Haren to the Dbacks, Valverde to the Astros

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 14, 2007 6:49 PM EST Comment 11 comments

Well, it looks like we are not going to have to worry about Haren Anymore

Dan Haren was just traded to the dbacks for 6 prospects: OF Carols Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham, Pitchers Bret Anderson, Greg Smith, and Dana Eveland, and first basement Chris Carter

5 of those 6 guys (Eveland is not considered eligible) were in the Dbacks top 10 list, with carols gonzalez being considered the best catch. Carter came to them in teh Carlos Quinten Trade earlier this month. According to Rotoworld.com's analysis, Beane went for quantity over quality here. I agree that he gets a ton of prospects, but this does increase the overall depth of their minor league system, so you have to at least consider it a decent bounty. As for the Dbacks, you have to like the move, even though they did trade the farm. However, most of their team is under control for the next three years, being one of the youngest in the majors, and you now have to like their improving offense to go along with Webb and Haren for the next three years. The Dbacks had the luxery to trade away an abundance of young players, and they got the one thing they needed the most in return. Great move for the D'backs, and while they did not get a surefire stud, decent move for the A's

Also, the Dbacks sent closer Jose Valverde to the astros for Chris Burke and Chad qualls. Burke become their superutility guy, while qualls becomes the setup man to Tony Pena. This makes absolutely no sense. You can see the dbacks wanting to get depth at need areas, but they got very little in return. The Cubs have interest in Joe Nathan, but Valverde is under control for longer, and I am sure the Dbacks could have possibly gotter Sean Gallagher and Marmol back for Valverde. The dbacks basically sent an allstar closer away for a downgrade in their utility infielder position, as they also trade away Alberto Callaspo to the royals for a minor league stater, and a downgrade in their bullpen. The Dbacks should have waited and then traded valverde once a team was going to become desperate for him.

However, the Astros now are a decent contender in the Central. They have a good lineup, and a dominant closer, while not really having any pitching, but in the weak NL Central, that offense could be enough to win.

As for the braves reason of interest, Haren being traded means that he is not coming to the braves, and since he is now off the market, this just drives up the Value of Blanton, since one less pitcher is available. Blanton is now probably out of our picture because he would cost too much in terms of prospects.

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I Disagree.

The Astros are not even close to contending, no matter what division, league for even level you put them in. The Brewers, Cubs and even Reds are better than they are. Houston winning the Central or the Wild Card is just plain ridiculous.

I think we should not speculate about what teams could and could not get for their players with any certainty. I happen to believe that both trades were reasonable at worst for the team shipping out its star.

The A's got the players currently listed as the D'Backs #1, #3, #7 and #8 prospects, the Brewers #7 prospect from last year (Eveland) and what looks like a useful ML-ready RP. The Braves equivalent, at least in terms of talent, would have been something along the lines of Jordan Schafer, Jair Jurrjens, Cole Rohrbough, Jeff Locke, Zach Schreiber and Jo-Jo Reyes. Now, that's waaay more than we had previously speculated here and should put that package received into perspective. It's a high price to pay, but they got a young ace cheaply under control for some time to come. They could afford this move because of their youth at the highest level, like you said.

As for the package the same D'backs received for their closer was also solid. Burke should solidify the 2B position even further if they chose to trade Orlando Hudson (something that has been long-rumored) or if he walks as an FA. Gutierrez, like any Astros prospect as this point, is unimpressive. Qualls is the real key to this trade, because he's as seriously underrated pitcher. Last season was among his most dominant and he could well be an effective closer. It's strange that Arizona would make both of these moves (acquire and ace, ship out the closer) but they're not bad deals for anyone involved.

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by ejruiz on Dec 14, 2007 8:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not for Us

We probably couldn't have made that kind of trade for Haren. Infact we couldn't six people. That would have emtied our farm. Also the D'Backs also got Conor Robertson in that trade 2 for 6. Good trade for both teams i think. D'Backs have the potientally to lock up Haren because of their three year salary. What's going on with Randy Johnson? You got Johan out there but no thanks. I say we try Bedard. I really liked him before the season and he proved why i liked him. He could have won the CY probably if he didn't get hurt.

by braves077 on Dec 14, 2007 8:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I would love Bedard. I still think we should look at Prior. That guy just has so much talent and if he can rebound it would be amazing. It's a risk, but imagine if you can sign him to a two or three year incentive based deal and he returns to form? As Borat would say "Nice!"

by surge on Dec 14, 2007 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bedard.

Last I read, the Orioles would be getting two elite prospects from the Reds for Bedard and then some. Believe it or not, we don't have a single guy that fits that description. We could put together a massive package for him, but we've been over why that doesn't work. You could offer a quantity over quality deal like Gorkys Hernandez, Brent Lillibridge, a high minors pitching prospect and one in the low minors. If you really wanted to get somewhere, you could poposed Jordan Schafer, Yunel Escobar, any starting pitching prospect and any reliever prospect. Still not sure if that's enough, but it would be close, I think.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 14, 2007 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That bones it

Ah well. But looking at the realistic cost I'd say go with what we have this year. We'll definitely be in the market for one of these top starters next year.

Let St. Louis, New York, and Philly get in a bidding war over Blanton.

by Something Profound on Dec 14, 2007 10:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

We should not speculate

Is that not what you dou when u suggest trades and things of that nature, including your previous posts. I think speculation is what makes sites like this fun, it lets you know how others think.... I think speculation is expected and is just fine to do.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 15, 2007 10:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Read Carefully.

I said we should not speculate with any certainty. Obviously, I speculate plenty and think it's the whole point of the Hot Stove season as fans, but when you say that you're sure that some team can get a very specific haul for one of their players, I'm just going to have to call you on it. We were all just proven plenty wrong on the whole Haren deal, which isn't new, but should give us all pause.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Dec 15, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts

A's got a lot for Haren. Gonzalez could step in and play right field by July at the latest and put up a .280/.350/.500 right out of the gate. He's going to be a beast. Anderson is a projectionable young lefty, Smith is nearly ML ready, Eveland could be a useful middle reliever for the A's this year, and they got two young hitters Carter and Cunningham who posted absurd stats in A-ball. Kudos to Beane for getting ML ready quality in Gonzalez and a bunch of young talent.
The D-Backs are probably favorites in the West right now. No one can match the top of that rotation. I can't understand the Valverde move, but then again closers are very often over valued and Valverde's value was never going to be higher. They just couldn't have gotten something more than a set-up guy, utility infielder, and a nice arm?
Chris Burke should not be allowed anywhere near the starter's job next season.
There was no way in hell the Braves could've made this move. We didn't have the ML ready talent Arizona included in this deal.
Houston may now win 75 games if Valverde doesn't sharply regress. If he does, they just traded away their best two options to replace him. As dumb as it may look from Arizona's side, Houston essentially traded for a 5 year veteran who's posted a 2.15, 4.25, 2.44, 5.84, and 2.66 ERA in the past five seasons. Unless he's "figured it out" there's a good chance he regresses back to being not so dominant.

BB/9 K/9 H/9
2003 4.65 12.69 4.29
2004 5.16 11.52 6.97
2005 2.71 10.17 6.92
2006 4.01 12.59 9.12
2007 3.64 10.91 6.44

The peripherals aren't terrible, but he doesn't really have a track record of being that type of pitcher consistently. If Arizona thought Pena could close next year, good move for them.

by 17843 on Dec 15, 2007 11:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Top Flight Starter

If we would have or if we do acquire a top flight starter that is a FA at the end of the year and if we resign them it would take some of the pain away if we didn't resign TEX. Would you either resign the P or Tex. It's a tough question.

by braves077 on Dec 15, 2007 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Eh Not really

It is my feeling that the Cubs wanted a closer, as they have shown interest in Joe Nathan, and it was my feeling that the dbacks want young arms, so that is the trade bounty I would have suspected them to ask for. That is all I was doing, speculation or not, it is not really worth speculating unless you get into specifics, as I did.

by bravessuperbeast on Dec 15, 2007 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My $0.02

Valverde may have been a salary dump and he's been injury prone. Qualls can be just as good, and cheaper. Burke gives them a MI/OF utility player, basically replacing Callypso who they soured on after a domestic abuse incident.
Webb and Haren at the top of the rotation is quite impressive. They gave up a lot of prospects, but their lineup is so young it's not going to affect them too bad. Their farm system should be ready to produce by the time they'll need to rely on the farm. Carlos Gonzales is a boom or bust prospect (plate discipline). I think Aaron Cunningham is a real sleeper. I think AZ may have issues at 1B/3B but none of the traded prospects were going to play there anyway, except for Carter but he may have been acquired specifically for this trade.

by Recon on Dec 17, 2007 11:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs