This is germane:

Ryguy86 (NY): What’s an overwhelming package for Jake Peavy?
Joe Sheehan: A top-15 prospect, top-50, and top-75 guy, at least two of whom can be on the field by June.

Now, whether or not that’s really the price or not is debateable*, but who can even pay that for Peavy? The Braves could, what with Heyward, Hanson, and either Schafer or Gorkys, but what team would want to?

If the exchange were Heyward, Hanson, Schafer for Peavy, I can’t imagine that the Braves would win in the most likely scenario.

1st, how much will Peavy be worth over the next five years. PECOTA has him at 30 WARP in their mid-range projection for 2009-2013. Even if he sustains his current level of preformance, he’ll accumulate a max of 45 WARP from 2009-2013. Of course, an arm injury that reduces his effectiveness and/or causes him to miss significant time could make him worth less than 30 WARP. However, we’ll play with that number as a reasonable expectation of his value.

Add to that his salaries of $81 million (a very team friendly deal) and you have expenses of $81 million and preformance of 30 wins.

2. Now, what value will the three prospects deliver? It’s tough to determine exactly how much since none have played a major league game thus far, but we can make estimates based on past preformance of other prospects.

http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-08.pdf – Pages 3-6

The above study is helpful. The consensus in the prospect community seems to be that Heyward is a top 10 prospect, Hanson is a top 25 prospect, and Schafer is somewhere between 25 and 75, probably closer to the higher number. Using his mean values, Heyward can be expected to deliver ~24 WARP of value, Hanson can be expected to deliver 11 WARP of value, and Schafer somewhere less than 19 WARP. I’ll arbitrarilly assign him a low value of 12 WARP to account for his lower prospect status. That right there is ~47 WARP of value we’d be trading away.

Now, the obvious determining factor in trades involving prospects is how those prospects preform. Obviously the possibility that all three bust and provide ~10 WARP is there alongside the chances that they all excel and provide ~100 WARP. However, in a neutral projection they should provide about 150% of the value provided by Peavy during their time under team control. They will also be significantly cheaper – something like $15-25 million through their arbitration seasons.

The only argument I can see for acquiring Peavy involves a team that is literally an ace away from contending – a team in the 86-93 win sweet spot where the difference between a Peavy and a #5 starter is the difference between the playoffs and no playoffs. Those marginal and immediate wins may be worth losing future production and paying out more money, but the Braves aren’t in that situation at all. We’re better off developing three cheaper possible 5-7 WARP players rather than trading for the 6-9 WARP pitcher who costs a lot.

*I’ve seen expectations of Peavy’s cost involving several high level prospects (like Sheehan’s post) or involving 6 or more prospects including 1-2 high level guys and some lesser prospects. The WARP expectations for both groups are about the same. Lesser prospects should provide more of a chance that someone will contribute, but will produce less because of lesser skills.

that perhaps Kevin Towers would offer a discount if the team taking Peavy would also take Khalil Greene’s $6.5 million salary for 2009. This is hearsay, since Olney’s blog is subscription-only.

What if we were willing to swap Yunel Escobar for Khalil Greene? Greene has always hit well on the road, and he’s a superb defender. And Escobar’s inclusion (along with whatever “package discount” we get) would mean that Heyward and Hanson wouldn’t have to be on the table.

This is just a thought, but I think that could potentially make a Peavy acquisition that much more palatable from the Braves’ standpoint.

Dont see how it makes much sense in replacing a very good young cheap SS and replacin him with a bad expensive SS, we create a hole there to get a good pitcher and PLUS we would STILL have to trade good prospects also. I dont see how adding Escobar and then other good prospects will actually help us when we were tied for the 6th worst team in the majors.

Now i think a better option without given up NEARLY as much would be Andy Sonnastein or Edwin Jackson from the Rays. We should try to get one of them. I would prefer Sonnastein, he had a good year and he doesn’t hardly walk nobody. And i saw him pitch last night and he looked great. I wonder what it would take to get him or Jackson? Im sure they want to move one of them because i figure they would want Price to be in there rotation at the beginning of the year, but of course they dont have to trade either because they could move one to the bullpen but if they get the right deal they will trade one of them and maybe we can get Sonnastein. He could be a good number 3 for us.

Brandon Jones, Chuck James, and Kala Kaaihue will probably not net us someone like Peavy, and that’s about my ceiling on prospects for trade. I wouldn’t even sell low on Anthony Lerew.

Yes, this is a season where a free agent or two makes sense. But I also agree that we are not likely contenders until 2010 or 2011, depending on when Heyward and Hanson are ready to play winning major league baseball.

So the goal should be young starting pitchers who will be better and stronger in a year or two, not guys who have already peaked and who have a good chance of turning into Mike Hampton (i.e. expensive and injured) by a yeara from now.

JimK
who warned against signing Glavine last year.

If Yunnel is included in a deal for Peavy, and we agree to absorb Khalil Greene’s salary in the deal, what other prospects would we have to give up.

If Escobar were still in the Minors, he would be our top hitting prospect. He is also one of the best defensive shortstops in the league with a lot of room to grow offensively. His approach at the plate is solid, he just needs to stay healthy.

Me thinks that this is the deal that Atlanta will make for Peavy. Include Escobar and either Gorkys or Jordan Schafer plus a pitching prospect or two.