Community Projection: Brian McCann

by gondeee on Jan 4, 2008 9:55 AM EST in Community Projections

Did Braves catcher Brian McCann have an off-year in 2007? His average was down, his strikeouts were up, his walks were down, his power was down - it sure seemed like an off-year. Of course, with only one other full season to compare it to we don't really know what kind of major league hitter McCann will be. The silver linings to his 2007 season were that his RBI total was just about the same, he played in nine more games than he did in 2006, and while his homerun output was down he did add more doubles.

There's also the factor of the injuries, which are always a concern with catchers and seem like they will be a cause for continued concern for McCann. He injured his finger in early May, and then injured his ankle in early June, an injury that would reappear several times, and then to top it off his injured his right knee the following month. He didn't spend any time on the disabled list like he did when he injured his ankle in 2006, but the small nagging injuries may have taken their toll on the consistency of our young backstop.

Indeed once McCann finally got healthy in late July and August, his average rebounded and his power returned, but not quite to the level he had sustained the previous season. The real question is whether Brian McCann is the type of hitter he showed he could be in 2006 or the hitter he was in 2007? According to PECOTA's 2007 forecast, McCann fell into about the 25th percentile of what his statistical projections said he would do.

Brian McCann's Career Stats:

My take on McCann is that he'll put up numbers somewhere between what he did in 2006 and 2007, but they will be closer to his numbers last year. I give him a chance to get back over the 20 homerun mark, and in a batting order that includes a full year of Mark Teixeira I can see Heap going over the 100 RBI mark for the first time. Here's what I think his key stats will look like in 2008 assuming he's relatively healthy:

.302/.338/.489 with 22 HR, 104 RBI, 38 BB, and 68 SO.

I don't think his average will drop below the .270 he put up last year, especially if he stays healthy, but I don't know if he can repeat the .333 average he put up in 2006. In the comments section tell us the line you think Heap will post this year.

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Comments

Heap

I believe Heap is the real deal or the Bravos wouldn't have jumped on his contract the way they did. That combined with the slew of young catchers that have beent traded to other teams would suggest he is our man and will be for a while.

BA - .325
RBI's - 105
HR's - 22
BB's - 25

Heap is going to see some pitches in this sick lineup. I wouldn't doubt he'll be back to his '06 form.

by Chester Highwater on Jan 4, 2008 10:25 AM EST reply actions

2006 was a fluke...

...and I'll tell you why. As a player relatively new to MLB in 2006, his numbers for that season are going to be inflated because no one knew how to pitch him or had seen him enough to know. Also, if you review his MiLB statistics, at no point had he hit .300/.360/.500 during his time in the minors.

My thought is that what we saw from Heap in 2007 is what we can count on year in, year out. The statistics that gondeee gave would be nice if that were to take place but I honestly believe we are looking at:

.285/.340/.465 19HR, 90RBI, 35BB, 68K

That's still more production than we have had from the catching position in a long time but well below the inflated expectations of Braves fans.

Crosby The Anti-Gondeee

by crosby on Jan 4, 2008 10:31 AM EST reply actions

Flukiness

With two full seasons and a piece of another under McCann's belt, it's fairly apparent that his 2006 was really lucky, his 2007 was really unlucky, or both. There is a pretty significant disparity in his babip in the two seasons, so I would expect some progression towards some sort of mean in 2008. His 2007 was almost identical to his minor league numbers though, so my prediction is

.280/.365/.470 23HR, 95 RBI, 55BB, 60K

In my prediction for improved walks and OBP I'm taking a flyer that McCann's lasik surgery will improve his pitch identification skills. Don't know if that really happens...just a guess.

by mordecai on Jan 4, 2008 11:49 AM EST reply actions

my predictions

Provided that he stays reasonably healthy:

.290/.340/.500 = .790 OPS, 23 HR, 98 RBI.

by subwindow on Jan 4, 2008 12:35 PM EST reply actions

Mine

.297/.350/.502, 37 2B, 21 HR, 40 BB, 66 K

I basically just estimated PA based on a guess for games played (136 G, 528 PA), I estimated a BB rate halfway between '06/'07 (40 BB), I then estimated a K rate halfway between '06/'07 (66 K), then estimated a K/Out rate halfway between '06/'07 (343 Outs), subtracted that from the at-bats (488 AB, 145 H), then estimated an XBH rate halfway between '06/'07 (58 XBH), estimated a 2B rate halfway between '06/'07 (37 2B, 21 HR).

For reference, this was the top five NL catchers in OPS (.843 Martin, .775 Snyder, .772 McCann, .768 Bard, .735 Ruiz) and the AL (.970 Posada, .879 Martinez, .808 Mauer, .787 Varitek, .755 Johjima). So, I think we can expect McCann to again be one of the best catchers in baseball; probably with Martin as the best catcher in the NL.

by 17843 on Jan 4, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions

dur??

I don't care what he does as long as we reach the playoffs!!

by seifer300 on Jan 4, 2008 2:48 PM EST reply actions

b-ri

the braves have given mccann the man multiple votes of confidence (new contract, traded salty) so it would be safe to assume they feel he is the real deal. Predicting his season could turn out to be the most difficult though because he has so many factors that play into this prediction. Where will he hit in this new lineup? Can he stay healthy? Which year was the fluke? The fluke question isnt as much a problem with me though because both years produced an all star season. But another important factor can prove to be how frenchy plays. to me those two feed off each other and when one is doing well, the other strives to do better. Condsidering that i think McCann, after 2+ seasons of play, has picked up the tips and tricks to staying healthy as a major league catcher and francoeur's potential to have a solid season, McCann should have no problem putting up another all star season. especially with that lineup he has to work with.

prediction:

.295/.340/.490 22 HR, 40 2B, 110 RBI, 35 BB, 50 SO

by MIZIKE74 on Jan 4, 2008 2:53 PM EST reply actions

I'm a bit optimistic....

.343/.365/.520/ 28 HR, 36 2B, 110 RBI, 40 BB, 38 SO

I think McCann is the real deal, and if he stays healthy, I think we will all see why indeed the Braves moved quick to lock him up long term AND trade away Saltalamacchia.

by secondbass on Jan 4, 2008 4:46 PM EST reply actions

PS Hey Gondee.....

Is it too much trouble to save these predictions and have a tally at the end of the season a la our daily game picks? Just curious....

by secondbass on Jan 4, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

Absolutely

That's why I created a separate section called Community Projections - so it will be easy to come back to. Projections are such a waste of time, but damn they're fun - and more fun when you come back to them at the end of the year to see how close you were.

by gondeee on Jan 6, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

McCann Can

My predictions are 301/.349/.568/ 26 HR,38 2B, 114 RBI, 47 BB, 51 KO

by braves077 on Jan 4, 2008 5:23 PM EST reply actions

No offense meant

But it's completely impossible for your slash stats and 2B/HR/BB to be reconciled.

secondbass's also are impossible.

by 17843 on Jan 4, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

Well whatever...

I'm no stat man....everything will be way high - use my HR etc predictions and plug them into the other averages.
Picky, picky!

by secondbass on Jan 4, 2008 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

my prediction

.290/20/100/60 walks/70 strikeouts. I like nice round numbers.

by bigjoe on Jan 4, 2008 6:26 PM EST reply actions

McCann's importance

I don't know what McCann will hit in 2008. I suppose I would guess, maybe, .280 with 24 HRs.

But here's the thing, and there is no getting around this. The ultimate importance of a major league baseball team's starting catcher lies in the areas of reliability, solid defensive performance, and handling the pitching staff well.

For a 23 year old kid, McCann handles pitchers well, and should get even better with more ML experience. But he has had some defensive lapses at times. I think some of those were due to the lingering effects of injuries, but that is not clear yet.

So far in his major league career, McCann has been injury-prone. That's not his fault, but it's a fact. He played in 139 games in 2007, and 130 games in 2006, but he has been slowed by various ankle, knee, and hand injuries much of that time. That's probably why his offensive stats dipped a little in 2007. Unless Javy Lopez has an amazing renaissance, the Braves need McCann to stay healthier in 2008 if they are going to make a run for the East Division pennant.

McCann is still very young. Even McCann's "down" 2007 season would have been very good for 80% of the catchers in major league baseball. Fans should not underestimate McCann's importance to this team as one of its young leaders in the clubhouse, either. Having already signed a long term contract, McCann has become a key component of the team's nucleus. If McCann can manage to stay healthier, play solid defense, get 500-600 ABs, and drive in 90-100 runs (all very achievable), then he will be a huge asset to the Braves regardless of his BA. But if he spends a lot of time on the bench or the DL, this team will be in trouble. I think that's the bottom line.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Jan 5, 2008 6:16 AM EST reply actions

McCann

I agree that a lot of our success will depend on McCann this year. I also think that you are right about how well he handles the pitching staff, I mean John Smoltz insists that McCann always catches him (that has to say something right there).

As far as McCann staying healthier, I think you are right about that to a degree. Yes, I think much of his BA struggles this year occurred mainly when he was battling that sore finger. He was hitting very well before he hurt this finger and I think it took a long time to recover from that. But you have to give it to the guy, he is a gamer, he never complained about the injuries or used them as excuses for his decline at the plate. Plus as you mentioned he play 139 games for the Braves this year, I would take that every year. That is a lot of games for a catcher. There were only 3 other catchers in all of baseball that played more games than McCann. These catchers were Jorge Posada (played only five more games), Victor Martinez (played 26 games as a DH or 1st Base), and Russel Martin (this guy is just a freak of nature - no catcher plays that many games behind the plate).

So essentially, if you take out Martinez because he played a lot of games at 1st and DH, then only 2 catchers played more than McCann. Playing 139 games while battling injuries is quite an accomplishment and I think that this proves that we have a tough and durable catcher. I hope that he stays "healthier", but playing through injuries is the nature of the beast when you play catcher, so if he continues to give us 130+ games a year and doesn't dip below his numbers from last year then I think that is all we can really ask out of this guy (I mean 90% of baseball teams would take these All-Star caliber numbers in a second from their catcher). So, if he does somehow replicate his numbers from 2006 then I think we will just need to look at this as an added bonus.

My projections for 2008:

.295/.345/.528 - 22 Homeruns, 92 RBI

by whunt13 on Jan 5, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

Games Played by other catchers

Martin: 151
Martinez: 147
Posada: 144

by whunt13 on Jan 5, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

To be fair

McCann only played 132 games at catcher. But yeah, catching isn't an everyday job and no catcher should be expected to play everyday.

by 17843 on Jan 5, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions

And

Pudge Rodriguez in his MVP season in 1999 "only" played 141 games at catcher, so McCann's doing fine. I'd just like to see him stay healthy for a full season.

Martin - 145
Posada - 138
Johjima - 133
McCann - 132
Kendall - 132
Pierzynski - 130
Paulino - 129
B. Molina - 129
Pudge - 127
Varitek - 125
Schneider - 122
V. Martinez - 121

From what I can see that's the top 12 by games played at catcher. The fact that not only was McCann the second best OPS catcher in the NL, but also played the second most games is impressive and speaks to his value.

by 17843 on Jan 5, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

thanks for the clarification

I forgot to take into account pinch hitting....but you definitely reitterated my point well, he is extremely valuable even with last years decline at the plate. So if he can improve on last years numbers or duplicate his 2006 performance I think the Braves pretty much got a steal in the long term contract we signed him to because other teams would be throwing all sorts of money at a guy like this.

by whunt13 on Jan 5, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

Approach

I agree that his numbers will be between the two years. Watching him last year his approach at the plate appeared to be a little less fluid or relaxed? When he was killing the ball in '06 he reminded me of Brett in his prime. He almost looked he was slow at the plate...until you watched his bat clear the zone.

I think the Power numbers are about right...18-22 hrs with his slugging % falling in the high .400's. However, I do think you will see his OBP increase from '07 a great deal. You can't expect him to sustain a .333 BA. I see him hitting somewhere around .290 but I think you can expect his batting eye to only get better. He is only what...23 or 24? Most hitters don't his their peak years until 27. Therefore, expect his K's to decline and his walks to go up.
For 2008: .290/.375 20 98.

However, I think you will see him go up (assuming healthy and a decent line up around him) in 2009: .295/.385 23 105

by calbers on Jan 5, 2008 5:11 PM EST reply actions

Bigger picture

I agree with Calbers.

McCann drove in 93 runs in 2006 and 92 runs in 2007. Whether he hits .270 or .333, he is an offensive asset to the Braves, because most major league teams simply don't get 90+ RBIs from their starting catcher. If he hits .280+ with 20+ HRs and 90+ RBIs with any consistency, then his offensive prowess will never be seriously questioned.

McCann handles pitchers well, as shown by Smoltz's well-known fondness for him. McCann's overall defensive performance needs to improve, but (as Calbers observed) he is still only 23 years old and should get better with more experience and healthier legs.

In the bigger picture, the Braves are basically set behind the plate as long as McCann doesn't get knocked out of the lineup by injuries for any significant period of time. The $64,000 questions with this team are (1) can they rebuild their starting rotation and (2) can they either re-sign Mark Teixeira or make something positive out of his pending departure?

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Jan 6, 2008 8:37 AM EST reply actions