You play Frank Wren for a day.
by TheSportsIdiot on Oct 28, 2008 10:10 AM EDT
29 comments
I usually do my blogging over at my site, www.thesportsidiot.com, but I thought I would pose a question here to the Bravos fans. You play Frank Wren for a day. What package would you propose for the following players:
Matt Holliday is on the blocks. He is signed through 2009. What would you give Colorado for Holliday?
Peavy. You know the story. What are you putting on the table?
Florida Marlins pitcher Scott Olsen, who is arbitration eligible. Also Dan Uggla, and Kevin Gregg. Uggla would take an overwhelming offer.
Prince Fielder.
That is all I have for now. Holliday and Peavy are the two that I'd most like to see thoughts on. I have seen many times who people do not want to give up for Peavy, but nothing on who they would be willing to offer up for him.
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Don’t want Holliday—he’d boost the outfield, but is only a Boras client and only a rental. Pass.
Peavy—the Padres will rightfully demand a lot of prospects in any potential deal and the Braves need to stick with the prospects for once instead of insisting on the “win now” approach. Pass.
Kevin Gregg—he doesn’t have a spot on this club. He wants to be a closer and we already have a closer. Pass.
Uggla and Olsen don’t fill immediate needs. Uggla would be nice to have, but he’d be highly coveted by other teams willing to pay more. Olsen is a loose cannon off the field and has only had marginal success on-the-field. Pass.
Prince Fielder—we’ve got a first baseman for the few couple years and some nice looking first-base talent in the mid/lower levels who will fill that role one day. Fielder is a Boras client and will be expensive. Pass.
- Oh, Bobby. -
Yeah, that pretty well sums it up. Of any of those, I’d try to make an offer for Holliday if an extension can be worked out beforehand. But with the slim likelihood of that happening, plus the prospects COL would want in return, the whole deal has about a .005% chance of working.
I’m not going to make a comment on Peavy because everything on him has been absolutely beaten to death in the last few days.
Thanks for the comments, sdp. I agree on all but Peavy and Holliday.
Peavy could fill the “big brother” role that the young starters are going to need. Of course, having Smoltzie will take care of most of the “veteran leadership” that the staff needs, but Smoltzie might not pitch again (nothing is guaranteed so far) and you need someone to hand the ball to that can get it done and set an example. I don’t see him as a “win now” guy, but as an ace for the next 10 years. I just don’t know what I would give up to get him.
Holliday is a complete player, but entering a contract year it is interesting to see what it will take to land him. I didn’t think about Boras previously.
by TheSportsIdiot on Oct 28, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
The only one I’d trade for is Fielder, and I’m not even sure about that. Poor defense, bad body, only controlled for three arbitration years that are going to get expensive due to him being overrated. I’d offer the Brewers a package built around Kotchman and Rohrbaugh. Maybe add a lower level pitcher. He’s just not as valuable as he’s made out to be though.
Yeah, as good as he is (and he’s great; the most talented right field prospect in the game) he still has four levels to prove himself at and the chance he makes a ML impact before 2011 is pretty low. If we could get Peavy without dealing Hanson or Schafer, we’ll be a much better team in 2010 and 2011, the last two years we have exclusive control over Johnson, Kotchman, and Francoeur.
Frenchy
Will not be in Atlanta in 2011, mark my words. He won’t make it through 2009 if he doesn’t figure out what is wrong at the plate. TP needs to get to work over there.
by TheSportsIdiot on Oct 29, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
What’s wrong is terrible luck on balls in play. His BB% remained static, his K% actually dropped, his LD% increased, but his BABIP did not increase alongside it, rather it receded rather precipitously.
Now, that 342 mark from 2007 was unsustainable given a 19.3% LD rate, but the 277 mark was well below what’s expected from a 20.7 LD%.
Regress Francoeur towards what his BABIP should have been, and the numbers look better.
Peavy.
He’s the only one I’d trade for, and I’d push hard to get it done. But like Vegas, its been beaten to death pretty well, so I’ll just leave it at that.
Peavy doesn’t need to be looked as a “win now” approach. The guy is only 27 years old and we need an ace and a leader on the staff for the younger pitchers. He would be a great acquisition provided we give up the “right” prospects for him.
Agreed.
But who would you give up to get him?
by TheSportsIdiot on Oct 29, 2008 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Why would anyone want Scott Olsen? The guy has a history of surliness and drunkeness. At any moment he could decide to go out and get loaded and ruin a season.
As if
Imagine if every player played like Furcal did when he got busted for DUI and the only thing keeping him out of the clink was how long the Braves stayed in the playoffs. Imagine that kind of urgent passion, but every game.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
same page
I don’t want him either, just throwing another name from the blocks out there.
by TheSportsIdiot on Oct 29, 2008 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not comfortable with any of them for a variety of reasons
Peavy – questionable mechanics, a bit of a down 2008 doesn’t seem to have driven down the asking price at all. I don’t trust him to stay healthy for the remainder of his contract.
Holliday – Very good player, but coming from Coors to Atlanta would put a slight ding in his production. Probably my favorite of the bunch listed, but he would demand a king’s ransom in prospects and is not controlled past 2009.
Uggla – One trick pony, I think his 07 production is likely a better indication of his abilities going forward than his monster 08. Brutal fielder and our 2B situation is pretty good.
Fielder – Fielder can’t (haha, I make a funny). Our situation at 1B isn’t ideal, but if Fielder gets any bigger and slower he’ll give back most of his value at the dish in the field.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 28, 2008 5:19 PM EDT reply actions
thanks guys...
But my point of posting this still hasn’t been met. I want to know who you would trade to get the guys that you would add. I wouldn’t add Olsen, Fielder, or Uggla either, but I needed more than Peavy and Holliday to make a decent thread.
The thing with Fielder is that we have seen this act before. Same goes for Ryan Howard. Fat dudes don’t last very long in the bigs. Call it what you will, but historically I can’t think of a single fat dude that lasted a long time. We all know how quickly things went south for Prince’s dad, but the veggie eating first-baseman still can’t seem to lose weight.
Fact of the matter is that Wren said he’s looking to add two starters and a bat in the outfield. If he isn’t going to go hard for Peavy, then who is he going to go after? Sabathia? He just built a new home in Southern California, and is going to get mega offers from New York (both of them), Boston and LA (both of them).
I am just befuddled by the direction of this team. I know that the minors are stacked, and that good players are on the way. How do we know Hanson isn’t the next Davies or James, though? I’m not saying trade Hanson, but it should be an option shouldn’t it?
No snow in Philly so far today. It’s cold as balls though. I’m debating on hitting Center City if the Phils win tonight.
by TheSportsIdiot on Oct 29, 2008 10:19 AM EDT reply actions
You're dead on with Fielder
Players like Prince tend to hit a wall around 30 where they can’t stay healthy, can’t play defense, and lose just enough batspeed to sap power and their ability to hit for average. They are sure fun while they last!
Personally, I think that trading Hanson is very short-sighted. I can’t stress this point enough – he is not James, Davies, Reyes, Parr, or Morton. Hanson is the most talented pitcher we’ve had in the minors since at least the mid 90s when we had Millwood. He’s not a raw guy at this point, his secondary stuff is excellent and the only real progress left to be made is to solidify his command and join the major league rotation. He could bust, all pitchers carry that risk, but he’s got a much better shot than the recent disappointments from the minors.
As for what Wren wants to add, I’m not terribly opposed to getting Peavy for the right price. Maybe a deal from our depth in pitching at the lower levels with a guy like Rohrbaugh at the center of it. I am very opposed at this junction to trading Hanson, Schafer, or Heyward, and I would rather not part with Flowers and Freeman. With all the pitching available on the market, we can probably shore up the staff without a trade, although we’re unlikely to get an ace.
Under no circumstances would I trade for a season of Matt Holiday. I don’t like rentals, and I feel that there is very little to sign him to a long term deal.
I think that Fielder, for all the reasons mentioned above, is very overrated and I would not trade for him due to the Brewer’s undoubtedly high asking price.
Uggla does not address an area of need for us and I would not trade for him.
I think that answers your question!
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 29, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice work.
The only way a Holliday deal gets done is if it’s a sign and trade. With the money that he will want, and the suitors lined up, I don’t see any GM making a rental out of him. My gut tells me he stays in Colorado until July.
If Hanson is the next Millwood, trade his ass ASAP! I know that isn’t what you meant, though. What about Reyes, Jair Jurrijens (from now on i’m calling him JJ because I’m lazy) and a few minor prospects? Then you can bring Hanson up next season at some point, and you only have to add one free agent starter. I’m not high on Reyes, but he seems to be talked about a lot. JJ is going to be good, but not a #1 or #2 I don’t think.
Only reason you look at Uggla is if you move KJ in a Peavy deal, which I would be fine with. I hope he proves me wrong, but I am not a huge KJ fan.
It’s all a pipe dream anyway.
by TheSportsIdiot on Oct 29, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I think trading for Peavy and Uggla...
would leave us with a farm system that looks like the depression era dustbowl!
I wouldn’t move JJ, he’s looking like a solid middle of the rotation starter, and those aren’t cheap on the open market. We’ve got him cheap for at least four years (I think, that’s off the top of my head), and guys like that are great to have around even if they aren’t stars.
Why no love for KJ? I don’t think he’ll ever be a superstar, but he seems to be solid for an OPS of around .800, combine that with average defense at 2B and you have a strong contributor. In that sense, he’s a lot like JJ – cheap, not great, but a guy who is a great guy to have around before he hits free agency. KJ may well end up being quite a steal even once he hits free agency since he’s not a big name and a lot of his value is in drawing walks and hitting doubles, not in steals, average, or home runs.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 29, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Most people I think are taking a pass not because the players aren’t very good but mainly because we are not going to trade “the group” Hanson, Freeman, Heyward, Schafer, Flowers, Hernandez and Rorhbaugh. These are the guys I believe that people don ‘t want to trade and realize the deals just won’t get done without some of them being given up.
With a system as stacked as my fellow Bravo fans say it is, how could if possibly get depleted like that? I mean, are the Braves the Phils? The Phils have no one in the minors worth talking about right now. Maybe later tonight, just not right now.
See, now that TBS doesn’t carry the games, something I didn’t know going into this past season, I don’t get to see the Bravos very often. I don’t see some of the things that KJ may be doing, because for the most part I just get the boxes and recaps. It looks like it will be the MLB package for me going forward, but I don’t think they broadcast in HD, which may kill that purchase for me. Damned tangents…
The question is whether or not you would package JJ to get your hands on Peavy. I would, especially if JJ is a future 3, not a 1 or 2. I’m just giving out ideas though, and I honestly have not had time to sit down and comb things over to come up with what I would want to offer for Peavy. It’s fun to talk about, though.
What are your thoughts on Kotchman? Will he blossom into a good player, or will the Braves need to fill yet another hole at firstbase?
Did you see Derrick Lee may be on the blocks now too? Going to be a great offseason.
Well I would imagine that a Peavy deal will require...
at least 1 top prospect plus a major league middle infielder (Yunel or KJ) or a few top prospects. I may be wrong there.
Uggla won’t be cheap either. The Marlins are unlikely to accept anything less than one top guy and a few other lower level guys like Freeman or Rohrbaugh. These two moves would seriously hurt our system, in my opinion. Maybe not to dust bowl level (a little hyperbole on my part) but we would be in need of a few VERY strong drafts and a good dose of luck to replenish the minors. All speculative mind you, it could be that the Padres and the Fish are selling for less than I think they are.
I’ve got major concerns about Peavy’s health and performance, mainly due to his rather violent mechanics. I’m no expert, but I’ve seen a number of quality writeups that are less than optimistic about Peavy’s long term health. In addition to that, 2008 was a very down year in all categories, and he does pitch in Petco, the anti-Coors. In general, it’s my feeling that we can bolster the rotation in free agency without seriously compromising our farm system, and though it won’t land us an ace, it should be enough to give us some stability. In general though, the Peavy thing is resembling a dead horse right now, at least until new information becomes available, so I don’t want to spend too much time there lest a flame war break out…
Kotchman is an enigma. His 2007 was a very good campaign, with a .296/.372/.467 line at the dish and an above average glove at first. In 2008, his walk rate plummeted but he hit 11 HR in 389 plate appearances compared to 12 in 508 in 2007. Scouts have always liked him, and he has always shown a mature approach at the plate. The question with him was always whether his power can carry 1B. I think 2009 will be a defining year for him – if he makes strides or at least has a repeat of 2007, he will be a valued contributor, but a 2008 repeat would be troubling. Luckily, with Flowers and Freeman on the farm, if Kotchman disappoints, reinforcements are on the way.
I did not see that Lee was being discussed as a trade object. Adds to the fun, eh? This is probably lining up to be the most active offseason I’ve ever seen, and it should be fascinating to see who gets shaken up, who gets ripped off, and who gets the steals that are bound to be out there.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 29, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot of variables involved
You would have several things going at all times. Also, have to take into consideration that other teams will be calling Wren with offers for Braves players that we will never hear about unless a deal is done. My suggestions would be:
Top Tier Pitcher:
Make 7 yr/ 140-145 mil offer to Sabathia. May not be the highest but we are NL which he seems to prefer and Atlanta seems to be a place a lot of players like. Three years from now, he’d be considered a bargin.
Make an offer to Sheets with innings pitched clauses. A very good base salary with a chance of being up around 18 mil for, say, 6 years, if innings are reached. He has said he would to be in the south.
Keep an offer on the table for Peavy not involving our top prospects. The number of teams with the money, prospects, and agreeable to Peavy are very limited.
Take the first one who agrees to a contract.
Second Tier Pitcher:
Make an offer to Garland. Something like 8-10 mil for 3/4 years. HIs 4.00+ ERA should drop a bit in the NL and his 200 innnings would be nice.
Make a 2/3 year offer to Hampton with innings pitched clauses. Maybe something like 5-6 mil with incentives to reach 8 mil.
Check with the Rays on the availability of Jackson and Sonnastine. Both may be had with the kids the Rays are bringing up. Both had decent years and still have upside; and, are veterans of the AL East battles. The NL East would seem like a vacation.
Take which ever comes first.
Outfield:
Make an offer to Juan Rivera. Stats were mediocre last year but may improve.
Check out Rocco Baldelli to see if his medical condition will allow him to make a come back. Might be cheap and has a ton of talent if healthy.
Several teams have OF surpluses. Can’t think of them at the moment but the Braves FO will know them. I’m not crazy about Burrell or Dunn but if the price were right, maybe.
As a last resort, I could live with Prado in LF. The guy is a stone hitter and an acceptable OFer. Has been playing RF in the winter leagues. Could be a league leader in doubles and very savy player.
A lot depends on Smoltz and Glavine. Some money maybe kept until its determined if they can pitch.
There are odds and ends. Back up catcher, maybe BP help if something pops up.
Rocco seems pretty healthy and he will be on the move this offseason, i think… Id love to have some sort of incentive based contract for him.
and we dont really need a backup catcher, Sammons is serviceable, and if McCann goes down it really doesnt matter who we haev theres no backup that will be able to fill in enough to keep the team at the same level. Also, worst case we bring up Flowers…which seems like a pretty good idea, i know his defense is sketchy, but he could replace the numbers (hopefully).
And as much as I like Prado, i dont think i can live with him in left, that would make three OFers who produce no power (assuming frenchy doesnt find his power stroke)… That means the only place on the field that is producing semi significant power is C, and 3B if Chipper is healthy (which generally is a big if)… we need some power, although if we cant sign someone for a reasonable contract, such is life and we have to suck it up for another year, but without some power production from the OF i don’t see this team going very far.
And I still dont understand this affection for Juan Rivera, he is a platoon OF for the Angels, who notoriosuly have a non productive OF (i know thier OF did better this year than in year’s past, but still). He has pretty good pop, but is OBP isnt very good. I would much rather have Dunn or Burrell, Strikeouts arent a problem, especially when you take the amount of walks both these guys take, and the amount of power they both hit for. I think we can get Burrel for pretty cheap, especially if we make a run at him before Dunn is signed. Assuming, most teams will target Dunn before Burrell.
If we gould get Burrell/ Dunn, and possibly Rocco, we would have a very deep OF. and as much as i dont want to admit it, we might want a replacement for Frenchy.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Did you happen to see the article over at fangraphs on Juan Rivera? Believe me, I understand your concern about him but I personally think he’s a lot better than what his stats have shown the last 2/3 years. I’m not saying he would supply anywhere near the production of a Dunn or Burrell, but he also wouldn’t cost as much either! At the very least it’s a good read.
Understand your concerns
Sammons is young yet and the Braves may think he should be playing every day. They will have to decide that. This power thing is over blown. With the drastic reduction in HRs over the past several years, a 30 HR hitter will be the power on a team. The Angels have won a WS and several division championships with one or two power hitterws in their lineup. Outstanding pitching, solid defense and a number of gap hitters won it for them. A hitter who can give you 40+ doubles, about 80 RBIs, hit around .300, have a .350 OBP, play solid defense, above average speed, is a valuable asset. I would take a whole outfield of those kind of players. The only problem with Burrel or Dunn is that they are pretty much one trick ponies and you will be stuck with them for 4/6 years. That money could go along way to sign Sabathia, whom I’d rather have. I’d take the money people are wanting to spend on Lowe and Burrel/Dunn and bring in Sabathia for 7 years. A better value.
they arent really one trick ponies, the are on baseball over 40% of the time… thats something I like to see, esp batting 4th, then have McCann driving them in, or giving FYF an opportunity to ground into a double play.
I agree that if we could have a guy that can hit 40+ doubles drive in 80 runs and hit around 300 that would be pretty good, but if he’s hitting 300 id like a higher OBP. and the difference between the Angels and us right now, is pitching.. we dont have the pitching they have so we need to make up for it with more offense. I am all for building the team around pitching and that would be awesome if we can do it, thats the best road to a championship, however you haev to work with what u have. right now we dont have a nbr 2 guy in our rotation and our bullpen has some decent arms, but they seem to be injured too much. We dont have KROD or Shields.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Just a note on the Angels...
when they won the WS, they slugged somthing fierce in the postseason, over .500 if I’m not mistaken. Troy Glaus slugged .864 in the world series alone, which was a major reason they won. In short, they hit for a lot more power in the postseason than they did over the first 162.
Anyways, I’m not sure the Angels are a good model for us to follow. They have indeed been a good team, but playing in the AL West has made them look a lot better than they really have been for the last few years and it shows in the lack of postseason success since 2002. Personally, I don’t like their rather extreme emphasis on batting average – Casey Kotchman was reportedly being told after 2007 to “take a more aggressive approach” by their hitting coach despite posting a .296/.372/.467 line that year. I also think their defense and speed, while once quite good, are now very overrated.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 30, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
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