Pick 6

by gondeee on Dec 7, 2007 12:11 PM EST in Braves Minor League News

Over at Baseball Prospectus, prospect guru Kevin Goldstein puts the smack-down on the Reds for their pick of the Braves fringe-prospect Sergio Valenzuela in the Rule Five draft yesterday:

6. Reds select RHP Sergio Valenzeula from the Braves. This pick is a joke right? Valenzuela pitched 72 innings this year, split between Atlanta's Low- and High-A teams. In those 72 innings, he gave up 102 hits while nearly walking (37) as many as he struck out (38). Sure, he's got plus velocity, but he's not fooling teams that have maybe, maybe three or [four] future big leaguers on them, so what makes you think he's going to suddenly have any chance in hell of getting an entire lineup full of big leaguers out?
Chances To Stick: Seriously, they really took Sergio Valenzuela?

Good. I'm glad we get some validation that this was a rule five pick completely out of leftfield.

By the way, Valenzuela's line this winter in Mexico is not far off his regular season line. In 8 games (6 starts), he is 0-2 with a 3.73 ERA in 31.1 innings pitched, with 31 hits, 11 walks, and only 12 strikeouts. And this is what apparently impressed the Reds. Who is running that team? I wonder how his new toothpick chewing overrated manager will use the young Valenzuela.

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yeah

Glad to know I wasn't the only one who thought it was a bizarre joke.

I think I said it before, but I'm guessing they give him a shot at spring training, and them let him go. Like a non-roster invitee, only from another organization. Only costs $50,000. There could be worse mistakes.

by subwindow on Dec 7, 2007 1:44 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, like...

not protecting Jose "Carlos" Guevara instead, who they lost to the Florida Marlina.

Guevara (AA): 62.0 IP, 51 H, 4 HR, 23 BB, 87 K
Valenzuela (A): 72.0 IP, 102 H, 8 HR, 37 BB, 38 K

Ouch.

by kray1000 on Dec 7, 2007 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

Wow...

...that organization is a trainwreck.

by Smoltzs Beard on Dec 7, 2007 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe

they thought he was someone else? Maybe the meant to say Dan Smith, but accidently said Sergio Valenzuela? I can see how they would make that mistake.

Does he throw a knuckler or maybe he's a Chad Bradford underhand-type thrower?? Maybe they think he can be a closer?

Way to throw away 50k...

by themurph on Dec 7, 2007 1:50 PM EST reply actions

hmm

well, they just payed $40M for a closer so I don't think they were looking for a closer in this Valenzuela kid.

by RehabReject on Dec 7, 2007 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

They thought he was

Fernando Valenzuela, or Sergio Garcia.

by TradeAndruw on Dec 7, 2007 3:10 PM EST reply actions

Maybe

they heard his nickname was Jesus and thought he could perform wonders with a baseball.

by kray1000 on Dec 7, 2007 4:46 PM EST reply actions

The Reds.

This pick aside, Cincy has done an exceptional job rebuilding their organization. They have baseball's best prospect in OF Jay Bruce and two other top 10 candidates in SP Johnny Cueto and 1B Joey Votto. Add to them SP Homer Bailey and SS/3B Todd Frazier, and they have five guys that are at or beyond the level of the Braves top prospects.

They also have a reborn OF Joey Hamilton, All-Star candidate 2B Brandon Phillips and impressive SS/2B Jeff Keppinger already in the majors. If Edwin Encarnacion can cash in his potential, they'd be a star catcher short of a deep, young and relatively cheap major league line-up.

The pitching is getting there two, what with Bailey and Cueto joining bonifide ace Aaron Harang and workhorse Bronson Arroyo in the rotation. The bullpen needs some work, but they have a couple of solid pieces (Cordero, Weathers, Burton and Bray) already in place.

Bottomline is this: the Reds are going to be a force to be reckoned with sooner rather than later, so there's no real reason to mock them in general terms.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 7, 2007 8:23 PM EST reply actions

Ok, then we'll mock them specifically.

The Reds having offensive talent is nothing new. They've been on the cusp of contending for several years.

by kray1000 on Dec 7, 2007 10:31 PM EST up reply actions

Well...

Most of their optimal 2008 line-up would not have had an AB in Cincy before the 2007 season, so this bunch is pretty new. Honestly, I can't remember another time in recent memory when the Reds appeared so loaded with talent all at once.

A rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle and Cueto is not bad, but they certainly need another impact arm in there. A backend of the bullpen of Cordero, Weathers and Burton, with Bray as a lefty specialist is rock solid. That said, they have nothing but scrubs in the middle innings.

I'm not saying that we should fear the Reds in 2008 and the fact that they hired Dusty Baker probably means we'll never have to worry about them, but they're just not a laughable organization. Yes, the Valenzuela pick was odd, but what does it cost them, really?

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 8, 2007 12:09 AM EST up reply actions

It cost them

Guevara, a good pitching prospect they could have protected instead, who could have replaced one of those scrubs in the middle innings by mid-season. And of course the $50,000.

So no, it's not the end of the world for them, but noone said it was. They'll overcome this despite themselves.

by kray1000 on Dec 8, 2007 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

Is this a Reds blog?

Cause you're on their nuts man. No offense but the Reds have been rated very highly by people for a few years and they fall short every time. I think this year is no different. Overrated comes to mind.

by taney71 on Dec 8, 2007 10:32 PM EST up reply actions

Reds

Remember too, that the Reds played us mighty tough last year, to the tune of one Braves win in seven games. If they can carry that attitude across to other series then they'll be a contending team like ej said - especially in the weak NL Central. I think their biggest mistake of the off-season, though, was not bringing back Pete Mackanin as manager. He had that team playing the best baseball they've played in years, and he actually finished with an above .500 record - 41-39. I can't see Baker doing any better than that.

by gondeee on Dec 10, 2007 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

Furthermore

They have quicker access to being a contender than most teams do, as they play in the nl east, and they do have the prospects top have a big splash if need be

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 7, 2007 9:24 PM EST reply actions