Mixed Reviews on the Trade

by gondeee on Jan 17, 2007 10:50 PM EST in Trade News Comment 13 comments

I call it a slight win for Atlanta, but really it's probably more of a win-win for both clubs. In terms of Major League impact Pittsburgh may have actually gotten the better end of the deal, but I think that Atlanta believes that in a first-baseman they traded from a position in which they can readily fill from within Minor League system - read Scott Thorman. And Thorman is one who adjusts each year to the new level he is promoted to. His Minor League Equivalencies from last year say that he could be a 25-homer, almost .800 OPS guy at the Major League level. And I've been meaning to say for weeks, if I haven't already, that for a seventh hitter in the batting order do we need LaRoche (after Chipper, Andruw, McCann, and Frenchy) to be putting up 35/105. I really think we are better off having a shut-down lefty in the pen who can also close, and a free-swinging thumper who can belt out 25+ homeruns and develop into a 35-homer guy for the following season. In the past we've had much worse in the seventh and eighth (left field or second base) spots in the order and we've managed just fine. If we can allow time for guys like Kelly Johnson and/or Scott Thorman to develop while they hit just below the league average in those spots then I'm for it.

Around the Pirates blogosphere there are also some mixed feelings.

Bucs Dugout has a great added-to and added-to post that reads like a play by play of who would fill out the trade. He was initially really excited about the deal adding:

As long as we're not talking about Andrew McCutchen, Brent Lillibridge or Neil Walker - and I don't see the Bucs trading any of those guys - this sounds too good to be true.

Oops! He comes around to the thought of losing Lillibridge, but still seems to have mixed feelings:

Actually, I have a feeling that I'll start to have second thoughts about this deal in a couple hours, but I'll try to keep reminding myself about what we got: a young, left-handed, 30-homer player who finished in the Top 10 in the NL in OPS last year. I like Lillibridge a lot and am more concerned with losing him than with losing Gonzalez, but Lillibridge is still barely out of Class A ball, has never shown much power and has been old for his levels. If the Pirates had some magic plan to compete in 2010, this wouldn't be the best deal, but they don't, so I won't worry too much about this.

Lillibridge is being billed as a prospect who's still a couple of years away from the Majors, but I wonder if the Braves organization thinks differently. With college prospects they can advance rapidly, but Lilli had a huge power drop-off last year when he was promoted to hi-A that might concern some. But looking further into his numbers he improved his batting average and his plate discipline when he was promoted and really didn't sacrifice that much power (considering). I would not be surprised to see him at the top of some people's short list for Braves opening day second basemen/lead-off man next year (remember, Furcal started out playing some second).

In other Pirates blog news, Bucco Blog is just glad it's finally done and seems to like the end result.

Also, no one is talking about how the Pirates kept all of their young starters - Snell, Duke, Gorzelanny, Maholm - we all thought the Braves would be able to snag one, but instead they seemed to have settled for a middle infield prospect (or were they after him all along, hummm).

Where have you gone, Andy Van Slyke thinks it's a bummer that the Bucs had to give up Brent Lillibridge, but in the end thinks is was worth it to get LaRoche. Just as the Braves traded from a position of strength at first base, the Pirates traded from their strength in the pen and the middle infield.

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WOW

So i just got off work and read this on ESPN. Can't believe it actually happened. I don't know anything off the cusp about the other guy we got. I mean, the trade seems fairly even if we just gave up laroche for gonzales. Are we overreacting to having such a horrible ullpen last year? I dunno, but now we have a dominant bullpen that could pick up the slack for any starting deficiencies we may have this year. I like it because i like thorman. Lets see if this leads to anything with TB. I'll probably post again later with more thoughts.

.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Jan 17, 2007 11:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Project

I checked over BP's PECOTA. Thorman's a bit of a drop from LaRoche. Gonzalez should be good. The real prize here is Lillibridge, who could replace Renteria in a few years. He's got great discipline, putting up a .426 OBP at high A, great glove and good baserunning ability. He's now one of the Braves' top ten prospects. But he's also 23. So this is a make-or-break year for him at AA.

Upside -- he could be the leadoff man we've been loooking for. Downside, he's a nifty utility guy.

One other thing to think about -- LaRoche will be arbitration eligible soon and is the kind of player -- hitting 30 homers in his peak, that could get a lot more than he's worth. Plus, he has a tendency to drive Cox batty.

In general, I hate trading for relief pitchers. But Gonzales is 28, has a career 2.37 ERA and 183 K's in 156 innings. We didn't trade Salty or any of our top guys. So I'm neutral on this trade. And considering Schuerholz's record, this could turn out well.

by mhsiegel14 on Jan 17, 2007 11:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

So lets just look at things

2B Kelly Johnson
SS Edgar Renteria
3B Chipper Jones
CF Andruw Jones
C Brian McCann
RF Jeff Francoeur
1B Scott Thorman/Matt Diaz (platoon maybe?)
LF Matt Diaz/Ryan Langerhans/Greg White

Bench
Martin Prado
Ryan Langerhans
Willy Aybar
Brayan Pena
Greg White or Chris Woodward (most heated battle in ST)

SP
John Smoltz
Tim Hudson
Mike Hampton
Chuck James
Kyle Davies/Anthony Lerew (still think he has it)

RP
Bob Wickman
Rafael Soriano
Mike Gonzales
Macay McBride
Oscar Villareal
Chad Paronto
Tyler Yates

Waiting in the wings
Greg White (still think he is most likely to start in AAA if Woodward has a decent spring)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Matt Harrison
Jo Jo Reyes
Phil Stockman
Jeoy Devine (will be called up quick if he doesn't win an outright job from paronto or yates)
Blaine Boyer (see above)
Pete Orr
Tony Pena
Fernando Lunar (only if all our other catching options in the minors down to rookie ball are exhausted)
Yunel Escobar
Brandon Jones

Anyone else feel good about next years team barring any major injuries like last year? I mean compare us to the mets and they may have more Offense top to bottom, but the rest of their team seems weak. We appear to be strong everywhere including up minors reserve forces.

.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Jan 18, 2007 2:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Romak

The deal has its merits, but I hate to lose Romak.

I am less keen on Lillibridge, because he is 23 and and yet to play AA.

I hope that this means the Braves are getting ready to make another deal--it makes no sense to trade for Lillibridge, when we already have Esobar.

by Stephen on Jan 18, 2007 6:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

.....and

Andrus, JC Holt, Eric Campbell, etc.
Something's gotta give...

by secondbass on Jan 18, 2007 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Quantity

As we've learned, you can't stake everything on one throw at any position. We've got a number of guys who can play short and that's a good thing. If one develops into a star, we can trade the others. If one flops, it's not the end of the world. And if two develop, we can plug one in at 2B or something. Middle infielders have a huge attritrion rate. And until I see Andrus post an OPS north of .700, I'm not ready to jump on that partcular bandwagon.

As for Lillibridge having not played AA. The guy was drafted in 2005. He has gone through three levels in two years, putting up stats that have an MLE comparable to Renteria. And he stole 53 bases last year.

by mhsiegel14 on Jan 18, 2007 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Prospectus

head over to BP and read what they wrote about Lillibridge...hard not to get excited about the player...look in the free Unfiltered space.

by themurph on Jan 18, 2007 12:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge

If you have a BP subscription, check out Nate Silver's post today. He thinks Lillibridge may be a top-20 prospect.

by mhsiegel14 on Jan 18, 2007 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

reaction of Braves players

I heard Marcus Giles was very upset at the news. He started cursing people out, talking about how Hispanics are the cause of all wars. He had to be taken off of the plane he was on in handcuffs. It is unknown whether he can still participate in the special Olympics he was in route to.

by stefan on Jan 18, 2007 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ridiculous

"I heard Marcus Giles was very upset at the news. He started cursing people out, talking about how Hispanics are the cause of all wars. He had to be taken off of the plane he was on in handcuffs. It is unknown whether he can still participate in the special Olympics he was in route to."

not funny. looks like a comment from a poster on the mlbtraderumors website. get some class. geez.

by ryan c on Jan 18, 2007 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Instant Fallout Reaction

Now that the rest of the details of the trade have been announced, I'm still hesitant to qualify this as a successful deal for Atlanta. As a sports fan in general and a writer who follows the legal, financial, and behind-the-scenes workings of professional sports, I realize that the true measure of an organization is based on the work of the GM and his staff. Obviously, John Schuerholz is the best at what he does; his record speaks for itself. I wasn't ENTIRELY against trading LaRoche - I realized the advantages of dealing a guy from a supposed position of strength who probably reached his peak trade value and is just entering his arbitration years - but I expected Schuerholz to at least acquire a little more for an extremely valuable first baseman who plays Gold Glove caliber defense and can smash 30+ HRs with a .290 AVG and 90+ RBIs. Gonzalez is a decent closer, and he's left handed, but he also comes along with some serious health concerns. Add in the fact that we already traded for a future closer when we got Rafael Soriano from Seattle, and you can see why I'm so disappointed in this swap. Obviously, Atlanta felt comfortable with losing LaRoche because they have Scott Thorman "waiting in the wings". While I foresee LaRoche matching his numbers from last year or even surpassing them playing at PNC Park, Thorman's stats in the minors are a weak prediction of his abilities in the majors especially considering his 128AB, .234 AVG, and only 5 HRs so far. Add in the fact that LaRoche only committed five errors in 1,219 chances last season; that's defensive mastery!. As for the prospects that were exchanged, of course I would have loved to get one of Pittsburgh's young stud starters. I think that would have made it a more even deal and it would have allowed us to deal Kyle Davies for a legitimate leadoff hitter. Apparently, everyone is high on this Brent Lillibridge guy. Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we already have two shortstops in our Top 10 prospects in Andrus and Escobar, not to mention Fontaine? I thought Elvis was the heir apparent to Renteria at SS. Granted, Lillibridge was rated #3 in the Pirates organization by John Sickels, but that's three SS in our Top 10. So this leads me to believe we're turning around and making another swap. Have to. Escobar is the most Major League ready SS, so package him and Saltamacchia for a leadoff hitter who either plays 2nd or LF. Rocco Baldelli would be my first choice. He's locked up for the next four years on a economically friendly contract and can possibly replace Andruw in center after this season. Tampa Bay most likely wants pitching, but I'm still against giving up James or Davies. Overall, I'm lost as to what bigger plan Schuerholz has in store. But maybe I'm being overdramatic, maybe the Braves prove me wrong, maybe in October I'll be singing Gonzalez's praises and reiterating what a genius Schuerholz is...but right now I'm not holding my breath!

~Scott

by ATLBraves4Life on Jan 18, 2007 6:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

John Sickels on Brent Lillibridge

Just found this today on his site, an excerpt from his book on our new acquisition:

"BRENT LILLIBRIDGE, SS, PITTSBURGH PIRATES
BATS: R THROWS: R HT: 5-11 WT: 185 DOB: September 18, 1983

A personal favorite, Brent Lillibridge was drafted in the fourth round in '05, from the University of Washington. I like him a lot. He has more power than most shortstops, plenty of speed, and he works the count well. I think he can hit .280 with above average power and a good on-base percentage at higher levels. Although he is somewhat error-prone at shortstop, he has good range, good hands, and good arm strength. Scouts expect that the errors will settle down in time, and he has enough athleticism and arm strength to play third base and the outfield as well. We need to see what he does in Double-A, but I really like him and I think his transition will go well. GRADE B."

Once again, this begs the question, "What about Elvis Andrus, Yunel Escobar, and possibly Chase Fontaine?" In my opinion, that's too much talent to have at one position, especially considering Atlanta's well documented lack of premium pitching prospects.

~Scott

by ATLBraves4Life on Jan 18, 2007 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

But Again

Andrus, Escobar, Fontaine . . . who knows what we will get? Andrus just put up a .688 OPS in low-A. yeah, the scouts love him. But .688.

Fontaine is in rookie ball and most scouts think his future is at 2B.

Escobar is himself 24 and needs to work on his defense.

I'm not trying to run these guys down. I'm pointing out that none of these guys is a slam dunk at this point. Lillibridge, IMHO, becomes the best SS prospect in the system. And it's just me that thinks that. Nate Silver, John Sickels, Kevin Goldstein and obviously Schuerholz think so too.

IF Escobar maintains his OBP; IF Andrus lives up to his tools; IF Fontaine gets past low-A ball; IF Lillibridge makes the AA transition; then we can worry about having too much talent at one position. But there's no such thing as a sure-fire prospect. Or perhaps you've forgotten Brad Komminsk?

SS is a nice position to have "too much" talent at. You can always move a good-hitting SS to 2B or 3B (as will probabyl happen with Fontaine and/or Escobar; see Betemit, Wilson). But it doesn't go the other way.

by mhsiegel14 on Jan 19, 2007 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs