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Community Projection: John Smoltz

How old is John Smoltz? He'll be 41 on May 15th, but age hasn't stopped him from posting 200+ innings and around 200 strikeouts a year for the past three years since returning to the starting rotation. It seems that there has been no starting pitcher more consistent than Smoltz over that time.

Every year the projection machines have Smoltz getting run down due to age, but every year he goes out and proves the projections wrong. Will 2008 be the year that age finally catches up with Smoltz or will he be rejuvenated by not being the oldest member of the pitching staff thanks to the addition of Tom Glavine.

Smoltz missed a couple of starts last year, but he still went to the post 32 times and racked up 205.2 innings. Cox was a bit more careful with him last year, not letting him go so deep into games and giving him a rest at the first hint of an injury. That still produced an ERA in the top-5 in the NL and enough strikeout to rank third in the NL.

So it seems the only real question with John Smoltz is when will age catch up with him. It doesn't seem to have affected him the last three years as he surged to become the first pitcher in the history of baseball with 200 wins and 150 saves in a career. It sure seems like he could pitch until he reaches 250/150, and with the Braves solid offense and more stable bullpen, many of those close games he likely should have won in his first two years back in the rotation he may finally start winning.

Here is my typically rose-colored optimistic prediction of Smoltz' stats in 2008:

17-8 with a 2.97 ERA in 215 IP with 204 SO.

Obviously I don't think he'll regress just yet, and maybe luck will finally get him that extra win or two. I don't know if that line is Cy Young worthy, but it's top-5 in the NL (like he's been the last three years).

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my predictions
I think he'll have a persistent sore-arm problem this year, thus giving him:

13-8, 3.38 ERA, 181 IP

by subwindow on Jan 8, 2008 1:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

smoltz for president
2008 Season:

19-4, 3.44 ERA, 203 IP

A tired bullpen blows #20 against the Natspos.

Smoltz regroups and goes 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA in the postseason.

Critics bow to Smoltz as he tips his cap to the Braves faithful at Turner Field. Fireworks shoot from the Coke bottle as the Detroit Tigers leave with only parting gifts and their bats autographed by the man himself.

by adivenjack swings the bat on Jan 8, 2008 2:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I vote for 20....
20-6, 3.89 ERA, 210 IP, 185 K

by secondbass on Jan 8, 2008 4:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Smoltz...
...would have won the Cy in '06, had the Braves bullpen not botched 6 games in which Smoltz left with the lead.

by Smoltzs Beard on Jan 9, 2008 10:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
I preach the cy young in 2006 to my buddies all the time, and I tell them if our bullpen could have saved just two out of those 6 or 7 games they blew for Smoltz, he would have been the hands down winner.

Well enough with relishing the past. With a solid bullpen this year coupled with a solid starting rotation giving the bullpen the extra rest they haven't received the last few years I feel John Smoltz is set up to have another great year. Not to mention that he should have plenty of run support from our great lineup, and he should have an extra little boost in his game with Tommy G being back in the fold.  Also, I haven't seen Smoltz slow down a bit and I think he is pitching as good as ever. I mean in 2007 he was:
-3rd in K's
-4th in ERA
-5th in K's per 9
-1st in SO to Walk ratio
-and he could still pump up a fastball to 97 mph's when he needed to.

I just don't see him slowing down just yet, but if he were to slow down, he would still be one of the best pitchers in the league.

Anyways, I love Smoltz and I think he deserves another Cy Young and this is probably his last year to get one, so my predictions are going to be cy young worthy:

Record 18-7 - wins the bet with Tiger this year -
ERA 3.22
IP  230

and then to top it off, 2 wins and a MVP in the world series striking out a former teammate in Edgar Renteria to clinch the world championship against the team that traded him to the Braves 21 years ago (wishful thinking, but that would be awesome)
 

by whunt13 on Jan 10, 2008 12:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm
I'll be bullish considering Smoltz will pitch the balance of the year at 41.

26 GS, 167 IP, 164 H, 38 BB, 72 R, 64 ER, 137 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.38 K/9

No idea on wins. Braves bullpen should be similar to last year's version leaving him with somewhere around 11-14 Wins.

by 17843 on Jan 9, 2008 1:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The Old Grey Mule.....
...he just ain't what he used to be. I forsee the season coming to an end early with shoulder issues and a season ending trip to see Dr. Andrews.  He has a good first 20 starts and then the last 4 are horrid with intermittent DL visits.

24 GS, 157 IP, 10 W, 7 L, 4.01 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 122 K.

Crosby The Anti-Gondeee

by crosby on Jan 10, 2008 3:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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