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Making the Team Meter: Week 2

Imitation is the highest form of flattery, and the Making the Team Meter has now been twice copied, at Amazin' Avenue and at Twins Territory. We kick off week two of full squad workouts with another edition of the original (ha!) MTM. The games start on Thursday, so there will be much more to examine and include. The next MTM will probably be next Monday, and from there it will be a twice weekly occurrence.

Player, Position Chance Notes
Kelly Johnson, 2B
His defense is continu ing to impress Bobby Cox. We'll start to see it for real later this week when games start.
Gregor Blanco, OF
--
Apparently there was some extra praise for Blanco from the skipper. Until we see him in games, his chances are still even, but he apparently has Eddie Perez on his side.
T.J. Bohn, OF
They say this guy looks more like a surfer than a baseball player. Hum.
Pete Orr, INF
Pete is not yet facing the fact that he will likely be the odd man out in the infield. Despite the support from Cox, unless there's in injury he'll be optioned to the minors.
Brayan Pena, C
Once thought to be a sure bet to backup McCann this season, but comments from Cox about non-roster invitee Corky Miller means Pena might have some competition.
Tony Pena, SS
He is technically in competition with Orr and Aybar, but he's third on that list.
Martin Prado, INF
All the early press is about Kelly Johnson, so Prado's got an uphill battle.
Yunel Escobar, SS
Cox believes that Escobar probably needs more seasoning in the minor leagues, but he's working out all over the infield so that increases his value. He still probably starts the season at Richmond.
Brent Lillibridge, SS
--
While we never know how to take praise from Cox, since he hands it out so freely, he did say that Lil' Brent "looks like a major league player right now."
Corky Miller, C
--
Because of some early camp comments from Cox, Corky could jump into the backup catcher mix.
Carlos Mendez, 1B
Listed as a first baseman, but he's really just another journeyman catcher.
Doug Clark, OF
Long way down on the depth chart.
Willie Harris, OF
Richmond's utility guy.
Kyle Davies, RHP
We sometimes forget that Davies had surgery last year for a torn groin muscle. His stats last year may not be indicative of his true ability as he may have been pitching timidly after the injury. Average against in 2006: April - .214; May - .421 (the groin starts hurting); September - .423 (after injury).
Anthony Lerew, RHP
The early buzz was that he's made strides since last year.
Lance Cormier, RHP
Everyone's talking about Davies, but that doesn't mean Cormier won't make the team.
Manny Acosta, RHP
No buzz about him yet.
Jose Ascanio, RHP
Also no buzz.
Blaine Boyer, RHP
--
He is apparently completely healthy after recovering from arm problems last year and throwing good this spring.
Joey Devine, RHP
--
I would have thought that we would have heard more about Joey.
Jonathan Johnson, RHP
No buzz.
Peter Moylan, RHP
--
Apparently he has a pretty good sense of humor.
Chad Paronto, RHP
I'm eager to see how he does this spring.
Phil Stockman, RHP
He felt no discomfort during his first bullpen session on Thursday.
Tyler Yates, RHP
Another surfer.
Kevin Barry, RHP
Can he work his way back onto the 40-man roster, or even the 25-man roster.
Buddy Carlyle, RHP
These non-roster pitchers have a lot of people to climb over to make the roster.
Steve Colyer, RHP
A lot to overcome.
Matt Harrison, RHP
--
You keep hearing great things about this kid, put they're probably just building him up for next season.

Key:
-- = Chance of making the team is even.
= Chance of making the team is going down.
= Chance of making the team is going up.

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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JS
Anybody know anything about Jonathon Schuerholz?  Is he still in the organization?  If so why is he not at spring training?

by Hizilla on Feb 26, 2007 2:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

JS Jr.
Shuerholz Jr. is still in the organization, and probably headed for Richmond again.  He suffered a regresison last year, hitting below the Mendoza line at AAA.  Maybe that's why he doesn't have a very high preseason profile this year.
Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Feb 26, 2007 2:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What will it take?
Having seen all the offseason developments play out, and having watched the opening of camp with interest, I have already formed a couple of preliminary conclusions about this 2007 team.  I might turn out to be completely wrong, of course, but time will tell.

I think this lineup will be fine offensively, even without LaRoche and Giles.  Although I am very skeptical whether Kelly Johnson can shake off a surgical rehab and a season of rust to solve both the leadoff and 2b voids, I suspect the middle of the lineup is potent enough to carry the offense.  Andruw is in a walk season, so he will probably exceed last year's numbers.  Francouer is due for a significant improvement, and IMO Thorman is better than people think.  If Chipper avoids a physical meltdown, and if McCann is anywhere near his 2006 performance, I think this team scores plenty of runs.  Someone will step up and do a satisfactory job in the leadoff role, whether it is Johnson, Prado, Blanco, Aybar, or somebody out of the blue.  The Braves don't necessarily need the league's best leadoff hitter.  They just need someone who won't strike out much.  It won't be the NL's best offense, but it will be good enough.

The two questions yet to be answered are the defense on the right side of the infield and the effectiveness of the pitching staff.   If Thorman and Prado play, I think the infield defense will be adequate.  But if Kelly Johnson wins the 2b job, he has something to prove defensively.  Maybe Glenn Hubbard can get him through this transition, but it's a new position.  He hasn't played organized baseball in a year, so this is asking a lot.  We will see.  But I think Prado or Aybar will be ready if Johnson isn't.

Regarding the pitching staff, I am completely sold on two positive conclusions.  First, the signing of Wickman and the trades for Gonzalez and Soriano have fixed the Braves' bullpen problems.  Period.  I like Wickman's command and location a lot.  I think the set-up heat from Soriano and Gonzalez will only make Wickman's ability to change speeds even more effective.  With those three guys in the pen, Villareal and Yates will be more effective in reduced roles.  This is a tremendous pen.  My second conclusion is that a strong bullpen will greatly increase the effectiveness of the Braves' starting rotation, because Cox won't necessarily have to push his starters into the seventh and eighth innings anymore.  This pen would have given John Smoltz at least five more victories (and possibly a Cy Young) in 2006.  

One thing still bothers me, though.  And this is where I believe the Braves are still one key player short of challenging for the division pennant.  Even with an improved bullpen, I think the club still needs to bring in one more starter.  I believe John Smoltz and Chuck James will be fine.  While this bullpen will do wonders for Smoltz and James, and may also make Mike Hampton's comeback easier, OTOH I am still concerned about Tim Hudson and the fifth starter.  Plus, Hampton will need at least 5-6 starts to get back his command and his "feel".  Since Hudson's problems often occur in the first inning, I'm not sure this pen will help him as much as it will help Smoltz and Hampton.   Hudson's career is in big trouble unless he can find his formerly outstanding location and command again.  I'm not sure he can.  Kyle Davies threw a great game in Boston in 2005, but he seriously regressed in 2006.  yes, it was due to injury.  But baseball history is replete with stories of young pitches like Herb Score, Kerry Wood, and Len Barker who pitched well briefly.  When a promising career gets sidetracked, injury is a common theme.   Maybe Davies will fare better than that.  But he pitched terribly in September, and that had to hurt his confidence.  So I am not at all convinced the Braves' 2007 starting rotation will be sound with the current personnel.  It seems to me that the addition of one solid veteran starter would make a huge difference for this baseball team since it would allow Cox to send Davies and Cormier back to Richmond for further development, while bringing Hampton along slowly as the fifth starter for now.  I think this is the key missing piece.  I don't know who that would be, or how JS would acquire him, but veterans sometimes become available at the last minute when final cuts come in March.  I would be surprised if JS isn't looking for that type of move in March.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Feb 26, 2007 3:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Too bad
we couldn't get a Jeff Suppan type innings eater during the off season to pitch that "5th" starter position.  We will win games with guys like we had in 03 when we scored a ton of runs.  

Jaret Wright wasn't that good, but he didn't give up a ton of runs and we won most of his starts 6-5 or 7-6.

Cox will use all the spare "starters" we have to fill this role.  Hudson and Hampton will hopefully win 10 games or more each and if Smoltz stays healthy all season we should be right there with the Mets.

by themurph on Feb 27, 2007 10:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hampton
I have to tell you, I just don't buy the optimism over Mike Hampton being trumpeted by a certain member of the media.   Sure, Hampton should come back nicely in due course, but it will take time.  Guys with Hampton's type of injury who undergo nerve transposition surgery always need time to get back their command.  It wasn't as obvious with Smoltz because Smoltz was moved to the pen, and because he throws hard.  I just don't see Hampton winning 10 games in 2007.  I could see Mike having a nice comeback year in 2008, but it won't surprise me a bit if he struggles throughout a large part of the 2007 season.

That is one reason why I believe JS needs to pick up another starter in March (Davies and Hudson are the others).  With Smoltz and James at the top of the rotation, they could plug a new starter in as #3, then use Hudson as #4 and bring Hampton along slowly as #5.  Davies could go back to Richmond to regain his command and his confidence.  Lance Cormier could compete for a long relief job (either in Atlanta or Richmond), while remaining a #6 starter candidate, which is the right role for him.  If the new #3 guy pans out and has a positive season, you are looking at a pennant contender.  In that kind of a scenario, there would not be much pressure on Hudson and Hampton, and anything they get from them would be gravy.   JS must realize the merits of this approach for a team trying to get back into the pennant picture, which is why I would not be surprise to see one more opportunistic move made in March.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Mar 2, 2007 6:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the bullpen
I'm in total agreement with you on the bullpen though...we may start to take it for granted like we did a few years ago when Darren Holmes and Grybowski were out there...the "no name" pen

by themurph on Feb 27, 2007 10:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What
happened to John Foster, is he still with the team.

by jack dein on Feb 26, 2007 5:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

From Hardball Times
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-best-young-shortstops-of-2007/

Top shortstops: Good Upside, at Least Two Years from Prime

Elvis Andrus

18 years old | Atlanta Braves

Andrus' .265/.321/.362 performance at Class A Rome doesn't look like anything to get excited about, but it was a strong showing for a 17-year-old. He did not hit for much power, but he was playing half his games in a pitcher-friendly park and his line drive and fly ball rates suggest he will be more than a singles hitter when he finishes growing and refining his plate approach.

Andrus committed 32 errors at shortstop in 2006, but he is widely regarded as having the tools necessary to become a strong defensive shortstop.
________________

Brent Lillibridge

23 years old | Atlanta Braves

Lillibridge has received a a lot of attention since being traded to the Braves a few months ago, and that's understandable given that he was underappreciated while putting up good numbers in the Pirates' system. The baby-faced shortstop has limited power potential, but his disciplined approach at the plate yields well-rounded offensive results. He might be comparable to another 23-year-old infielder, Dustin Pedroia, except that Pedroia is a better contact hitter and already has demonstrated that he can be productive in the upper levels of the minor leagues.

Lillibridge's fielding receives good reviews for the most part, but he did commit 34 errors in 2006. A zone-based fielding metric I am developing suggests he was worth +six plays relative to his peers in the South Atlantic and Carolina League, so it sounds like he's capable of becoming at least an average defensive shortstop in the major leagues if that's where the Braves keep him.

by themurph on Feb 27, 2007 11:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Salty
...alas, Salty has become chopped liver.

by 525DP on Feb 28, 2007 7:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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