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Did we get our Renteria's Worth?

Less than 24 hours after the end of the World Series the Braves new General Manager, Frank Wren, wasted no time making the first trade of the hot stove league (it would have been the first move of any kind, but A-Rod announced his decision to opt-out of his contract even before the last Red Sock made it out of the dugout to celebrate). Yes, we thought we would have to hear these story lines all off-season; will the Braves sign Andruw Jones, will they trade Edgar Renteria, will they re-sign Tom Glavine. Well, mark the second one off the list, and at this rate we'll have Glavine signed a week before Thanksgiving, then we'll be able to kick back and take the rest of the hot stove league off.

Today's move, trading Renteria to Detroit, was as unexpected as it was expected (huh?). On one hand many people thought that Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski would be able to strike something up with former assistant / now Atlanta GM Frank Wren. If I had gotten the chance to speculate on off-season moves I would have mentioned that both Dombrowski and Tigers manager Jim Leyland are familiar with Renteria from their time together in the Marlins organization.

The unexpected parts of this trade were the suddenness with which it happened and the lack of major league service time we got in return. Who's to know how much we shopped Renteria during the World Series, but it sure looks like we took the first offer. What we got in return for Renteria was a bit of a surprise. The Tigers seem to have a gold rush of good young starting pitching. Much of it was on display last post season in the World Series, but still more of it made its way to the Majors this year. Everyone could probably figure that Verlander was off limits, but I'm sure any of the other guys like Bonderman or Robertson, Miller or Tata were available. So what made us choose Jair Jurrjens (other than after trading Saltalamacchia we had to acquire someone with an equally difficult name to spell)?

No doubt the Braves were probably the most familiar with Jurrjens. He is from Curacao, and the Braves have traditionally had a strong presence there (see Andruw Jones, Randall Simon). The early returns from at least one prospect guru are that Jurrjens is already a solid number four starter in the big leagues, with a little room to grow. While that not may seem like something to trade for, consider for a moment that we really had no fourth or fifth starter on our staff last year, unless you count the fifth starter we had masquerading as a third starter. So in rebuilding the Braves starting pitching (which was the strength behind the 14 straight division titles), Frank Wren has chosen to at least get the process off the ground and start somewhere. This may also be a bit of a vote of no confidence in either Chuck James and/or Jo-Jo Reyes.

This trade also erases some of the gutting of the Braves top prospects that took place during the Mark Teixeira trade. Jurrjens essentially replaces Matt Harrison on the Braves depth chart (if not a bit more advanced), and Gorkys Hernandez replaces Elvis Andrus, albeit at a different position. Hernandez too, may be a bit further along than Andrus was at this point. He's spent less time in the minors, but he's already shown more offensive muscle than Andrus has at any stop he's had the last three years. Gorkys is by far the most intriguing part of this trade, but do we really need a Gorkys Hernandez in our farm system right now? The talented glut of young outfielders in the minors for Atlanta was sprawled across our recent Braves 2008 Top-25 Prospect List collaboration. Jordan Schafer, Brandon Jones, and Jason Heyward were rated as the top three prospects in the Braves system, and Cody Johnson came in at number seven - all outfielders.

This sort of begs the question, "is this the last stop for Gorkys this off-season?" In an interview today after the trade, Frank Wren mentioned that he had already received calls from several GMs around the league who were interested in acquiring Hernandez. With that in mind, we'll have to wait to see what the final tally will be, but if he truly is desired by another club with pitching to offer, then let's make another deal.

The Brave did accomplish their main goal (and the goal many fans had) in a trade of Renteria, and that was to strengthen their starting rotation. While the rotation wasn't given a major addition like Hudson was in 2004, or Hampton and Ortiz were in 2002, it nonetheless was given a much-needed shot of stability. With the presumed price of starting pitching - especially established starting pitching - there is also something to be said for the fact that not every piece is acquirable or worth the price paid to acquire. Asking for a more established pitcher may have required more than just Renteria in return - a blow that our farm system may not be able to withstand. So check off that extra starting pitcher, and add an uber-talented young outfielder and a load of salary off the books that could be used to fill out a number 47 jersey, and while we didn't get any name we knew, we got solid pieces in return.

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Kudos.
Well said, gondee.  I'm undecided about this trade, but I think it's a work in progress (how will our opinion of this change if/when we sign Glavine and/or make another significant trade) so I'll give it some time to work out.

I like Jurgens anywhere behind Smoltz and Huddy, though I really hope we can get him at #5 or even some time at AAA.  As for Hernandez, I think it helps to have depth in the minors.  I believe Heyward will end up at 1B (maybe ready by 2009 to replace Tex or 2010 at the latest) and that allows on of Schafer, Cody Johnson and Gorkys.

On a side note, there is no way that Andrew Miller is anymore available than Tim Lincecum, since they were ranked similarly as prospects; I agree that Verlander is definitely off limits.  Bonderman was too much for Rents and Robertson too little, while I think Jurgens and change was just right.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Oct 29, 2007 9:45 PM EDT   0 recs

I like the trade...
because the Braves get someone who can step into the #5 spot in the rotation at very low cost, and is under the Braves control for several more seasons.  The other guys for the Tigers (Bonderman and Robertson) are only marginally better but MUCH more expensive.  And Robertson's a lefty which we won't need if Hampton is healthy and Glavine is signed, with James and Reyes in the mix too.

With Hernandez, the Braves get another potential replacement for Andruw should Schaffer fail to hit, while at the same time adding an element of speed that has been lacking in the Braves system for several years.

by kray1000 on Oct 30, 2007 12:18 AM EDT   0 recs

Reyes
I think we are sleeping a bit on reyes. I still believe he could be a solid #3 starter in the majors. He struggled a bit at the majors last year, but he definitely improved as the season progressed. He had a 3.10 ERA in September and was 2-0. All he needs to do is cut down on the walks some and he could be a nice addition to the club next year.
.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Oct 30, 2007 12:26 AM EDT   0 recs

And Frank said
Of Jo Jo and the new guy:

"If they're not in the rotation at the beginning of next year, they're going to be in there very quickly over the course of the next season, season and a half," Wren said. "They're both going to be in our rotation for a long, long time."

As far as some speculation that we might flip the outfielder somewhere else, I interpret Wren's intentions in this one:
"We felt like this was the one area where we could acquire talent as well as put ourselves in position to make other moves," Wren said.

I hope Schafer is the long term replacement.  

by secondbass on Oct 30, 2007 5:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Did we get our Renteria's worth?
Once again the Braves begin the off season trading for what can only be labeled a giant question mark.  At this rate we will begin spring training with as many of those question marks as we have at the present. When will we learn the filling question marks with question marks does not a winner make. Im not saying that we should not deal Renteria. But Renteria brought to our ball club not only talent, but something that does not necessarly show up on a stat sheet, and that is chemistry and desire. To waste that on another question mark is unthinkable.

by cole1961 on Oct 30, 2007 8:59 AM EDT   0 recs

Good Trade
After reading up on the two guys we got back, I have to say I'm in favor of the trade.  We got two cheap, high-ceiling guys back by dealing from a strength; dumped some payroll; and added a much needed back of the rotation SP.  And I'll like it even more if Wren and company can flip Hernandez (or one of our other OF prospects) into another pitcher.

A lot of us have expressed our faith in the Frank Wren era.  I guess we can consider this deal the first test of that faith.

by VegasAces on Oct 30, 2007 9:00 AM EDT   0 recs

Jurrjens is injury insurance/'09 starter
I highly doubt the Braves expect Jurrjens to be in the major league rotation next year. They'll almost certainly sign Glavine and then have a rotation of

Smoltz
Hudson
Glavine
James
Hampton

with Reyes getting the first shot at a spot if somebody (Hampton) is injured. I do really like what I'm reading about Jurrjens, however. A hard thrower with movement and a devastating off speed pitch is exactly the kind of pitcher they need to be targeting. Enough with the soft tossers who depend on umpires being generous on the corners or hitters swinging at pitches just outside.

by Ron24 on Oct 30, 2007 9:22 AM EDT   0 recs

The "Cast of Thousands"
My approach/view on the rotation is thus, assuming Glavine is signed:

Smoltz
Hudson
Glavine
James

and the proverbial "cast of thousands" rounds out the fifth spot.  Basically, stockpile possibilites in the offseason and come spring, it's an open job - Jurrjens, Reyes, Hampton, possibly Cormier, Carlyle, Bennett.  Heck, throw Villareal in the mix as well. May the best man win, and the rest are either 1) sent to AAA, 2) traded, or 3) released.

by VegasAces on Oct 30, 2007 10:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hampton
Why would anyone expect Hampton to be healthy and ready to pitch a full season?  I sure don't trust him.

by Iostcause on Oct 30, 2007 10:18 AM EDT   0 recs

From a baseball site I write for
BaseballEvolution.com
Keith Glab's take, excerpted

Renteria is 32 years old and coming off what the Tigers must believe to be a resurgent year.  His .332 batting average was a career-high, and his .390 OBP and .470 SLG were each the second best marks of his career.  You don't have to believe in PrOPS (Renteria outperformed his by 72 points in 2007) to realize that this was indeed a fluke season.  Renteria has only twice posted an OPS over .803, the other instance coming with the Cardinals in 2003.  He had a .375 batting average on balls he put in play and a .331 batting average with runners in scoring position, each of which are way out of line with anything Renteria had done in the three previous seasons.

I don't think anyone but Detroit would've given up two high-ceiling guys for Renteria. Escobar should be ready to take over, and all should be well.

by Gregory Pratt on Oct 30, 2007 10:33 AM EDT   0 recs

Interesting.
Hey all, been away for a while.  Not fun living in the same house with a Red Sox fan.

Anyways, news of this trade has brought me back to this site.  Terrific write up Gondee, and after reading up on Hernandez I think this deal could work out very well for us.  Initially I was upset because I wanted a legit #3 starter in return for Rent, but as stated above, he did play over his ceiling last year and by getting two top flight prospects in return I think Wren did well.

I do have one question though...with all the talk of signing Glavine back, which I am for, do we have any idea of the type of salary he is going to demand?  Is he going to give us a discount?  

Just curious.

by Smoltzs Beard on Oct 30, 2007 11:58 AM EDT   0 recs

Gotta say...
Anyone who thinks Hampton 'competes' for the 5th starter's role is crazy.

When you pay a guy as much as they are paying Hampton, you send him out every fifth day until he A.) Hurts himself, B.) Wins you ballgames C.) Proves himself effective enough to be traded or D.) Loses 7 straight starts.

Hampton has a spot. Assuming Glavine is signed and barring a trade James, Reyes, Jurrjens and MAYBE Bennett compete for the 5th spot. If Hampton, or anyone else for that matter, gets hurt, the 4 and 5 are filled from those three.

by jjschiller on Oct 30, 2007 12:35 PM EDT   0 recs

Reality Check.
People seem to be upset about this deal because they had an unrealistic expectation on the returns for Rents.  The guy is 32, had the second best season of his career by far and has only two years left on his contract at the most.  Jurrjens may not be proven at the ML-level, but his MiL track record is sterling and the scouting reports are promising.  Hernandez reminds me of Andrus in that the scouts are amazed by him, even though the stats aren't exactly bearing that out; Gorkys is farther along than Elvis, but that can be chalked up to the slight difference in age.  Bottomline is this: we got two top 5 prospects from a franchise for a surplus veteran poised for decline... I say good deal!
Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Oct 30, 2007 7:08 PM EDT   0 recs

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