The "Gondeee is On Vacation" Open Thread

by jhamrahi @ Talking Chop on Dec 22, 2007 10:16 PM EST

So right about now, Martin is probably sipping a pina colada by the pool. In the meantime, I'm in the northeast, in 38 degree weather, and waiting for something to happen in baseball. Of course, with Christmas right around the corner, that isn't likely to happen. So...I'd like to pose a few questions to all Braves fans out there.

The first...What was your most memorable moment of the 2007 Atlanta Braves season?

The second...would you have traded for former Cincinnati Reds outfielder Josh Hamilton if given the opportunity? And didn't the Braves have more viable candidates available to acquire this center fielder?

I guess you get my insinuation. I know that Edinson Volquez has a live arm and all, and he appeared to rebound nicely in 2007, but couldn't the Braves have put together a nicer package to fill a desperate need?

Maybe my brain is just frozen, but I think so.

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I agree about Hamilton

But maybe the brass was confident enough seeing the young guys in winter ball to know we'd have a viable CF option. The Tex trade took a bite out of our farm and maybe Wren didn't feel comfortable stripping it down any further without a big name guy in return. But as of now, I'm satisfied with the current squad that will be heading into spring training.

by Dale Murphy on Dec 22, 2007 10:43 PM EST reply actions

Hamilton's nice, but

I think we'll do okay with what we have now. Either Anderson or Blanco will likely be strong defensively without hurting the Braves offensively.

I'd be reluctant to put someone with Hamilton's past into our clubhouse. And he can't seem to stay healthy either.

by kray1000 on Dec 23, 2007 4:42 AM EST reply actions

Mine

Most memorable moment - Willie Harris' six hit night - I was there! Plus, wasn't that the night Francoeur sent the game into extras with a HR and the Braves came back in extras for the win? And Willie made a huge catch in left on the same night? I was there for all of that, so if that was all one game, then that's it! If those were different games, then my most memorable = it all runs together, but it was great! (Give me a break - when I'm at a game, I've got 3 little ones in tow who demand much of my attention)
No way on Hamilton. I love his story and he's a good player and all, but I'm ready for the Schafer era to begin, if it is to do so. I don't want Jordan blocked for any reason, so I'm happy to have a fill in for a 1/2 year or whole, whatever.

by secondbass on Dec 23, 2007 6:41 AM EST reply actions

Cincinnati Reds selling Hamilton high

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10540951

Josh Hamilton spent 3 1/2 years in rehab for drug addiction and alcoholism. It is a tribute to the young man's determination and athletic skills that he was able to earn a job with the Reds in 2007 and hit .292 with 19 HRs in only 298 ABs. Those stats suggest why Hamilton was drafted high in the first place, but they do not necessarily guarantee that he can stay on the straight and narrow (although we all hope he can). Obviously the Reds realized 298 major league ABs at the age of 26 does not necessarily project a successful major league career for a player whose recent past has been so impaired by drugs. Furthermore, experts on drug addiction will tell you (and undoubtedly told the Reds) that at least 70% of patients with this kind of drug history eventually suffer relapses of their behavior. Under the circumstances, the Reds elected to "sell high" while Hamilton has significant trade value. The Reds needed another starting pitcher. Edinson Volquez is a 24 year old starter with good stuff and some ML upside. The Reds got Volquez in return for a player (Hamilton) who could turn out to be a flash in the pan or miracle story, depending on his powers of focus and self-control. If Hamilton defeats his inner deamons and continues to play like he played in 2007, then this trade may work out beautifully for Texas. So while the upside in the trade favors Texas, OTOH the odds for success probably favor Cincinnati. The Reds sold Hamilton high and got an interesting starting pitcher for him while they could.

It is interesting to note that the 24 year old Volquez gave up 86 hits and stuck out 130 batters with a 3.21 ERA in 120 innings with AAA Oklahoma City in 2007. Thus he is a credible, major league ready starting prospect with the ability to mow down batters when he is right. He also walked 72 batters in 2007, so it will be interesting to see how well he develops command at the major league level. It is also worth noting that he was 2-1 (ERA 4.50) with 29 KOs in 34 innings after his call-up to Texas.

In that perspective, it would have been out of character for the Atlanta Braves brass to give up a solid, major league ready starting pitching prospect (say, Jo Jo Reyes) in return for a player who recently missed three seasons in drug rehab. While the Braves obviously need a CF, they also need starting pitching. Traditionally, the Braves franchise has had some reclamation projects (such as John Burkett, Jaret Wright, Shane Reynolds, and Chris Hammond), but the club has mostly avoided players with known drug histories. The one exception who comes to mind (Ken Caminitti) did not work out well, to say the least. Given all of that, I would have been pretty surprised if Frank Wren had offered a solid starting pitching prospect for Hamilton.

In fact, it would have been less surprising if the Braves had gone after Volquez.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Dec 23, 2007 7:31 AM EST reply actions

Drug Histories

Otis Nixon and Lonnie Smith.

Don't disagree with your assessment, just wanted to remind you of a couple guys who we did pick up with drug-histories.

by jjschiller on Dec 24, 2007 2:40 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not as sold on Volquez

And yes, I know the story about Hamilton. But you can look at it another way. Josh overcame a tremendous amount to get where he is today. That is pretty remarkable in its own right. It really depends on whether you look at the glass half full or half empty. I mean it wouldn't be the first time we played an outfielder with baggage (see J.D. Drew).

As for Volquez, I've followed his career for some time now. Whether or not he's Major League ready remains to be seen. He too has some mental makeup issues. If you look at his year over year performances, there is an incredible amount of inconsistency. Does he have a live arm and potential? Yes, he definitely does. Is he ready to take the next step? I'm not so sure. I'm also not entirely sure how he'll handle life on the big stage.

In any event, this is all speculation. If you told me the Braves could get Josh Hamilton for Jo-Jo Reyes, I'd make that deal. But I can see the argument against that as well.

For what it's worth, I love Schafer too, but I'd prefer to give him a little more time in the minors.

Joe Hamrahi

by jhamrahi @ Talking Chop on Dec 23, 2007 11:57 AM EST reply actions

You make some interesting points....

....and I'm not necessarily predicting NL success for Volquez. I'm just saying Volquez has good stuff, and he is the kind of young pitcher who has a chance if he can develop command. Volquez could help a Cincinnati rotation that is largely dependent on Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and possibly rookie Homer Bailey, with a huge dropoff after them. Atlanta's 2007 experience shows what happens to a team with too little rotation talent and depth, regardless of the team's ability to score runs. The Reds ae clearly another example of that, and Volquez gives them one more viable rotation option.

I don't see this as a glass half-full/glass half-empty kind of thing with Hamilton, for one well-known scientific/clinical reason. Hamilton's long term problems with drugs are another example of a behavioral illness that has been extensively studied. Drug rehab medicine has virtually become its own distinct medical specialty in this country. Recidivism (relapse behavior) has been exhaustively studied, and is well-known to exceed 70% in these cases after prolonged rehab. When you look at the way Darrell Strawberry and Steve Howe ruined their careers and their lives, it is instuctive to understand their stories are more common than not among individuals with long term drug abuse problems. That's why the Reds may have been smart to sell high. I think it is also why a team with conservative management like the Braves would probably never go after Hamilton. That's all I was saying.

I think the Braves are wise to hang onto Jo Jo Reyes. Every year, this club goes into the season thinking that it has enough good rotation options. But in the last several years, that has proven untrue, and it has kept the Braves out of contention. If the Braves hang onto Reyes, the kid will get an opportunity in 2008. He has good stuff, but needs to develop better command. I will not be surprised if Reyes becomes a regular in the Braves' rotation over the next two seasons. And I agree with you about Jordan Shafer. It seems to me that the real strength of this franchise now lies in young players like Francoeur, McCann, Escobar, Johnson, Schafer, Heyward, Reyes, Jurrjens, Devine, Acosta, Rohrbough, Locke, and so forth. They should be kept and developed patiently.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Dec 23, 2007 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

what "desperate need" ?

We've got two great CF prospects neither of whom has a reputation as a junkie or boozer.

by JimK on Dec 23, 2007 12:18 PM EST reply actions

I Love Schafer too, but...

he hasn't played about Hi A ball. Let's see a little more before we anoint him a great CF prospect.

And as for Brandon Jones, if that's who you were referring to, I really can't see him playing CF. Maybe LF, but if you want to go from Andruw Jones to Brandon Jones in CF, you'll be in for a big surprise defensively.

Joe Hamrahi

by jhamrahi @ Talking Chop on Dec 23, 2007 12:51 PM EST reply actions

Correct

Neither Schafer or Jones are in the league of Hamilton. Bill James predicted something like .298/.398/.580 for Hamilton in 2008. I mean, geez.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Dec 27, 2007 3:05 AM EST up reply actions

Love Hamilton

This guy was the best prospect in baseball coming out of high school. The tools are still there and he showed last season that he's capable of playing at a high level in the majors. I wouldn't be hesitant at all about predicting he posts something like a .300/.380/.550 line again next season. If he stays clean, his ceiling is as a superstar center field and he's at his peak right now. If I was the Braves, I wouldn't have been hesitant to send something like Reyes and a minor prospect, similar to what they got from Texas. He'd be under our control for five seasons (all through his peak years) and would not only give us a decent CF, but would give us a probable stud.

I think this trade may be looked at as one of those famously stupid trades like Bagwell or Smoltz when Hamilton starts racking up all-star appearances and Gold Gloves.

by 17843 on Dec 23, 2007 1:31 PM EST reply actions

I love Hamilton too

Have for years.

But Hamilton's immune system is weakened by drugs and there's no telling what he does. Not just in production but in terms of health and drugs. I think he's clean and hope so, but you never know what'll happen with a drug addict.

As for "give them Reyes" -- no way. Volquez has electric stuff and is nearing better control. There's little quite like that we could've reasonably given up for him unless it were a slightly bigger package.

I understand wanting to stay away, especially since he wouldn't be a stopgap and we've already got a future at his position. But before we compare Hamilton's trade to other bad deals --- well, we're getting ahead of ourselves.

By the way, Boston's Bagwell trade wasn't so bad for Boston, with Boggs and Vaughn there. The trade was what they wanted it to be, and it was understandable. Say Salty becomes a stud -- well, so what? He's not fit for first base, and we've got a stud catcher. We don't need him and it's not a "bad trade".

For what it's worth, I don't think Salty is what people think/hope he is. He's good, but I wouldn't pencil him in for greatness just yet.

by Gregory Pratt @ Talking Chop on Dec 23, 2007 6:11 PM EST up reply actions

Or....

....he could spend a good portion of the rest of his life in a hospital. Often, we look at athletic tools, and forget that athletes must conduct their lives successfully. Many athletes with great tools have fallen by the wayside because they could not manage their lives. As I said in another post, the recidivism rate among patients with Hamilton's abuse history is known to be greater than 70%. That's why most teams would steer clear.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Dec 23, 2007 6:31 PM EST up reply actions

Risk

It's an issue of baseball management. You simply don't get players of the talent of Josh Hamilton if there's no risk involved. If the risk were extremely minimal, Hamilton would be completely untouchable. He's arguably one of the ten most talented players on the planet. The Rangers snagged him for a good but not great pitching prospect (er, young pitcher, as Volquez has lost prospect status) who would rank behind several pitchers in their system. It's without a doubt a worthwhile gamble.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Dec 27, 2007 3:09 AM EST up reply actions

hey

My favorite moment was the Willie Harris catch to end the game and seal the series win against the Mets at Shea. I was at that game with my buddy who is a Mets Fan and it was a blast!!

I'm not upset they didn't get Hamilton. I'm sure the brass has something up its sleeve......or at least I hope so 8)

by seifer300 on Dec 24, 2007 8:05 AM EST reply actions

That was a pretty incredible ending

I remember that well. For a while there, Harris was a one-man wrecking crew for the Braves!

Joe Hamrahi

by jhamrahi @ Talking Chop on Dec 26, 2007 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

Moment

Most memorable moment had to be the come from behind win against the Phillies in Spetember... or one that many people prob dont remember was Kellys 3 run homer to give us the lead against the Mets at shea in April... or Smoltz 200th win

and NO WAY to Hamilton we have too many good cf prospects to bring him around

by Jurrjens49 on Dec 24, 2007 3:29 PM EST reply actions

Devil's Advocate.

Gorkys Hernandez is basically Elvis Andrus, Part Deux. All toolsy, very projectable, but no production and plenty of (at least) equally competant prospects/players already ahead of him. I was never sold on Andrus before and I'm not sold on Hernandez now.

Schafer absolutely torched Low-A ball and did very well at High-A, but that's it. He played the bulk of the year in Myrtle Beach, racking up almost 100 strikeouts in just over 400 AB. His defense is legit and he's a gamer, but he's no sure thing with the bat at AA, let alone in the ATL.

What say you?

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by ejruiz on Dec 25, 2007 3:51 PM EST reply actions