A Top Prospect List to Laugh At
We've had the Sickels list, the Baseball America list, and our intrepid list. This prospect list comes to us from Top Prospect Alert:
- Brandon Jones
- Jordan Schafer
- Jair Jurrjens
- Jason Heyward
- Gorkys Hernandez
- Tommy Hanson
- Brent Lillibridge
- Diory Hernandez
- Cole Rohrbough
- Jeff Locke
Yep, that's not a misprint, that's Diory Hernandez sitting at number 8. I'm not really sure what impresses them about Diory. Perhaps they think he's a kin to Gorky's, but that's not the case. Did they even notice that he doesn't have a single extra base hit this winter (30-for-128: all singles). In our top-25, he was ranked by only one person, collectively coming in at number 36.
As was the case last year with their top-25, they don't provide any explanation for why they ranked each player where they did. The appearance of Diory is also not surprising as they listed both Beau Jones and Tim Gustafson (and Anthony Lerew) on last year's list.
The rest of the players on this list are expected to be there, but again, no explanation for why they are ranked where they are, and that's half the fun of most of these lists - reading why players are ranked above or below others.
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Bizarre Mix.
Strange list....
by BC1898 on Dec 19, 2007 1:41 PM EST reply actions
When did Gregor Blanco become a top prospect?
Tommy Hanson....
I myself am wondering how Cody Johnson isn't on the list....
You're right...
I still think that's a little high for him, though... maybe closer to #10 than #6.
what does it matter?
what matters is whos gonna be up there this year, and then this time next year who's gonna be up in 09. Heyward, gorkys hernandez, locke? are you kidding? Cody Johnson? the only projection that matters is who's gonna be there the fastest, and who's there already. I dont understand how you put guys who have been up in the big leagues behind rookie ball guys (i dont see them on this list) but i see it too much. How are hanson, locke, gorkys, etc in front of jo jo? Why dont these lists ever make sense? and why does everyone put so much stock in them? The only thing that's going on here is a bunch of stat checking, no ceiling assessment, no predictions, no nothing.. Also Morton's has some of "the best" stuff in the whole organization (top to bottom) but is now just recently starting to come into his own. Has anyone even mentioned him on a top 25 list? Maybe one person? These lists are the products of stat rats. really no rsearch done, n chances taken..Jake stevens was once on one of these top 10 lists, the kid retired at 21 because ho couldn't advance, Pope was #8 at the beginning of this year..sorry had to vent
plus
Well!
What I agree with you about is just how funny these lists can be, and how protective we all seem to get about our lists and the people we think should be on them. And how we come up with our lists, for that matter. What I think would be awesome would be for gondee to save our lists from, say, this year, as well as all our posts and bickering back and forth as to why so and so should or shouldn't be on the list and all that nonsense. Then, maybe ten years later - long into the careers of Cole Rohrbough and company - and see who was right. The first guarantee you could make is that nobody will have been 100% accurate. Somebody's opinion will have been "more right" than everybody else's, and would be deserving of a big ol' prize. That prize sould be the right to say "I told you so!" in this here public forum.
The fact is, none of us are souts, none of really knows what we are talking about (in the sense that we can accurately make predictions based on stats, projections, crystal balls, or any other means), and if we do, we should run down to Turner Field and get a job. It's funny to see so much anger and defensiveness flare up about all this stuff! What's worse is getting drawn into it - I try not to, I do - but's it's just too tempting!
Sorry....with you on the rant.
And I'm not through!
I dig your style
Haha
Is this even a serious post or is it satirizing something?
Prospect lists take a number of factors into consideration:
1. Age
How old is the player and how much more development time does he have before he hits his age 26-29 peak? Also, was he older than the other players who played at his level?
2. Tools
Does he hit for power? average? Does he run well? Does he have a good arm? Does he play good defense? For pitchers, do they throw hard? Does their fastball have good movement? How are their breaking balls and change-up? Their command?
3. Stats
What numbers did he put up and at what level? How do they look translated to big league numbers?
Schreiber was 25 this season and still pitching in the minors. Cuevas and Morton were 23 and at A-ball and AA-ball. It's no surprise that the only one considered a legitimate prospect by some (Morton) is the only one who's age looks good in context.
None of the pitchers have been tipped to have above average tools, except Morton's curveball.
Stats paint an even worse picture. To illustrate Cuevas's situation, look at this line:
3.55 ERA, 5.05 RA, 4.8 BB/9, 1.39 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, .225 BAA
The ERA looks good until you see the RA. The BAA looks nice too, until you see the BB/9. Nice K/9 rate, but dismal stats put up by a 23 year old at High-A, especially when taken with his 2006 stats at Low A-ball.
Morton's:
4.29 ERA, 4.63 RA, 4.18 BB/9, 1.47 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, .270 BAA
Nothing special at all.
AFL stats:
2.57 ERA, 3.00 RA, 3.43 BB/9, 1.10 WHIP. 8.6 K/9, .205 BAA
These are nice in a limited sample. Let's compare to his 2006 season at High A-ball:
5.40 ERA, 6.30 RA, 4.86 BB/9, 1.70 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, .291 BAA
Schreiber's stats are actually pretty decent, but his age and level makes it unlikely he'll get any better. That's why he's not considered a "prospect".
And as to why all three were protected. 1. They were the best of the bunch that had to be protected. 2. All three could become useful but unspectacular middle relievers.
Muahahah
Actually
Yep, and...
i agree
Though it is hard for me to think that the majority (not all) of the people who post here have much, if any first hand knowledge of the people they write about.. Which troubles me often, primarily because people write about what they've read. And what they read doesn't always come from the most knowledgeable sources. I'll use Morton as an example again. The kid can't put up numbers to save his life. But, he's got so much potential that it kills the braves (because he couldnt do much with it) But why now, after 6 years of playing, are people taking a look at him? Because of one blog and article by dave o'brien! now he's up on your rotation possibility list, people are talking like he has a shot at the club...why?? Because of what you read. The braves believed the whole time or would've been released.. He'd be on your top 30 now wouldn't he? I see the van popes (kid can play) and jc holt and dan smith putting up numbers. loadenthal included, and they're on the lists. I give up..
Uh no
As to your list of players and how valuable they'll be, I'll guess Holt has the best chance to contribute in the major leagues. Pope obviously has a decent chance if he can rebound from last season, but none of his previous three seasons were very impressive at all. The chances of any of them becoming even average major leaguers is extroadinarily low. Mostly because of their age.
As to why age matters, a player typically peaks around 26-29. If someone hasn't figured out how to pitch to hitters in A-ball by age 23, he's probably not going to figure it out at all.
And I'll invite you to go find my prospect list and compare it to Baseball America's. And then understand that Baseball America stays in business by being right more than they're wrong. Please make a list of players in the past five years who's gone unranked on a Baseball America prospect list the year before their major league debut. I'm sure it will be filled with role players and fringe big leaguers.
By the way, what's your definition of a prospect?
What do you mean
Really? what is a tool? you stated its how hard a kid throws, and his movement? ok..so what can you tell me about morton's tools? Cuevas's tools? Schreiber's tool's? if you admitted very little i would agree. Cuevas throws up to 96, schreiber 95. morton 98. what is big league average? 89-91..
what can you tell me about their off speed stuff? what pitches? other than morton's curve? I think you'd need to put your stat sheet down and actually see them pitch to answer that one. And you say a person reaches their physical peak at 26-29 (three years is a ton of time to a professional athlete so that would give cuevas and morton plenty of time to still develop, and schreiber to i guess..
Dont give me this stat wrap. Tell me brad nelson's stuff is half as good as morton's and i'll flip my lid. Tell me morton's stats are better than nelson's.. Then tell me who will be the better big league pitcher
Haha
you mean to tell me
a player of great talent, who can be compared talent wise with the top in his organization. A player that has the potential to be a successful big leaguer. A player who is closest in that class to the big league level. A player who has the highest ceiling in that class. And who is of value to the organization both on and off the field....
And I'm glad for Cuevas, and Morton, that you're not the GM of the braves because according to you they have no tools (even though they really do).. And luckily for them, the people that really matter to their careers believe in them...
you're telling me that no one with poor minor league stats has succeeded in the big leagues? Pope is the best defensive third baseman the braves have and is probably one of the best in all of baseball (bold, yes..) And if they put brad nelson in the big leagues and he posted a 3.4 era will you say, oh well he's 26?
You're telling me scott thorman is an impact player? Josh burrus is an impact player? Bubba Nelson? Dan Meyer, Adam Stern, Luis Hernandez, Martin Prado, Luis Atilano..? all guys who were at one point top ten prospects. I saw your top 30 ranking. You have sung ki jung up who's 28 years old. You have phillip britton on there (seriously?). You have chase fontain ahead of ascanio...And dan smith in your top ten (didnt see that one coming). And as a matter of fact, I've seen these guys play plenty enough to make a very accurate assessment of their abilities to play baseball. Cuevas is a top 20 prospect in the organization, so is morton and i'd probably put schreiber too.
my top 20 or so..
feel free to bash me.. I did it based on my criteria, not putting any item on my criteria before the other. And Also i feel with a lot of these guys, they could have easily been up at least 2 or 3 spots from where they are
Brandon Jones
Jordan Schafer
Manny Acosta
Joey Devine
Jose Ascanio
Tommy Hanson
Brent Lillibridge
Jo Jo Reyes
Jason Heyward
Cole Rohrbough
Cody Johnson
Clint Sammons
Charlie Morton
Van Pope
Jairo Cuevas
Jeff Locke
Zach Schreiber
Sung Ki Jung
Brandon Hicks
Kris Medlen
Deunte Heath
Kala Kaaihue
others
James Parr (could be in the top 20)
Eric Campbell
dustin evans (who has a serious arm)
Dan Smith
Michael Nix
Kevin Gunderson
JC Holt (poor guy wont be a braves top prospect but should end up in the big leagues with someone)
Sorry for wasting y'alls time
My defense
As to Sung-Ki Jung, he lost what, 2004-2006 to military service? He hasn't been given the five seasons to prove himself; rather he posted a 2.16 ERA/11.1 K/9 in 2003 and a 1.31 ERA and 10.67 K/9 in 2007, his only two chances in the minor leagues.
If Brad Nelson, IF, he came to the big leagues and posted a 3.40 ERA, I'd be astounded. The chances of that happening are rather low. Certainly not impossible, but why would someone who's 26 be able to hold major league hitters to a 3.40 ERA when he can't even hold AA hitters to that ERA (his was a 3.77).
For Pope, I've heard you have to be able to hit to hold a job in the big leagues (Nick Punto nonwithstanding). He has a stud glove, but for a guy who supposedly had a breakout season in 2006, he had a .263/.353/.426 line. That was his best season out of four minor league campaigns. Is his shot at making the big leagues over? Probably as a regular 3B because there's no reason to expect him to suddenly figure out how to hit major league pitching when he can't hit minor league pitching. It's ridiculous to assume that would happen.
"And I'm glad for Cuevas, and Morton, that you're not the GM of the braves because according to you they have no tools."
Figuring out tools is something for teenagers to do. If you haven't figured out how to get minor league hitters out by the time you're 23, 24, 26 years old, I don't care how fast you throw or how good your breaking ball is, you just don't have much of a shot at the big leagues. At least less of one than the 19 year old with similar talent.
For the record, my definition of a prospect is a player who has the tools that with polish and experience, can be resonably expected to become a contributor at the major league level. That would exclude 26 year old pitcher who've gotten five years of polish and still have rust.
Stats arent everything
And Jeff Francoeur (still a "ranked" prospect) did not post any special numbers in the minor leagues...
While guys like Andy Marte rode the #1 prospect chart like he owned it, and what has he done that would make you oooh and ahh? Absolutely jack squat...
You're right, I can't think of a good player off the top of my head who wasn't once a "top 20" prospect somewhere along the way, but I am not very stat or prospect list savvy.. : )
These things change. Pope was ranked 8th last year! And already people are knocking him
And Brad Nelson has posted a career 3.29 era, he's 22-9... He put up a mid 2 era in AAA and a mid 3 in the fall league.. Why the heck would you be surprised to see him have the same success in the big leagues? Is a 3.29 era not enough polish for you? Would you not be happy to see a guy in the atlanta bullpen that can put up his numbers?
And Joey Devine, is not an impact player..If anything for the worse..After how many stints in the big leagues? And still he's not an everyday guy..since 05 was it? C'mon
You'll find a large number of people who know a lot about the game say that minor league stats don't tell the story. I know because i've heard a lot of braves coaches and personel say the same thing
The only reason I know Brad Nelson won't pitch for Atlanta in the big leagues is because his stuff is terrible.. But I doubt you even knew it cause you can't talk about a person's tools if you never see them pitch
and are you serious
and as to sung ki
And most of the time in player development, a guy will have a breakout year..at times it could be 2 years into a career, and others it could be 5 or six.. This is a stupid argument, and only because no one knows exactly who's going to be good based on stats..and or prospect rankings.
And "for the record"
your quote
Hmmm ok...
So what your saying is that paul snyder and roy clark should look for other jobs because they're too old? And Dayton and Kurt Kemp should probably too... YOU should be director of player development and scouting director, cross checker, and field director! Because YOU know how to read a stat sheet. And everyone who is 23 or "maybe" 24 and isn't out of high A or maybe AA should be released.
Again
No one should get released simply because they are unlikely to make an impact in the major leagues. That's an extremely stupid idea. All I'm saying here is that these folks you're naming are not "top prospects". They're organizational players who once in a blue moon end up contributing on the major league level.
I don't think you're following this
i'm not puttng words in your mouth
and secondly, again, why do you rule out the fact that guys with little to no minor league success contribute at the big league level. If brad nelson can't put up anything like a 3 or 4 era in the big leagues they would release him. And morton, release him too, because he can't do better than a low 4. And he's nearing the age you specified. And I beg to differ about their status as prospects. Jairo was ranked in the top 20 of the whole carolina league this year, and morton's stock is rising. And what do your rankings of a player have to do with the actual organizations thoughts of the player? Morton has been advanced every single season except 1 in 05 (as i stated before) put in AA, put on the afl rising stars team where he absolutely dealt then threw 5 innings of no hit ball against the second best team in the fall league infront of bobby, frank and roger. He's got an extremely hard fastball (and is more than a big league plus pitch) he has a "devastating curve", and two other big league pitches which you'll hear about soon enough. Dont be surprised if either or both of these two do something very special because their organization has kept the faith and they have the tools to make an impact.
Well depends on the list....
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 20, 2007 4:04 AM EST reply actions
Nail on head
This list from TPA does address the fact that when people don't take the time to do their own research or even write about why a player is ranked where he is ranked then that list does seem foolish and meaningless.

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