The Cost of Haren
The Braves have done a lot of wheeling and dealing this off-season - three trades with prospects and veterans coming and going - and we signed a free agent starting pitcher who also happens to be an old friend, but some Braves fans want more. If there was ever a time to really rebuild our starting pitching staff through a trade then this might be the off-season (assuming, of course, one can really rebuild a starting pitching staff with a trade - even the best intentioned trades don't always work out... Mike Hampton). The names that are available this winter read like the roster of an All-Star game - Johan Santana, Eric Bedard, Joe Blanton, and Dan Haren.
We've already seen the D-Train traded in a mega-swap of mega-stars and mega-prospects - that trade set the price in terms of prospect talent for the game's best proven starting pitching talent. ESPN's Peter Gammons lays out the trade landscape like this:
Then, with at least eight to 10 contenders looking for pitching, the focus will be on Joe Blanton as Billy Beane tries to restructure the Athletics. "Once Santana, Kuroda, Haren and Bedard are gone," says one GM, "then Blanton will bring a ton. Billy is doing this perfectly."
Gammons is usually on the pulse of the interworkings of baseball's trade market more than not. This piece got me thinking about what it would cost the Braves to get a pitcher like Haren or Bedard, or a pipe dream of Santana (though, we'd never be able to sign him).
Gammons lists the package of Arizona prospects that starts the discussions with the Athletics as Gonzalez, Anderson, and Bonifacio. Baseball America ranks those prospects this year as the numbers one, three, and six prospects respectively in the Arizona system. BA lists our one, three, and six prospects as Jordan Schafer, Jair Jurrjens, and Brent Lillibridge - that puts the cost for Dan Haren in serious perspective. Those players are not only three of our top five or six prospects, but they are also three prospects that are the closest to the majors (save for Brandon Jones). And this comparison assumes those three prospects of ours would actually be enough to get a Haren or Bedard without including anyone else (and assumes that Billy Beane doesn't penalize us for the last haul of "prospects" he got from us for one of his ace pitchers).
A trade like this would put a major dent in our minor league system, and take away three potential starters in the next couple of years in favor of one starting pitcher - albeit an ace starting pitcher who is amazingly affordable for the next three years.
Could we really absorb a blow like this in terms of prospects? After all, we just traded three of our top five prospects to Texas not more than five months ago. Would a team actually think of trading three more top prospects away within the same calendar year? (Tigers fans should answer in the affirmative.)
I bring this up because the Gammons piece got me thinking about the actual price and I wanted to put up a realistic scenario, as many Braves fans on this site and others have been throwing around some less than realistic scenarios in which they think we could get Haren (or even Bedard or Blanton) for lesser prospects or non-prospects. This is a trade that would also have a big impact on our major league ready prospect potential that I don't think many fans have considered. Of course, maybe they're just considering the impact that a Dan Haren would have when added to a staff of Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine - and the impact that would have on the NL East race for years to come.
I know I don't have the right answer - to trade prospects or let them grow into potential stars. I've been going back and forth on the whole Teixeira trade since it happened, and I still don't know how I feel about it. Anyway, this is certainly something to think about and ponder. I wonder if Frank Wren and company have thought about it or considered it or had discussions with Mr. Moneyball himself.
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BigD
Gondee, what's your opinion on us resigning Tex? Some of the ESPN guys in their chats say we have no chance. That would make the trade look a little questionable in my opinion. However, Shuerholtz is much smarter than I. Thanks.
by BigD on Dec 12, 2007 9:38 AM EST reply actions
Thanks
All of these things will come into play and it may take a year to really sink in with Teixeira. Perhaps he'll realize too that you don't have to be the highest paid player to make a lot of money.
From the Braves side, we'll have to see how their new revenue streams work out and if they can create even more payroll room next year. So for now, we really can't say one way or another if the Braves will be able to resign Tex, there's just too much that could happen between now and then.
My Two Cents.
If he walks, he'd likely be a Type A which, combined with Mahay's Type B status, means that we'd get three total draft picks as compensation. Consider the fact that Gorkys Hernandez is a solid replacement for Elvis Andrus and Jair Jurrjens more than does the same for Matt Harrison, that leaves just Neftali Feliz, Beau Jones and Jarrod Saltalamachia to replace. I believe that the first two can be addressed with our compensatory picks (assuming we miss on one), while Salty is pretty much a sunk cost. If you look at it that way, we basically traded Rents and Salty for Tex and Mahay. Seems like a much more reasonable deal to walk away from, doesn't it?
hey
Our prospects are ok but not as good as others that can be used to aquire those guys so I really think the Braves are done shopping for starters.
As far as signing Teixeira, I am hoping when Wren said we would have "millions more" to spend that he meant extending Mark. Who knows but there is still time left for some transaction to go down.....I just hope the Braves are involved!!
by seifer300 on Dec 12, 2007 10:15 AM EST reply actions
However, we do actually matchup well....
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 12:31 PM EST reply actions
worth it
by emerson on Dec 12, 2007 12:38 PM EST reply actions
And one more thing...
Oakland got: Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, Charles Thomas
Braves got: Tim Hudson
Now, I do not think that the man will hold a personal grudge, but I do think that trade is a main reason he is demanding so much, because he wants proof more than potential this time around, because the potential never panned out for him in that trade.
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 12:38 PM EST reply actions
dan meyer
i think dan meyer is still a breakout waiting to happen. beane wouldnt trade haren if he didnt think he had someone waiting in the wings that would be an adequate replacement. so all is not lost for the A's in the trade. but yea chucky-T and cruz were definite busts
by darthspiderman on Dec 15, 2007 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
excuse me, i mean i like jurrjens over reyes
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 12:40 PM EST reply actions
hey
by seifer300 on Dec 12, 2007 12:52 PM EST reply actions
oops and they will also receive...........
by seifer300 on Dec 12, 2007 1:02 PM EST reply actions
Worth it
Regarding Tex. I believe they will have the money to do it, it will just come down to Boras and Tex accepting it.
Should be an interesting year for the Braves and their fans!!!
the Tejada trade
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 1:42 PM EST reply actions
1/4 work out?
I LOVED the Hudson trade because the prospects that were dealt were over performers. The A's won;t be so dumb again. The O's might...
Trade talk
We can talk all we want about going to get this player or that player. But budget is the overriding factor. In the long-run, teams are far better off to go with younger players who can develop into stars than buy a bunch of overpaid aging players who give a team one or two good years at best, then load the team up with budget issues. Players seem to want these four, five and longer year contracts. When a guy is already 30, the chances of him producing at the same level for another six years is pretty slim.
I know it's not Mike Hampton's fault, but his case is a perfect example. His salary alone is equal to two or three younger players who would have contributed more.
Except for a handful of players(probably less than 10 percent of all in the majors), I don't know anyone in the majors today who I would want to pay big bucks for based on the expectation that they would produce at the same level for the next five years. The Braves already have at least six guys in that category: Chipper, Franceour, Texeria, McCann, Smoltz and Hudson.
by westcoastbrave on Dec 12, 2007 1:59 PM EST reply actions
westcoastbrave is ever so right !
Serious baseball enthusiasts understand that great teams happen when the farm system produces and you add in a couple of guys with their best years (AND entry level salary years) still ahead of them. The John Smoltz trade being the best case in point.
Most fans don't know enough about undervalued young talent to advocate specific trades like that one. So like spoiled children they ask Daddy for the expensive, popular toy all the other kids want.
The Braves need to get back to basics. Think long term. Make development the top priority. Spend frugally so you'll have the cash when the next generation's young Greg Maddux is available. Trade overvalued prospects or expensive older players for undervalued young talent.
And stop playing into the hands of the agents with deals like the JD Drew rental or the Hampton speculation.
CF options
by surge on Dec 12, 2007 2:38 PM EST reply actions
NO WAY, not at all
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 4:00 PM EST reply actions
Furthermore,
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 4:01 PM EST reply actions
Hudson trade.
St. Louis Cardinals get
Mark Mulder
Oakland Athletics get
Kiko Calero
Daric Barton
and...Danny Haren.
Daric Barton is going to be a beast. He's 21 and was hurt in 2006, but looked real good when he came up in late '07. We already know what Calero and Haren have brought to the table.
I would whole-heartedly try to get Haren and trade anyone in the farm not named Schafer (I'm on the fence regarding Heyward, but I'd have to consider the rest of the names before saying yes).
What I WOULDN'T do is if we don't get Haren, don't get desperate and offer some crazy ass package for Blanton. Its the exact same situation as the Hudson/Mulder caper. Make your offer for Haren and if the A's decline, either go to the O's for Bedard or call it an offseason and go with starters we have. I just don't think Blanton is the answer.
Next year will be the year that we need to get that headline starter anyways. Getting him this year would make us elite, but next year will be when we truely need one.
by Something Profound on Dec 12, 2007 5:44 PM EST reply actions
A's
Schafer, Lillibridge, and Jurrjans
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 6:40 PM EST reply actions
No Blanton Yes Harden
Hey I am all for Harden...
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 7:11 PM EST reply actions
Harden.
Hell yea
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 7:34 PM EST reply actions
Trading for Haren.
Haren is a big time no
The only possibility would be the Braves to go after Blanton. hes got nice movement on his stuff and could easily fit into the number 3 spot in the Braves rotation with Glavine and Jurrgens/Reyes following. That would make the Braves staff one of the top in the majors to go along with a batting order that was in consideration for the best, until the tigers went nuts.
If Wren could somehow pull a "blanton is a number 3 starter on our staff" card with BB, then that would be some master negotiating. but in all likelyhood the Braves would likely need to give up either a current major leaguer and prospects, or a couple top 5 minor leaguers. Earlier in the year, i mentioned a Blanton for Kelly Johnson/Joey Devine swap. That would allow Brent Lillibridge to get his shot at the the starting infield and the loss of Devine can give Soriano a little much needed clarity. If Wren wanted to go the prospects only route, a package of Brent Lillibridge/Jair Jurrgens/Joey Devine would work nicely. The loss of these three players would not leave any holes on next years team, and the Braves do not mortgage away their future with that trade either.
Next year is an excitiing time for the Braves. With the acquisition of Tex, the Braves are going head first into the World Series plunge. Picking up a solid, innings eater pitcher like Blanton would, without a doubt, put the Braves as NL WS favorite for 2008.
How does this look?:
World Series 2008- Atlanta Braves vs. Detroit Tigers
by MIZIKE74 on Dec 12, 2007 7:36 PM EST reply actions
Haren v. Blanton.
I think you're also undervaluing Devine here, probably based of his few innings in the majors. He was initially rushed, then shuttled back and forth from Atlanta to the minors, both for no good reason. That said, his numbers in the minors are very impressive and he still has future closer written all over him.
Schafer had a breakout season with the bat last year and will at very least be an excellent overall defensive OF, but we also have Gorkys Hernandez in the fold now and, like I said above, could always play Jason Heyward at his natural position in RF and move Jeff Francouer over to CF.
Personally, I could go either way I guess, but if we make a big move, I'd look to make the biggest one possible.
its debatable...
and am I undervaluing Devine here? In three years of work he sporting: 25 IP, 15 ER, 22 BB, 20 K, 63 ERA+, 6.86 ERA, 2.186 WHIP. yikes, over three years? he still cant get it together? the BB/k ratio is maybe the most uninspiring number in the Braves system (8/7 in 2007). His minor league numbers are respectable, but that is what makes him great trade bait. Braves fans have seen him play for the majors. some guys have it and some guys dont. Devine doesn't. he tops out as a set-up.
but i see what you are saying. go big or go home. especially since next year is the year to do it. both pitchers would put the staff over the top. it just down to how you feel about the Braves giving away a large chunk of their future for Tex and Haren
by MIZIKE74 on Dec 12, 2007 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
Astros Trade
Blanton
by bravessuperbeast on Dec 12, 2007 8:05 PM EST reply actions

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