BravesRangers Top Prospects

by gondeee on Jan 3, 2008 8:41 AM EST in Braves Minor League News

I'm back from holiday and ready for a new year and a new run at the postseason. I refreshed my appetite for baseball in Costa Rica, and I remembered what the word dominating means after watching the Dawgs crush the Hula-boys on my new 46" HDTV - oh, happy day! Of course, after only three days of watching this near-perfect picture, there's no way I can go back to watching "regular" TV - I really hope Sports South goes HD before the baseball season starts. Also, many thanks to Joe "The Hammer" Hamrahi for filling in while I was in the tropics.

Since getting back I was looking over some sites to see what I missed and I came across a lot of former Braves farm hands holding high spots on the Rangers' top prospect list (as ranked by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus):

Five-Star Prospects

Neftali Feliz, RHP

Four-Star Prospects

Eric Hurley, RHP
Elvis Andrus, SS
Engel Beltre, OF
Michael Main, RHP
Chris Davis, 3B

Three-Star Prospects

Taylor Teagarden, C
Blake Beavan, RHP
Matt Harrison, RHP
Max Ramirez, C
German Duran, 2B

Ugh! That would make four former Braves in the top-10 - of course, one of them got there through a second trade. I hate the fact that we have to keep feeling the burn from the Teixeira trade (dammit will we resign him already!). Feliz, Andrus, Harrison, and Ramirez are now wearing the Ranger uniform instead of the Braves'. It's a bit shocking to see Feliz at number one, but we've heard he has great stuff and I suppose that wasn't lost on the Rangers - even for a kid so far away from the majors.

Andrus ranks pretty high on KG's list, but he still holds off on praising the young infielder too much - as his tools have yet to fully blossom. He says that in a perfect world Andrus would compare to Edgar Renteria. It's interesting that in 2007 the Braves traded away a shortstop who could be the next Edgar Renteria (Elvis), traded away the real Edgar Renteria, and still have another young shortstop who could also turn into the next Edgar Renteria (Escobar).

Left-handed starter Matt Harrison dropped a little in the eyes of Goldstein. Last year KG ranked him as the second best prospect in the Braves organization behind Salty, but this year he only ranks ninth in the Rangers' system. Goldstein called Harrison a "number two or three [starting pitcher] on most staffs" last year, but now only projects him to be "a solid number 3 or 4 starter." He seems a little scared by the amount of time Harrison missed due to various injuries this past year.

Max Ramierz is the fourth former Braves' prospect on his list. Ramirez was the young catcher traded by the Braves in exchange for Bob Wickman in 2006. He was twice blocked in our system, and is still not a very good defensive backstop and will likely end up being a DH if he makes the majors.

Goldstein also lists his "sleeper" in the Rangers system, and low and behold it's one of those other players we traded away:

Almost lost in the Teixeira trade, left-hander Beau Jones has been slow to develop, mostly due to control issues, but he's still a southpaw with plus velocity and a very good breaking ball who some feel is on the brink of a major step forward.

Oh, and Salty is listed as the best player under 25 - that would be all five of the prospects we sent to Texas. Oh well, we know we still have a strong minor league system. I eagerly await the Braves top-11 from KG, which should be out in the next week and a half.

In the mean time, January is usually an excruciatingly slow month for baseball news - even more excruciating than late December. During this slow time we'll stat off by filling the void with community projections. Instead of just throwing my "know-it-all" opinion out there, I will instead introduce each player and give a best case, a worst case, and a most likely line for what their 2008 stats might be. I'll use some PECOTA, but since we're hard-core Braves fans who follow all these players night and day we know them better than a statistical prediction does. We'll try to look beyond just stats to see what kind of season each Braves player will have next year - and of course everyone can chime in with their thoughts as well.

I will follow the player listing on the left side of the site for the most part, likely jumping from hitters to pitchers from week to week. The first one will be up tomorrow, and it should be a heap of fun.

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SportSouth HD

Comcast has SS on HD ch: 848
For HD Braves Home games ch: 755

by surge on Jan 3, 2008 1:21 PM EST reply actions

Ah, yes

good call on channel 755, I forgot about that one. So I've got all home games and Wednesday games covered - still not good enough.

by gondeee on Jan 3, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

Bigger Picture.

I certainly think that Andrus will continue to drop as he doesn't fulfill his "promise". Feliz is far too far away to call a five-star prosepct and I'm sure he'll drop a little lower before he hits the majors. All in all, I don't mind trading a handful of 3-star prospects for an elite 1B in his prime.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Jan 3, 2008 3:59 PM EST reply actions

my favorite brave moment so far

When I yelled HEAP and our poor ol' scruffy dawg was very confused as to why some random person in Florida was calling him by his nickname. He replied with a very confused "sup".

by RehabReject on Jan 3, 2008 4:16 PM EST reply actions

Not to worry

We sent only one "sure thing" to Texas, Salty. Now, he's likely to turn into a above average catcher, possibly an all-star, but to add a elite power bat for a high leverage season and a half, it was worth it.

The trade of Feliz doesn't bother me; Goldstein overrates him terribly because he's quite simply an elite power arm at Low A-ball who doesn't have a terribly good breaking ball or change-up. Now, that all may change in the next three years, but he's more likely to end up as Jorge Julio than Pedro Martinez. We also have absurd young pitching depth; Feliz was the best, but you can't argue against Locke, Rohrbaugh, Evarts, and Co.

Andrus was another trade from depth as we had Lillibridge and Escobar both more advanced and as talented. His season last year was poor at Myrtle Beach (even factoring in the park) and his season in Bakersfield wasn't as good as it appears (factoring in the California league). He's still got the chance to be Edgar or whatever, but he needs to hit to do that. If not, he probably can be a useful glove man, but that's not particularly valuable.

Harrison has injury issues, but even if he's healthy he's no better than James/Reyes in my opinion. He's a good bet to be a #4 starter, but not much better. Beau Jones was simply passed on the depth charts by better pitches (Hanson, Richmond, Rohrbaugh, Locke, Evarts...) and was expendable. I expect him to end up as a nice reliever with the fastball/breaking ball, but he had issues with control even when he was pitching well in Low A-ball with the Rangers (4.0 BB/9 and 4.1 BB/9 total).

All told if everything breaks right for the Rangers, they get two decent lefty starters, a power closer/#2 starter, an elite catcher, and an above average shortstop. But everything isn't going to break right for them.

Remember that Atlanta got two months of Mahay solidifying the bullpen, eight months from Teixeira at first, a draft pick from Mahay, and either 2 draft picks, prospects, or 5-7 years of Teixeira next fall. Not a bad haul at all.

by 17843 on Jan 3, 2008 5:05 PM EST reply actions

matt harrison

Matt Harrison to me was one of the best prospects we had. At the time when Jo Jo was called up to AAA Harrison was pitching better (but with a worse record because of an extreme run support issue). I consider Harrison a can't miss for the big leagues (excluding injury). He doesn't really have injury issues..He had a severe case of turf toe and almost had to have big time surgery. He was struggling with his toe (which was really a freak/odd mechanical thing due to dragging his foot..) He's a tough guy and a competitor and I wish he was still a brave. I don't recall any other injuries that allowed him to miss time..and when he came back healthy he dominated fall league hitters. He's a guy that to me doesn't need to prove a thing. He's one of the most underrated pitchers outside of the player/coach community. I think its hard to compare Jo Jo and Chuck to Harrison primarily because they are all different creatures. Jo Jo's stuff is more electric but doesn't know how to pitch as well and has less command, Chuck has the invisi-ball, and Harry is just knocking on the door. Beau Jones was a first rounder for a reason. Throwing 94-95 as an 18 year old in rookie ball with the "best curveball" noting in BA. He was injured and had to have bone chips removed from his elbow..Since then he hasn't been the same. Velocity is down quite a bit, but his prospect status was once every bit as high as evarts or rorbaugh,locke..Andrus is one of those guys that you either love him and think he's the next big thing, or you look at him as an over-hyped player. One thing he's always had going for him was that he was always "so young", but now that hes nearing his 20's and reaching physical maturity we'll see if he's worth all the hype. I also think it's hard to compare feliz to locke or evarts..First off Feliz is younger than locke, rohrbough, and evarts while pitching at a higher level..He's still throwing very well. And its not that feliz doesn't possess a breaking ball, its that he doesn't need to throw it right now. I think he's got a better raw arm than all three of these guys. It's going to be fun to watch how he comes along..We wanted texiera and we paid a dear price.

by bravos408 on Jan 4, 2008 12:51 AM EST reply actions

The Comparison

Of Feliz to Locke and Evarts was age based only.

Both guys have better secondary stuff than Feliz, while Feliz has the mid-90s fastball neither guy has. Locke (especially) and Evarts still strike me as much more likely to become useful #2/3 starters in the big leagues than Feliz, mostly because they are only a few months older and their secondary stuff and command/control. Feliz has the higher ceiling obviously. And if you'll read, I never said Feliz didn't have a breaking ball, just not a "terribly good breaking ball or change-up". But he's young, he has time.

Beau Jones is now 21 and has shown no ability to move up more than one level a year. I've heard nothing positive about his change-up. This is what Ballew wrote about him last spring:

"he must make major strides with his control, command, and change-up while becoming more consistent with the fastball and curve."

Like I said, the fastball and curve are both good pitches, but the scouting report says reliever to me. That's not devoid of value, but it's not much to lose.

by 17843 on Jan 4, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

The problem with Harrison...

...is that he doesn't have a third pitch beyond his fastball and curve. He is not exactly overpowering either as you can see from his low strikeout rate. The team has one two-pitches lefty in the rotation already in Chuckie and does not need another. Furthermore, Harrison's minor league stats are much less impressive than James's. I personally have great doubt on how successful Harrison will be in the major league level.

by kc @ Talking Chop on Jan 4, 2008 1:08 AM EST reply actions

Stuff translates sometimes

sometimes no stuff gets outs.. Chuck james has two pitches, a changeup and a fastball. His slider is a "show me" at best. Harrison has 4 pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change). Harrison's numbers are extremely consistent, and if they translate to the big leaues, we're looking at a possible hall of famer (given longevity). Also, Harrison was 21 years old all season..Thats very young..he's on their 40 man and will most likely make his debut this coming year..when chuck was 21 he had just signed..Harrison is strides ahead of where chuck was at 21.
Beau Jone's stats are very good if you take away one season..And also factor in the fact he had bone chips in his elbow this season and needed surery...He was given an opportunity in high A but was pitching hurt..And you can pitch in the big leaues with two plus big league pitches and a moderate third..Chuck can do it with half the stuff beau has demonstrated. Most of the time guys with 3 or four plus pitches are used in the bullpen, but it also has to do with the comfort level of starting or relieving. So wherever a guy pitches best is where he'll most likely wind up for obvious reasons. But dont make the mistake of assuming that just because a guy has 3 or more plus pitches that he will always be a starter, and don't make the mistake of assuming a guy with 2 pitches cant succeed. I understand you're going with majority here, but odd things don't cease to happen.
I think if you look at all the arms in the braves system, there simply isnt enough room for 5 starters
we have
rohrbough, hanson, morton, heathe, broadway, cuevas, evans, lyman..These guys all have great arms and need to go somewhere..then guys like locke and evarts, medlen etc will make strides just like everyone else..but like i've said before, prospects come and go as easily as they came, for example beau jones, who was highly hyped.

by bravos408 on Jan 5, 2008 3:12 AM EST reply actions

correction in my statement

"Most of the time guys with 3 or four plus pitches are used in the bullpen" i meant to say "used in the rotation"

by bravos408 on Jan 5, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

Harrison...

...does not throw four pitches. I have read that from numerous sources. Reyes does throw all four pitches you mentioned for Harrison.

by kc @ Talking Chop on Jan 6, 2008 11:21 PM EST up reply actions

Ah Sources..

I mean absolutely no disrespect to you at all, but your sources are wrong..
I wish there was some way I could prove this to you but I can't..except to tell you that he does throw 4 pitches and give you a source that says he does throw 4 (but who knows if this source is any more accurate..) i guess you'll have to wait till you see him in 08

December 23, 2007
Prospect Previews: Starting Pitcher #7
7) Matt Harrison -- 22 YO LHP (2007 Trade Acquisition)

When I first started sketching out the top 25 starting pitching prospects in the system, I put Harrison in the middle of the middle and then the AFL season progressed (he finished 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA in seven starts) and I kept bumping him up until he landed here.

The 6'4", 220 lb. Harrison is a textbook Grady Fuson pitchability guy. He doesn't post impressive K/9's (6.02 for Double-A Mississippi last year; 6.67 for High-A Myrtle Beach in 2006). His G/F ratios have never been particularly severe on the grounder side (he's about a 1.50 G/F guy overall). But he's a pitch-to-contact guy who is known as a guy who can throw four pitches (FB, change, curve, slider) for strikes in any count and whose success is the result of pitching savvy as well as an ability to locate and change speeds. He's a pitcher who is always going to need a strong all-around defensive ballclub behind him.

Hyped as a Tom Glavine starter-kit since early in his pro career (as is ususally the case for lefties coming up in the Braves system), Harrison does in fact seem to be quite like Glavine (and Kenny Rogers) in that he likes to works the corners, usually low and away until the hitters give in to that, and only then come in on the hands, but always staying away from the middle of the plate. Everyone seems to agree that his change is his best offering, though he gets good marks for all four of his offerings.

It was reported that Harrison had a shoulder problem when he came into the system, but that's not entirely true. Rangers minor league pitching coordinator Rick Adair told me that Harrison's shoulder was fine. It was a foot problem that had shut him down for the final six weeks of the summer. He did experience some minor shoulder tightness, but that was deemed to be the result of overcompensating for the foot and it was not an issue by the time he was traded to Texas at the deadline.

Harrison stands out in a Rangers system that is loaded with raw, high-upside power pitchers in that he's the type of pitcher that John Hart and Buck Showlater seemed to reject. I think it is a credit to the level-headedness of the current Rangers braintrust that they insisted on getting their hands on this guy even though he's not exactly the type of pitcher they've been focused on developing in recent years.

With a spot on the 40-man roster, Harrison will almost certainly get a shot at the now-depleted Rangers rotation at some point this summer, but he'll begin in Oklahoma (possibly even Frisco). I expect him to settle in as a mid-rotation anchor for years to come no later than opening day, 2009.

December 23, 2007

http://rangersfarmreport.mlblogs.com/

by bravos408 on Jan 7, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

Sources...

...No disrespect to you either bravos408. I actually read on DOB's blog more than once that Harrison only throws fastball and curve, and I have read the same thing in other places. While I can not reference my sources like you can, I guess we will only find out when Harrison makes it to the major league!!!

by kc @ Talking Chop on Jan 7, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

Yessir

Much love kind sir

by bravos408 on Jan 7, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions

sorry , I had to

http://orioles.scout.com/a.z?s=251&p=8&c=1&nid=2664166

by bravos408 on Jan 8, 2008 9:54 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks!

Thanks for the updated information. I guess he did add couple pitches to his arsenal since the trade...on the other hand, Chucky throws "sliders" as well. I guess you can tell what direction I am going with this conversation.

At the end of the day, I have my reservations about Matt as I rank him behind Reyes, Jurrjens, Hanson, and Rohrbough. His low strikeout rate and high hit-allow rate really concern me. He reminds me of Bruce Chen.

by kc @ Talking Chop on Jan 8, 2008 6:46 PM EST up reply actions

I can dig it

He actually had three pitches his whole career, his best probably his change..He topped out at 96 in 06 then 96 in 07, so he throws plenty hard (only works 91-93) but that still good velocity. I can totally see where you're coming from with putting reyes ahead, and only time will tell who makes the better big league guy.. He started throwing his slider in AA mississippi. He lacked the command with his curve that he has gained with a slider being that a slider is thrown more like a fastball (which is easier to command). Also, there's nothing wrong with adding another breaking ball to compliment another average breaking ball.. I love chuck but I wouldn't quite put harrison's slider as a "chuck james slider"

by bravos408 on Jan 9, 2008 12:24 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks again!

I guess I am not discounting the fact that Harrison is not a fine prospect. However, his lack of dominance in his minor league stats reminds me more of Bruce Chen and HoRam than a possible all-star you indicated. I can see a fine fourth starter career instead. Nevertheless, only time will tell which one of us has a more accurate assessment on his future!

by kc @ Talking Chop on Jan 9, 2008 1:06 AM EST up reply actions

KC

I dig your style...let the games begin

by bravos408 on Jan 9, 2008 1:51 AM EST up reply actions

and

i hope for beau's sake he doesn't wind up a jake stevens who was a top ten guy then fell by the wayside after 4 seasons in a ball.

by bravos408 on Jan 5, 2008 3:17 AM EST reply actions

Beau Jones

Doesn't have the maturity issues Stevens had, or did I miss something?

And Harrison as a Hall of Famer? Even if his stats transfer, we're looking at a solid #2 starter who can give you a mid 3.00s ERA, a 2 BB/9, 7 K/9, and 200 IPs. Certainly valuable, but not Hall of Fame material.

I'm just not happy with how we sold low on him.

by 17843 on Jan 5, 2008 2:49 PM EST reply actions

hahah

yeah beau jones definitely doesn't have the issues stevens did..but like stevens, they were both highly "rated" at the low A levels (both top 10) which means a lot to some people.
And Harrison is a guy that will go out and pitch 7 innings an outting..Compare his stats with some guys in the hall of fame..its not that much of a reach. I don't think salty will prove to be more valuable than harrison..who's he going to be up against in 2 years to be up for a number one job? the rangers aren't exactly a powerhouse..i think the braves got the bad end of the deal even though tex is a stud

by bravos408 on Jan 5, 2008 3:47 PM EST reply actions

Uh

Whether or not Harrison is labeled a #1 (I don't even think he will be with Hurley and Kiker in the system), it matters if he pitches like an ace. I haven't seen anyone say 1. his pitches are that good, 2. his makeup is ace quality, 3. his command/control are ace quality.

To paraphrase what BA puts before each Prospect Handbook, the difference between a #1 and #2 starter isn't their stuff, it's their command/control and their makeup. And I'm still not buying the HoF argument.

Tom Glavine has a 3.51 career ERA, but he also has 14 200+ IP seasons, 6.5 IP/GS, 2 Cy Youngs, 10 All-stars, and a 3.42 ERA in 35 postseason starts. It's entirely premature to expect Harrison to be able to do something like that for 21 years.

Is Barry Zito a Hall of Famer? Doubtful, but he's a pretty good comparison for Harrison's best case career.

by 17843 on Jan 5, 2008 4:08 PM EST reply actions

uh

ok well obviously its alittle premature to assume he'll be a hall of famer..i was saying if he translates his stats over a lengthy period of time blah blah blah

by bravos408 on Jan 6, 2008 12:28 AM EST reply actions