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Texiera's future?

Is there a realistic chance that Texiera will sign with the Braves long term? What are people hearing or seeing on this topic? I just don't see how he stays beyond this year. I guess some older players (Smoltz, Glavine, Jones) have to retire sometime, but where will the money come from? I wouldn't even trust Boras if he were standing right in front of me, so I don't have a lot of confidence in him being locked up before becoming a free agent. If he does become a free agent, I just don't think we can compete with the money that will be thrown his way

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You hit the nail on the head...
I really think our only outside shot is that Teixera's loves it here so much that he kinda makes the decision himself if the braves give him a reasonable offer, like andruw did on his first contract.  I am not banking on that to happen, but you never know.  Plus, the braves do have to consider all the young players that we have, and if we sign Teixera to a contract that takes up a fifth or fourth of our payroll each year, we might not be able to sign all of those players to an extension.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 9, 2007 11:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Money
We could afford a ~$20 million/year deal for Teixeira, if that's the price. Mike Hampton's contract is done after '08 (writing off the $10-15 million he costs after insurance) and Glavine is doubtful to be back (writing off another $8 million). His raise will only be ~$8 million more than what he's making, so it's doable.

Gondee posted the salary chart about three weeks ago:

2009 committments (increase from '08)
C  McCann             3.5 M
1B Teixeira         ~20.0 M
2B Johnson            400 K
SS Escobar            400 K
3B Chipper           11.0 M
LF Diaz               1.2 M
CF Anderson/Schafer   400 K
RF Francoeur          3.5 M

  1. Smoltz            14.0 M
  2. Hudson            13.0 M
  3. James              1.6 M
  4. Reyes              400 K
  5. Jurrjens           400 K
RP Soriano            4.0 M
RP Gonzalez           4.5 M
UT Infante            2.0 M

Every other spot will be filled by a 400 K player which includes guys like Moylan, Devine, Brandon Jones, etc. Eight spots remain @ 400 K a year = $3.2 M.

Adding that all up, the Braves 25 man roster should cost around $83-84 million, less than what we'll be paying in 2008. That leaves room to afford Teixeira and possibly add a ~$10 million free agent for the bullpen or rotation.

Also remember that right now, $48 million in payroll for 2008 is tied up in four players; Hampton, Smoltz, Chipper, and Glavine. Chipper is likely to be the only one around after 2009, making likely that we could have many millions to spend at that point to replace those guys, even if Mark T. is resigned.

We can afford him if we'll willing to pony up the record setting contract for him. And it's obvious we don't have anyone to fill his shoes with Thorman and Kaaihue as our only in house options.
 

by 17843 on Dec 10, 2007 12:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

wow
that was an excellent breakdown of the situation. it gives me high hopes cuz i have a small man crush on Tex. but i do feel jurrgens is going to be higher than the 5 spot in the rotation by 2009. at least higher than the uninspiring reyes...in the 3-4 range.

by MIZIKE74 on Dec 10, 2007 1:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

1st base situation similar to this year's CF
If, and this is a big IF, Kala Ka'aihue has a monster year at Mississippi/Richmond this season, we might be having similar discussions next off season about 1st base to what we've been having this year surrounding Jordan Schafer / Andruw.  The biggest difference, I suppose, is that Andruw was coming off a horrible season, and I'd think Teixeira will more than likely have another good one (probably a great one).  Also, throw into the mix Cody Johnson and Jason Heyward - -if those two guys have great seasons at Rome / Myrtle Beach, it'll be even more similar to the Schafer discussion, and yes, that assumes that either of those guys moves to 1st.

So what would we rather do - tie ourselves to Teixeira for another 10 or so years, which would probably be GREAT if we could do it, but it would block somebody at 1st (Ka'aihue at least, and maybe Johnson or Heyward).  An outfield of Francoeur, Schafer, and Johnson/Heyward/Hernandez is young and here for a while (assuming they all make it and stick around), so somebody needs to move!

Anyway, the whole situation is dependant on a lot of variables, but it gives us some things to think about.

by secondbass on Dec 10, 2007 5:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Decisions.
In the end, it'll come down to how the young pitching developes.  With Glavine and Hampton likely out the door after 2008, Smoltz to follow suit post-2009 and Huddy doing the same after 2010, we'll be in the market for another ace or two sooner rather than later.  

I fully expect another Maddux style free agent signing, where we spend top dollar to bring in a markee starter at the top of the FA class.  Bottom line, if it comes down to it, who would you rather spend $20M/year on: Tex or Johan?  I feel as though 1B is not a difficult position to cover and I could certainly see Jason Heyward moving there and playing in Atlanta before the run of the decade.  If Cody Johnson can cut down on the strikeouts, he's another promising possibility.  I'm not ready to give up on Kala Ka'aihue either.  Worst case scenario: Tex walks, Thorman plays stop-gap and one of our better prospects ends up playing the position full-time for the start of 2010.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 10, 2007 9:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

ugh...
anytime thorman is mentioned as a stop gap, it truly is a worst case scenario...

by Doghnut on Dec 10, 2007 9:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah...
Now that I think of it, the "better" worst case scenario would be a vet on a one year thing.  Could be someone as useful and Scott Hatteberg, or with playoff experience like Kevin Millar.  I'm not sure what to think of Thorman now, but hitting him as part of a platoon post-Tex to at least try to build some value before cutting ties wouldn't be the worst of things.
Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 10, 2007 10:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yep
kind of my point exactly....It woul be great to have Tex long term, but I think pitching will take priority.  Soe the question may be do we really need him?  Almost crazy to ask, but there are many considerations....

by secondbass on Dec 10, 2007 11:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Real Question...
We have to ask ourselves: do we need to re-sign Tex to validate the fact that we gave up a massive package of prospects to get him in the first place or do we deal with that trade as a sunk cost?  In my opinion, it's the latter and we should only tie him up longterm if that move is truly the best thing for Atlanta moving forward.  He's likely to cost around 20% of our payroll and I'm just not sure any player is worth that sort of commitment from the Braves.

Like I said, I feel as though 1B can be covered relatively easily from within or without.  I think it all depends on how the youngsters develope in 2008.  With Kelly and Yunel, we likely have solid 1-2 hitters well into the future.  Heck, Kelly could be pushed down to the 6-hole because he's got some pop.  Francouer and McCann need to step up and be the 4-5 types we all know they can be.  If that happens, Chipper continues to play and shine, and our position playing prospects develope as they should, then we can definitely do without Tex.  

It also depends on whether or not Jurrjens and Reyes pitch like legitimate, middle-of-the-rotation starters; Devine and Acosta must also proove to be truly effective relievers at the big league level.  The talent in the low minors needs to keep up the good work as they move up the chain.  All of these things could make it more feasable to re-sign Tex, but like I've said, I'm not sure it's a move we should make.  Bottomline is that we CAN afford him, but it's not clear that we NEED to do so.  Only time will tell.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 10, 2007 11:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well.
I would say make a max offer of 6 years, $100 million.  Chances are the Yankees are going to offer him something outrageously stupendously rediculous (like 8/$200) and we just can't compete with that.  We can only hope that we can offer him something that the Yankees can't (like he likes it in Atl, a no trade clause, etc.).  But I think I can safely say that we will not give him the best offer on the market.  Hell, I think the Angels and Dodgers will offer him $BIGNUM monies to go there.  At least more than we can offer.

by Something Profound on Dec 10, 2007 4:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nope.
The Braves have not handed out a No-Trade Clause to date and likely never will while Schuerholz is in charge.  He might not be the GM anymore, but the buck stops with him.  Giving it to Texwould be a betrayal to all the others that have been denied in the past and would open the floodgates for similar requests in the future.

I would not pay a cent over $20M for any player in baseball in any year of his contract.  Also, consider this: if Tex, a certain Type A Free Agent, decides to leave, then we get TWO picks as compensation.  Add to that the one we got for Mahay, and we'd likely recover 3/5 of the package we traded for him.  Those players might not be of the caliber of those we gave up, but they should be similar to those that made up the "back-end" of our package.  If we have a solid prospect playing 1B who is a year or less away from making an impact at the major league level, I wouldn't be heartbroken if we had to let Tex walk.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 11, 2007 5:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tex
During an online chat with one of the senior ESPN baseball writers, he told Atlanta fans that there is basically no chance Tex resigns with Atlanta.  He is going to become of the highest paid players in baseball, and there is no way we can afford him.  The Yankees will probably blow us out of the water.  

by BigD on Dec 10, 2007 5:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Tex
If he leaves we get a draft pick but probably not a good one figuring the Yankees make the playoffs.  Cody Johnson showed he can hit for power and avg. in his first full season at A-ball.  He would be the best fit at first if Tex leaves.  Smoltz is a FA after this season.  Hampton and Glavine most likely will be gone.  We should start talking an extension for Francoeur.  Why becuase if he has a season like this year half way through his price will up.  We have a good farm system and money for the future so its looking good.

by braves077 on Dec 10, 2007 6:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Technically....
Johnson hasn't set foot in A ball yet - he was at Danville, which is considered rookie league.  Rome is Low A, Myrtle Beach is High A.

I agree with your post, especially locking up Francoeur long term.

by secondbass on Dec 11, 2007 5:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Smoltz
Smoltz has a club option for 12 mill in 09 and another in 10 but i don't know the price.

by braves077 on Dec 10, 2007 6:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

2010 Option
2009 option guaranteed with 200 IP in 2008
2010 option: $13M (200 IP in '09) or $12M (less than 200 IP in '09)

by surge on Dec 10, 2007 9:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Smoltz and Chipper.
These two icons will stay for as long as they want to because it's pretty clear that they are still elite players despite advanced ages (in the world of baseball) and they consistently accept below market, option laden extensions.  I doubt the combined $21M we'll pay them in 2009 (which is $4M less than they're slated for in 2009) will affect much of anything.  
Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 11, 2007 5:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you...
If Lillibridge is still around can he play 1B?

by BC1898 on Dec 11, 2007 2:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

No
His offense plays as average or better at shortstop, but no where near enough for first base. And that's if you disregard that he's never played the position defensively.

If Kaaihue doesn't develop, there's no real 1B in the system. Heyward's potential is as an elite right fielder with the cannon and power that goes along with that and Johnson is incredibly raw. Even if we would count on one of those two, they won't be ready until mid-2010 at the absolute earliest. If Teixeira doesn't resign we'll need to find around 1.5-2 years worth of production at first. That's why it's so important that we resign him, even if he costs $20 million/year.

by 17843 on Dec 11, 2007 3:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I disagree....
I do not think where a player plays really downgrades their offense.  For instance, if schafer were to turn into a run producer out in center, that would offset the fact taht lillibridge is not a prototypical masher at third.  And even if schafer did not prove to be a reliable run producer, we would have a lot of high average guys who would still produce enough runs, just without all the power.  Plus, with the production the production the braves got a first before Teixera, i believe lillibridge would do much better than thorman could do in terms of consistient offense.  I am pretty sure that lillibridge is not our first baseman of the future, but was just saying his offensive contribution to the team does not diminish just because he plays first base.

Also, Heyward will not be playing rightfield for the braves, he will  be playing left or first, simply because francouer is more than likely going to be extended and the braves are pretty set on keeping him there, with the gold glove as validation.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 11, 2007 4:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Couple things
"I do not think where a player plays really downgrades their offense."

"his offensive contribution to the team does not diminish just because he plays first base."

This is not 100% false, but usually is. The following link shows averages from 2004-2006 for each position:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6516&mode=print

If you have someone posting the average stats of a shortstop (749 OPS) and he's playing first base, he would be considered as well below average. Even a player who's putting up "good" stats (829 OPS) would be below average at first base. The offensive exploits of Hanley Ramirez (basically the best NL offensive player in 2007) would've been enough only to rate in the top ten first basemen in baseball. The only way to offset this is to have someone post similarly above average stats at a weaker position (C, 2B, SS, CF). Think about it, if Lillibridge plays SS, he's an above average guy, but if he plays 1B and posts below average statistics for 1B, we have to have someone else playing SS. That someone else will be putting up SS average statistics at the position because we don't have a superstar like A-Rod, Hanley Ramirez, or Tejeda in his prime putting up big numbers at the position.

To put it more easily, there's an expected offensive contribution from each position on the field. If you want your whole team to have a league average offense, you'll want your players to post league average OPS for their position. If you have Lillibridge posting a below average OPS at 1B, you'll need someone somewhere else to put up above average stats for the position.

The Braves are lucky to have such solid preformers at these positions as McCann, Johnson, and Escobar who were all above average. However, we're also saddled with a RF who's put up below average stats for his position for the past two years and our LF platoon put up a .792 OPS last season, also below average. Now, with Willie Harris gone maybe Diaz will post his .865 OPS while playing everyday or maybe the Brandon Jones/Diaz platoon will out produce Diaz/Harris, but the point is we're actually losing ground from two big time offensive positions. We can't afford a Lillibridge who's minor league career OPS is .813 (well below average at 1B) playing there.

"Also, Heyward will not be playing rightfield for the braves, he will  be playing left or first, simply because francouer is more than likely going to be extended and the braves are pretty set on keeping him there, with the gold glove as validation."

Francoeur could be out of town by the time Heyward is ready for prime time. I'll say he should be out of town if his numbers don't pick up, because all metrics I've seen rate his defense as average in RF despite the highlight reel plays he makes and despite the Gold Glove. Heyward's peak potential is as an elite right fielder, whether or not the Braves let someone inferior in talent play there rather than him is yet to be seen.

by 17843 on Dec 11, 2007 5:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

However
Heyward's peak potential may be as an elite right fielder, but if the braves already have an elite player at that position in francouer, then they will put heyward at another position obviously.  My argument in both the case of lillibridge and heyward is that they are both young controllable talents, and that if the braves want to put the best talent on the field, both of these guys may be the best options at other positions besides their natural ones.  When it comes to a young player, you can agrue all about how much potential value he has in terms of trade and such, but until he is traded, that young player's value only matters in terms of the team he is on.  In the case of heyward, simply because he projects to be a better rightfielder does not mean the braves are going to move the established francouer to another position when heyward is ready, nor does it mean the braves are going to trade heyward just because his position is already filled at the major league level.  They could move heyward to first base, where, while his personal value may be diminished in terms of compairson to other players on other teams or overall league averages, his value to the braves is as high as it can be, because he will be the best and most affordable option we have at first, or at another position.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 11, 2007 6:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

If
"if the braves already have an elite player at that position in francouer"

That's a really, really big if. Francoeur has posted back to back below average OPS for a RF and defensive metrics rated him as below average for a RF in 2006 and average in 2007. He'll need to maintain his OBP and increase his SLG considerably to be even above average, much less elite.

If Francoeur suddenly begins posting elite level stats then Heyward will move to LF or 1B. His offense is projected to play anywhere.

Re: Kaaihue, I expect the Braves to start him at Mississippi and hope he restores his value. He was an absolute beast at Myrtle Beach in one of the most difficult hitters parks in the minors. Mostly, he needs to produce at AA and then show he can move up a level and produce in AAA.

by 17843 on Dec 11, 2007 9:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kala Kaaihue
I don't think thats right the name.  He slugged the ball but when he move up he played horribly.  Do they move him back down and they hope for the same production and than he could be a trade chip come All-Star break.

by braves077 on Dec 11, 2007 9:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ehh true,
I can see your point, but francouer is still only 24, and he has show the ability to hit for 30 homers and hit near a .300 average, obviously in seperate seasons, and in both of those seasons, he has shown that he can be a run producer, as he has driven in over 100 runs both seasons.  Of course, he has more chances than a lot of other people do to drive in runs, and that overshadows the fact that his numbers are not that great, he just has equal production from more chances.  I can see where you are coming from, but francouer has shown some improvement, and I know this really does not pertain much to the discussion, but Francoeur also could become the face of the franchise if Teix is not extended and once Chipper hangs'em up, so that makes it even less likely Frenchy is moved.  I am not at all debating the truth of your arguments, the stats do not lie, and I thank you for actually looking them up, I just that in some factors in reality may also have meaning to our discussion.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 11, 2007 10:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Another thing...
i guess when i think about it, my thinking is that Frenchy is an OF who has two consecutive seasons in which he has driven in 100 runs, and has done it as a 22 and 23 year old, my feeling is that right now, francouer is doing his job, as a lower lineup run producer, and that he is an above average right fielder because the rest of the lineup hides some of his flaws.  My hope is that if we do lose Teixera and chipper, by that time, Francouer will become a better hitter (more walks, less strikeouts, higher OPS, better pitch selection) by the time those two are remove from teh lineup, but if he does not, then I can understand where you are coming from.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 11, 2007 10:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree
I certainly hope he turns into the .300/.350/.550 monster he can be in right field.

PECOTA's projections for him called for his average season in 2007 to be something like a .285/.327/.499. In actuality, he exceeded those projections by a bit in AVG and OBP, but posted a SLG 55 points below the projections. In fact, Francoeur was given about a 75% chance of exceeded a .447 SLG, something he failed to do. One interesting thing if you look at his stat line is how his XBH actually did not decline between 2006 and 2007; he had 24 2B, 6 3B, and 29 HRs in 2006 and 40 2B, 0 3B, and 19 HRs in 2007. Maybe he just got bad luck with his long balls or maybe he had some minor injury that was bugging him and taking away that extra 20-30 feet worth of power. If an extra ten 2Bs and gone over for HRs, we'd be talking about a .475 SLG, which wouldn't look so bad. Be interesting to see his season next year, one I'm looking to as his "make or break" season.

by 17843 on Dec 12, 2007 12:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Francoeur....
First off, I'm a big stat guy just like you are.  Stats for the most part don't lie, but there are always exceptions to the rule and for this reason I don't think that Francoeur's overall stats tell his whole story.  Francoeur has been clutch, and yes I still think clutch is a characteristic regardless of what you or your stat boys say because if it wasn't then AROD would have batted better than .111 in the playoffs in 2006.  Francoeur has consistently produced with runners on base and when the game is tight. Of course he has failed in these situations as well, but everybody in the majors does as some point, but overall he has been better than most.

Secondly, Francoeur as you have mentioned is very young (23), this is the age when most sure fire prospects break into the league. Not to mention that it takes a year or two for these prospects to start really playing up to their potential, and in some cases longer.  I mean if you really think about it the guy that Francoeur was battling for Rookie Of The Year honors in 2005 is 28 years old right now........so that means Ryan Howard was roughly 25 or 26 when he was competing with a 21 year old for rookie of the year....basically you guys have to understand that Francoeur is still very raw and only going to grow as a player, which he has already been doing.  I mean for Christ sake he has driven in over 100 runs the last two seasons at 22 and 23 years of age.  If Jordan Schafer came in this year and did that (basically the same age) you guys would be calling for early induction to the Hall of Fame. Basically, I'm saying Francoeur has been doing one hell of a job for his age and I only see him growing as a ball player.

Thirdly, back to driving in 100 runs the last two seasons....this is pretty damn impressive especially considering the fact that he is a 6th hole hitter.  There are only two other guys in the entire major leagues that can say they drove in over 100 runs batting in the 6th hole.....one plays in coors field (Hawpe) and the other bats in Bostin in a sicker lineup than the Braves (Lowell).  Also, if you put aside the fact that he hits in the 6th hole, you have to take into account that Francoer was 11th in the National League in RBI's and 21st in the entire Majors in RBI's....so now we are talking about a 23 year old guy (prospect age for most) that is in the top 3% of RUN PRODUCERS amongst position players in the entire majors, both NL and AL. This means that only 2% of major league players were better at driving in runs this year.  So forgive me if I take your low OPS that Francoeur has posted the last couple of years and throw that out the window.  

Fourthly (if thats a word), your quote from your post,

"Maybe he just got bad luck with his long balls or maybe he had some minor injury that was bugging him and taking away that extra 20-30 feet worth of power.".....

this quote makes me think that you just look at stats and never ever watch a game.  I watched every single game except for about five, and anybody else that actually watched the games wouldn't have to speculate why his power was down this year.  We all know that he was being more selective and trying to hit the ball the opposite way which had a positive effect on his average, but subsequently had a negative effect on his power (which is obvious).  I would much rather Francouer's power numbers come down a little bit as long as he is going to put the ball in play more often and lay off pitches that are over his head or ten feet outside.  But even though he sacrificed power last year to be a better overall hitter, I think his power numbers will go up this year while remaining a more complete hitter.  I say this because last year his homerun total increased in the second half and so did his average.....I say that is pretty good growth for our 23 year old phenom.

Lastly, your earlier comment.......

"Francoeur could be out of town by the time Heyward is ready for prime time. I'll say he should be out of town if his numbers don't pick up, because all metrics I've seen rate his defense as average in RF despite the highlight reel plays he makes and despite the Gold Gloves."

This comment makes me think that you are Jayson Stark posing as a Braves fan.  Granted, Francouer doesn't always look like the smoothest outfielder, but he does pretty much always make the play (only 5 errors in 351 total chances).  And as far as the metrics that you look at to judge a player, rather than actually watch the games like the rest of us....you can take those metrics and smoke em' because those metrics don't take into account how many times teams don't try to advance a base because Francoeur is ready to unleash a throw...and they certainly don't take into account how many times Andruw Jones (the greatest defensive Center Fielder of all time) ran into Francoeur's "ZONE" to catch a flyball.  

Well I've said my peace about Jeff Francoeur and I think it's time for bed......g'night

PS. 17843...try and catch a game or two next year

by whunt13 on Dec 12, 2007 1:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok
As the ESPN commercial asks, Are you questioning my fanhood? Seriously, why else would someone post on an Atlanta Braves blog if they didn't actually care about watching and following the Braves?

"We all know that he was being more selective and trying to hit the ball the opposite way which had a positive effect on his average, but subsequently had a negative effect on his power (which is obvious)."

Here's a link to his 2007 Hit Chart for Turner Field and the 2006 Hit Chart.

http://i143.photobucket.com/albums/r131/nicholsjacob10/HitChart.png

For all the talk about hitting the other way, it sure didn't do anything for him. Counting up the little s and d markers, he at best broke even from 2006 to 2007. The only result was additional fly outs to the opposite field. So if he's ruining his power to try and hit the other way, he should really stop.

As to being more selective hurting his power, I don't see how that would matter. He's trying to hit better pitches, that doesn't involve swinging softer.

"But even though he sacrificed power last year to be a better overall hitter, I think his power numbers will go up this year while remaining a more complete hitter.  I say this because last year his homerun total increased in the second half and so did his average."

I see no reason why his numbers would go up. In the minors in 2004 and 2005 his translated SLG was .477 and .466. In the majors in 2006 and 2007 his SLG was .449 and .444. His only season with different numbers was in the majors in 2005 when his SLG was translated as .562. Stretching back to before when PECOTA has numbers translated, he had a raw .445 in Rome in 2003 and a raw .585 SLG in 162 PA at Danville in 2002. His track record is as a guy who will post a .444 to .477 SLG. Maybe he'll "come around" and return to his 2005 plus becoming a patient hitter. This season will be key.

As to defense, you're happy to toss out metrics based on factual evidence and declare him a good fielder based on the opinion of the official scorer? The personal attacks saying I don't watch games are cute, but irrelevant. For every throw that Francoeur nails someone, he sails one over McCann's head as he did on the nationally televised Phillies-Braves game this summer (the infamous Andruw flossing game). We'll see how he preforms without Andruw in the lineup this year and see if he fields those balls or if the far inferior Anderson-Blanco combo exposes him as a average defender. I wouldn't dismiss metrics however. The keys things stats show is the complete picture of his preformance in the field. I highly doubt your mind holds every outfield play Francoeur made last season, probably, like most of us, we remember a handful of bullets he used to gun down someone at home.

by 17843 on Dec 12, 2007 7:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

BURN!
17843, it was an absolute pleasure reading as you deconstructed a remarkably weak attack on your original position; kudos, man!  Let me jump on that train, if you don't mind.

RBI is an absolutely worthless stat.  Much like its companion stat - RS - it is a factor of your place in the lineup and the production/skill of those around you.  Like I said elsewhere in this Diary, Joe Carter had 10 seasons with 100+ RBI despite being a 259/.306/.464 mostly as a corner OF.

As for clutch, perhaps you think Derek Jeter is not a clutch hitter because he bombed in the 2007 postseason.  Maybe A-Rod is more clutch than Bernie Williams was because his overall postseason batting numbers are better.  The fact of the matter is that "clutchness" or lack thereof is dubious and even harder to separate from overall skill.  

As for Francouer specifically, he upped his AVG (and subsequently his OBP) and SUSTAINED his SLG.  He didn't sacrifice power to improve anything else, he simply doesn't have the sort of sustainable power that he flashed as a rookie in 2005.  His minor league track record supports the fact that he's a sub-.500 SLG guy and that's a tough thing to make up for in RF.  He also seems to be maxed out in terms of average and OBP, unless he somehow stops striking out as much and continues to improve his BB rate.  

Defensively, I'm not sold by any metric.  I think he'll have a rougher go of things in 2008 without Andruw Jones in CF.  It's also a good point that his arm, while powerful, is not remarkably accurate.  I Jordan Schafer played just like Francouer, I'd be down on him, too.  I don't irrationally support anyone, like some others seem to do.

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by ejruiz on Dec 12, 2007 9:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My Thoughts on Francouer.
17843 (is that for Beaver Creek, PA?) I just wanted to thank you for the link, I've been looking for that info.  I also appreciate your fresh and objective look at Jeff Francouer.  It's always difficult to take on a fan favorite with as much hype as him on a site like this.  

The truth is that he was a .282/.330/.478 hitter in the minors and he's hit pretty much as can be expected of that track record (.280/.319/.463) in the majors.  He's always struck out too much and walked too little, something that hasn't changed at all in recent years.  

RBI is a worthless statistic (Joe Carter, a joke of a Hall of Famer with a lifetime .259/.306/.464 line as a corner OF, 1B and DH, racked up 10 seasons with 100+ RBI) and AVG isn't all that much better.  As for defense, I just don't trust most metrics out there any more than I trust the Gold Glove Award.  If there was a truly good way to judge defense statistically, there would be something closer to a concensus standard by now.  Personally, I think our RF is somewhere north of average in that respect, but not so good as to offset the cost of his bat currently.

I do agree with those that believe his marketability does improve his overall value, but there's a reason why we gave McCann a long term deal already and haven't done so with Francoeur.  The simple fact of the matter is that Brian is above average for his position and just as marketable as Jeff, while Frenchy (God I hate that nickname), is well below average for his.  

2008 might not be make or break for Francouer, but 2009 certainly will be.  By then he'll likely be required to hit like a clean-up hitter and, if he's not up to the challenge (and with a rising pricetag) he could be traded.  Heyward, who has superstar written all over him and is expected to move through the minors quickly, will certainly be ready for Atlanta by the start of 2010 if he progresses as he should.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 12, 2007 1:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The Stats and More.
  • Jeff Francouer (professional averages): 167 H, 36 2B, 4 3B and 23 HR in 593 AB for a line of .282/.320/.472 with 84 RS, 95 RBI and 11 SB (6 CS)
  • Average RF: 167 H, 35 2B, 3 3B and 23 HR in 597 AB for a line of .280/.353/.461 with 64 RS, 108 RBI and 9 SB (4 CS)
  • Elite RF: 176 H, 35 2B, 1 3B and 29 HR in 588 AB for a line of .300/.380/.510 with 74 RS, 94 RBI and 14 SB (4 CS)
The first thing to note is that I combined Francouer's stats in the majors and minors, which gave him a little boost over what we've seen in Atlanta; we'll chalk the boost up to the realistic possibilities of improvement.  Second of all, I should define the measuring sticks (which come from the link 17843 provided): the "average" RF is the composite of the 30 players with the most starts at the position over the three years from 2004-2006 and the "elite" RF is the average of the top five.  Thirdly, I should note that RBI + RS is 172 for the former and 168 for the latter, proving that those stats are largely dependant on your spot in the line-up and the skill of the players batting around you.  Now let's delve into the matter at hand now, shall we.

You'll notice that Francouer matches up almost perfectly with the "average" RF in the meaningful stats, but with one key exception: he's had a significantly lower OBP.  His inability to take walks has really hurt his value as a hitter.  When compared to the "elite" RF, Jeff is blown clear out of the water.  His contrast line is -.018/-.060/-.038.  In other words, his OPS of .792 is almost 100 points lower than that of the "elite" RF.

Something that I neglected to mention earlier, is that "average" in this case isn't all that bad.  The fact is that the "average" RF would have been 9th in baseball with his OPS.  Francouer's averages would have him right at the middle of the pack, by the way.  Jeff's not a bad player and I (nor anyone else) is advocating that we bench him or get rid of him now, but the truth is that his perceived value in the public is far greater than his actual worth.  I have to believe that the Braves see through it and that that's why they're holding off on signing him longterm.  If he doesn't proove to be worth elite dollars, he won't get them from Atlanta.  If it came down to it, he'd be a valuable trading chip and the return, plus his potential internal replacements, might make the move more palatable if that time does come.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 12, 2007 2:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Uh....
Wow, rarely do I disagree with any post of yours, ejruiz, but I have to point this out:

"....there's a reason why we gave McCann a long term deal already and haven't done so with Francoeur."

If I'm not mistaken, the reason we didn't with Jeff is that we in fact DID make an extension offer to him, but he (JF) wasn't happy with the offer and said no.  Isn't that right?  And wasn't that offer coming after he barely hit .260 and struck out 132 times?  I'm not asking in a sarcastic tone....I'm seriously asking because I wouldn't swear to it.
Anyway, the point is, Jeff knew he could do better than .260, and he showed us his committment to improvement in 2007.  I absolutely think the guy is worth a ton of money (comparatively speaking) and should not move for Heyward, unless it's to center, but hopefully Schafer will have that locked up.  This is why I'd move Heyward to 1st this year at Rome, not sign Teixeira long term, and go from there.  No disrespect to Heyward, and no blind loyalty to JF - I just think the dude is a very good outfielder and we should keep him and find a place for Heyward.
My 2cents.

by secondbass on Dec 12, 2007 5:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Francouer to CF.
I absolutely love the idea of Francouer in CF, which I would have to believe would be considered if Schafer falters and/or Heyward flourishes.  Another possiblity would have to be whether or not Schafer could be the centerpiece of a package for an ace like Danny Haren or Erik Bedard.  Persoanlly I prefer Haren, but I think that since the Orioles are clearly rebuilding and have a lesser GM, they'd sell at a lower price.

Francouer certainly has the ability to play CF and the position would put his offensive numbers in much better context.  Heyward is projected to be an excellent RF defensively and seems to possess more consistent power than Jeff.  Moreover, Heyward already has good plate discipline and a filled out frame, so there's no reason for him to progress slowly through the system.  I'd be surprised if he's not playing in Atlanta by 2010 at some point and I wouldn't be shocked if he's starting to begin that season.

I'm not sure about whether or not we offer Francouer an extension at this point, but since he turned it down, I can only imagine that it wasn't as lucrative as some might expect.  This all goes back to the fact that I believe that the Braves see what I and some others do: Jeff is simply not worth elite money like the one that McCann got.  Heap profiles to be genuinely elite at his position, while Frenchy (still hate that nickname) simply does not in RF.  CF, maybe, but not in RF.

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by ejruiz on Dec 12, 2007 7:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well stats are stats
And they are very telling that Francouer may be overrated.  I do overrate him myself, because I love the way he plays the game.  In all honesty, I do hope that we do at least lock up him up reasonably into the first few years of his free agency, as it would be nice to have at worst a league averge 100% effort guy in the outfield everyday.  With that being said, I think that we will see a mixture of the 06 and 07 in 08, which will hopefully equate to a .285/.340/.500 line, and i think these are reasonable numbers.  It is a luxery to know that, at least for one more year, francouer is in a lineup that allows for him to play within his skill level and upgrade it, instead of trying to play beyond his skill level and be incosistient, which could hamper his development.  And, hopefully, is skill set will develop to where he can be a reliable middle of the order run producer for many years to come.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 2:49 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The Power Wasn't There.
In both 2006 and 2007, Francouer slugged .449 and .444 respectively.  I think the best we can hope for out of him in that regard in 2008 is .470. That would be a solid improvement and could set him up for bigger things to come, but it's also a generous estimate.  I mean, 2005 will probably be an outlier in his big league career because the league caught up to is free-swinging ways his after his rookie campaign and he has yet to recapture power.  The only other time in his career that he posted numbers like the ones you'd like to see for over 150 AB at a time was in High-A ball back in 2004.  Personally, I'm hoping for .290/.345/.470 in 2008 followed by .285/.340/.490 in 2009.  I think that's reasonably optimistic, if not fair.  
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by ejruiz on Dec 12, 2007 3:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Trade him and get Konerko
Konerko is locked up until 2010 for $12m anually and does not receive no trade protection until May. I say move him to a team who feels they could sign him and target Paulie. He's no Tex, but he is guarenteed over the 3 years at $12m. I would rather pay $12m for him rather than $20m+ for Tex.

by surge on Dec 13, 2007 3:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

And
Konerko is certainly no Teixeira and if the debate is between pulling off this Teixeira for prospects and prospects for Konerko deal and actually resigning Teixeira to a long term deal, the choice is obvious. Teixeira will be 28 in spring training 2008. He will have just ended a string of five seasons where he's averaged a .286/.371/.539. Konerko will be 32. He has a career .281/.353/.495 line and after three big seasons in his prime, he regressed sharply last season. The picture in spring training 2009 will look even worse for Konerko.

He's not a particularly bad play to make next spring, but the chances of him producing near Teixeira's level next season are very low. And in the seasons after that his production will decline rapidly. That's not a train the Braves want to be riding in 2010.

by 17843 on Dec 13, 2007 3:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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