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The Anti-Andruw Movement

There are many on this blog and other blogs as well as members of the mainstream media who have been down on Andruw Jones lately. And with the way he's been playing it's not hard to see why. But now we get this excerpt from a new book by Jayson Stark, who writes over at the world leader, about how he believes that Andruw Jones is the "most overrated center fielder of all time." I guess I should have asked Scott Boras to have a seat before he read that, because it is the exact opposite of what the super-agent will be claiming as he trots Jones from city to city extolling the virtues of what at that time will likely be 10 straight gold gloves and 375 career homeruns. Mister Stark would tell GMs to put down the pen and close the checkbook because when it comes to Andruw's defense he has this to say:

From 1998 through 2002, [Andruw] was still That Guy. He topped 400 putouts five years in a row. No outfielder had done that since Mays (1954-1958). He was The Best. Clearly. But since then? Not the same player.

He peaked at 493 putouts in 1999. He was still slurping up 461 in 2001. But by 2005 he was down to 365. In 2006 he was at 377. I tried looking at his total chances per game. Still way down. We're talking about 100 or so balls a year he wasn't getting to that he used to. A hundred.

I thought: that can't be right. A friend suggested maybe it was a function of the Braves' pitching staff. Maybe they were just throwing fewer fly balls than they used to. Great point. So I checked. Fortunately, there's a stat that measures that, too -- zone rating (the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical zone).

So I called up the 2006 zone rating of all qualifying major league center fielders on ESPN.com. Guess who was last on the list? Yessir, Andruw. He also finished last in 2004. And fifth from the bottom in 2005. I kept checking. As recently as 2001, he led his league in zone rating.

According to Stark, at one time Jones really WAS all he was cracked up to be, but now just five years on he's the MOST overrated. "Most overrated" is a bit harsh. Jones may be slowing a bit, as has Griffey, as did Mays, as have many others, but "most overrated!" His defense was the one part of his game we Braves fans thought was a constant. Perhaps Stark is right that watching him day in and day out one doesn't get a good feel for the overall picture.

The other part of Andruw's game that Braves fans have been moaning about this year is his offense. This is the other big thing which Stark points to trying to support his most overrated claim. I probably agree with this a bit more:

But even Jones's big offensive surge has been misleading. Amazingly, one scout called him "not a very good offensive player. ... If he wants to hit a home run, he'll try to hit a home run -- at the expense of everything else."

He smoked 51 home runs in 2005, a very seductive number. But I checked every 50-homer season in baseball history. Again, I had a tough time digesting what I found. Jones had the lowest batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and park-adjusted OPS-plus that any player has ever had in a 50-homer season. He reached base fewer times than any 50-homer man ever. And if you take in the bigger picture, with Bill James's incisive runs-created stat, Andruw "created" fewer runs than any 50-homer man ever had. In fact, he created fewer runs that year with his 51-homer season than three hitters who didn't even have a 20-homer season -- Brian Roberts, Derek Jeter, and Brian Giles.

Wow! Just heaping on the hate for AJ. But Stark is looking at Jones through an outsider's viewpoint and from a statistical viewpoint. This all begs the question, "have we really been missing the big picture about Andruw Jones?" This season notwithstanding most Braves' fans and people in baseball have held Jones up to the microscope and for the most part he's held up, but has he been fooling us all along? Stark brings up the point that our perception of Jones is one that comes from a younger, thinner, faster, more agile Andruw, and that the thick, powerful, all-or-nothing-swinging Andruw we see today is not really the same player.

Stark points to 2001 as the last great defensive season for AJ. We can look at something else that happened around that time as another indicator of Andruw's decline - he stopped stealing bases. He was never a great base stealer, but at least he tried and it was a part of his game. Since 2001 Andruw has not stolen more than 8 bases in any season - this after stealing 20 or more for four straight years from 97 to 2000. Was Andruw changing his game?

Even more evidence can be found in 2001. Up until that season, AJ had averaged 110 strikeouts per full season; only once whiffing more than 107 times. In 2001 he racked up 142 strikeouts, and ever since then he has averaged 131 Ks per year - only once dipping below 125 Ks in a season.

So what do we take away from all of this? Is Andruw Jones the "most overrated" center fielder in baseball history? No, he's not. He may be a bit overrated now, both offensively and defensively. Has he lost a step or two? Probably, most players do with age. But for those of us who watch the Braves day after day Andruw still makes the impossible play look routine, and until this year has been a fairly consistent force in the middle of the Braves offence.

Maybe I can't see it.

Maybe I don't want to admit it. After all, we did watch Andruw grow up with the Braves.

Maybe he really is overrated, or the most overrated. Or maybe he'll get hot all of a sudden and make everyone forget all these statistical failings.

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Andruw
How many steps has Andruw lost to age?  Shouldn't be any since he just turned 30.

How many steps has Andruw lost from "adding on the pounds?"  Quite a few.

Andruw has fallen in love with the long ball and it shows.  He has packed on the pounds in the past 5 years and he swings for the fences no matter the score, men on base, situation, or count.

All he wants to do is hit homers and his approach at the plate reveals that.  I would bet that his constant "all-or-nothing" wild violent off-balance swings harm his back more than the occasional diving catch.

Oh yeah, and telling opposing pitchers that he is "just a pull hitter and will always be a pull hitter" was just genius.  Nothing like telling every pitcher to throw everything outside.

I hate to see him go but If I were Schuerholz, I would think long and hard about committing over $100 million to Andruw for the next 6 or more years.

by dave on May 24, 2007 3:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Chicks (And GMs) Dig The Long Ball.
Andruw was seduced by the money and acclaim that comes with being a premium power hitter with a gold glove.  I still believe he's an ace in the outfield and his speed has less to do with his success than his placement.  Andruw is standing under a lot of balls that others have to dive for, not because he's faster, but because he's standing at the right place at the right time.  That has more to do with brains and studying than it does with luck or anything else.  His bat has been overrated because he's only good at getitng the ball over the fence when he actually hits it, but he's a fine hitter and very solid fielder.  I don't doubt that he'll be in the Hall when it's all said and done because he'll put together an undeniable resume, but he won't be (as I once thought he could be) one of the greatest of all time at a critical point in the diamond.

by ejruiz on May 24, 2007 4:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Complete BS.
I've never wanted to reach through the computer screen and strangle someone more than after I read this article.  Stark piles on some heavy criticsm and all he has to back it up are a couple of statistics and an agreement from some unnamed "scout".

Zone rating is one of the most over-rated stats in all of baseball.  Who is it that is deciding the zone of each individual player?  B/c Andruw made a diving catch in the alley last year, does that now construct part of his zone?  And if it doesn't what value is placed on the catches that AJ outside of his zone?  None.  Which is the same thing that happens when Frenchy or Langy would make a catch inside of AJ's zone...Andruw would be penalized b/c he did not make the put out.

And as far as the put outs are concerned, I'm a firm believer that he has not had to cover as much ground the past few years b/c Francoeur and Langershans are some of the best corner outfielders in the game, and could probably have played CF if Andruw wasn't there (as is happening right now with Langerhans).

He is so critical in the "decline" of Andruw, yet does nothing to compare him to other CFers and their own personnal decline.  True, Andruw does not make as many highlight reel catches as he used to, but that is only b/c he has developed the best first step in the game.  He makes routine catches out of something that a guy like Jim Edmonds (who actually is the most-overrated CF) would have to lay out for.

I won't touch on his offense, because that has never lived up to his true potential (which is real scary if you think about it), but you can't knock the guys defense.  He is only 30, but he has been in the league since before he was 20 so he does have more mileage than we might think.

That's all I'm going to say for now, other than the fact that Stark said he almost robbed Pujols of the MVP in '05 when any baseball fan with the smallest shred of intelligence could see that Andruw threw that team on his back all the way to the playoffs.  If anyone was robbed that year, it was AJ.

by Smoltzs Beard on May 24, 2007 5:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One more thing...
All I had to do was simply click on his player profile and I noticed that he has been playing almost 100 innings less each year then the 5-year period Stark quoted.  Which would certainly effect his decrease in PO's.

by Smoltzs Beard on May 24, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I question his willingness
As 'dave' said above, in this day and age, thirty-years old should be near-peak prime for a guy like AJ.  It is NOT hard to remain in shape at thirty, and it is NOT hard - when you're in a contract year - to at least pretend you're trying as hard as you can, and trying to make adjustments.  In his mind, AJ thinks he'll magically end up with roughly the same numbers he usually ends up with.  Well, that's Strawberry mentality, frankly, and we're getting close to June.  He has a hundred million dollars on the line and he could've shown up in March looking like Apollo Creed instead of Ice Cube.  I thought he'd be kicking ass by now, and I thought he could give us a lift - even though it would be mostly self-serving of him.  He's hurting the Braves but hurting himself much worse.  

by finchy on May 24, 2007 6:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well
I have to be in the middle here.  Andruw may be over-rated but that's only because everyone has had such massive expectations of him from Day One.  

I agree he seemed to lose a step after 2001.  It's not just Zone Rating.  It's BP, which shows him going from legendary to average in 2001.  And it's my own eyes which see hits dropping that he caught in his prime.

His hitting is a bit one-dimensional. But it's not exactly Dave Kingman we're talking about here. The most similar players to him, according to Baseball-Reference.com are Frank Robins, Eddie Matthews, Jonny Bench, Ken Griffey, Ruben Sierra, Al Kaline, Ron Santo, Hank Aaron, Juna Gonzalez and Darryl Strawberry.  That's a pretty elite bunch.

As for his weak 51-homer season, the reason his season was the worst was because 51 homers is elite territory.  He's being compared to some the all-time great seasons.  So he's not babe Ruth or even Albert Pujols.  I would still rate his 2005 better than Vaugn's '98 or Fielder's '90.  And if you drop the criterion just a little bit to 48 of 49 homers, you get Andre Dawson's MVP year of '87, a couple years out of Killebrew; a large number of years that I would put behind Andruw in the list of great seasons.

He does remind me a bit of Ruben Sierra, who had tools out the wazoo and didn't live up to them.  But he's a much better player than Sierra ever was.  The Strawberry comparison is reasonable, but he's a better player than Strawberry and has yet to screw up his life with drugs.  He actually reminds me a bit of Andre Dawson, only with healthy knees and less personality.

Accept Andruw for what he is.  A good-fielding slugger who's going to put 15-20 good-but-not-great years and get into the HOF.  What's wrong with that?  So he's not Willie Mays.  The fact that people can even begin to make the comparison tells you how good he really is.

by mhsiegel14 on May 25, 2007 1:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

PS
PS - saying someone had the worst 51-homer season in baseball history is like saying some woman is the ugliest model in the Victoria's Secret Catalog.  I'll still take it.

by mhsiegel14 on May 25, 2007 1:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

andruw
let me start of by saying that Andruw Jones has been my favorite player ever since he hit two out in the World Series.

ok now with this new article. Its obvious that SABERMETRICS loves to put a number to every single aspect of baseball. they come up with the most random stats that no one even thought existed. It seems to me that the reason SABERMETRICS is around is simply to take out the intangibles of baseball.
of course this looks bad for Andruw. He is certianly not going to head over to the A's anytime soon, but the intangible aspects he brings to the game is harnessed by few players on the braves and even fewer center fielders in the MLB. according to random zone stats, ya he may not get to every ball, but he brings something different to the field than computerized stats. when he is in the game, there is an aura of a great player. that can greatly affect the game. whether it is pitching around him or a runner not running home from second on a line drive to center. Andruw may be having a bad year (at the plate, because ive seen him make some great catches this year) but when he is at bat, everyone knows that there is always a chance that he can take a pitch 430+ feet over the left field wall.

that being said, i do think this is what old JS should do. If Matt Diaz continues with his hot bat and willie harris shows no signs of declining it may be time to move willie to center, matt to right, and trade Andruw for a front rotation starter that can really be the catalyst the braves need to win a WS. I know it will be hard to say good bye but the braves do have OF prospects and it is time to face the facts and look at what is best for the team.

by MIZIKE74 on May 25, 2007 3:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

In defense of Stark
He also says this:

"For the record, I like Andruw. He could play for my team any time. And he's one of the best center fielders I've ever laid eyeballs on. But the idea behind this project is to point out the difference between how we perceive a player and how he's actually playing. And Andruw is not the same player he used to be."

I can't entirely disagree with that.

by mhsiegel14 on May 25, 2007 5:12 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Vindication!
Stark is right and his objective facts prove that Andruw is just ok.  Superstar, no! not even close.  He is getting pretty close to being elected to the all ego team however. Stupid comments about "I am just a pull hitter" and constantly swinging for the fences to show off, who needs that.  He is hurting our team and Bobby and everyone else in the braves world that cares about this team knows it.  Gondeee is a good "homer", cares and loves this team, so do I but he has been blinded by Andruw and the hype.  
When he is gone next year and his 140+ strikeouts and his ridiculous contract, we may get someone who will put the team in front of his own stats, very refreshing.  By the way, when I hear that stupid Public address announcer call aj's name when he comes to the plate, Annndruw  Jones like he is gladiator coming in to slay lions, he is just a .200 hitter, I want to throw the #@&* up. He doesn't desire that intro. How about Andruw Jones center fielder and he is sorry for disappointing all the fans and his fellow playes.
Much better!  

by los angeles braves fan on May 25, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's the problem though...
...the stats he is using are extremely flawed for so many reasons.

I'm not saying that Andruw has not lost a step, because he has.  But when he was and continues to be the best CF in the entire league I find hard to believe that he can be considered over-rated (in reguards to his defense).

by Smoltzs Beard on May 25, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

defense
I have been on the record saying that AJ is the best  defensive center fielder probably ever, but he is just an average hitter, not some superstar.  Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio?

by los angeles braves fan on May 25, 2007 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Strawberry
Comparison I made really has little to do with numbers or off-field problems - which Andruw doesn't seem to have any of.  It really comes down to the fact that here are two gloriously gifted ballplayers who settled.  I hate to see Andruw do this.  We've all worked hard at SOMETHING in our lives and can probably reference a time when we really put it all out there.  Strawberry made a clear decision "I'd prefer to hit 36 HRS and hit 115 RBIs and work a little bit then hit 50 HRS and hit 140 RBIs and work my ass off for my entire career and be a legend.  That man was unbelievably talented, but ultimately seemed satisfied with mediocrity rather then kick it up a notch.  I feel Andruw is doing the same. It's a choice to lose a step as a centerfielder at age thirty, not a given.   Andruw, get in shape, get it together, and make everyone proud, wherever you go.  

by finchy on May 25, 2007 12:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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