Day 2 Thoughts and Rumblings

by gondeee on Dec 4, 2007 6:18 PM EST in Braves Trade News

The Washington Post has a few Nationals' rumblings:

I'm hearing some buzz on the Nationals' middle infield situation, currently where Cristian Guzman, Felipe Lopez and Ronnie Belliard reside. Though the Nationals are listening on Lopez, they're reluctant to trade him not because they love him, but because if Guzman goes down, they literally have no one else to fill in for him. Now, they are talking with at least one club on a trade that would bring a shortstop here, one that I'm told would involve Jon Rauch.

Speaking of Rauch, a person who would know phrased the Nationals' relievers situation like this: "If Rauch goes, Cordero stays. If Cordero goes, Rauch stays." Seems to make sense.

So the Nationals are shopping shortstop Felipe Lopez, but don't want to get stuck with only Christian Guzman at short (makes sense), so they may be in the market for another shortstop and could dangle either Jon Rauch (or Chad Cordero I'm assuming) in exchange. It was rumored (more like mused) earlier in the week by Buster Olney that the Braves could be in on Cordero, and with the addition of backup shortstop Omar Infante from the Cubs we may be in a position to dangle Brent Lillibridge in exchange for a setup man like Rauch (or Cordero, if they choose to use him that way). A departure of Lillibridge could be absorbed by our system because of the emergence last year of Brandon Hicks.

After just having traded a reliever in Ascanio it would seem on the surface that the Braves may not be in the market for non-lefty relief pitching, but Rauch or Cordero would be looked at as bullpen upgrades over anyone other than Soriano and Moylan - something that our bullpen may badly need with unprovens like Devine, Ring, and Resop holding down half the spots.

Is the market expanding for Andruw?

Because of the apparent disinterest in Andruw from teams like Washington and Kansas City, we may see some other teams jump into the Andruw Jones derby. SI.com's Jon Heyman writes that in addition to the Dodgers, Royals, and Rangers as the supposed suitors for Andruw, the Brewers and even the Mets could get in on him, but are still considered longshots. Teams seem to be looking at AJ as more of a "value" signing this winter instead of looking at him as a player who will get a blockbuster contract.

Centerfield

With the acquisition of an infielder and a lefty reliever, the team only has a better-stopgap-in-centerfield left on their winter meetings shopping list. DOB at the AJC says you can scratch the Royals' Dejesus off the list:

They're not in talks with Royals about DeJesus. Royals aren't looking to trade him as of now, because they have him penciled in at center unless they get Andruw.

As I said above, the Royals may have cooled on Andruw for the time being. Also in the O'Brien blog he mentions that the Royals are not interested in Chuck James. Regarding the rest of the centerfield options, O'Brien says that most of the other guys have "strings attached" which are scaring the Braves off right now.

The conventional thinking around the Opryland Hotel seems to be that the centerfield market will take some time to play out. There are so many free agents - Andruw, Rowand, Cameron - that those guys have to find homes before any of the names in the trade market are moved. It may take until Christmas before we know if a viable and affordable centerfield option is available on the trade market.

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Comments

Rauch For Lillibridge?

I suggested that offer over at mlbtraderumors.com in the comments section under that thread, and would be happy to get Rauch as a return. I hear from a lot of people that he might be the more talented of the two, so it would be a nice move by wren.

As far as centerfield goes, I think it would be smart for us to wait and see, we only had to use one chip to asses two needs, so we still are in very good shape to get a deal done.

Also, there are reports that the White Sox are now in on Andruw.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 4, 2007 6:28 PM EST reply actions

Hmmm...

I'd think we could get a little more for Lillibridge than an 8th-inning guy with homerun tendencies. In the one game I watched Rauch pitch this year in Atlanta, he gave up a homer.

I think Acosta and/or Moylan are capable of handling the 8th-inning job, and possibly Devine as well. Let's see what Escobar does for a full season before we trade away Lillibridge, unless we need to include him in a larger deal for a stud.

by kray1000 on Dec 4, 2007 7:26 PM EST up reply actions

Home rates

Here are the HR/9 IP for some relievers (2007/Career):

Jon Rauch - 0.72/1.04
Peter Moylan - 0.60/0.60
Rafael Soriano - 1.50/1.04
Tyler Yates - 0.81/0.96
Manny Acosta - 0.76/0.76

Based on that Rauch's career numbers look a lot like Soriano's in comparable innings (269 to 243). Soriano had a bad 2007, Rauch had a good 2007. If we're willing to trust Soriano in the 9th inning (and I've seen zero discussion that that's not the case), why can't we trust Rauch in the 8th?

I'd like a Lillibridge for Rauch deal because of the upside. It's looking more and more like Lillibridge is going to begin the season in Triple-AAA with no real chance to move up. Infante blocks him as a utility guy, Escobar at short, and his competition in center will all come better polished defensively. If we can move him for Rauch it's a winner for us as it shores up our bullpen even more and trades from a position we're strong at in the minors.

by 17843 on Dec 4, 2007 7:50 PM EST up reply actions

Wow

You actually agree with me... that's a first isn't it?

by gondeee on Dec 4, 2007 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

haha

Makes me kind of want to research some more and revise my opinion.

by 17843 on Dec 4, 2007 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

Please note...

...that Rausch pitched half his games last year in the cave that they call RFK. That will slightly effect his long ball tendancies.

I saw him pitch several times last year, and every time he looked completely legit. I would love him in the back end of our pen.

by Smoltzs Beard on Dec 5, 2007 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

No real difference

The park factors for Turner Field are 96 for pitchers and 95 for RFK. That's a slightly elevated risk, but nothing like moving from Petco Park (91) to Citizen's Bank Park (104) or Coors Field (109).

by 17843 on Dec 5, 2007 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting.

Had no idea The Ted was so close to RFK in terms of park factor. I guess since I havn't seen Turner Field in person it just seems much smaller.

BTW, not that any of you care, but the seats I'll have for the Nats new stadium are 3 rows behind the visitors dugout. Gonna be fun when the Braves are in town!

by Smoltzs Beard on Dec 5, 2007 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Nats new park

It'll be interesting to see how it plays with power numbers and what not. Certainly something to keep an eye on for those of us who play fantasy baseball at least.

by 17843 on Dec 5, 2007 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

I've got...

...a picture of what it's going to look like. I'll try and see if I can post it on here. There's one spot in particular where you can stand that overlooks the wonderful Anacostia River...(not)

by Smoltzs Beard on Dec 6, 2007 9:03 AM EST up reply actions

I checked his 3-year splits on ESPN.com...

...and was a little surprised to learn that he's given up the longball at a lower rate at home (RFK) than he has on the road, and has been noticeably better at home overall.

One thing I do like about him though is that he's about equally effective against lefties and righties.

by kray1000 on Dec 5, 2007 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

Just checked myself...

...and surrendering only surrendering only one extra home run on the road is certainly impressive. You're right about his home stats last year, they were better on every front.

by Smoltzs Beard on Dec 5, 2007 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm...

...repeat myself much?

by Smoltzs Beard on Dec 5, 2007 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

Cabrera deal done

Marlins just traded Miggy Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers for Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, and four other prospects.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3140986&name=winter_meetings

by 17843 on Dec 4, 2007 6:58 PM EST reply actions

Apparently..

There are talks about us having interest in Damian Miller:

"The Braves are looking for a backup catcher, and they have kicked the tires on free agent Damian Miller."

- Source

by mccannfan on Dec 4, 2007 7:08 PM EST reply actions

Kray, i agree completely....

That we could possibly get more for Lillibridge. The only thing is that I just wish that there could be more interest in teh guy than we are hearing about, and I think his wrist injury may be dwindling his value down a little bit.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 4, 2007 7:48 PM EST reply actions

just read

over at mlbtraderumors that we have talked to the Angels about Reggie Willits. I don't know what we could offer the Angels but he would be good to have.

by jack dein on Dec 4, 2007 10:02 PM EST reply actions

That's the thing...

The Angels don't have any holes, so all we could do is to offer a prospect or two. But he'd be perfect in Atlanta. Cheap, good defensively, good average, excellent speed, no power.

Sounds a lot like someone else we just traded for...

by kray1000 on Dec 4, 2007 10:34 PM EST up reply actions

tex

the stupid part is the thread on MLBTR about Willits, all of the angels fans immediately went "Teixeira!", like it would be an even swap.

I think the Angels are sitting pretty in the AL West, and, yeah, we could probably only give them prospects. I keep get the feeling that they're going to deal Reyes. That makes a certain amount of sense, in this situation.

by subwindow on Dec 4, 2007 10:55 PM EST up reply actions