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Talking with the Enemy: Off-Season Edition

I thought I'd take this slow news time and swap some questions with one of our division rival's blogs. Below are five questions that I asked Eric Simon of Amazin' Avenue about how the Mets off-season is going. As one of our biggest rivals, I thinks it's important to keep tabs on what the other teams in the division are up to. I also answered some questions of his about the Braves that should be posted soon.

Q: There seemed to be a lot of sour feelings from Mets fans when Tom Glavine left, but didn't you always think that he would go back to the Braves? Where does the animosity come from?

A: To be honest, I don't think a lot of Mets fans were sad to see him go. Over the course of his five seasons in New York he transitioned nicely from hired gun to rotation stalwart, but his last game as a Met -- the 1/3 inning meltdown against the Marlins on 2007's final day -- probably sealed his fate in the hearts of Mets fans. I think $8 million is a very reasonable sum for one year of Glavine's services, and I wish him luck back in Atlanta. I don't know that he ever really wanted to leave, but John Schuerholz low-balled him in 2002 and Glavine reluctantly took all of the money the Mets threw at him.

To answer your question more directly, I don't think Mets fans have sour feelings about Glavine leaving, but rather they feel he let them down with his performance in that final game.

Q: How do you feel about your starting pitching now? Will Pedro and Orlando hold up?

A: Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez are definite question marks health-wise, but Pedro looked very good in his short time back at the end of 2007 and I think everyone is optimistic about his 2008. If the Mets can get 25-30 starts out of each of them they will be very strong in the starting pitching department. John Maine and Oliver Perez, both of whom the Mets picked up for next to nothing, showed flashes of brilliance in 2007 that were punctuated with stretches of inconsistency. If they can tighten things up a bit and go from "sometimes excellent, sometimes so-so" to "almost always good-to-great" then the Mets will be in very good shape.

Q: Why were the Mets hell-bent on letting Paul Lo Duca walk? With Johnny Estrada, you're not really getting a catcher who is that much better, maybe a bit younger, but look at their career numbers:
       Lo Duca - .288/.338/.414
       Estrada - .280/.320/.406
Do you actually gain anything with Estrada?

A: Mets management had reportedly soured on Lo Duca's attitude, and they probably thought better of offering a multi-year deal to a soon-to-be 36-year-old catcher with little defensive value and a declining offensive skillset. The Mets could do far worse than Lo Duca, but his offensive value is completely tied to his batting average. He hits for zero power and rarely walks, so with batting averages fluctuating as they do, you are as likely to get a poor season from Lo Duca as you are a decent one.

Johnny Estrada is nothing special, and he has attitude baggage of his own. There is some talk that the Mets may still look elsewhere for someone to split time at catcher with Ramon Castro, and if they do they would simply non-tender Estrada or look to spin him off to someone else. That said, dealing for Estrada was more about unloading Guillermo Mota than it was about acquiring another catcher. If the Mets ultimately hang on to Estrada for 2008, a one-year, $4.5 million deal to him makes a lot more sense than a two- or three-year deal for more money to Lo Duca.

Q: What kind of damage did last year's end of season collapse do to your fan base? With basically the same team returning next year (to this point), can Mets fans really get excited about this team?

A: I think Mets fans will be okay, and will look to draw on their two strengths: Their resiliency and the fact that they have grown accustomed to their team's history of heart-breaking failure. There is plenty to be excited about this team, from the (hopefully) continued development of David Wright and Jose Reyes, to another strong year from Carlos Beltran, to young starters like John Maine and Oliver Perez working out their kinks and becoming better pitchers in the process.

I think there will be a different feel heading in 2008 than there was last year. In 2006 the Mets were a couple of hits away from going to the World Series, so 2007 was a chance to show that 2006 wasn't a fluke. The Mets obviously missed the playoffs in 2007, but I think the flukish thing about 2006 was the performance of the rest of the NL East. The Mets' closest competition rebounded with a strong 2007 while the Mets stayed about the same.

2008 will be about the Mets showing they can rebound from a horrendous end to the 2007 season and to show that they have the talent and the consistency to play well for an entire season.

Q: In your eyes, what missing pieces do the Mets need to add in order to win the division?

A: I think the Mets are good enough right now to win the division. They certainly won't be runaway favorites without some additional changes, but they were a game away from making the postseason last year and neither the Braves nor the Phillies are likely to get significantly stronger this offseason. The Mets will look to bring in a frontline starting pitcher at this year's winter meetings as well as bolster a bullpen that wore down at the end of 2007.

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Heck every team has starters they want 25-30 from
that would make them a much better team (for us, its Hampton, along with the age-injury risk of Smoltz and Glavine).  Every team also has inconsistent starters they hope will develop into reliable guys.  Trick is, very few teams are lucky enough to actually get them.  The mets pitching, as it stands, will need a lot of luck to be 'in very good shape'.

Estrada trade won't make the Mets a better team, but its was a good move in that they didn't give up anything to get a 1 year, affordable replacement for the offense they had been getting (or not getting) from Lo Duca.

Do think he's right that the Mets are good enough to win the division; I'd definitely give the edge to the Braves, but not enough to feel comfortable, and there is the chance the Mets could really upset the balance by making a big splash with a trade for more pitching (hope not).

by abravesfan on Nov 24, 2007 10:53 AM EST   0 recs

hmm..
well the Braves didn't get "significantly stronger" but they did get a decent SP out of Glavine and we got rid of that fat chipmunk we had in CF. we did get rid of Renteria and he was a Mets and Phillies killer so all in all I think the Braves got a teeeeeny bit better.

by RehabReject on Nov 24, 2007 11:11 AM EST   0 recs

I love these..
I love when we get the opinion of other teams blog writers. Maybe next time you could get the opinions of the Good Phight's writer. I get sick of all the Met exposure everywhere. It was so good to have everyone at ESPN predict the Mets hands down to win the division and then not see them advance to the playoffs.

by surge on Nov 24, 2007 11:38 AM EST   0 recs

Oliver Perez
could only beat the Braves. I wouldn't feel very comfortable with the Mets front 5. Although they'll probably sign Haren/Santana/someone before it's all said and done.

by TradeAndruw on Nov 24, 2007 12:01 PM EST   0 recs

Maine and Perez.
Those two guys were, in aggregate, among the top 30 starting pitchers in baseball.  Look at their numbers (ERA, WHIP and K/9) and set aside the rivalry, you'll see that both kids were very good.  I think our rotations are just about even, I'd give their bullpen a slight edge and the line-ups are awfully close.  As a fan, I have to believe that my Braves should be favored, but it's awfully close at this point.  That sid, the Mets are much more likely to improve their club from this point on than we are...
Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Nov 24, 2007 1:12 PM EST   0 recs

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