus-plus consideration for me. That means no Sheets and no Burnett, and I would give Dempster a heavy pause in bringing in (if we can even lure him away from the Cubs). Now don’t get me wrong on this issue; I’m all for bringing Smoltz and Glavine back. But the FA that we bring in we’re going to rely on, so that lends a premium to a guy like Lowe or Sabathia.
That being said, I say we kick the tires on Sabathia. Float a 5/110 his way and see if he bites. If not (and I suspect that he wouldn’t), then offer Lowe 3/48. I’m hoping that it doesn’t take the 4th year to get Lowe, but I forsee that it will; if that’s the case then I would ponder the options of signing Dempster, Burnett, and Sheets (in that order).
As for our outfield situation, I guess I would try to sign Burrell, Dunn, or Rivera (again, in that order), but only if for 4 years or less (5 if Dunn, since he’s 28). If we can’t get those guys at a reasonable price, I’ve been a big supporter of us going out and trading for Magglio, especially if we can pick him up at salary dump prices (aka no top 5 prospects).
(Warning, rosterbation ahead.)
So lets say we trade for Peavy (11M, +1M compensation for waiving the NTC = +12MM)
Sign Burrell @ 4/70MM (~16.5MM, not including backloading)
Resign Smoltz @ 1/5M, + escalators up to 10MM (+7.5MM average)
Resign Ohman @ 2/8 or 3/10 (~$4MMish)
That comes out to about and around $40MM, which will leave us a few million to go out and get a bullpen arm (bring back Juan Cruz?), a vet bench player, or resign Glavine if we’re so inclined. That’ll leave us wiiiiiith:
Lineup:
CF – Gregor Blanco
SS – Yunel Escobar
3B – Chipper Jones
LF – Pat Burrell
C – Brian McCann
1B – Casey Kotchman
RF – Jeff Francoeur
2B – Kelly Johnson
SP – Jake Peavy
SP – John Smoltz
SP – Jair Jurrjens
SP – Two of Campillo, Morton, Reyes, Parr, James, etc.
RP – Mike Gonzalez
RP – Will Ohman
RP – Rafael Soriano
RP – Rest of the Bullpen
The rotation is righty heavy which could be a concern. But I think we can compete with this roster next year. It just all hinges on how much we’d actually have to give up for Peavy (and if they actually let him go).
by soup du jour on Oct 6, 2008 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Smoltz..
..returns it’s not going to be in the rotation. I’m pretty sure and would put money that he’ll be in the bullpen for next year.
by RainDelay on Oct 6, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I wouldn’t say it’s gospel. Yeah, sure, its more likely that IF he’s going to return it will be in the bullpen. I’m highly anticipating his checkout of his shoulder this offseason to see if he’s fit for pitching.
by soup du jour on Oct 6, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And really..
…I’d take Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett before Peavy. But that’s more of a personal preference than anything.
by RainDelay on Oct 6, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love this stuff
Pitching: As much as I would love to see Peavy in a Braves uniform, I just don’t see it happening. We certainly have the prospects to get it done I just think Wren will focus more on someone who is less costly. Having said that, Lowe is at the top of my list – quality pitcher at just the right price. After him I don’t see us making a big splash. I think we’ll try and trade for a Greinke type pitcher (young, under control for several years) and if that doesn’t happen then the Randy Wolf types come into play. My prediction – we sign Lowe and trade for one more (Greinke, Sanchez, ??? someone under the radar).
Bat: The usual names come to mind; Burrell, Dunn, Holliday. I don’t see it though. The most likely IMO is Burrell but I have a sneaky feeling he stays in Philly. I’ve also seen Raul Ibanez and Juan Rivera’s names floating about. I’m all for J Rivera but I understand most of you here are against that one. Outside of those it looks like we’d have to look at the trade market. My prediction – a trade for Magglio Ordonez.
Summary:
- Sign Lowe to a 3 yr / 45 mil deal with a 4th yr option (13 mil ’09, 15 mil ’10, 17 mil ’11, 15 mil ’12 with 4 mil buyout)
- Trade for Ordonez (18 mil ’09, 15 mil option ’10 w/ 3 mil buyout, 15 mil ’11 no buyout)
- Trade for another SP (Cain, Greinke, Sanchez, others…) w/ Salary less than 1 mil
Thats 32 mil spent for ’09 giving us at least 8 mil, possibly 13 mil, to spend on other projects (Smoltz, bullpen, Chipper extension, etc…)
CF – Blanco
SS – Escobar
3B – Chipper / Infante
LF – Magglio
C – McCann
RF – Francoeur (you know Bobby will have him here)
1B – Kotchman
2B – Prado (I think Johnson is included in one of the trades)
SP – Lowe
SP – young gun (Cain, Greinke, Sanchez …)
SP – Jurrjens
SP – Campillo/Hampton (I can’t believe I actually typed his name here)
SP – Reyes, Morton, Parr, James
Long – Carlyle
Specialist – Bennett
Loogy – don’t we have better/cheaper options than Ohman?
7th – Soriano (I want this to be Gonzo with Sori in the closer role, but you know Bobby)
8th – Gonzalez
9th – Smoltz
by scstrato on Oct 6, 2008 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I considered your approach...
And it might be viable, depending on what the Tigers demand for Magglio. But if their demands are great, then I don’t see us trading for both him and a cheap pitcher as well, as it would gut our farm system.
I also think we’re the odds on favorites for signing Ohman. Bobby is his #1 fan, so he’ll push for him, and I think he’s an option that we can use as both a LOOGY and a 7th/8th inning guy. Then numbers I just threw out there, but its what Mahay got.
by soup du jour on Oct 6, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Valid points
I agree that Mag’s could be priced right out of our range, but I’m hoping Detroit is looking to dump salary and will take what they can get (it’s a longshot).
As for Ohman, I’m all for keeping him. I’ve always liked the guy but with his salary likely to escalate to 6/7+ mil, I think that’s a little expensive for a Loogy. Now if Bobby would use him in a different role (similar to gonzalez) I’m all for it, but we’re talkin’ bout Bobby here.
by scstrato on Oct 6, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how willing Detroit will be to trade with Atlanta after how last years Renteria deal turned out for them. I guess it could make them more willing to to a deal though, thinking “we’ll get ’em back for last year!”
by Rhyno18 on Oct 6, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've often wondered about this
Honestly, how can Detroit hold it against the Braves for Renteria’s decline. No one predicted he’d be that bad. But on the flip side, they gave up a sh.. ton to get him.
by scstrato on Oct 6, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm facing it
this team is most likely not going to be a playoff team next year. Wasn’t even close this year, and was only flirting with 500 when tex was still with the team, maybe the best hitting 1b in baseball.
if we can agree on that, i don’t see the point in signing an aging derek lowe, who will likely be done/dead when the braves have the pieces in place to make a serious run. And that goes for Smotlz too.
What I’d like to see the braves do is a little billy beane shit and trade chipper to a AL team looking for a DH. He’s not in the long term picture, his body is breaking down, and i don’t think the braves need him at half capacity, half the year, the bad half often coming during the time a pennant race would normally take place.
SOS
by son.of.sourman on Oct 6, 2008 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i understand what ur syaing as far as baseball sense thats the move… But i never want to see Chipper traded.
But i do agree i dont see the sense in trading for Lowe, lets wait and see who is on the market next season and maybe get one of those guys.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Oct 6, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arbitration
Can Francouer make less than he did this year? Wonder if Huddy is insured.
by TradeAndruw on Oct 6, 2008 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He shouldnt make more than a AAA salary…cause that where he belongs until he can prove he belongs back in the majors again.
by jjcollins on Oct 6, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching
Does someone know something i don’t? Why would the Padres trade Peavy? Why would the Giants trade Cain for prospects? I have heard Prince Fielder and Weeks to the Giants for Cain and prospects. However, that woudl be trading an established elite offensive player and one with great upside …not prospects. The giants wouldn’t want prospects they need major league ready offense.
I have heard Lowe mentioned and I agree that he is the type of person the braves need. They could really use a steady, reliable pitcher like Lowe. He may not be a true “#1” but he is good 1A or #2. He would help alot.
I don’t want anything to do with Burrell, Ibanez, or Dunn. We need either a legit #3 hitter or a legit #4 hitter. I don’t think any of these players fit that bill. I think the Braves are really limited in who they can go after due to their current configuration. They have a 1B who hits like a 2B. They have a RF who was AWFUL this year, but unless he is traded, they have to give him the RF job. They are set at SS, 2B, C, and 3B. They can make things work in CF. That leaves them only with a productive bat in LF. That really limits the options. Bay would have been a good fit but that didn’t work. I just don’t see a fair priced OF option right now. I think that they may have to really shake up the line up in order to provide them some pieces and flexibility. I could see the following people being moved:
Johnson (I think his value is percieved to be higher outside of ATL then it is in ATL)
Kotchman (I don’t think he provides much offense for 1B. Heck..I think KJ’s numbers were better at 2B then Kotchman. However, his average and defense could have really good value with a team like KC that desperately needs a 1B.)
Infante (although I think his ability to be a contributor at 3B, SS, 2B, and CF make him too valuable to trade)
Prado (He proved to be a legit player. Does anyone else see a little Palanco in his game? I think he could turn into that kind of player)
Franceour (Maybe someone wants him)
On a side note…what has happened to 1B as a position. It used to be a really deep position. Now 1/2 the teams don’t have someone solid at 1B and many of the teams that do have their 1B set don’t really have stars. A lot of teams have a Jacobs or a Shealy, or LaRoche, Barton etc. It is harder to go get an offensive 1B to plug in and produce.
by calbers on Oct 6, 2008 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Peavy
He’ll be traded if the Padres are bowled over. Peavy’s almost at maximum value right now, and the Padres are in a well publicized money crunch. Their team is garbage right now, and if they decide to go into full rebuilding mode then Peavy is definitely the chip to use. I do agree, however, that Cain will not be traded. But Peavy makes double digit millions on a team who needs the money and is going nowhere right now. Not saying its likely, but I’m saying he’s someone who could be had for the right price.
And I disagree with you on the point of Burrell or Dunn are not prototypical #4 hitters. #3 they’re not, but we’ve got that in Chipper. We need a masher between him and McCann and I think they fit the bill just fine. Magglio would be nice (although his power numbers have declined over the past year or so), but I don’t see anyone available better than those two.
by soup du jour on Oct 6, 2008 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. I strongly question Prado hitting over 300 for a full season. If he can, he can be Polanco without Polanco’s stellar defense.
2. Expect regression to the mean from both Kotchman and Francoeur. Kotchman couldn’t hit in Atlanta, but his BB% recovered to where it was in 2007. If he can walk in 10% of his PAs, hit .290, and maintain his power output he’ll be adequate for first base. Remember that he brings a lot to the table defensively – about 10 runs saved beyond an average first baseman over a full season. That helps his bat play.
Francoeur’s preformance was so bad it’s unlikely to be replicated. I think we can temper expectations a bit, but remember that his peripherals showed no change. He struck out less, walked the same amount, hit less HRs per fly-ball, and posted a BABIP way out of line with his LD%. In short, I’d be surprised if Francoeur doesn’t put up a 280/330/450 line next year. That’s nothing special out of right field, but if he can have an average defensive season he won’t be a drag like he was this year (when he was quite literally worth nothing to the team).
I do agree that Infante should be traded. Great utilitymen are worthless to teams that won’t be in contention. I’m not sure what he could fetch, but it and the $1.5 million we’d save would surely be worth more than he contributions to the team in 2009.
I also disagree that we need a legit #3/4 hitter. We have two such players already under contract.
by 17843 on Oct 6, 2008 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more thought
I just had a thought pop into my head. What about a trade with the D-Backs for a LF. Kelly Johnson for Conor Jackson? I need to sit down and think about this one a while before I fully endorse it, but I thought I’d put it out there for discussion. With Byrnes returning, Hudson likely departing and Tracy able to takeover 1B – I would think the D-Backs would at least entertain the thought. Granted Jackson is no Burrell or Dunn, but he does put the ball in play, walks a ton, and he certainly mashes lefties (one of our biggest holes).
What do you guys think? Pros: He fills needs and fits nicely into our budget. Cons: lack of pure power, defense is a question (not that Dunn and Burrell are any better defensively).
by scstrato on Oct 6, 2008 7:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
um, they wouldn’t trade conor jackson for tex. what makes you think they’d trade him for johnson?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 6, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Not trying to be smart here, just trying to prove a point.
1. None of us, as far as I know, are a part of the Braves or D-Backs front office. So we don’t REALLY know what or who was offered for Tex (if anything).
2. The rumor bandied about in the media was Conor Jackson plus a player for Tex. I don’t remember reading that Jackson was offered straight up for him and I’m quite sure Wren would have said no to that.
3. Last year the D-Backs didn’t have a “hole” that needed filling. Tex was a “short-timer” upgrade over Jackson, whom they control for many more years. This year they do have a “hole”, and a big one at that with Hudson leaving, and they would be offered a comparable player who they can also control, fairly cheaply, for several more years.
Back to your point though, you have a point in that Jackson is very valuable to them. And quite frankly i’m not sure I would do this deal if I were Frank Wren. Like I said, I was merely throwing it out there for discussion.
by scstrato on Oct 6, 2008 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
A. We all know the Braves were asking for Conor Jackson in return for Tex and the Douchebacks said noway. They would only give up Chad Tracy and maybe another prospect.
2. If they wouldn’t trade him for Tex, there is no way in hell they will trade him for Kelly. Now if it is Kelly and a top prospect and mid level prospect then maybe, but not KJ straight up.
Now, I don’t mean to come down on you so hard, but I get tired of seeing rediculous trades proposed where the Braves give up less in terms of value. The Dbacks are a fairly smart organization and they won’t lose Jackson for someone of lower value.
by JFP on Oct 7, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m curious why you think Jackson has more value than Johnson? I’m right there with you on some of the ridiculous trade suggestions we see, but I disagree on this one. As I explained above, the D-Backs have a huge hole at 2B and have no internal options to fill it. They do have bulk in the OF and 1B and can afford to move one of those guys. The Braves need a LF and Jackson has proven to be able to play there (albeit below average defensively).
Now, considering Johnson has similar power, similar OB skills and is better defensively; how is he not as valuable as Jackson. Let’s remove the names, which is more valueable to you a 2B who hits .270/.280 with .360/.380 OBP and 15/20 HR’s or a 1B/LF who hits .270/.280 with .360/.380 OBP and 15/20 HR’s. Considering position scarcity I’ll take the 2B every day of the week.
Lastly, WE don’t know who was offered in the Tex to D-Backs rumors. What you’re stating is what you read in the papers or on the internet and is nothing short of speculation. Even so, again as I said above, the offer was Jackson plus for two months of Teixeira. Why would they do that? I wouldn’t. But we’re not talking about a two month rental, we’re talking about a damned good 2B who is controlled contractually just as long (if not longer) than Jackson. This is a completely different scenario and, yes i’m speculating, but I think the D-Backs would at least consider it.
by scstrato on Oct 7, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a thought
and I know i will get ripped for suggesting this but what about getting Juan Pierre from the Dodgers. We could get him for one marginal prospect and probably get the dodgers to eat most of his salary. He could play left and would set up runs for the other hitters in the order. The average is fine he hit .283 and stole 40 bases.
by jack dein on Oct 6, 2008 8:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i dont want to mash or be malicious, but the fact is our team doenst attempt to steal a lot of bases… even when furcal was here (he only had two 30+ steals seasons, when he clearly had 40or 50+ potential). So Pierre’s biggest asset wouldnt be used in Atl. Also, blanco and anderson are very similar to pierre, the difference is that pierre doesnt strike out. He doesnt walk very much. However, Pierre’s avg is below avg, and my arm may be better than his… (if nothing else its close). I think Blanco is better for Atl because of his advantage over pierre defensively. Also, if we wanted a guy with plus plus speed, we’d play Anderson. Pierre would cost us more than both these guys, even if the Dodgers ate much of his contract (he made 8M in 08, i dont know what his salary for 09 is but i assume its similiar)
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Oct 6, 2008 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i meant his defense is below avg, not his avg
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Oct 6, 2008 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Swo12bv hit it on the head.
Pierre gives us nothing over what Blanco and Anderson provide.
by soup du jour on Oct 6, 2008 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OH FUCKING GOD NO
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 6, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least
I’m throwing out ideas. Whenever you guys are asked who will be playing left field next year the only answer i get is pat burrell. You seem to forget that there are 29 other teams that could be bidding for him. I honestly don’t think burrell is with us next year, unless we overpay for him. I would say we sign Lowe, Wolf, and trade for an outfielder.
by jack dein on Oct 6, 2008 10:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but the market will be hotter for Derek Lowe and Randy Wolf will certainly have his fair share of suitors. God knows any free agent does these days. I’ve yet to pencil Burrell into any lineups and would be surprised if he (or any other big name free agent) is playing left field for the Braves next year. My gut says they let Brandon Jones compete with some minor free agent, possibly platoon. I think if they’re not capable of signing Dunn or Burrell they should play what we have, see if Jones is going to hit enough, see if Schafer is ready at mid-season, and play for 2010. There’s no sense in trading our young ML ready talent for older players when it will be ripe in 2010.
For what seems like the millionth time, our best chance to contend in the next two years absolutely is not next year.
by 17843 on Oct 6, 2008 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
with you
I don’t think that we will contend next year unless we trade away everything and go for broke. I don’t think we will. Our pitching is bad. Jurrjens is good but not a staff ace. The bullpen is good but can it stay healthy. McCann is great, Kotchman is average, Johnson is average, Escobar could be above average, but the outfield is a mess, Blanco and Anderson are about the same player, and Francouer can’t be this bad next year. Oh and just another point to make a point not to sign burrell he and andruw are almost the same player. They strikeout a lot and ground into a lot of double plays and burrell plays worse defense.
by jack dein on Oct 6, 2008 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burrell produced at a .250/.367/.507 clip this season. Andruw produced at a .158/.256/.249 clip and was injured. Their 2007 seasons aren’t nearly comparable unless you want to embarass Andruw.
by 17843 on Oct 6, 2008 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
careers
for their careers andruw has average 31 homeruns, 93 rbi, .263 avg., 13 GIDP, 60 BB, 107 K., 140 hits, 28 doubles and i took out this season for him. Burrell has averaged 28 homeruns, 92 rbi, .257 avg., 12 GIDP, 87 BB, 141 K, 130 hits, 28 doubles with worse defense. And yes this is a statement to stay away from Burrell. If we do sign him we can bat him 5th and Francouer 7th and kill 2 innings in a row.
by jack dein on Oct 6, 2008 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
burrell OBP: .367, SLG: .485
jones OBP: .339, SLG: .489
you kinda left out those 30 points of OBP. thats uh, really huge.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 6, 2008 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus, pat burrell isn’t a whiny fucking prima donna headcase.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 6, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Their career averages are kind of irrelevant when you consider Burrell has turned in two very productive seasons in his thirties and Andruw has turned in zero productive seasons in his thirties.
by 17843 on Oct 7, 2008 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
…all 30 teams want pat burrell? no times a million. and FWIW, i’ve been driving the adam dunn bandwagon since june.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 6, 2008 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i’m just saying that from the other posts here in the last few weeks that the majority of people seem to want burrell. And you missread i didn’t say that all 30 will want pat burrell, i said that 29 other teams could want pat burrell. you do raise a good point on the obp though i did miss that. and you are also right that burrell is a lot more level headed than andruw. but the fact is that we suffered through andruw’s poor 2007 at bats and burrell will be some of the same.
by jack dein on Oct 7, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not true.
Magglio Ordonez being the other key player. Juan Rivera as a less than good alternative. We just shot down the Pierre idea because it doesn’t upgrade our team at all, since we have both Anderson and Blanco providing the exact same services.
And unlike 17843 I think we make a move, rather than letting Jones/platoon play. I don’t think Wren will be content with what we have, nor do I think he should be.
Options:
Pat Burrell – FA
Adam Dunn – FA
Magglio Ordonez – Trade, Tigers are looking to dump payroll.
Juan Rivera – FA
Josh Willingham – doubt they trade within the division, but he’s arb eligible.
Randy Winn – Please God no.
Aubrey Huff – See Randy Winn. Plus, can he even play the OF anymore?
Rocco Baldelli – An interesting candidate if he hits FA, but I’d lean towards no simply because we can’t count on him being healthy
Matt Holliday – No way would I give up a king’s ransom for him for one year.
Jason Bay – See Holliday, plus Boston would be foolish to trade him.
by soup du jour on Oct 7, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baldelli would be a great pick-up assuming his medicals were in line.
by 17843 on Oct 7, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
okay
out of those options we can rule out Winn, Bay, Holliday, Huff, i rule out Baldelli because he has never proved that he can play a full season, and i rule out ordonez because i don’t think the braves want to take on his salary, willingham is doubtfull for the reason stated above. That leaves us with Burrell who i don’t want, Dunn who has plus power and walks and strikes out a lot, and rivera who is not a proven player. I think we need to look outside the box for a left fielder. Maybe the Dodgers or A’s who have a lot of outfielders would trade.
by jack dein on Oct 7, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i’d gladly welcome baldelli aboard. he’s got his condition under control and is playing league average ball. shouldn’t take a lot to sign him and the upside is huge
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 7, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would like to have baldelli to but it would most likely have to be through a trade. He is signed threw 2011, if the Rays pick up his options. I haven’t heard if they picked up the one for 2009 yet or not but they probably will it is for $6 mil. with a $4 mil. buyout. That being said they are stacked in the outfield and would part with him. The only question is what would they want. They don’t need a 2nd baseman which rules out johnson. I just can’t find a good trade with them we just don’t match up well.
by jack dein on Oct 7, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The rays already declined his option for next year which makes him a Free agent.
by gopherbroke on Oct 7, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what he said. and i doubt baldelli would be expecting a salary along the lines of what he made this year either.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 7, 2008 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One other thing
I just read that the bidding for C.C. could go to 6 yrs. $144 mil. if it goes that high and it could if 2 teams get into a bidding war than it will increase how much everyone behind him gets. Nobody is going to sign before him except maybe Dempster who has said he would like to remain a cub. The loser for C.C. will raise the price for Burnett if he becomes available and Sheets and then Lowe. It might end up that 2 pitchers is all we can squeeze into the budget.
by jack dein on Oct 6, 2008 10:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thats not “what” it could go to, thats what bradbury thinks is fair market value. theres no chance in hell that anyone is going to offer that, its borderline insanity.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 6, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats what everyone thought when Zito got 7 yrs. $125 mil.
by jack dein on Oct 6, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
huuuuuuuuge difference between 18 mill a year and 24 mill a year.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 7, 2008 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not when...
you’re certified insane and your team starts with “New York…”
by BBFAN46 on Oct 7, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Delmon YOung
There is a post on MLBTR that suggests that Delmon Young will be available. I am not a huge fan as he reminds me a lot of Frenchy (Low Walks, etc.) but he had a pretty down year and could possibly be had on the cheap. He has always been one of those huge upside players.
by gopherbroke on Oct 7, 2008 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
his slash stats improved nearly across the board last year. but that just made him league average. pass
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 7, 2008 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Pat Burrell
Please not another streaky outfielder, heavens.
by iLukeisamazing on Oct 7, 2008 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Please prove why it’s a negative that hits come in bunches rather than a steady stream.
by 17843 on Oct 7, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
another idea
I read that the indians are looking for second baseman. There aren’t many free agent second baseman available and they are a small market team what about turning Kelly Johnson into Jeremy Sowers or Anthony Reyes or Ben Francisco.
by jack dein on Oct 7, 2008 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Count me as one of the people who don’t want to trade Kelly Johnson. I just don’t think that Prado will be able to produce for an entire season, much like Matty Diaz this year. While the Indians might be a good team to look into trading, I would be remiss to ship away Johnson for one of those three.
by soup du jour on Oct 7, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don’t want to trade him either he’s always been a personal favorite of mine. But you have to give something to get something and he could get us something good.
by jack dein on Oct 7, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's true.
The Twins might be a good match for him, and we might be able to get someone like Blackburn, Slowey, or Baker. We’d probably have to add a bit, but it’s something I wouldn’t say no to if he could get us one of those young Twins starters (just say no to Boof, though).
by soup du jour on Oct 7, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cleveland appears to be content with ass-dribble cabrera at 2B, and he started hitting over the last month of the year.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 7, 2008 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
After the Tex deal...
I’ve lost all my stomach for trading the farm for one big name in the hopes of winning this year. I don’t see the Braves as a contender next year – Chipper just doesn’t stay in the lineup enough to be counted on at this point and McCann, our only other impact bat, is a catcher and will have his fair share of days off due to the regular wear of playing that position. Even if we get a season along the lines of 2007 from Francouer, he’s still not that good a player. Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar are solid contributors but not guys you build a lineup around. In the rotation, Jurrjens is the only guy who I would count on to perform well in 2009 – Campillo, Hampton, Reyes, Morton, Parr, etc don’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of opposing hitters.
Now, going back to that Texieria deal – I don’t think it would have been a terrible deal if the Braves were willing to re-sign him to a deal after this year. Obviously, this was not the case. We’ve just not had a playoff caliber team for the last two years, and the club isn’t looking like one next year. It’s time for the Braves to rebuild, not waste talented young players on a last-ditch effort to give Bobby and Chipper a last shot at the postseason. Keep in mind, here’s what we gave up in that deal -
Elvis Andrus – 19 years old and in AA ball already, he swiped 47 bags this year while hitting .285. If he adds even a modest level of power to his game, he’ll a very valuable major league shortstop.
Matt Harrison – Not the most impressive year, but he’s still a capable guy that should stick as a major league pitcher in some capacity.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Splitting time in Texas, still young and improving
Neftali Feliz – This one hurts the most. Dominated A ball before moving up to AA and showing excellent stuff there too. All told, 153 strikeouts in 127 and a third innings this year.
It’s clear that giving up those players was absolutely not worth it. Tex stayed roughly a year, the team was still mediocre, and all we got was Kotchman and Marek. I wouldn’t give up Feliz for Kotchman and Marek at this point.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 9, 2008 1:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Amen brother...
maybe it’s the aching in my left big toe, but I have a feeling Frank is going to try to shake things up in the off season. I would not be surprised by anything that happens. I think there is a small handful of minor leaguers he will not part with, but everyone else is fair game. That said, I wouldn’t expect a multi-player swap for one big name; I hope they have learned their lesson on that one! Worse than swapping so much for an every day player would be to give that much for a once every fifth day player and then have him go down like, say, a Hampton.
by BBFAN46 on Oct 9, 2008 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A different take
The Teixeira deal was well worth it in my mind. We gave up a bunch of nothing and Feliz for a chance to win a world series. Granted it didn’t work out but it’s certainly not due to the fact we didn’t try.
Elvis Andrus – 19 yr old in AA who actually hit .295 (not .285) and had 54 SB’s (not 47). Yet his OBP was a very average and his BB/K ratio was worse than it was the year before (you like to see improvement from year to year, not regression). On top of the that his .367 slugging is unacceptable, though granted he is young for AA. Not much here for me to be excited about yet, I’ll reserve complete judgement for another year or two.
Matt Harrison – another Jo Jo Reyes? Pitched fair enough in the minors but was completely over matched in the majors, proving he’s not ready. Even still the minor league BA against is alarming.
Neftali Feliz – definitely one that got away, although he’s still a VERY long way off and a lot can happen in that time. Cannot argue with the numbers.
Jarros Saltalamacchia – Splitting time in Texas, still young and improving? I disagree, 74 K’s in 198 AB’s is not improvement, in fact it’s a significant step in the wrong direction, and I’m guessing he wasn’t allowed behind the plate much due to his defense which has many wondering if he can stay behind the plate.
Clear that is was absolutely not worth it for Teixeira? Please, if anything this deal should help show it IS worth trading prospects for proven veterans. I’ll give you that ALL of these guys are still young and have a chance to turn things around, but what IS VERY CLEAR is that NONE of them are even close to ready to perform in the Majors. AND I would add that NONE are even close to supplanting ANYONE on the Braves current roster – in other words they would all still be trolling around in the minors.
Prospects are exactly that, prospects. More times than not they WILL NOT live up to their hype. If you would look at things objectively instead of over focusing on the hype I’m sure you would come to see the same.
by scstrato on Oct 9, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m guessing he wasn’t allowed behind the plate much due to his defense which has many wondering if he can stay behind the plate.
Nope that wasn’t it at all, they were trying to placate Gerald Laird who thought he was entitled to the position and they were trying to showcase Laird for trade bait that never really panned out.
by RainDelay on Oct 9, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
I probably should have left that part out. Either way his lack of performance offensively (whether playing 1b or C) is a concern to say the least.
by scstrato on Oct 9, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
…Salty’s days behind the dish are numbered. Another former Braves prospect catcher Max Ramirez is going to end up passing Salty up.
by RainDelay on Oct 10, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not to mention taylor teagarden
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 11, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're missing the point
It’s not how the players performed in the ML, or whether the Braves have depth at a particular position. All 5 players would have had trade value to the Braves in their quest to get a good young pitcher like Peavy, Greinke, or Matt Cain. Young pitching is far more valuable than overpriced hitting. Furthermore, when JS pulled off the Great Desparation Move of 2007, hitting was NOT the problem. We had two capable starters and three batting practice-caliber ones. Instead, JS was so desparate to go out on top and preserve his legacy that he traded for Tex in the hope that the Braves could just outhit everyone else. Obviously, that strategy didn’t work (and almost never does). So, now this team has to be rebuilt, because JS was not patient enough to bide his time and address the true needs of his team.
by buzzdeadwax on Oct 9, 2008 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fairness to me, that did not appear to be the point of the original poster. Regardless, I completely agree those 5 pieces would have been better “spent” acquiring pitching. Though I’ll never agree acquiring Tex was a bad idea.
by scstrato on Oct 9, 2008 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree, sort of
I think it was a bad idea, but I don’t think it was necessarily a bad trade. What I mean is that it was probably a fair trade for both teams. The problem was that Tex or any other big bat was not really needed at the time. We needed pitching, but got more hitting instead. The result was that the winning % didn’t improve with Tex in the lineup. I think that proves what I’m saying to be true. But I don’t think I’ll be getting a cookie for (in my opinion) an accurate observation. Anyways, what’s done is done, and it doesn’t matter if the trade was good or bad. The reality is, we need more pitching and another good hitter, and we don’t have enough good prospects to acquire these players AND still have some organizational depth in case of injury or to make a mid-season trade.
by buzzdeadwax on Oct 10, 2008 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, more times than not, prospects don’t quite live up to the hype. The rub is that even if they don’t, they’re dirt cheap for their first three or so years in the bigs. Even if Feliz becomes, say, a 4th starter, he’s a 4th starter making 400k, not a 4th starter making money like, say, Mike Hampton. If Salty (whom I still believe in) becomes a league-average catcher, he’ll be a very inexpensive one and thus a very valuable one. Furthermore, how the hell was that deal worth it?
We gave up -
Feliz, Andrus, Harrison, Salty, and Beau Jones
We got –
1 season of Tex
Kotchman
Marek
Going forward, Kotchman looks like a cheap placeholder and Marek may be a good bullpen arm. Andrus and Feliz have such crazy upside that they have to be considered big losses to our system, and Salty is still young enough to come into his own as a big league player, albeit one who has little value to the Braves specifically because of McCann.
Like I said, maybe if we resigned Tex. Maybe even if we made a playoff push last year. But to get a year’s rental of Texiera for two of the highest upside players in our farm, one of whom had a major breakout season, was a desperate move that didn’t work.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 10, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had better not let...
Heyward, Schafer, or Hanson go. I think the chances are next to zero that Heyward is moved, but the other two I’m not so sure about.
If he pulls another Tex-like deal, I’m going to have to reserve the rights for firefrankwren.com…
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 9, 2008 9:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The worst thing about trading Schafer is that his defense is ready to play in the major leagues and be a 4-5 win player on defense right away. We’re not talking about a guy who’s bat needs to be really advanced to have value in the major leagues. Schafer could probably provide as much value as Blanco would in center field this season. If he even becomes a .270/.330/.420 hitter he’ll be a good center fielder.
by 17843 on Oct 9, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to agree
I like Schafer a lot and I think he could perform AT LEAST as good as Blanco or Anderson next year – and there’s a chance he could be significantly better. But as much as I like him I don’t see where he will be such a fantastic player that we can’t let him go in a trade.
As for Heyward, I like him even more than Schafer and I agree there is a chance he could become GREAT. But i’m not going to shed a tear if he’s included in a deal for a Peavy type pitcher. The “chance” he becomes great to me is less valueable than proven production because the chance is so small (even with “can’t miss” types – see Alex Gordon, although he did show improvement this year and I still hold out hope for him).
by scstrato on Oct 9, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gordon was also rushed to the big leagues and given a starting job on a silver platter when he clearly wasn’t ready yet. Same thing happened with Ryan Zimmerman in Washington. Each of those guys needed at least some time in AAA before getting a starting gig.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 10, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the same ryan zimmerman who was second in ROY voting?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 11, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same one...
he handled it relatively well, but when you’ve not even really tasted AAA ball and you’re just handed a big league job on a silver platter, I don’t think it’s a good idea.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 13, 2008 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
kinda like yunel escobar?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 14, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who would object
to having Raul Ibanez in left field next year. He is 36 but would not be that expensive. The power isn’t bad and he is consistent.
by jack dein on Oct 9, 2008 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If we can get him for spare parts, fine by me. If we have to give up a lot, he’s not an impact bat and his age concerns me.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 10, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would..
…he’s a horrible defender only good against right handers. Just not worth it IMHO, I’ve watched him for the last few years with the Mariners. His upside would be Designated Hitter – he had no business playing left field period – he’d make Greg Norton look like a gold glover.
by RainDelay on Oct 10, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no. a million times no. there are few things that would cause me to abandon this team, and that is one of them. fuck raul ibanez
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 11, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just for fun here's a nother one..
Hat tip to Lookout Landing for both.
by RainDelay on Oct 12, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trades scare me
I feel really good about the Braves future prospects and I am willing to sit through another season or two or maybe even three of mediocre baseball for the chance of another decade or pennants. I am fine with spending money in free agency or taking on a large contract by trading away middling minor league prospects, but please don’t trade away any of our top 10 prospects again to plug a hole in a bucket that has several more to plug. Let’s “stay the course” and come out in 2-3 years with a team that has dynasty written all over it.
by KC Ryan on Oct 11, 2008 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not trading scares me!
Here’s why!
2004
1. Jeff Francoeur, of (4 years later he’s THE worst RF in baseball)
2. Andy Marte, 3b (4 years later he’s THE worst 3B in baseball)
3. Brian McCann, c (Nice, a prospect who actual exceeded expectations)
4. Kyle Davies, rhp (still nothing)
5. Anthony Lerew, rhp (still nothing)
6. Jake Stevens, lhp (who the hell is this)
7. Luis Hernandez, ss (is this the Tony Pena clone playing in Baltimore?)
8. Kelly Johnson, of (very close to reaching expectations)
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c (heading downhill fast!)
10. Blaine Boyer, rhp (stuggling middle reliever)
Ten rookies produced 1 slightly better than average 2b and 1 elite catcher. 20% success ratio makes you really want to hold onto those rookies over proven veterans.
2005
1. Andy Marte, 3b (4 years later he’s THE worst 3B in baseball)
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c (heading downhill fast!)
3. Elvis Andrus, ss (still young, but nothing in his stats has me excited yet)
4. Yunel Escobar, ss (damn good SS, young and improving)
5. Anthony Lerew, rhp (still nothing)
6. Joey Devine, rhp (traded, did well with Oakland but want to see more next year)
7. Chuck James, lhp (can we cut him already)
8. Brandon Jones, of (Garrett Anderson clone, where the hell did that come from?)
9. Eric Campbell, 3b (not going to touch this one)
10. Beau Jones, lhp (well at least he made one list)
Ten rookies produced a decent reliever and a damned good shortstop. Again with the 20% success ratio.
2006
1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c (heading downhill fast!)
2. Elvis Andrus, ss (still young, but nothing in his stats has me excited yet)
3. Matt Harrison, lhp (avg minor league numbers, terrible in the majors)
4. Brandon Jones, of (4th/5th outfielder at best)
5. Van Pope, 3b (I know little about this guy except to say not an elite prospect)
6. Eric Campbell, 3b (not going to touch this one)
7. Scott Thorman, 1b/of (seriously, how’d he make this list)
8. Jo-Jo Reyes, lhp (uh, chuck james comes to mind)
9. Joey Devine, rhp (traded, did well with Oakland but want to see more next year)
10. Yunel Escobar, inf (damn good SS, young and improving)
Same results as above with Devine and Escobar the only two to show any promise in the majors.
No one from the ‘07 top ten made it to the majors outside of Brandon Jones whom I’ve already addressed and Jair Jurrjens whom we traded for. So I’ll finish up here.
Three years of top ten lists produced 21 unique players. Only 1 of which became an all-star/elite player (and he wasn’t one of the highly touted prospects), only 3 became full time major leaguers (including our elite guy) with 2 others getting to see some MLB time.
This doesn’t exactly disprove whether or not our current top 10 has any future elite players, but what it does do is prove that your theory on “staying the course” is pure lunacy. The likelihood of creating a dynasty by doing so has about a snowballs chance in hell of working. The way to go is to play the FA game when the FA pool permits (this year) and trade those “likely to not meet expectations” prospects (i’m referring to our top 10) for young proven studs who we can control for several years. This is what the Braves have done for years, including the 14 straight pennant years, and there’s no reason to move away from a proven strategy just because we’ve encountered some hard luck over the last few.
by scstrato on Oct 12, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
04 overall ranking: 4
05 overall ranking: 5
06 overall ranking: 7
if you can get an elite, proven player like mark teixeira, you do the deal.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 12, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, you don't
Not when you’ve got massive craters in your rotation and the offense is fine. Although you did say “like makr teixeira”, so I guess I agree with you, so long as it’s a true area of need.
by buzzdeadwax on Oct 13, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it WAS a huge area of need. i’d assume the braves were assuming that if they fixed the one gaping hole of death, that the pitching would fall into line and work itself out. it didn’t really work that way.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 13, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
have to agree with BigJoe here, if you remember prior to Tex, our 1B included Scott Thorman and Julio Franco (throw in Chris Woodward every once in a while). we had the worst production out of our first basemen in all of baseball… This wasnt just a hole it was a gigantic gaping whole
P.S. i mean no offense to Julio Franco… he is the coolest BAMF ever
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Oct 15, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
white sox fan here … we’re in need of a 2nd baseman with speed and can hit in either the 1 or 2 spot. is kelly johnson available and does he fit the needs?
also do you think the braves would be interested in:
Jermaine Dye
Nick Swisher
Javier Vazquez
those are our main trade-able pieces not saying that it would be a one for one swap but a starting point.
by thalpin on Oct 18, 2008 4:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
we have no reason to acquire any of those players. plus, they all have contracts bordering on insanity.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 19, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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