Braves Offseason Wish List
The Braves have three definite positions that they need to fill for next year in order to contend - two starting pitchers and a power outfield bat. Some of these names are floating around as possible rumors that the Braves will acquire, some are just me thinking outside the box. I listed them according to how much I want them, think they'd help, and the likelihood of the Braves acquiring them.
1. Jake Peavy RHP - San Diego Padres - 4 years/$60 million (~$15 million per year) Jake Peavy has to be number one on the list. However, where he makes up in his team friendly contract, he lacks in the amount of prospects it'll take to acquire him. The Padres aren't necessarily looking to trade him, so they can ask for the moon. The A's recieved 6 prospects for Dan Haren, but Dan Haren doesn't cost nearly that much in salary. I think 5 prospects, centered around Jordan Schafer and Tommy Hanson probably, will likely be the price. Acquiring him will allow us to explore the free agent still, but might cost us the resources to get our left fielder.
2. CC Sabathia LHP - Free Agent - ~6 years/$140 million (~$23 million per year) Another, "who wouldn't want this guy on their team?" pitcher. He's a free agent and our pick is protected next year, so we won't lose any prospects. However, he's going to cost a buttload with a huge commitment. I estimated he'd be looking for at least Johan Santana money. If we somehow win the bidding war, the second starting pitcher to be acquired won't be anything to write home about. However, he's the kind of guy you build a pitching staff around.
3. Ben Sheets RHP - Free Agent - ~5 years/$90 million (~$18 million per year) The talent has always been there, but his constant health concerns will cost him in years and money. However, he's *still* not going to come cheap - I guess that's the case with all the free agents. It might be doubtful he'll reach the free market, some rumors say he wants to stay in Milwaukee. If the Braves make a serious push at Sabathia and lose, I expect them to sign Sheets. He's a little scary to sign, but I think whatever team that signs him will be pleased. Plus, he won't get to strike us out 18 times once a year anymore.
4. Ryan Dempster RHP - Free Agent - ~4 years/$70 million ($17.5 million per year) As with Sheets, the Cubs are making it their biggest priority to resign Dempster. It's unlikely he'll reach the free market, but if he does, I suspect the Braves to make a huge push for him. The only concern I have with him is that other starters on this list have had multiple good years with 200+ innings pitched. This is his first dominant performance, and he timed it well in his walk year. I don't think he's flukey, I'm just not sure how he'll hold up after several years of starting.
5. Matt Cain RHP - San Francisco Giants - 2 years/$6.9 million with $6.25 club option for '11. With the Giants offensive struggles, it could make sense to trade from their starting depth to acquire a package of offensive prospects. They're looking to win in the next year or so, so Jason Heyward probably doesn't make much sense for them. His contract is *very* team friendly, so that might cost us an additional prospect. I'll throw some names out there, something around Schafer/K. Johnson/Lillibridge/Flowers.
6. Derek Lowe RHP - Free Agent - ~4 years/$68 million (~$17 million per year) He seems like the best fit for the Braves. If I were a betting man, I'd put money on him to be in a Braves uniform next year. However, the Braves won't be the only one bidding for his services. He's a little on the old side, but still might require a deal that will bring him to 40. He's also not the most dominant, but still a solid #2 healthy innings eater. He seems like the best bang for your buck, plus allows the Braves to continue shopping in free agency and trades without much restraint.
7. Roy Oswalt RHP - Houston Astros - 3 years/$45 million (~$15 million per year) O'Brien of AJC brought up this rumor. It's an interesting idea, and I'd love to see him in a Braves uniform. However, teams that think they can contend usually don't trade their aces. It'll cost a bounty in prospects to get him if he's even available - I'd rather them spend it on Peavy, but he's still affordable, acelike, and saves some money on the free agency front.
8. Jon Garland RHP - Free Agent - ~4 years/~$56 million (~$14 million per year) A lot of people are scared off by his lack of strikeouts and league average ERA. However, his ERA might decrease with a move to the National League and his lack of strikeouts is a moot point. If he had had only one good year, I'd agree that he's doomed to be unsuccessful, but he's been successful for 8+ years in the Majors without strikeouts. He could potentially be affordable, but several teams will go after him and he's young, so he might require a contract north of 4 years.
9. Magglio Ordonez OF RH - Detroit Tigers - 1 year/$18 million with club option for '10-'11 at $15 million per year Most of my top guys are pitchers because that's where I think the Braves should put their main focus. They need to acquire at minimum one of those above players. However, if they do acquire an outfielder, I'd want it to be Magglio. He doesn't have the huge power numbers of Dunn or Burrell, but he walks a ton and hits for a high average with consistent 25 home run power. The Tigers are rumored to shed payroll this offseason, and the Braves might be one of the few teams that will take on most of the contract. That said, I don't expect to give up a huge bounty for him and *none* of our top prospects since they're being forced to shed payroll with a very limited market for him. I like the short contract and the price of prospects it could take to acquire him.
10. Manny Rameriz RH OF - Free Agent - ~4 years/$80 million (~$20 million per year) Manny has the production that I'd want out of our leftfielder. He's the definitive power bat that the Braves could use to solidify a potent lineup. However, his contract is not going to be team friendly. He's looking for one last big contract, and he'll likely get it. Bonds signed for 5 years at age 38 - so four years might even be conservative for the 36 year old. As much as I'd love to see him, I don't think the Braves want to spend most of their money on leftfield, nor potentially block some of their outfield prospects. However, if they find two starters relatively cheap and he's looking for a three year deal, I could see it happening.
11. Ian Snell RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates - 2 years/$7.25 with club options for '11-'12 at $6.75 million and $9.25 million respectively Snell did not have the year that many expected. However, I think the potential is still there and the Braves could potentially buy low. He won't cost any of our top prospects, but the Pirates may hold out and wait for him to rebuild his value like they did for Jason Bay. I think he could be a solid number three for the Braves, with potential to be a stud with a change of scenery.
12. Randy Wolf LHP - Free Agent - ~4 years/~$40 million (~$10 million per year) Gone are the days of his cheap one year deals, because he's talking like he wants a big contract. He'd be very affordable and you can reasonably expect league average production out of him. He won't cost us any prospects, probably the cheapest decent free agent starter. I'm still kind of "ehhh" about him, but the Braves might make a big push for him.
13. Pat Burrell OF RH - Free Agent - ~4 years/~$60 million (~$15 million per year year) Along with Manny and Dunn, I don't think we're going to find our leftfielder on the free agent market. I don't think the Braves will have a problem with the amount of money, but the years. They don't want to block Heyward and/or Gorkys. He'd be nice on a 2 or 3 deal, but there should be several teams out there willing to give him 4+.
14. A.J. Burnett RHP - Free Agent - ~6 years/~$110 million (~$18 million per year) I think Burnett scares me the most about which starter the Braves might acquire. I really don't like the idea of signing him to somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 years and $110 million - he just hasn't been consistent and healthy enough for me. It has a serious risk of looking like a terrible contact in possibly the first year.
15. Adam Dunn LH OF - Free Agent - ~4 years/$72 million (~$18 million per year) I have mixed feelings about Dunn. While every fan wants him on their team, it doesn't seem like many teams actually want him. It makes me wonder what they know that we don't - maybe he really doesn't have his heart set on baseball, who knows. If he could be brought down to a 3 year deal - I'd say do it. However, if someone is going to base his contract around the one Carlos Lee received, it could be ~6 years/~$100 million - I just don't think there will be a big enough market for him to do that.
16. Scott Olsen LHP - Florida Marlins - 3 years/Arbitration eligible The Marlins might be looking to shed contract, so Olsen might be available since he's arbitration eligible. I was kind of surprised when I looked up his stats, he had a pretty good year in 2008 and 2006. He'd be cheap and probably wouldn't cost us a top prospect. The Marlins aren't shy about dealing within the division, so I don't think that'd be a problem with them.
17. Josh Willingham RH OF - Florida Marlins - 3 years/Arbitration eligible I was actually surprised when I looked up Willingham's stats, too. He has some good power numbers and could potentially come cheap as well. The Braves could might could pull of a trade for both Olsen and Willingham, but that might cost a top prospect. They'd both be cheap and it could potentially be the same package they'd give up for one elite player. With the savings in prospects and cash, they might could still pull off an additional two starting pitchers and maybe even a legitimate centerfielder (Randy Winn?). However, knowing the Marlins, they'd still ask for the moon. It could be the poor man's six-prospects-for-Cabrera/Willis deal.
18. Ryan Howard LH 1B - Philadelphia Phillies - 3 years/~$50 million (~$16.5 million per year) Okay, here is where I lose credibility. I know, it's a huge outside shot - but hear me out. As Howard goes through arbitration, he's going to earn a ton of money the Phillies are rumored to not want to spend on him. With most big market teams having their first basemen needs already filled, the market for him could be very limited. I'm thinking something along the lines of the Kevin Millwood trade, but I don't think we'd get a huge bargain in terms of prospects like they did - but if the Phillies are serious about trading him - Atlanta could be a fit and willing to take on the payroll. Kotchman could be traded or stuck in left field. Don't bash me for this, it's not to be taken completely serious - just an idea.
19. Matt Kemp RH OF - Los Angelos Dodgers - 4 years/Arbitration eligible Honestly, it doesn't really make much sense. There are a lot of rumors out there, mostly by Yankee fans, that Kemp could be traded. I don't really see it, but if the Dodgers do decide to trade him, I'd hope the Braves would make a push for him. He's under team control for another 4 years, so the Braves could potentially trade him off for a huge bounty a year before he hits free agency and bring up a top prospect (looking at you, Heyward) or just let him walk. He might require a tasty four or five packaged deal, probably centered around Hanson.
20. Andre Ethier LH OF - Los Angelos Dodgers - 4 years/Abitration eligible He's not really a good fit, since the Dodgers don't really have any reason to trade him - contending teams don't usually trade productive cheap players, and he's not a power hitter. However, I'm a big Ethier fan and would love to see him in a Braves uniform. If the Dodgers *were* to clear up their logjam in the outfield, I'd suspect Ethier would be the easiest to trade since many teams would love to have him, he's affordable, and not entirely irreplaceable production-wise. However, he doesn't the power (yet) the Braves want, but he certainly has the average and on-base.
That's my top-20 list. I probably left out a huge obvious name, but oh well. There are a few players I left out on purpose though, Jason Bay and Zach Grienke for instance. Boston is looking to contend next year and they have the means to resign him to a long-term deal. Grienke is the type of pitcher that teams like the Royals trade for, not trade away. Plus, with his contract only having two more years left, it might not be long enough for the Braves to give up a significant haul of prospects for, again. There are plenty of other options where they could have much longer for the same amount. Oh, and Oliver Perez. Dear God, please don't let the Braves sign Oliver Perez.
In my personal opinion, I think we should stay away from long expensive contracts (Like Sabathia, Burnett, Burrell, Rameriz might require) - it gives us better options down the road if it doesn't work out. Acquiring three star players to fit those three needs will definitely let us contend next year, but that's going be very tricky without having any long and expensive contracts. After the amount of injuries we had, I'd rather go after quantity than rely on just three players. But, with the amount of resources and options, there's almost an infinite amount of combinations that'd I'd be happy with.
Also, I like our chances of acquiring top talent on the free market. I don't think the big market teams are looking for that much starting pitching, or at least to give out huge contracts for those starters. The Red Sox don't seem like they'll be getting in a bidding war, the Yankees are doubtful to give a huge contract to both Teixeira and Sabathia, the Mets have other needs besides starting to fulfill first, the Angels don't need any starting pitching and will be more focused on Teixeira, and not that many other teams are looking to dish out big contracts. I like our position heading into the offseason, it should be an exciting one.
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22 comments
Comments
Ethier
is an interesting addition i wonder what it would take to get him. I would think Lillibridge and a minor league pitcher would get him.
by jack dein on Oct 4, 2008 8:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d look at Burrell. He’ll be capable of playing the outfield badly for a few more years then he’ll be capable of playing first base badly after that. Five years, $100 million would be about what I’d offer. He’d anchor the middle of our order through what I expect will be a solid few years of contending in 2010-2013. Having Schafer’s range in center would make up for him too.
I’d pass on the free agent starters and maybe look at what a package of players built around Johnson could get starter-wise. Guys like Ubaldo Jimenez and Jonathon Sanchez would be who I’d start looking at.
All in all the objective should be to acquire young above average players to add to our core and not sign someone who’s contract will be an albatross in 2-3 years. We have a lot of money to spend, but I feel like it’s better spent trying to contend in 2010 rather than 2009 as most anything we do won’t be able to fill our holes enough to contend next year without Smoltz and Hudson.
by 17843 on Oct 4, 2008 9:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you basing 5 years, $100 million off an actual contract or is that a random number?
Also, let’s say for the sake of argument that the Braves cannot contend in 2009. If that’s the case, then they shouldn’t pay someone franchise player money, 5 years, $100 million, on someone like Pat Burrell. Pat Burrell is not someone you build a lineup around. If we cannot contend until 2010, then we shouldn’t waste our money on Pat Burrell, and wait until next offseason when someone who really is a player you build a lineup around, like Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, will become free agents.
by beeniez on Oct 4, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pray tell how Pat Burrell isn’t a player that will “anchor the middle of our order” or that you “build a lineup around”?
4 Year EQA
Pat Burrell – .303
Matt Holliday – .309
Jason Bay – .303
Yeah Bay has 2 years and Holliday 3 years on Burrell, but they’ll only have 1 and 2 after 2009 and they’ll cost more because their perceived value is higher and their defensive value (in Holliday’s case) is higher. Pat Burrell is the kind of hitter who bats 5th on very good playoff teams. He’s certainly someone I’d bet on being a productive bat over the next five years.
As for money, the contract is based on the sort that have been handed out recently and on paying him higher per year salaries so we don’t have to go to a 6th-7th year. The going rate for a premium bat has hovered in the high teens in recent years.
by 17843 on Oct 5, 2008 3:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
are you kidding
about paying $100 million for burrell. I like burrell and would not object to him being added but he is not the kind of person you build a lineup around. The guy has a .250 lifetime average. Here’s another thing his average and obp have been going down for 4 years now. The power is good but why does a guy hitting 5th in the phillies lineup with 33 homeruns have only 86 rbi. That says that he is not a clutch hitter to me. Not to mention the subpar defense. I would say 3 years and $39 million should get him, maybe 4 yrs. $52 million.
by jack dein on Oct 5, 2008 3:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His lifetime average is irrelevant. His career EQA is .291 and it hasn’t dropped under .300 for the last four years. His isolated power has risen the past four years, his BB rate has been between 15% and 19% in the last four seasons, etc, etc. He’s a very good offensive player, one who’s good enough to bat fifth for two straight playoff teams and one good enough to bat fifth for a Braves championship team.
And if Carlos Lee can get 6 years 100 million in the 06-07 offseason, Burrell can get 5 years 100 million in the 08-09 offseason. They’re largely similar players and inflation in the market will make up for the difference.
As for clutch:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=burrepa01#situa-clutc
ie, no difference depending on situation.
by 17843 on Oct 5, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People that bat fifth don’t make $20 million dollars per year. The best hitters that bat 3rd and 4th barely make $20 million dollars per year. Miguel Cabrera is the type of player who you build a lineup around. His salary is roughly $20 million dollars per year. This EQA garnered him $20 million dollars per year:
Age – EQA
21 – .300
22 – .324
23 – .335
24 – .328
That is a significant difference between Pat Burrell’s and Miguel Cabrera’s. Ken Rosenthal said that Burrell will command $14-17 million dollars per year. Carlos Lee’s contract could potentially serve as a comparable, but Lee drove in more runs, scored more runs, and hit for a higher average. He won’t get Lee money.
by beeniez on Oct 5, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference between Cabrera and Burrell’s deals will be that Cabrera’s was not signed on the open market. Rather he still had two seasons worth of team exclusive control to make it through until he could hit the open market. If he’d been a free agent this past off-season he would’ve made several million more a season with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, and Tigers all with third base holes.
The offensive difference between Lee and Burrell up to their walk years actually isn’t dissimilar. Lee had one season with an EQA above .300, Burrell has had five. The difference will be that Burrell is a year older and about five runs subtracted on defense. Burrell should get paid similarly.
(as an aside, though this is relevant, Lee as a player now is vastly more valuable than Lee as a free agent in 2006. His defense has improved by a ton (check out some RZR for 2004-2005 and now) and his bat has established itself as a .310-.320 EQA guy rather than a .290-.300 guy.
by 17843 on Oct 5, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we’re going to have to agree to disagree with this. What about the argument that overpaying someone sets a dangerous precedent? It could effect future deals with the Braves and could hamper them in the long run. Plus, the Braves just can’t rely on Sanchez and Ulbado, who really haven’t established themselves as future front line starters yet, to anchor a rotation. The Braves can compete next year – with the right moves.
by beeniez on Oct 5, 2008 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In this market you have to overpay for talent. In terms of actual dollar values, a player of Pat Burrell’s caliber brings in somewhere around $8-10 million worth of revenue. He’s obviously going to get paid much more than that because the pool of available talent every winter is so restricted. That said, you don’t grossly overpay, but there’s no reason to slightly overpay someone when the payoff is there.
I’d agree that Sanchez and Jimenez aren’t established, but no one trades young starters with #2-3 upside who are established. Sanchez just tossed 160 innings with a FIP of 3.85. His over 5 ERA was a product of his terrible LOB% and a 23rd ranked San Fran defense. Jimenez tossed 200 innings with a FIP of 3.83. I don’t know how available the two of them are (I imagine the price would be a bit high), but the opportunity to pick up a good young starter should be one explored. There’s no need to pay for a Cain or Peavy.
I don’t disagree we can compete next year. Adding Derek Lowe and Randy Wolf to the rotation is something we can afford and expecting some development of Jo-Jo Reyes would make the rotation solid. The bullpen is a complete mess, but even with a bad bullpen there’s a chance our pitching staff could be league average.
On defense, a McCann, Kotchman, Johnson, Escobar, Chipper, Blanco, Anderson, Francoeur group would actually be quite good – everyone but Francoeur contributed positive runs defensively using +/-. The bench is a mess, but Sammons, Infante, Prado, Norton, and a 4th outfielder wouldn’t be terrible as long as no one missed an excessive amount of time.
Offensively, I think we can expect regression to the mean for Francoeur. He’s not 240/290/360 bad. Kotchman is a good bet to improve. Blanco and Anderson are sub-optimal for sure, but maybe Brandon Jones and Jordan Schafer could emerge as better options.
Maybe 85-88 wins could win the NL East next year. If so, we could win it with the above scenario, but with the loss of having committed multi-year salaries to Lowe and Wolf who will almost certainly not be as good as they were this year again.
The Braves right now have a good young core in place and a few good players in the high minors that could contribute in 2010. They have an ace coming back in 2010 and a lot of money to spend either this winter or next. The question is whether you spend the money this winter on pitchers who will want contracts locking them up until they’re 35 or on offensive players who age much more consistently.
by 17843 on Oct 5, 2008 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
uhhhhh Pat Burrell is NOT gonna get $20 million a year. And if he SOMEHOW did he wouldn’t get that from the Braves. We would pay a little extra and try to get Sabathia. The guys bat is good but he does play in a big time HR park and his defense is downright putrid. If you think Diaz is bad wait until you see Burrell playin everyday in LF. I think he will get $15 million a year for 3-4 years. $60 million over 4 years is my guess. And if a stupid team wants to spend more money than that on him then let him go.
“And if Carlos Lee can get 6 years 100 million in the 06-07 offseason, Burrell can get 5 years 100 million in the 08-09 offseason. They’re largely similar players and inflation in the market will make up for the difference.”
You have heard about the $700 Billion dollar bailout that the house and senate voted to pass right? I think some of these players are in for a big surprise if the money is not there like expected. How does it make ANY sense that the economy is like it is and the country might go into a recession and yet major league athletes start maken MORE money in past years? It dont make sense. And the fans that are payin to go to the games are gonna be the ones affected with the bailout(all the taxpayers will but it will hurt the fans more than the major leaguers). I could be dead wrong about all of this but to me it makes absolutely NO sense to pay the major leaguers MORE money just because people made more money last year in baseball especially with the way the economy and the bailout bill bein passed.
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 5, 2008 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If anything, a 2008-2009 recession will hit two years from now rather than immediately. The 2001 recession didn’t cause a spending hit until 2004. Indeed, MLB teams went through the 2001 and 2002 offseasons with spending increases.
Sure, it makes no sense, but I doubt you’ll see a team limit their budget on the threat of an economic downturn, especially in this competitive environment where so many teams are in contention and their are so few big free agents.
Maybe Burrell won’t get 5 and 100, but I’d value him that high in this environment if the alternative was the offensive black hole of this season. The Braves cannot be competitive without above-average preformers at the corners, and we currently have one such player (This is somewhat made up for by our strong up-the-middle players, but there’s a limit to that).
by 17843 on Oct 5, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More money THAN in past years?
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 5, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i might off myself if we sign garland. that guy makes me sick to my stomach
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 5, 2008 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone else think...
there’s a slight possibility that Frank may have second thoughts and jump into the Texeira sweepstakes once Tex sees that his value isn’t quite what his agent thought it was? I just can’t beliver he’s going to get the kind of offers he and Boras are expecting and I think he liked playing here so… And, Kotchman should bring a decent left fielder in a trade. I don’t see Frank spending all of the money on pitching; it just won’t be there — so many of the available arms have “baggae”, like health issues or egos that would require too much cash.
by BBFAN46 on Oct 6, 2008 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What pitcher..
..doesn’t have some sort of injury issue. It’s just part of the territory really.
by RainDelay on Oct 6, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s a matter of degree; ie, Derek Lowe is much more likely to pitch a full season than AJ Burnett.
by 17843 on Oct 6, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doubt it...
As I think the Yankees or Angels will give Tex exactly what he thinks his value will be.
by soup du jour on Oct 6, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I give them too much credit, but...
I think a lot of potential bidders will look at the fact that Tex is a (very) slow starter and his production is Aaron-like — he generally produces best when you’re ahead by 10 or trailing by 10. Granted, he is a better defensive 1B than most, but it comes with a high price. Anyone think Baltimore will find any cash to get into the bidding war?
by BBFAN46 on Oct 7, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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